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2020 | Victoria Australian Farmland Values

Australian Farmland Values - Rural Bank · About the research The Australian Farmland Values report is based on actual farm sales using data collected by the offi cial government

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  • 2020 | Victoria

    AustralianFarmland Values

  • About the researchThe Australian Farmland Values report is based on actual farm sales using data collected by the offi cial government agency in each state and territory, which is then compiled by PriceFinder.

    The Australian Farmland Values report is a guide to market trends of commercial farming property. To that end, where possible, transactions between family members or where one party has compulsory powers are excluded from the analysis. Further, small farms are also excluded to limit the impact of ‘lifestyle farming’ on the results.

    As property settlement periods vary, some 2019 sales will not be captured in this report at the time of publication. The median price for the most recent year is preliminary and will be revised at least annually.

    The values used in this report are based on the total sale price and therefore include the value of capital improvements. The value of water entitlements attached to a land title and therefore sold with the property will be refl ected in the sale price of the land. If water entitlements are sold separately from the land, this value will not be captured in the sale price.

    Median prices in the report are only a guide to market activity. They are not a valuation. Median is used rather than mean as the median is not as readily distorted by unusually high or low prices. However, the median does have limitations. The mix of property sold in a given year can cause the median price to move up or down in a way that is unrelated to a move in value. For example, a higher proportion of lower-value sales can result in a lower median and vice-versa. In areas where there have been very few sales, this effect can be especially pronounced and so in these cases the median should be used with caution and may not be indicative of an actual change in farmland value.

    In order to track median price per hectare growth over a range of time periods the report uses compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Compound annual growth rate is a geometric mean that accounts for compound growth, providing a more accurate measure of an investments return compared to a simple arithmetic mean.

    Farmland sales volume is reported as the number of transactions. Farms can be sold as single or multiple lots, which obscures the view of the number of farms sold, particularly in cases where one farm is sold as multiple lots to multiple buyers. Accordingly, the number of ‘transactions’ should not be interpreted as the number of farms sold and should only be used as a guide to market activity.

    This report is not intended for use as a farm valuation tool. A qualifi ed professional is required to assess the value of a property.

    For PriceFinder terms and conditions visit: www.pricefi nder.com.au/terms-conditions/

    About Rural BankRural Bank is a division of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited and provides exceptional fi nancial services, knowledge and leadership for Australian farmers to grow.

  • Understanding the value of farmland is important to everyone in agribusiness, especially Australia’s farmers.

    The Australian Farmland Values report tells the story of national and regional farmland performance over the past 25 years.

    This report is intended to provide general information on a particular subject or subjects and is not an exhaustive treatment of such subject(s). The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable. Rural Bank, a Division of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited, ABN 11 068 049 178 AFSL/Australian Credit Licence 237879, makes no representation as to or accepts any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of information contained in this report. Any opinions, estimates and projections in this report do not necessarily refl ect the opinions of Rural Bank and are subject to change without notice. Rural Bank has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof in the event that any opinion, forecast or estimate set forth therein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. This report is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in this report does not take into account your personal circumstances and should not be relied upon without consulting your legal, fi nancial, tax or other appropriate professional.

    © Copyright Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd ABN 11 068 049 178 (1452805 –1456138) (04/20)

  • Foreword

    Agriculture is volatile, or so the mythology goes. You only hear about agriculture when it’s booming or facing another challenge or crisis.

    Rural Bank’s Australian Farmland Values 2020 report turns this myth on its head, particularly when you consider our world is grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic, a challenge with the potential to deliver the greatest uncertainty or unknown economic impact since World War II.

    Is agriculture immune or conditioned? History would tell you it is.

    When you remove the noise, agriculture is stable, consistent and an under-recognised source of economic growth. If you know what you are doing and are prepared to see through short-term vagaries and variations, there are rewards to be harvested.

    On average, Australian farmland has delivered compound annual growth of 7.5 per cent over 20 years.

    It’s a remarkable result and it highlights that investing in farmland over the long-term will deliver, through good times and bad.

