Australian Cities: Liveable and Sustainable?

Professor Peter NewtonInstitute for Social ResearchSwinburne University of Technology, Melbourne

Presentation to NatStats 2010 ConferenceSydney, 16 September 2010

Session: Sustainable Communities in a Global Context

21st CENTURY ≠ 20th CENTURY:LIVING IN A CROWDED, URBAN WORLD

City Research

InfrastructureThe Urban Age

1900

1.7People(Billion)

% Living in Cities 10%

CitiesGreater than1 Million 16

2007

6.5

50%

450

2050

9.0

75%

600

21st CENTURY SETTLEMENT TREND :THE RISE AND RISE OF THE MEGA-METROPOLITAN REGION

> The nation’s key economic engines generating 75% of national economic activity

(Allen Consulting, 2002)

> Key demographic attractors / absorbers, forecast to accommodate 80% of nation’s additional expected population 2002 – 2011 (Approximately 1.5 out of 1.9 million)

> Key governance challenge

Objectives for Future Australian Cities (COAG, Dec.2009)

“The future strategic planning of cities should ensure that cities are: globally competitive, productive, environmentally sustainable, liveable and socially inclusive and are well placed to meet future challenges and growth”.

COAG Minister’s Meeting, Dec. 2009

A Plethora of City Performance Indicators

City Indicators:

•Productivity

•Sustainability

•Liveability

•Social Inclusion

Measuring Australia’s Progress

Source: ABS (2009)

Model for Delivering Sustainable Urban Development

Source: Newton (2006)

City Liveability Rating (Economist Intelligence Unit)

SOURCE: EIU (2009)

Category 1: Stability (25%) Category 2: Healthcare (20%)

Category 3: Culture & Environment (25%) Category 4: Education (10%)

Category 5: Infrastructure (20%)

Liveability Ratings of Australian Cities 2009

SOURCE: EIU (2009)

Linkages between Liveability and Competitiveness

Source: VCEC (2008)

MEASURING URBAN PERFORMANCE : LIVEABILITY _ SUSTAINABILITY NEXUS

Liveability – Sustainability Nexus ?

Ecological Footprint of Australia’s Capital Cities

City Ecological Footprint(ha per person)

Sydney 6.6

Melbourne 6.4

Brisbane 6.7

Perth 7.4

Adelaide 6.8

Canberra 7.0

Hobart 5.7

Darwin 7.1

Australia 6.5

World 2.2

= 3+ Planet Living

Per Capita Resource Consumption

Source: Turner & Foran (2008)

The Liveability-Sustainability Nexus -- 2010

LiveabilityMean 76.18St.Dev: 17.34

Ecological FootprintMean: 4.39St.Dev: 2.83

Source:Newton(2010)

Liveability – Sustainability Quadrants

Source: Newton (2010)

Liveability – Sustainability Quadrants

Source: Newton (2010)

21st Century Challenge for High Income Societies

Maintain Liveability

AND

Wind Back

Unsustainable Consumption

Pathways to More Sustainable Cities

> 1. Where technological innovation can deliver infrastructure for the sustainable provision of urban resources and services

• (TRANSITIONS, Springer, Dordrecht, 2008)

> 2. Where new planning and design paradigms can underpin a transition to more sustainable urban development

• (TECHNOLOGY, DESIGN & PROCESS INNOVATION IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT, Taylor & Francis, London, 2009)

> 3. Where interventions can be identified to trigger behaviour change among individuals and households to modify their patterns of resource consumption

• (LANDSCAPES OF URBAN CONSUMPTION, CSIRO Publishing, 2011)

Technological Innovation

Urban Environmental Domain

H1 H2 H3

Energy Energy efficiencies in housing and industry; house energy rating

Distributed renewable / low emission energy; methane bridge

Renewables-based solar-hydrogen economy

Water Water-smart appliances Sewer mining; water sensitive urban design

Integrated urban water systems (recycled stormwater, wastewater)

Buildings Check box system for green building design (e.g. LEED)

nBL real-time life cycle sustainability performance assessment during design – via 3D CAD and GIS

Ultra-smart buildings and linked infrastructures; embedded intelligence

Waste Product stewardship ;kerbside recycling

Extensive cradle to cradle production – single enterprise

Eco-industrial clusters as new engines for mega-metro economies

Transport &

Communications

Road pricing; telepresence via broadband communications

Hybrid vehicles; smart land use-transport planning ;high speed rail

Intelligent transport systems (ITS); integrated land use and transport; eco-mobility

Source: Newton, (2007)

3 HORIZONS OF URBAN INNOVATION

H2/3 TRANSITION TO RENEWABLE AND DISTRIBUTED ENERGY

Transition to renewable and distributed energy generation in context of national grid

EXISTING CENTRALISED INDUSTRY NEW DISTRIBUTED INDUSTRY

Transition to Renewable Energy

Source: Melbourne Energy Institute (2010)

Wind Turbines Solar Thermal

Built Environment Innovation

Innovation at Building Scale: Hybrid Buildings?

