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Assisted Living 2019 Market for care properties in transition Published September 2019

Assisted Living 2019 - JLL · 2019. 11. 21. · Assisted Living 2019 | September 2019 2 As a result of demographic trends and changing life plans, the residential market is becoming

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Page 1: Assisted Living 2019 - JLL · 2019. 11. 21. · Assisted Living 2019 | September 2019 2 As a result of demographic trends and changing life plans, the residential market is becoming

Assisted Living 2019

Market for care properties in transition

Published September 2019

Page 2: Assisted Living 2019 - JLL · 2019. 11. 21. · Assisted Living 2019 | September 2019 2 As a result of demographic trends and changing life plans, the residential market is becoming

Assisted Living 2019 | September 2019 2

As a result of demographic trends and changing life plans, the residential market is becoming ever more differentiated. For example, the number of single-person households in Ger-many will rise by some 2 million to nearly 19 million by 2035. The reasons are, among others, the ever-increasing life ex-pectancy and aging of society. The number of people over 70 years old will grow by a third from the current 13 million by 2035. The proportion of the overall population represented by people over 85 will increase by up to 50% by 20351 – and both factors will continue to increase thereafter.

Given that individual age cohorts also represent different consumer groups characterised by particular lifestyle con-cepts and ideas as well as by income and living preferences, their requirements of residential property are also very different. With advancing age, issues such as accessibility, assistance, support and care become more central to the choice of where to live and in what type of property.

Continuing from last year’s detailed JLL report2 on “Care Homes in Germany”, the focus in this report is a short up-date on the care home market. This year, the assisted living sector has been added. Given that both demand (demographic change and preferences in living and care) and supply (existing and planned) are regionally very diffe-rent, it is necessary in this case to take a differentiated view. In the maps in this report, the underlying detailed in-formation is shown aggregated by administrative district. Since the available data for the assisted living sector is still at an early stage, the borders to other forms of residential property are blurred and the market is still very lacking in transparency, the information on this sector is shown for Germany as a whole.

Germany is ageing - how people want to live is changing and putting the supply side under pressure

Assisted Living 2019 | September 2019 2

An ageing society lives differently

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Turning this into reality often fails because the existing own home (or the relatives’ home) does not meet the needs of senior citizens or those requiring care. In many cases, relatives do not take on the required care burden. If a mobile care provider is out of the question or is rejected, and there is in addition an objection to residential care in a care home (perhaps due to the expectation of reduced independence or of inadequate support or leisure activities), the choice increasingly falls on the alternative of assisted living.

How people want to live in old age

Many people take this decision at a time in their lives when they do not as yet have any requirement for care and when they are, for example, more open to making new contacts and forming new friendships. By contrast, the move to a care home often does not happen until there is no longer an alternative. For that reason, it is hardly surprising that assisted living is becoming increasingly popular.

Multiple selections possible Date: 2018Source: TK-Meinungspuls Pflege, Techniker Krankenkasse 2018

Most people want to live for as long as possible in their own home (more precisely: in their current house or flat) or at least in an environment with privacy and be cared for there if necessary3:

Where would you like to be cared for?Results of a survey

83%

59%

48%

37%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

In your own home In a retirement community With relatives In a care home

Assisted living is gaining a higher profileWhere in the past assisted living was often an additional service offered by care homes, the various concepts of this form of accommodation and care are becoming more individual and more innovative. Assisted living is now the second most common form of specialist residential property after care homes. We expect that the number of facilities and apartments will continue to grow.

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Assisted Living 2019 | September 2019 4

The term “assisted (senior) living” has no legal status. Correspondingly, there are no uniform laws or mandatory quality standards4. The idea behind this form of living is that people can continue to live their previous lives for as long as possible – depending on location, amenities and available support services, possibly even more independently than before. Added to that is comfort and the feeling of security that comes with being able to call on care services ranging all the way to complex medical treatment. Nevertheless – and perhaps in contrast to what one might expect from the term “assisted” living – there is no round-the-clock support. Facilities are more likely to offer as a basic package a reception with advisory service, a janitor service and an emergency call system, all paid for by the residents. In addition, the residents receive help such as laundry, shopping or companionship services, cleaning or cooking, together with care services which can be booked as optional services if required.

One in three assisted living facilities has an on-site day-care facility5. Facilities often also offer communal (leisure) activities to encourage social contact and participation. There are communal spaces and in some cases a cafeteria, a library or wellness areas. Hairdressers, physiotherapists and further services are sometimes also on site. Ideally, the facilities are located in well-connected urban locations with doctors, pharmacies, shopping opportunities and so on.