    We also know that farmland value is only one measure. It certainly does not automatically translate to profi tability, or growth.

    It’s the base asset for Australia’s farming businesses, with unique characteristics, strengths and weaknesses. But in every case, every parcel of land requires smart, capable farmers to turn a profi t.

    Land with consistent access to water has continued to perform far better than land without. Climate risk and reliable rainfall continues to drive investment.

    Farmers are also holding on to their land, with year-on-year transaction volumes falling by 13.2 per cent. What is driving this? Are lower sales volumes driving up price, or are farmers simply optimistic about the future?

    There is certainly no shortage of buyers, happy to invest. Corporates have continued to strongly enter the market, particularly in New South Wales and Queensland.

    As much of the eastern half of Australia emerges from dry conditions and drought, will land continue to be held on to for longer, and what are the implications for traditional farming businesses?

    These are all important questions, requiring discussion.

    As always, Rural Bank is looking to contribute evidence and insight to this conversation, advocating for the agricultural industry.

    In these unprecedented times, the evidence suggests that if you look to agriculture and farmland, it continues to perform well over the long-term – whatever the circumstances.

    Alexandra GartmannCEO, Rural Bank

    4

  • Executive Summary

    Farmland values have been resilient following several years of challenging seasonal conditions. We expect growth in the value of Australian farmland to continue over the long-term as ongoing improvements in Australian agricultural productivity and profi tability fuel strong demand for agricultural assets.

    While factors such as strong commodity prices, a low interest rate environment and tight supply of land support strong demand for farmland in the short-term, this will be tempered by disruptions to global economies. We expect farmland values to continue to grow but at a reduced rate compared to the growth seen in the past six years.

    Across Australia the number of transactions declined 13.2 per cent year-on-year to 7,164. This marks the lowest transaction volume for the analysed period (1995–2019). The number of transactions equates to a total of 6.5 million hectares of land with a combined value of $8.7 billion.

    Farmland values hold particular signifi cance when examined at a localised level. In 2020 Rural Bank has researched trends in 29 regions across the country. The Australian Farmland Values 2020 report draws on more than 262,000 transactions, accounting for 303.9 million hectares of land with a combined value of $159 billion over 25 years.

    Number of transactions (RHS)Median price $/ha (LHS)

    19

    95

    19

    96

    19

    97

    19

    98

    19

    99

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

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    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    20

    13

    20

    14

    20

    15

    20

    16

    20

    17

    20

    18

    20

    19

    $6,000

    $3,000

    $5,000

    $4,000

    16,000

    14,000

    12,000

    10,000

    8,000

    6,000

    4,000

    2,000

    0

    $2,000

    $1,000

    0

    Australia – historic performance

    2019 year-on-year median price growth

    2019 year-on-year transaction

    volume growth

    NSW 17.2% -19.8%

    QLD -0.8% -7.8%

    SA 18.4% -8.3%

    TAS 11.1% -5.8%

    VIC 12.1% -12.9%

    WA 28.2% -4.6%

    NT -53.9% -36.2%

    National 13.5% -13.2%

    5

  • Victoria

    Median price per hectare

    $7,5872019 median price growth

    12.1%Hectares of land traded

    166,215Compound annual growth

    over 20 years

    7.1%

    South West16.7%

    Northern16.1%

    North West31.9%

    Gippsland-5.9%

    Map shows median price movement in 2019.

  • Victoria

    From the fi eld

    “Victoria had its fourth consecutive year of growth in

    median price per hectare in 2019. Contributing to the

    increase in median was a decrease in the number of

    transactions, whilst strong demand remained. North

    West and Gippsland regions experienced the greatest

    declines in transaction volume. Geographical risk

    was a factor that was front of mind, as an increase

    in the need for water security and diversifi cation

    of location increased interest in irrigated and high

    rainfall municipalities. Low interest rates have led to

    a higher number of properties purchased rather than

    leased, these properties were predominately off-

    market transactions between lessee and landowner.

    Considering the current economic environment

    purchasing rather than leasing is expected to continue.”

