AST Senior Review Major Recommendationssites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/bpasite/... · Budget Scenarios, FY 2011 -2016 Four sample scenarios for FY2016 (FY16 $$) 0% per year

NSF MPS/AST

BPA MeetingApril 23, 2010

Jim UlvestadDivision Director, MPS/AST

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Outline

Science and Programmatic Accomplishments Facilities Budget Outlook and Astro2010 Issues and Challenges

4/23/2010 BPA-MPS/AST

Programmatic Accomplishments New Division Director, Jim Ulvestad

Deputy D.D. position still unfilled

Program officer staff nearing full allocation Short-handed to meet new facility challenges

ATST Record of Decision NAIC competition solicitation to be released by

end of April New activity: Enhancing Access to Radio

Spectrum34/23/2010 BPA-MPS/AST

Storm Clouds over Titan

Gemini-North adaptive optics image of Titan at 2 microns

First clouds over tropical region in 8 yr

Liquid methane rainstorm?

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0.8 arcsec


New Rotating Radio Transient

GBT Pulsar Search Collaboratory

High school student Lucas Bolyard found one of ~30 known rotating radio transients Neutron stars with

sporadic pulsation


Image credit: Chuck Kennedy, the White House

Shredded Companions of M31

Guhathakurta et al. surveyed red giants with Subaru, spectroscopic follow-up with Keck II Two coherent tidal

streams to NW of M31

Andromeda growing with dwarf galaxy cannibalism


Image credit: Mikito Tanaka, Tohoku University, and Subaru Observatory

Facilities

Detailed information is provided in backup slides for future reference or questions

4/23/2010 7BPA-MPS/AST

Facilities-1 ALMA

Proposal for 4 yr O&M received New North American Project Manager European antennas behind schedule; aggressive

catch-up efforts

EVLA: New correlator on line, shared risk observing under way

ATST: Record of Decision signed Ramp up to replace current NSO facilities


Facilities-2 Gemini

UK will withdraw at end of 2012 Budget and partnership reworks under way

NAIC/Arecibo Recompetition solicitation out this month Funding decrease and shift from AST-dominated

NOAO Dark energy survey at CTIO starts in 2012 TSIP ongoing; ReSTAR post-2010 under discussion


Budget Outlook & Astro2010

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FY 2011 AST Budget Request AST Total: $251.8M (2.5% increase over FY 2010 current plan)

Facilities: $141 M (56% of total) Gemini - $19.6 M NAIC - $6.0 M (AST decrease from $8.4, also $3.0M AGS) NOAO - $28.3 M (plus TSIP $5.0M) NSO - $9.5 M NRAO - $44.4 M (down from $49.5 M; end EVLA construction) ALMA Op $23.5 M UROs - $10 M

Research and Education Grants: $111 M (44% of total) Roughly $46M for AAG; $38 M for instrumentation; $25 M for special programs (AAPF, GRF, CAREER, REU,

Cyberinfrastructure, NSF-wide, etc)


AST Community

From 1990 to 2006, number of AAS full members increased ~33%, but AST proposal pressure increased ~150%

124/23/2010 BPA-MPS/AST

AAS members

20061989

6000

4000

2000

Full members

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Budget Outlook? Administration, congressional support for NSF budget

doubling over 10 years. How will AST fare in this growth?

Must accommodate additional ALMA ramp-up of ~$10-15M Traditional AST strengths do not align well with current

Administration priorities: “Green” energy Climate change Short term economic recovery

FY2011 budget request gives MPS a 4.3% increase relative to FY 2010 current plan, compared to 8.0% NSF-wide AST (2.5%) and PHY (2.8%) were two lowest MPS divisions


Budget Scenarios, FY 2011-2016

Four sample scenarios for FY2016 (FY16 $$) 0% per year increase; flat discretionary spending. FY