Rent and service charges are higher than in the open rental market, as the properties are barrier-free and adapted for senior citizens. The costs of the communal areas are also shared pro rata. There is also usually an obligatory flat fee for support, which – for basic services – is on average around €100 per person per month. In individual cases, however, these can also be four-figure sums6. Besides the more common rented facilities7, there are also facilities where apartments can be purchased.

Living autonomously with support as required:Assisted living facilities, which are generally designed to be barrier-free, provide communal facilities as well as apartments. Residents can also use support services and take part in leisure activities. This guarantees the private sphere and control over the living accommodation but there are possibilities to participate in social activities and make a contribution. To the extent that care is required, both relatives and professional providers can play a role.

The concept of assisted living: independence with support

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Assisted living facilities can be found in existing residential complexes, in multi-generational residential buildings, as stand-alone properties or in retirement and care homes. In some cases, day or night care or outpatient care services are also integrated. There are also operators who make their support services available to external users and so open up the facilities, for example for the neighbourhood and the local district. Overall, there is a very broad range of concepts, sizes, amenities and services (sometimes within a single facility), and it is possible to combine various different forms of living, support and care.

The range of providers is correspondingly diverse. In terms of ownership, the majority, with 63%, come from the non-profit sector. 29% are private-sector and 5% local authority owned8. Some providers position their facilities as a completely independent product, deliberately distinct from other forms of living or care. Others view them as potentially temporary solutions, up to the point where they are no longer able to guarantee the appropriate level of support and care, and a move to a care home becomes necessary. Not least for this reason, many care homes supplement their offering with assisted living.

The number of homes that have a (residential) retirement home or assisted living element as part of their organisation has been rising for years. Between 2007 and 2017, growth stood at 19%. Overall, the number of assisted living units in both the outpatient (assisted living) sector and the inpatient sector (care homes under the provisions of the SGB XI regulations9) is growing. In many cases, properties with other uses are converted into care facilities for this purpose: among the property types that are in principle suitable for conversion to assisted living facilities are hotels and student housing, as well as office and school buildings or former barracks or prisons. However, essential elements such as construction, floor plans and external areas must fulfil certain criteria.

Conversely, the potential for alternative uses for intelligently designed assisted living facilities such as hotels, residential or healthcare facilities is high, although it is limited or non-existent for other uses. The average size10 of assisted living facilities is around 50 units, whereby the average size of the individual units has increased in recent years. The average size of studio apartments is now around 35 sqm, and 54 sqm for two-room apartments.

Various concepts and organisational form in assisted living:

Independent providers:The residential property owner provides apartments suitable for senior citizens, with other services provided by a care company.

Self-sufficiency: Motivated senior citizens come together to organise the apartments and all related services on their own initiative.

“Retirement residences”:Accommodation and care from a single provider.

Source: www.krankenkassenzentrale.de

Multi-faceted offerings

The supply of living and care concepts is being increased, …

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Care homes Assisted living

Rental of beds or rooms Rental of flats or apartments

No or limited ability to use own furniture Own furniture possible

Self-sufficiency usually not intended Apartments usually have their own fully equipped kitchens

The home determines the daily routine

The resident lives independently and uses only the services he or she chooses;Care and support up to full-time care for bed-ridden residents can (depending on the provider) be provided in the resident’s own apartment;The resident is free to choose his or her own service providers

According to the German Social Security Code (SGB XI), patients in need of care are looked after by a trained specialist nurse with permanent responsibility

Free choice of care provider, e.g. by a mobile care service. Possibility that no care service is used

The home makes the “rules” The resident makes the “rules” in his or her own apartment

Required standards are defined by law There are no legal regulations, the term “assisted living” has no legal status

Supervision is carried out by authorities or organisations appointed by them

Compliance with quality norms can be certified by independent organisations

Source: www.solvida-care.com, www.sozialgesetzbuch-sgb.de

Differences between care homes and assisted living:

In principle, long-term care insurance covers certain costs, provided the requirement is there. To the extent that the facility fulfils the requirements of a residential care home, these are costs for full-time inpatient care; in other cases, these are care allowances or non-financial support. If the apartment is rented, it is possible to apply for housing benefit if income is insufficient. In the case of publicly subsidised housing, it is possible or even obligatory to obtain the necessary documentation showing eligibility. Under certain circumstances, it is also possible to obtain support from the social security authorities or health insurance.

Overall, assisted living is much less regulated than residential care facilities. In the case of outpatient care – in contrast with full-time residential care – more care costs

can be claimed under care insurance for various services (e.g. short-term care, day-care, etc.), as well as other subsidies that can be accessed. The basis for financial support is the Social Security legislation (SGB XI, 11th Social Security Act on Care Insurance). Alongside initial funding [Anschubfinanzierung], these include subsidies for adaptations to living accommodation. In addition, there may be subsidies that are specific to individual federal states and support from local authorities. This framework is also likely to fuel the powerful growth of assisted living. Besides the advantages described above, another driver of demand from the point of view of future residents is the fact that the costs they have to finance themselves (the care costs not covered by care insurance) are generally much lower in comparison with residential care.