    Jonathon Hewitt, Rural Bank, Eastern Australia.

    The median price per hectare of farmland in Victoria increased by 12.1 per cent in 2019. This is now the fourth consecutive year of growth, bringing the 10-year compound annual growth rate to 6.8 per cent. Competition remained high as there were a smaller number of transactions in 2019. Whilst a favourable cropping season and stronger livestock prices gave some confi dence to family farms leading to healthier balance sheets allowing for new land purchases. Should higher livestock prices remain, and favourable cropping conditions persist this is expected to continue.

    The total value of Victorian farmland traded in 2019 was approximately $1.05 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2 per cent. Total hectares traded fell 16.2 per cent in 2019, however an increase in the proportion of higher value transactions, especially those above $12,500 per hectare led to growth in the median price per hectare.

    North West Victoria saw the largest year-on-year increase in median price per hectare 31.9 per cent higher. South West and Northern Victoria both continued to see an increase in growth with the median price per hectare 16.7 per cent and 16.1 per cent higher respectively. Whilst Gippsland, following a persistent drought saw a decrease of 5.9 per cent year-on-year. Land close to and in higher rainfall regions was in high demand as diversifying geographical risk was an attraction for buyers.

    There was a 12.9 per cent decrease in the volume of transactions, to 1,464, this kept prices fi rm and heightened competition between buyers. Dry conditions reduced the number

    Number of transactions (RHS)Median price $/ha (LHS)

    $8,000

    $5,000

    $4,000

    $7,000

    $6,000

    3,000

    2,500

    2,000

    1,500

    1,000

    500

    0

    $3,000

    $2,000

    $1,000

    0

    Victoria – historic performance

    19

    95

    19

    96

    19

    97

    19

    98

    19

    99

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    20

    13

    20

    14

    20

    15

    20

    16

    20

    17

    20

    18

    20

    19

    of listings in 2019. However, lower interest rates increased buyer confi dence leading to an increase in the amount of properties bought rather than leased. A trend likely to continue in the coming years.

    7

  • 400

    300

    100

    0

    350

    200

    250

    150

    50

    $0 – 2,500/ha

    Num

    ber o

    f tra

    nsac

    tions

    $2,500 – 5,000/ha $5,000 – 7,500/ha $7,500 –10,000/ha $10,000 –12,500/ha $12,500/ha+

    2019

    2018

    Victoria – transactions by price range

    In 2019, there was a larger proportion of higher valued transactions contributing to the increase in the growth of median price per hectare across the state. The number of transactions greater than $12,500/ha was 7.8 per cent higher than 2018 and the only price range where transaction volume increased.

    The lower the price range the larger the decrease in volume of transactions, following the trend seen in recent years of more high value transactions and fewer low value transactions. In 2019 farmers with healthy balance sheets and large land holdings were

    able to unlock equity to chase additional land hence an increase in higher value transactions.

    This was especially evident in the South West region of the state with increases in transaction volume of 61 per cent and 38 per cent in the $12,000–15,000/ha range and the greater than $15,000/ha range. The South West, in addition to local purchases, also saw an increase in the proportion of investors from the city often out competing local buyers and pushing land values higher.

    Growth in median price per hectare occurred in all parcel sizes, with parcels greater than 150ha experiencing the highest growth of 27.3 per cent. Small to medium sized parcels in the 50–100ha range were also signifi cantly higher 15.5 per cent greater year-on-year.

    The transactions mix was different compared to 2018 as there was a decline for all parcel sizes; however, the percentage of total transactions for each range remained relatively unchanged.

    The decline led to an increase in the competition for farmland in 2019, resulting in a 12.1 per cent increase to the median price per hectare for the state. An increase in cross industry competition also aided the median price per hectare, as high rainfall areas traditionally used for cropping were purchased with the intention of running livestock.