HYBRID BUILDING / PRECINCT

Energy Efficient Building

ShellEnergy Efficient

AppliancesLocal

Energy (Distributed/Embedd

ed) Generatio

nHybrid

Building / Precinct

Link to National Energy

Grid

Source: Newton & Tucker (2009) Hybrid Buildings.

DOES ENERGY EFFICIENT BUILDING DESIGN MATTER ?

Building Shell

> 2.5 to 5.0 Star =56% reduction in annual

energy use for heating

and cooling

> 5.0 to 7.0 Star =18% reduction in annual

energy use

> 2.5 to 7.0 star =74% reduction in annual

energy use (equivalent

to saving of 48,300 MJ/yr

per detached dwelling)

DO ENERGY EFFICIENT APPLIANCES MATTER ?

Built-in and Plug-in Appliances: Potential Savings with Substitution of Technology/Product

> 92% reduction in annual CO2 from hot water heating with substitution of solar thermal gas boosted for electric storage

> 28% reduction in annual CO2 from plug-in appliances (eg. TVs, refrigerators etc) with substitution of ‘best-of-breed’ for average energy efficiency

> 72% reduction in annual CO2 with shift from all electric (cooktop+oven) to all microwave kitchen

> 89% reduction in annual CO2 with shift from all halogen to all compact fluorescent lighting

LOCAL ENERGY GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES

> Photovoltaics (PV)

> Solar gas boosted thermal

> Wind

> Fuel Cell (gas, solar)

> Gas CCHP (combined cooling, heatand power)

> Ground source heat pump

NET CO2-e EMISSIONS FOR SELECTED SCENARIOS IN TRANSITION TO ZERO CARBON DWELLINGS

Net CO2-e for Hybrid buildings scenarios

47.3

9.5

2.9-0.2

-1.3

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Worst case 2.5star house

New 5 star house DG enhanced 2.5star house

5 star carbonneutral house

7 star zerocarbon house

CO

2-e

(t/y

r/d

wel

lin

g)

Scenarios

Melbourne average (11.1)

Policy Focus Domain Focus

Building Appliances Energy

Innovation in Technology & Design

7+ energy star rated

Smart, low energy appliances

Local renewable energy generation

Household Behaviour Change

Smaller floor space

Fewer appliances,simpler life

Energy conservation strategies; attitudes to environment, local energy systems etc

POLICY ARENASFOR GREENING THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

BEHAVIOUR CHANGE

PROSPECT OF CHANGING ATTITUDES, LIFESTYLES, BEHAVIOUR?

Behaviour Change: Theory and Reality

Barriers to Environmental Action

SOURCE: Living in Melbourne Survey (2009)

Ownership of Problem• Not my responsibility (22.5%)• I rent – its up to my landlord (28.5%)• It won’t help Melbourne’s environment

(19.7%)• No regulation requiring me (27.9%) Information

Shortage/Access• Lack of information (55.4%)• Can’t work out what’s best

(47.9%)Organisational Challenges• Too difficult to organise (54.6%)• Can’t work out what’s best (47.9%)• Difficult to get right trades people

(39.3%)

Time Constraints (Level of Priority)

• Planning to, but haven’t got to it yet (54.4%)

• Lack of time (51.1%)

Financial• Lack of money (68.2%)• Expense not work benefits (52.3%)• I rent – up to the landlord (28.5%)

IN CONCLUSION : DATA NEEDS

WHERE CAN ABS ASSIST ?

• LONGITUDINAL SURVEYS TO SUPPORT EVALUATION OF BEHAVIOUR CHANGE PROGRAMS, PRICING ETC.

•HARMONISING DATA COLLECTIONS FOR STATE OF ENVIRONMENT REPORTING

> gross material flows: 20–25 tonnes/pc/pa

> biodiversity loss: 50% of native species (MSD)

> energy use: 260GJ/pc/pa

> water use: 115kl/pc/pa

> travel: 8,000km/pc/pa car travel

> housing: 235m2 per dwelling

> GHG generation: 27.5 tonnes/pc/pa

> waste generation: approximately 1.6 tonnes/pc/pa

> national ecological footprint: 6.5ha/pc/paan UNSUSTAINABLE pattern of resource consumption

AUSTRALIA’S CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT IS UNSUSTAINABLE – AND REMAINS A CHALLENGE 2006 State of Environment Report : Human Settlements (Newton, 2006)

The nation’s perception of limitless resources is a large obstacle to change

THE MAGIC PUDDING NORMAN LINDSAY

HOW COULD AN AUSTRALIAN STATE OF THE CITIES/STATE OF ENVIRONMENT CAPACITY EMERGE? TOWARDS A COLLABORATIVE NETWORK?

National State of the Cities / SoE ‘Reporting’

State-Level System of Data Assembly/Reporting

Regional-Level System of Data Assembly/Reporting(e.g. Metro region, provincial city region etc.)

Municipal-Level System of Data Collection, Assembly/Reporting

CONTACT Professor Peter W Newton

PHONE + 61 – 3 - 9214 4769

EMAIL pnewton@swin.edu.au

WEB www.swinburne.edu.au

THANK YOU