Financial support possible from various sources

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Although the population in some regions of Germany is shrinking overall, it is possible for the proportion and the absolute number of senior citizens and care-dependent people there to increase at the same time. This has corresponding implications for the care infrastructure required in such “ageing locations”. Both the number of care-dependent people and the care ratio (the proportion of care-dependent people in the relevant population group) were, in places, significantly higher at the end of 201711 compared to 2015. A long-term comparison shows a rise of some 50% to the current 4.1%. In other words, 4.1% of the German population is care-dependent. This already affects one in four people 75 or over and more than one in three people 80 or over. According to a study12 by the Scientific Institute of the AOK (WIdO), the number of care-dependent patients covered by statutory care insurance alone who use outpatient care will increase by around 50% by 2050, while the number needing residential care will increase by 74% over the same period.

Care patients covered by statutory care insuranceOutpatient versus residential

Depending on which scenario is used13, the total number of people requiring care in Germany will rise to nearly 5 million in the next 20 years and will be close to 6 million by 2050.

People requiring careIn the next 20 years

1,538

2,905

698 780

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2009 2018

In Tsd. = 000’s

Outpatient Residential

+89%

+ 12%

Figures for patients receiving support from private mandatory care insurance are only available up to the end of 2017: these show 160,000 people in outpatient care and 54,000 in residential care. As at July 2019.Source: Federal Health Ministry

Need for care to grow massively by 2050

Sources: destatis: Pflegestatistik 2017, Pflege im Rahmen der Pflegever-sicherung - Deutschlandergebnisse; destatis: Bevölkerung Deutschland 2060, as at: 2019.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

million

3.5 million

4.8 million

On the supply side, the number of places in care homes has risen since 2007 from 799,000 (of which 766,000 were full-time residential care places) to 952,000 (877,000 full-time residential care places) at the end of 2017. Over the same period, occupancy rose from 87.6% to 90.4%. While the actual number of patients in full-time residential care in care homes rose from 783,000 in 2015 to 818,000 in 2017, the percentage of such patients fell from 27% to 24%. The reason for the increased proportion of outpatient care is probably the greatly increased availability – in particular the number of mobile care providers, which recently has continued to rise strongly. While their numbers showed constant low growth of 18% overall between 2009 and 2017, they grew by 9% between 2017 and 2019, a consequence of the Care Support Act prioritising outpatient over residential care14.

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Assisted Living 2019 | September 2019 8

Today, around 15,300 care services look after 1.5 million patients. The sheer size of supply has therefore been significantly increased in a relatively short time (also for care in the home), which is naturally not possible for care homes – if only against the background of changes in regulations that forced many existing homes to reduce the number of beds.

Meanwhile, care services are offering an ever-broader range of support in addition to care in the home, particularly in combination with other offerings such as living communities, day-care and assisted living units.While this strategy promises further growth for mobile care providers, the growing diversity of services on offer gives older people the possibility of more individualised and, as a result of the increasing availability, more local and more easily accessible forms of living and care. From the point of view of the care homes, there is a clear corresponding trend that residents are tending to move in later, because they can be cared for in their own home for longer – meaning that residents on average need a significantly higher degree of care. Together with the growing shortage of staff, this is increasingly a challenge for operators.

… but there are significant shortages in some areas

Full-time residential care places per 1,000 inhabitants over 80 years of age

in absolute numbers

< 130

130 < 160

160 < 190

190 < 240

>= 240

Source: JLL, PM Pflegemarkt GmbH, BBSR, destatis

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At a regional level, there are clear trends in the supply of full-time residential care places: the greatest supply of full-time residential care places per 1,000 inhabitants over 80 is in northern Germany. In addition, supply is especially high in cities where there is a markedly lower number of places in some of the surrounding areas. In these regions, supply is therefore concentrated in highly centralised cities with a

Source: BBSR, PM Pflegemarkt GmbH, destatis

Care requirement per care place

< 0,7

0,7 < 0,9

0,9 < 1,1

1,1 <1,3

>= 1,3

(relatively) high population compared with their sparsely populated surrounding areas. In case of doubt, investors are likely to focus on the central locations. At the same time, there are of course no “hard borders” between a city and its surrounding administrative area, either for inhabitants or employees. There is also movement between administrative areas.

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Construction activity is mostly in Saxony and western Germany, and mainly in regions where the number of care-dependent patients exceeds the number of full-time residential care places.