    Performance by land size

    Parcel size (ha)

    Median $/ha No. of transactions

    2019 % change 10yr CAGR Decile 2019 YoY +/-

    30–50 $10,499 3.4% 3.5% 10.0 450 -79

    50–100 $8,167 15.5% 4.3% 10.0 508 -58

    100–150 $5,393 9.5% 6.2% 10.0 234 -24

    150+ $3,491 27.3% 8.6% 10.0 272 -56

    Overall $7,587 12.1% 6.8% 10.0 1,464 -217

    8

  • GippslandVIC

    The median price per hectare in Gippsland decreased by 5.9 per cent in 2019 to $11,002 per hectare. The decrease in 2019 follows two consecutive years of growth of 15.4 and 15.2 per cent. There was a greater proportion of larger parcels of land sold in 2019, these characteristically sell for a lower value per hectare, this was due to a supply shortage in small to medium sized parcels as a result of rural property being held on to. This changed the overall transaction mix and led to a decline in median price per hectare for the region.

    East Gippsland and Bass Coast had the largest declines in median price per hectare both falling 7.5 per cent and 7.4 per cent respectively. Whilst Latrobe and Wellington recorded the highest growth in median price per hectare due to water security offered with some of these properties.

    The volume of transactions dropped in 2019 by 25.7 per cent to 243, drought was a key factor leading to a lower number of listings in the area.

    Number of transactions (RHS)Median price $/ha (LHS)

    $14,000

    $12,000

    $8,000

    $6,000

    $10,000

    700

    600

    500

    300

    100

    400

    200

    0

    $4,000

    $2,000

    0

    Gippsland – historic performance

    19

    95

    19

    96

    19

    97

    19

    98

    19

    99

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

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    20

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    20

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    20

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    20

    14

    20

    15

    20

    16

    20

    17

    20

    18

    20

    19

    From the fi eld

    “Gippsland experienced a supply shortage through 2019 with prolonged drought

    conditions impacting availability. Rural property was tightly held, and lower supply

    resulted in strong demand and fi rmer prices paid for larger landholdings. Despite a

    5.9 per cent decline in the median price across Gippsland, the key irrigation areas

    of the Latrobe and Wellington shires both experienced an increase in property

    prices in response to water security offered by some of these land parcels.”

    Josie Zilm, Rural Bank, Gippsland

    2019 median price growth

    -5.9%

    Hectares of land traded

    18,558

    Compound annual growth over 20 years

    6.3%

    Median price per hectare

    $11,002

    10

  • Transaction volume decreased across all price per hectare ranges in 2019. The most signifi cant drop in volume was for parcels priced between $8,000–12,000/ha, 35 per cent lower than 2018, this equates to 21 fewer transactions. This was particularly evident in the Baw Baw, South Gippsland and Wellington municipalities. Whilst, the volume of transactions priced between $12,000–16,000/ha and greater than $20,000/ha were 28.9 per cent and 34.5 per cent lower respectively.

    An increase in the total share of transaction volume in East Gippsland, which attracts a lower price per hectare compared to other municipalities, contributed to the decline in median price per hectare for the Gippsland region in 2019.

    Median price per hectare declined for smaller parcels of land in 2019. Whilst there was an increase to the median price per hectare for the larger parcels in the range of 70–90ha and greater than 90ha. Historically parcels greater than 90ha have returned the highest compound annual growth rate.

    An increase in the percentage of transactions that were lower in value, particularly in the greater than 90ha range, was a pertinent factor in the median price per hectare decreasing in 2019. There was an increase of 2.5 per cent and 4.4 per cent to the share of total transactions sized 50–70ha and greater than 90ha respectively.

    70

    50

    20

    0

    60

    40

    10

    30

    $0 – 4,000/ha

    Num

    ber o

    f tra

    nsac

    tions

    $4,000 – 8,000/ha $8,000 –12,000/ha $12,000 –16,000/ha $16,000 – 20,000/ha $20,000/ha+

    2019

    2018

    Gippsland – transactions by price range

    Performance by land size

    Parcel size (ha)