2016 budget=$252M 2.5% per year increase; consistent with FY 2011

request, near inflation. FY 2016 budget=$286M 4.5% per year increase; near MPS average, slightly

above inflation. FY 2016=$314M 7.0% per year increase; 10-yr doubling. FY

2016=$353M

144/23/2010 BPA-MPS/AST

Potential Spending Increases Potential (FY16-FY11) differences are quantized

in units of $30M-$40M Predicted facilities increase: $32M 5%/yr individual investigator increase: $31M 10%/yr individual investigator increase: $68M

Possible MREFC operations in FY17-FY18 50%-75% LSST operations: $20-30M 50% GSMT ops (or 25% each for two): ~$40M

Goal: Accommodate up to 5 quanta of increase, totaling $160M

154/23/2010 BPA-MPS/AST

Budget Shortfalls Relative to Desires

Increase Δ (2016-2011) Available Comment0%/yr $0.0 ($160M) 0/5 possible2.5%/yr $34M ($126M) 1/5 possible4.5% /yr $62M ($98M) 2/5 possible7.0%/yr $101M ($59M) 3/5 possible

164/23/2010 BPA-MPS/AST

Sample Choices in Budget Scenarios

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At 7.0%/yr increase, can start GSMT and LSST ops, and increase grants by 5%/yr, only by substantial divestiture of operating facilities

At 4.5%/yr, can start GSMT and LSST ops only by flat-funding grants and significant facility divestiture

At 2.5%/yr, can start ops for one of GSMT and LSST only by flat-funding grants and divesting facilities


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FY2011 FY2016

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AST Budget Scenarios

Midsize projects

Grants

Facilities

Grants +5%

Grants +10%

GSMT ops

LSST ops

0%

3.5%

AST annual growth of 7%

Fac. growth

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Primary Issues & Concerns

Long-term funding trends for AST Balance of facilities (“missions”) and grants

Low grants success rate—increasing demand/astronomer Will Astro2010 recommendations be outside funding envelope?

Competitiveness of US in ground-based optical astronomy Federal investment strategy for GSMT and LSST? Balance among large/medium/small telescopes

MREFC investments, and operating funds Rebalancing of Gemini partnership, operational model Near- and mid-term status of Arecibo, VLBA Lack of funding line for mid-size “projects” Long-term facility stewardship (infrastructure maintenance)


Overall AST Status Core priorities supported at healthy levels

ARRA funding is providing benefits to the community and to facility infrastructure

ALMA and EVLA are succeeding ATST is poised for construction

AST is preparing to respond to Astro2010 Strategic planning under way for most likely options

We expect AST to share in a healthy growth of basic research in the U.S. Difficult choices will be needed

204/23/2010 BPA-MPS/AST

Backups Follow

214/23/2010 BPA-MPS/AST

ALMA-1

Major milestone of “closure phase” achieved 3rd ALMA antenna moved to high-altitude

(16,500’) site in November, followed a few days later by phase closure Significant demonstration of hardware and software

Commissioning and Science Verification phase started in Jan 2010

Six (of 66) antennas (one Japanese, five North American) now accepted 23 antennas at various stages of assembly

and test in Chile (12 NA, 2 European, 4 Japanese)

224/23/2010 BPA-MPS/AST

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ALMA Antenna Assembly Line


ALMA-2 New NA Project Manager—Mark McKinnon replaced Adrian Russell in March Challenges/risks:

Schedule remains very tight Production of receivers on critical path to Early Science (forecast 2011Q3) and

antennas on critical path to completion First European antenna delayed by another 3 months, pushes current forecast of completion

into 2013

Cost-to-complete assessment due to conclude in April; contingency expected to be at acceptable level (~15% of CtC)

Proposal for next 4 years of NSF-funded ALMA operations submitted by AUI/NRAO in March External review mid-2010 NSB action in early 2011

244/23/2010 BPA-MPS/AST

EVLA Old correlator turned off in January; first science with new

correlator occurred on schedule in early March Detected 3.3 GHz CH line at z=0.886, for study of evolution of

fundamental physical constants 27-antenna fringes this month

Currently mix of Open Shared Risk Observing and science commissioning

Five visiting scientists present in Socorro in Resident Shared Risk Observing program

Project contingency remains at 30% of cost to complete; on schedule for completion in 2012 EVLA dedication scheduled for August 12, 2010

Bob Dickman is interim project manager, replacing Mark McKinnon (to ALMA)

254/23/2010 BPA-MPS/AST

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ATST Environmental Review and Permitting process for site:

Final EIS submitted to EPA on July 24, 2009; published on July 31. Application for building permit (state of Hawaii process) underway;

University of Hawaii leads. More than thirty National Historic Preservation Act Section 106

consultations resulted in fully-executed programmatic agreement detailing the required mitigation.

