Upload
kellie-hodge
View
213
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
August 3, 2011
STEERING COMMITTEE MEETING #2
MEETING AGENDA
1. Introductions2. Status Reports3. Demographics Presentation4. Community Engagement—Plan Norwalk by
MindMixer5. Project Team—City Update6. Steering Committee Discussion7. Next Meeting8. Adjourn
STATUS REPORT
The Foundation for the Comprehensive Plan
LOCAL DEMOGRAPHICS
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
Population Projections Population Characteristics Demographic Changes Housing Characteristics Housing Demand Future Land Use Demand
LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS
Population is a major component in the Comprehensive Plan It’s a building block for many land use estimates
Residential units Commercial and office square footage Industrial acres
LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS
The primary source for demographic data for Plan Norwalk is the U.S. Census Bureau, ESRI Business Analyst, CBRE Market Analysis
Since 1980, Norwalk has increased its population by 276.5% from 2,376 to 8,945
Norwalk has been the fastest growing city in Warren County during the same time period
LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTION
Various Methodologies Trend line analysis
1960 to 2010 1970 to 2010 1980 to 2010 2000 to 2010
Cohort survival analysis
LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTION
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1,328 1,7452,676
5,7266,884
8,945
11,623
15,103
19,625
Norwalk Population Estimate 1
LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS
Population Estimate 1 What do the numbers tell us?
Additional 10,680 people over 30 years 8,945 in 2010 growing to 19,625 in 2040
Growth rate: 119% total growth over 30 years
LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTION
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1,328 1,745 2,6765,726 6,884 8,945
15,930
28,370
50,523
Norwalk Population Estimate 2
LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS
Population Estimate 2 What do the numbers tell us?
Additional 41,578 people over 30 years 8,945 in 2010 growing to 50,523 in 2040
Growth rate: 465% total growth over 30 years
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
NATIONAL TRENDS AND LOCAL COMPARISONS
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
Nationally, baby boomers are still relevant! Born between 1946 and 1964 Very large age cohort that impacts
community (60M in that age group nationally)
Some are entering retirement age now Future impacts on housing,
land use, transportation and economy
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
Generation Y – The Boomer babies! Born between 1982 and 1995 Larger generation (80M vs. 60M) nationally
than Baby Boomers Different preferences Plugged-in generation Impacts on housing choices, land
use, transportation and economy
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
Generation X – the in-between generation Born between 1965 and 1976 Smaller generation nationally than Baby
Boomers (51M vs. 60M) The suburban generation; the ‘latchkey’
kids First multi-cultural
generation Highly mobile workforce
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
Norwalk demographics differ from national trends
2010 population characteristics Age 0 – 14 2,244 or 25.1% Gen Y 1,686 or 18.9% Gen X 2,027 or 22.7% Baby Boomers 2,206 or 24.6% Age 65+ 782 or 8.7%
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
Norwalk demographics differ from national trends Small growth in population 65 and older
Norwalk population over 65 is 8.7% (2010) US population over 65 is 13.03% (2010)
Young children (age 0 – 14) make up largest population segment; 25.1%
Children age 0 – 18 make over 30% of Norwalk’s population
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
Average age is increasing in Norwalk, similar to national trend 32.8 years in 2000 34.3 years in 2010
IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND
HOUSING TRENDS AND DEMANDS
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
Household size is decreasing Norwalk, similar to national trend 2.88 in 2000 2.70 in 2010
Norwalk has larger HH size than surrounding communities and State of Iowa in 2010 2.41 in Iowa 2.32 in West Des Moines 2.58 in Ankeny
IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND
Residential unit demand based on population estimate 1 4,151 residential units 3,118 owner occupied 1,033 rental
IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND
Residential unit demand based on population estimate 2 16,162 residential units 12,139 owner occupied 4,023 rental
IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND
Types of housing products Single family Accessory dwelling unites Multi-family Mixed use Assisted living
IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND
IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND
IMPACTS ON HOUSING
IMPACTS ON HOUSING
IMPACTS ON HOUSING
IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND
Plan Norwalk assumptions Existing building trends and supply
71% single family and 21% multi-family 76% owner occupied and 24% rental
Should goals for single family and multi-family change in the future?
What will market demand be for owner occupied versus rental?
IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND
2010 housing unit supply 360 +/- approved units; sf and mf 4 year supply based on population
projection 1 Existing supply will only meet a small
portion of 2040 demand!
IMPACTS ON LAND CONSUMPTION
ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT LAND USE
Projected Land Use by Classification (by percentage) Residential 30.0% Commercial 6.5% Industrial/RR 2.5% Public/semi public 14.8% Public R.O.W. 25.6% Vacant/Ag 20.6% Total 100.0%
IMPACTS ON LAND CONSUMPTION
Population Estimate 1 Residential Land Use 811
acres Commercial Land Use 176
acres Industrial Land Use 68
acres Public Land Use 400
acres ROW 692 acres Other Land Use 557
acresTotal New Development 2,702
acresLand area is equal to 4.2 square miles
IMPACTS ON LAND CONSUMPTION
Population Estimate 2 Residential Land Use 3,156
acres Commercial Land Use 684
acres Industrial Land Use 263
acres Public Land Use 1,557
acres ROW 2,693 acres Other Land Use 2,167
acresTotal New Development
10,520 acresLand area is equal to 16.4 square miles
IMPACTS ON LAND CONSUMPTION
Where should residential land uses be geographically allocated?
Where should other land uses by geographically allocated?
Will this meet future demand? What options should be identified in
Plan Norwalk?
SUMMARY
Population growth and demographic change will impact housing demand over the next 30 years
Current plans, building trends and housing supply may need to change significantly to meet future demands
Increasing demand for housing options with higher densities with more amenities within walking distance
Plan Norwalk by MindMixer
COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT
PLAN NORWALK USER STATISTICS
661 unique visitors 1731 visits 12006 pageviews 6.94 pageviews per visit Average visist lasts 5 min. 34 sec. 47 ideas submitted 198 comments
PLAN NORWALK TOPICS
Community Character Community Health Growth and Housing Diversity Public Safety Stormwater Transportation Diversity
COMMUNITY CHARACTER
12 Ideas Supports Entryway to Norwalk 22 North Avenue 9 Pedestrian Improvements 8 Amphitheater 6
Theme: improve the Hwy. 28 entrance to Norwalk
COMMUNITY HEALTH
5 IdeasSupports Bike trail 12 Community center 6 Walkable neighborhoods 6
Theme: provide connection to the Great Western Bike Trail and create connections to city parks
GROWTH AND HOUSING DIVERSITY
14 Ideas Supports Aquatic center 9 Current pool 4 Senior housing 4 Family fun center 2 (with
59 comments)
Theme: “John’s project”, TIF, taxes and land use policy in Norwalk
PUBLIC SAFETY
13 Ideas Support More cruisers than cameras 17 Lower speed limits on Hwy. 28 7 Ped/bike bridge over Hwy. 28 5
Theme: cameras = “Big Brother” or “cash cow” or legitimate traffic safety control ???
STORMWATER
3 Ideas Supports Regional stormwater detention 8 Land developer’s responsibility 4
Theme: more public awareness and education about stormwater management
TRANSPORTATION DIVERSITY
2 Ideas Supports Bike paths 11 Mass transit 8
Theme: connections to the metro trail system and to DART.
NEXT STEPS
Idea generation phase extended to August 15th
Continue to encourage input on the Plan Norwalk by MindMixer web site
Voting phase will follow and end on August 31st Get out and vote for the best ideas
submitted on the Plan Norwalk by MindMixer web site