    Median $/ha No. of transactions

    2019 % change 10yr CAGR Decile 2019 YoY +/-

    30–50 $13,274 -8.2% 4.4% 9.6 98 -54

    50–70 $9,729 -17.9% 1.8% 8.3 64 -14

    70–90 $9,944 25.3% 5.0% 9.6 25 -11

    90+ $6,906 39.1% 11.8% 10.0 56 -5

    Overall $11,002 -5.9% 5.5% 9.6 243 -84

    11

  • North WestVIC

    The median price per hectare of farmland in North West Victoria increased by 31.9 per cent in 2019 to $3,092 per hectare. This follows a slight decline of 1.9 per cent in 2018, however there has been strong growth in recent years with the median price per hectare increasing 85 per cent over the past fi ve years. Family farms continue to be the main buyers of property as a favourable cropping season and strong livestock prices gave confi dence to large family farms, leading to new land purchases.

    In 2019, the municipalities of Swan Hill and Hindmarsh recorded strong growth in median price per hectare. In contrast, Yarriambiack recorded a decline.

    Transaction volume decreased substantially in 2019, down 21 per cent to 147 transactions, persistent drought particularly in the North West Mallee contributed to the decline.

    Number of transactions (RHS)Median price $/ha (LHS)

    $3,500

    $3,000

    $2,500

    $1,500

    $1,000

    $2,000

    300

    250

    200

    100

    150

    50

    0

    $500

    0

    North West – historic performance

    19

    95

    19

    96

    19

    97

    19

    98

    19

    99

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    20

    13

    20

    14

    20

    15

    20

    16

    20

    17

    20

    18

    20

    19

    From the fi eld

    “Demand for grazing and cropping land in the southern Wimmera and Swan

    Hill area was high in 2019. Family farms remained the major buyers in both the

    Wimmera and Mallee. There were more off market transactions as neighbouring

    farmers came to agreeance on price without going to market. Low interest rates

    and high lease costs are contributing to an increase preference of buying land over

    leasing. Demand is set to remain high in 2020 with anecdotally less supply to the

    market and the expectation of more private sales.”

    Greg Kuchel, Rural Bank, Swan Hill.

    2019 median price growth

    31.9%

    Hectares of land traded

    34,244

    Compound annual growth over 20 years

    7.7%

    Median price per hectare

    $3,092

    12

  • Performance by land size

    Parcel size (ha)

    Median $/ha No. of transactions

    2019 % change 10yr CAGR Decile 2019 YoY +/-

    30–100 $3,413 -7.4% 1.8% 6.7 36 -4

    100–200 $3,089 26.3% 5.3% 10.0 43 -14

    200–300 $3,254 48.3% 9.1% 10.0 37 -12

    300+ $1,710 22.5% 7.6% 10.0 31 -9

    Overall $3,092 31.9% 8.9% 10.0 147 -39

    In 2019, there were fewer low value transactions, which resulted in an increase to the median price per hectare. In contrast to 2018, there was a signifi cant increase in the volume of transactions for land priced between $3,000–4,000/ha and greater than $5,000/ha up 40 per cent and 16 per cent respectively.

    A decrease to the total share of transactions in Mildura, historically a lower value municipality, was a factor that led to a higher median price per hectare. Whilst increased transactions of a higher value in the Hindmarsh and Swan Hill municipalities also contributed to the year-on-year increase in median price per hectare. Demand remains above supply with low interest rates and high leasing costs prompting farmers to buy land rather than lease, where possible.

    The municipalities of Mildura and Horsham reported a decline in transaction volume in 2019. In contrast, volume increased in Swan Hill.

    In 2019, smaller parcel sizes of 30–100ha made up a higher percentage of total transactions. However, the mix of sizes remained relatively consistent with previous years despite a decline in activity across all parcel sizes. Median price per hectare for 200–300ha range increased by 48.3 per cent. In contrast, parcels 30–100ha declined by 7.4 per cent. The 200–300ha range returned the highest ten-year compound annual growth rate.