Record of Decision signed by the NSF Director, Arden Bement on December 3, 2009. This completes the Federal compliance requirements. (But not the mitigation!)

First funding action for $146M (ARRA) awarded on January 15, 2010. MREFC funding for $20M (FY09+10 MREFC) followed by the end of February.


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ATST


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The Gemini ObservatoryThe Gemini Observatory consists of twin 8-meter optical/infrared telescopes located on two of the world’s best sites for observing the universe. Together these telescopes can access the entire sky.

“Two telescopes, one observatory.”

Gemini South – Cerro Pachon, Chile

Gemini North – Mauna Kea, HI4/23/2010 BPA-MPS/AST

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Gemini Gemini was built and is funded by a partnership of 7 countries including the

United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Chile, Australia, Brazil and Argentina. The U.S. is the majority partner (50.4%).

NSF is Executive Agency, AURA is managing entity The UK Science & Technology Facilities Council officially communicated

their decision to withdraw on 22 December 2009. The departure of the UK will result in a ~25% cut in the annual Gemini

M&O and instrumentation budget. Other partners cannot yet commit to funding levels post-2012.

The Board instructed the observatory to prepare plans for a 7-10% cut per annum in 2011-2013 (inclusive). Plans must include consideration of operational model, staffing make-up, etc.


http://www.gemini.edu/index.php?q=node/12�

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National Astronomy and Ionosphere Center (NAIC)

Recommendation to ramp budget down to $8M by 2010, and to a level not to exceed half of the expected operational cost in years following. Seek non-AST support to maintain operations or closure. NSF Atmospheric and GeospaceSciences (AGS) will be increasing contribution to operations

NSF (AST, AGS) will compete the next cooperative agreement for the management and operation of NAIC. Program solicitation in the NSF clearance process, expected out in

late April; full proposals due 5-6 months following publication. Expected to lead to the award of a single, five-year cooperative

agreement for the management and operation of NAIC for FY 2011-2015.

NASA putting in $2M in FY10 for NEO studies


NOAO Dark Energy Survey from CTIO 4m planned to

start in 2012 100 nights/yr for 5 yr, using wide-field camera built

by DOE

Large proposal letter of intent for “Big Boss” on KPNO 4m Earliest start of observing is in 2014

TSIP nights on private telescopes continuing Post-2010 ReSTAR plan under consideration by

NSF4/23/2010 31BPA-MPS/AST

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FY2009 Spending(including American Reinvestment and

Recovery Act, ARRA)


NSF MPS/AST�OutlineProgrammatic AccomplishmentsStorm Clouds over TitanNew Rotating Radio TransientShredded Companions of M31FacilitiesFacilities-1Facilities-2Budget Outlook & Astro2010FY 2011 AST Budget Request AST CommunityBudget Outlook? Budget Scenarios, FY 2011-2016Potential Spending IncreasesBudget Shortfalls Relative to DesiresSample Choices in Budget ScenariosSlide Number 18Primary Issues & ConcernsOverall AST StatusBackups FollowALMA-1ALMA Antenna Assembly LineALMA-2EVLAATSTATSTThe Gemini ObservatoryGeminiNational Astronomy and Ionosphere Center (NAIC)NOAOFY2009 Spending�(including American Reinvestment and Recovery Act, ARRA)

Documents

AST Senior Review Major Recommendationssites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/bpasite/... · Budget Scenarios, FY 2011 -2016 Four sample scenarios for FY2016 (FY16 $$) 0% per year