Atoll Adaptation Dialogue

Suva, Fiji,

30 April 2019

Ministry of Environment, Maldives

1192 islands 26 natural atolls

2,041 individual reefs

Reef area ~ 4,513 km2

Rich marine biodiversityPopulation 338,434

GDP per capita3846 USD (2013)

Tourism (28.2%)

National Circumstances

Human Development Index : 0.688

Current and Future climate projections

• Base year: 1980-2000

Current and Future Climate Projections

• Temperature: 0.168 - 0.267oC/decade increase

-60

-10

40

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

seal

evel

an

om

aly

(mm

)

Malé

• Sea level: 2.933-3.753 mm per year • Rainfall: 0.02 mm - 2.21 mm per year decrease

-800

-300

200

700

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

rain

fall

ano

mal

ly(m

m)

Malé

Gan

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

29.0

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Tem

per

atu

re o

C

Malé Gan

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

29.0

29.5

30.0

30.5

31.0

Mo

nth

ly m

ean

SST

(ͦC

)• Sea Surface Temperature: 0.11-0.15°C/decade increase

Impacts & Vulnerability to Climate Change

Saltwater intrusion

Flooding

Change in rainfall patterns

Groundwater pollution

Degraded water quality

Waterborne diseases

Loss of vegetation

Food security

Infrastructure damage

Loss of wetlands & waterbodies

More than 44% of human settlement and more than 80% of critical infrastructure in Maldives is within 100m of coast

Economic Vulnerability

• Real GDP growth 1985 - 2010

• Vulnerable to external shocks

Vulnerability to Climate Change

Land Loss, Beach Erosion and Human Settlements

• Inundation modeled under IPCC AR4 climate change scenarios

• Critical infrastructure and human settlement at risk

Vulnerability to Climate Change

Water

• Extreme analysis dry period - observed consecutive dry days highest in north region (max 56 days)

• Often rainwater contaminated with coliform

• Rainwater quality effected by Trans-boundary air pollution (especially in north)

• Even when fresh ground water mostly contaminated by coliform

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

HA HDh Sh N R B Lh K AA ADh V M F Dh Th L GA GDh Gn AdduCity

No

. of

req

ue

st f

or

wat

er

Vulnerability to Climate Change

Coral Reef

• Increase in SST is likely to escalate recurrence of bleaching

• Calcification rates decrease with increasing CO2 levels , e.g. at great barrier reef

Vulnerability to Climate Change

Food security

• High import dependence, vulnerable to impacts at the country of production

• Limited production; lack of land, lack of variety, lack of market and faces risk from extreme events

• Limited storage. Ports and storage exposed to disaster or climate risks

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Crops Seafood Meat Dairy Fruits and vegetables

South East Asia South Asia West Asia Europe Oceania North America South America

Vulnerability to Climate Change

Fisheries

• El Nino years (warmer years), the skipjack catch rates noticeably decreased, while the yellow fin and other tuna species increased

• Decrease pH impact on the food production and availability in the food chain and change physiology of fish

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Skip

jack

tu

na

catc

h p

er u

nit

eff

ort

(kg

/day

)

Vulnerability to Climate ChangeHealth

• Frequency and intensity of extreme events will increase

• Unpredictable rainfall mean unpredictable outbreaks (dengue, scrub typhus)

• Flooding promotes the transmission of pathogens

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mea

n r

epo

rted

den

gue

case

s

Mea

n r

ain

fall

(mm

)

Rainfall Kaafu atollDengue Kaafu atoll 0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

No

. of

rep

ort

ed c

ases

sc

rub

typ

hu

s

2013 2012 2011

Vulnerability to Climate Change - TourismFactor Impacts

Increase in temperature Change and unpredictability in seasons, increase in cooling costs, heat

stress for tourists, infectious disease increases

Increasing frequency and

intensity of extreme events

Increased insurance costs/loss of insurability, business interruption costs

Sea level rise Coastal erosion, loss of beach area, loss of coastal infrastructure, higher

costs to protect and maintain beaches

Sea surface temperatures rise Increased coral bleaching and marine resource and aesthetics degradation

in dive and snorkel destinations

Changes in marine

biodiversity

Shark based diving worth USD 38.6 million (Martin & Hakeem (2006))

Manta watching USD 8.1 million per year Anderson et al. (2011)

Loss of natural marine attractions and species, loss in revenue

Impact of Mitigation action Increases the financial burden on resort developers and operators and cost

of tourism product increases

Adaptation – Land Loss

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Tetrapod Breakwaters

Sand cement bags (unplastered) breakwater

Sand cement bags breakwater

Rock boulders breakwater

Sand cement bags (unplastered) seawall

Sheet piled seawall

Geotextile bags breakwater

Sand cement bags seawall

Rock boulders seawall

Coral mound breakwater

Quay wall

Sand Cement bags groynes

Sand Cement bag revetment

S-Block revetment

Coral mound seawall

Coral mound groynes

Concrete filled barrel seawall

Jumbobag seawall

USD (2012 equivalent) per linear metre

20 year life time cost Base Price

complete protection of all inhabited islands would

cost approx. USD 8.8 billion (MEE 2015)

Coastal erosion – major challenge

Costal protection structures: costly!

Soft engineering

HulhmaleGdh.Thinadhoo piolet project (ICCR)

Nature based solutions?

• Does it work in our islands given the urgency, frequency and magnitude of the problem.

Adaptation - Water

• Currently moving towards an integrated water resources management (IWRM)

• Key components includes • Ground water protection

• Rainwater harvesting and storage

• Waste and storm water management

• And desalinated water to supplement the natural resources

• Piloted in 6 islands at different regions of the Maldives

• Increase in water storage

Adaptation – Coral Reef• Coral Reef Monitoring

• national coral reef monitoring program• A Coral Reef Monitoring Framework was

established to support this national coral reef monitoring program

• measurement of physical oceanographic properties e.g. SST initiated

• Coral Reef Valuation• marine fishery in the Maldives is valued more

thanUSD 50 million per annum

• Marine Protected Areas • economic benefits of these MPAs outweighs the

cost of restricting the development activities

• Coral reef restoration• facilitate and accelerate coral reef growth to

achieve its former glory

Adaptation – Food security• Increased local production and reduce import

dependency• Greenhouse auto-pot systems (integrated farming)

• Increasing the commercial potential

• Improve fish finding and fish harvesting and handling.

• Establish aquaculture/mariculture as an alternative.

• Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) was introduced in 2012 that enhances security of fishermen

• Experiment new and alternative species and breeding / handling methods for live bait.

• Integrated reef fishery management

Adaptation - Health

• Public Health Surveillance• Integrated disease surveillance system (SIDAS)

was established throughout the country

• Control of vector borne disease• ‘Mosquito Control Regulations’ by the government

in 2007.

• National Public Health Protection Act (7/2012)

• Access to health care• Universal social health insurance schemes -

Aasanda

• Primary level care is available in all inhabited islands

Adaptation - Tourism

• Tourism operations in Maldives are intimately connected to other sectors

• Support community-based adaptation projects in tourism-associated communities.

• IWRM facility in the island of B. Maalhos

• Glass bottling plant established at the island to provide water to resort

• Climate proof infrastructures - waste to energy (food waste) piloted in Chaayaa Lagoon Hakuraa Huraa resort by compact bio gas system.

• Market-based risk financing mechanisms (such as weather index insurance)

Thank you