    60

    40

    0

    50

    20

    30

    10

    $0 – 1,000/ha

    Num

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    f tra

    nsac

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    $1,000 – 2,000/ha $2,000 – 3,000/ha $3,000 – 4,000/ha $4,000 – 5,000/ha $5,000/ha+

    2019

    2018

    North West – transactions by price range

    13

  • NorthernVIC

    The median price per hectare in Northern Victoria increased by 16.1 per cent in 2019 to $7,331. This is the eighth consecutive year of growth for the region as demand for properties remains high and supply remains tight.

    Median price per hectare increased notably in Bendigo and Loddon. Whilst the municipalities of Wodonga and Mansfi eld recorded a decline.

    In 2019, the volume of transactions declined 3.6 per cent to 568. This follows a 15.6 per cent decline in 2018 and is the lowest number of transactions in the analysed period. However, equity from sales of allocated water in the Campaspe shire and Katunga was a factor in the increase in land purchases closer to the Great Dividing Range. Indigo and Mansfi eld both recording an increase to the number of transactions in 2019.

    Number of transactions (RHS)Median price $/ha (LHS)

    $8,000

    $7,000

    $5,000

    $4,000

    $6,000

    1,200

    1,000

    800

    600

    400

    200

    0

    $3,000

    $2,000

    $1,000

    0

    Northern – historic performance

    19

    95

    19

    96

    19

    97

    19

    98

    19

    99

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    20

    13

    20

    14

    20

    15

    20

    16

    20

    17

    20

    18

    20

    19

    From the fi eld

    “Cropping land was in high demand in 2019, particularly in the north of the region

    around Yarrawonga. In the high rainfall grazing regions interest from farmers looking

    to diversify their geographic risk led to an increase in demand. Private off market

    transactions between neighbouring properties were popular across the region, with

    sellers often naming their price. Corporate buying activity centred around Katunga

    where irrigated properties with deep lead bore water were sought after.”

    Kate Hemphill, Rural Bank, Shepparton.

    2019 median price growth

    16.1%

    Hectares of land traded

    57,538

    Compound annual growth over 20 years

    6.9%

    Median price per hectare

    $7,331

    14

  • Performance by land size

    Parcel size (ha)

    Median $/ha No. of transactions

    2019 % change 10yr CAGR Decile 2019 YoY +/-

    30–50 $9,884 3.5% 5.2% 10.0 202 5

    50–100 $7,513 25.1% 6.4% 10.0 196 -16

    100–150 $4,881 9.2% 7.7% 10.0 93 -9

    150+ $3,523 8.5% 9.3% 10.0 77 -1

    Overall $7,331 16.1% 7.0% 10.0 568 -21

    Transaction volume increased signifi cantly at the top end of the market in 2019. The volume of transactions between $8,000–10,000/ha and above $10,000/ha increased 26.2 per cent and 14.4 per cent respectively. Transaction volume in the lower median price per hectare ranges fell by the amount that the top end ranges gained, $0–2,000/ha and $2,000–4,000/ha were 14.3 per cent and 27.9 per cent lower in 2019. Fewer lower value sales and increased high value sales contributed to the median price per hectare increasing.

    Decreases in the total share of transaction in the Gannawarra and Loddon municipalities contributed signifi cantly to a decrease in the number of transactions priced between $2,000–4,000/ha. A lower amount of lower value transactions was a key driver of a higher median price per hectare in 2019 for the Northern region.

    The municipalities of Gannawarra, Mitchell, Mount Alexander, Strathbogie and Wangaratta reported a decline of above 30 per cent to the volume of transactions in 2019.

    The transaction mix remained relatively similar to previous years with fewer transactions in the 50–100ha and 100–150ha parcel sizes, 7.5 per cent and 8.8 per cent lower. In contrast 30–50ha parcels increased 2.5 per cent compared to 2018. Median price per hectare growth was greatest in the 50–100ha range increasing 25.1 per cent. Larger parcels greater than 150ha recorded the highest compound annual growth rate over the past ten years.

    200

    100

    0

    150

    50

    $0 – 2,000/ha

    Num

    ber o

    f tra

    nsac

    tions

    $2,000 – 4,000/ha $4,000 – 6,000/ha $6,000 – 8,000/ha $8,000 –10,000/ha $10,000/ha+

    2019

    2018

    Northern – transactions by price range

    15

  • South WestVIC

    The median price per hectare of farmland in South West Victoria increased by 16.7 per cent in 2019 to $8,649 per hectare. This follows an increase of 13.3 per cent in 2018, an increase in the number of investors from the city often outcompeting local buyers pushed land values higher.

    Median price per hectare recorded strong growth in the municipalities of West Wimmera and Glenelg. In contrast, Hepburn recorded a decline. Areas of high rainfall were sought after especially from farmers outside of the region looking to purchase cropping land with the intention of running livestock.

    Transaction volume was lower in 2019, decreasing by 12.6 per cent to 506. This was driven by high commodity prices for both livestock and grain, resulting in land becoming tightly held as opposed to be offered up for sale. This trend is expected to continue in 2020, further strengthening buyers balance sheets and aiding competition for available land.

    Number of transactions (RHS)Median price $/ha (LHS)

    $10,000

    $9,000

    $7,000

    $8,000

    $5,000

    $4,000

    $6,000

    900

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    $3,000

    $2,000

    $1,000

    0

    South West – historic performance

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    From the fi eld

    “Demand for land in South West Victoria remained high in 2019. Corporate

    investors competed with local buyers resulting in land price growth. Traditional

    cropping land sold to graziers from outside the region looking to take advantage of

    the region’s high rainfall. Buying power was aided by low interest rates and solid

    commodity prices, this trend is expected to continue in 2020.”

    John King, Rural Bank, Colac.

    2019 median price growth

    16.7%

    Hectares of land traded

    55,876

    Compound annual growth over 20 years

    7.8%

    Median price per hectare

    $8,649

    16

  • Performance by land size

    Parcel size (ha)

    Median $/ha No. of transactions

    2019 % change 10yr CAGR Decile 2019 YoY +/-

    30–50 $10,384 18.1% 2.0% 10.0 142 -25

    50–100 $9,275 17.4% 6.5% 10.0 184 -18

    100–150 $7,108 3.3% 7.8% 10.0 88 -7

    150+ $5,672 34.9% 7.7% 10.0 92 -23

    Overall $8,649 16.7% 7.2% 10.0 506 -73

    The transaction mix by price range changed most at the top end of the market in 2019. There was a notable increase of 61.4 per cent in the volume of transactions between $12,000–$15,000/ha and an increase of 38 per cent in the greater than $15,000/ha range. The increase in high value transactions was a key driver of median price per hectare growth in 2019.

    At municipality level, a 55 per cent increase to the number of transactions in Corangamite, a high value municipality, contributed to the 16.7 per cent increase to the median price per hectare for the region. In contrast, transaction volume declined signifi cantly in Ballarat and Moorabool 42.9 per cent and 35.3 per cent lower.

    Median price per hectare increased for every parcel size accompanied by a reduced number of transactions across all sizes. Parcels greater than 150ha recorded the highest growth, up by 34.9 per cent, whilst the 100–150ha range recorded modest growth of 3.3 per cent following a 33 per cent increase in 2018. Historically larger parcel sizes have recorded the highest compound annual growth rate.

    200

    100

    0

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    $0 – 3,000/ha

    Num

    ber o

    f tra

    nsac

    tions

    $3,000 – 6,000/ha $6,000 – 9,000/ha $9,000 – 12,000/ha $12,000 –15,000/ha $15,000/ha+

    2019

    2018

    South West – transactions by price range

    17

  • VIC

    Farmland sales by municipality

    MunicipalityMedian $/ha Number of transactions

    2019 5yr CAGR 10yr CAGR 20yr CAGR 2019 YoY +/-

    Gippsland

    Bass Coast $15,904 5.6% 1.9% 6.4% 12 -6

    Baw Baw $18,650 6.5% 4.6% 5.9% 31 -16

    Cardinia $19,242 -0.2% -0.3% 5.4% 11 -3

    East Gippsland $4,898 3.0% 5.0% 6.3% 57 -1

    Latrobe $14,832 12.9% 2.6% 8.9% 12 -9

    South Gippsland $14,431 5.3% 3.8% 6.5% 62 -18

    Wellington $10,421 3.6% 7.4% 6.9% 58 -31

    Gippsland $11,002 3.1% 5.5% 6.3% 243 -84

    North West

    Buloke $2,471 13.4% 7.5% 6.6% 35 -7

    Hindmarsh $3,632 11.5% 11.4% 8.5% 29 1

    Horsham $6,150 13.7% 15.0% 6.7% 21 -11

    Mildura $1,417 6.0% 4.9% 7.6% 20 -12

    Swan Hill $3,287 21.4% 10.2% 11.9% 21 5

    Yarriambiack $3,413 9.3% 6.2% 6.1% 21 -7

    North West $3,092 12.2% 8.9% 7.6% 147 -39

    Northern

    Alpine $12,812 16.6% 9.5% 7.5% 14 0

    Benalla $8,022 7.4% 7.8% 7.6% 34 -7

    Bendigo $8,431 15.5% 9.4% 8.8% 30 1

    Campaspe $5,448 5.5% 5.1% 5.2% 68 3

    Gannawarra $3,108 7.4% 6.0% 3.0% 26 -14

    Indigo $9,681 8.1% 5.0% 8.2% 31 12

    Loddon $3,637 11.4% 6.4% 5.4% 36 -9

    Mansfield $10,508 7.0% 4.2% 7.3% 25 2

    Mitchell $9,652 12.3% 8.9% 7.3% 19 -14

    Moira $7,371 6.5% 5.6% 3.7% 67 -10

    Mount Alexander $7,403 -0.2% 2.1% 10.2% 14 -13

    Murindindi $8,852 9.9% 7.4% 7.6% 32 6

    Shepparton $7,756 8.5% 4.9% 4.5% 62 2

    Strathbogie $6,138 7.8% 3.2% 6.3% 46 -21

    Towong $6,706 4.7% 11.0% 10.2% 25 -4

    Wangaratta $8,388 10.4% 7.4% 6.9% 34 -23

    Wodonga $8,945 0.5% 5.6% 4.1% 5 1

    Northern $7,331 9.1% 7.0% 6.9% 568 -21

    18

  • MunicipalityMedian $/ha Number of transactions

    2019 5yr CAGR 10yr CAGR 20yr CAGR 2019 YoY +/-

    South West

    Ararat $6,384 8.4% 5.6% 7.4% 26 -10

    Ballarat $13,359 10.2% 6.0% 9.2% 4 -3

    Central Goldfields $6,101 16.1% 17.5% 9.3% 7 -1

    Colac - Otway $11,013 10.2% 5.0% 6.0% 38 -15

    Corangamite $10,749 7.7% 6.4% 7.3% 93 33

    Glenelg $9,670 13.1% 6.1% 8.0% 50 3

    Golden Plains $9,899 16.5% 6.7% 9.3% 27 -6

    Hepburn $8,655 5.8% 4.1% 6.1% 14 4

    Macedon Ranges $15,659 25.2% 7.2% 7.3% 12 2

    Moorabool $11,223 5.9% 5.9% 5.8% 11 -6

    Moyne $10,440 7.1% 2.3% 7.6% 82 17

    Northern Grampians $3,306 9.1% 5.8% 7.3% 34 -3

    Pyrenees $6,212 5.9% 6.9% 7.9% 31 -7

    South Grampians $5,703 7.1% 5.0% 6.8% 36 -13

    Surf Coast $8,846 6.5% 0.8% 6.1% 7 1

    West Wimmera $5,189 18.5% 8.1% 8.3% 34 -10

    South West $8,649 12.1% 7.2% 7.8% 506 -73

    Victoria $7,587 9.1% 6.8% 7.1% 1,464 -217

    CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

    Price information with a small volume of transactions should be used with caution. The median price for municipalities with less than four transactions in 2019 is not reported.

    *Municipalities with no transactions in 2019 have compound annual growth rate for fi ve, ten and twenty years presented using the 2018 median.

    19

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