The Top 5* at district level

Under construction City or district Federal state

352 LK Vogtlandkreis Sachsen

304 LK Rhein-Neckar-Kreis Baden-Württemberg

286 LK Karlsruhe Baden-Württemberg

254 LK Unna Nordrhein-Westfalen

240 LK Recklinghausen Nordrhein-Westfalen

*Based on number of full-time residential care places under construction

Source: PM Pflegemarkt

The picture at district level is the same: the cities and administrative districts with the greatest number of care places currently under construction are in the regions listed above.

Among other factors, population projections by age group at district level are of central importance in enabling investors and operators to estimate the potential future demand for care places in all cities and administrative areas. The forecast number of care places required is especially high in regions where the number of full-time residential care places per 1,000 inhabitants over 80 is already currently relatively low (see map above). However, the growth in the number of care-dependent patients is different across cities and administrative areas depending on the structure of the population and on migration, meaning that alongside the status quo, it is essential to take regional forecasts into account.

Source: PM Pflegemarkt

Care homes under construction and in planning

under construction

in planning

B

P

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State subsidies for the modification of existing residential units to make them suitable for senior citizens are a long way from catching up with the demand. For this reason, the supply of different forms of living which are suitable for the old and those needing care urgently needs to grow and become more differentiated. Given that there are many varying concepts and ever more combinations and overlaps between different forms of living and care in the assisted living sector, and no uniform or legal definition, it is difficult to measure supply and demand. There are around 6,300 assisted living15 facilities in Germany and the number is increasing. 340 facilities are currently under construction or in planning, of which around half will also offer day-care16. In the care home sector, there are currently some 2,100 that offer assisted living alongside classic care places17.

Taking the wishes of the survey respondents already discussed above as a basis18, 59% of those questioned would prefer to live in a shared apartment with other older people if they require care – this is therefore the second most popular form of housing. It is also the type of housing among the answers given which comes closest to the concept of assisted living. On the basis of the approximately 3.9 million care patients with both statutory social care insurance and private mandatory care insurance, this would give a theoretical potential need for 2.3 million assisted living units. This compares with existing stock of only around 303,000 units19.

Even under scenarios20 for existing stock and numbers required which assume a maximum requirement for 525,000 units, demand exceeds supply by between 55% and 85%. An initial view therefore shows a massive supply shortage, so the sector can be seen as having enormous potential. Operators of full-time and part-time care facilities21 are therefore planning a further expansion of their supply in the assisted living sector. As part of these shifts within the current forms of housing and support,

Requirement can only be met with a variety of services

Source: PM Pflegemarkt

Care homes which (also) offer assisted living

it is possible that the prioritisation of outpatient over full-time residential care intended by the Care Support Act will provide a stimulus for innovation and lead to new services or “products”.

New and innovative concepts for living and care are urgently needed …

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Even though the number of care places in Germany has risen overall, two factors are significantly reducing the number of care places in many particularly small care homes. On the one hand, there is the trend to smaller, more specialised care and residential concepts focused on particular types of residents and their requirements22. On the other, are stricter (building) regulations, which still vary from one federal state to another and for example stipulate a ratio of up to 100% for single rooms or a minimum size for communal areas. For structural reasons, these requirements can often only be fulfilled with a reduction in the number of places. There is currently a debate in the market about who should carry the financial risk for the resulting increased costs on the one side and reduced profits on the other – the operator, the property owner, the resident or his or her insurance? The fact that these state regulations have a significant effect on the facilities is without question. Above all, an investor needs to ascertain the property owner’s precise contractual obligations to the operator – a specific number of beds? A minimum number of square metres per room? As care homes are operator-managed properties, the owner’s return on investment depends crucially on the quality of the operator and the profitability of his or her operating concept. This can be massively affected by changes in legislation. They need to be analysed for all their effects on residents, operators and property owners and/or investors. The more flexible the building design, the easier it is to react not only to new regulations but also to new trends.

The situation in the assisted living sector is similar. Here also, the framework and the regulations in the individual federal states are very different. Even the way forms of housing are defined varies widely. The concrete regulations at federal state level are correspondingly diverse. This makes it difficult for investors and providers to operate nationally and also for (potential) residents to compare concepts. At the same time, depending on the specific

operating model, assisted living is increasingly becoming an alternative to a care home, especially as the waiting lists for care homes are getting longer23.

Today, 71% of care-dependent occupants are already categorised as care level 2 or higher. Care in assisted living has its limits24, for example with occupants who require round-the-clock support25 or who have dementia-related problems. Such special needs can often be better managed in a full-time residential care home. The main reason for a move out of assisted living is therefore a deterioration in the health of the occupant. Concepts which offer a combination of assisted living and residential care can be very complementary – both for the resident and for the operator.

Changes in legislation are a challenge for providers and investors

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In terms of origin, the capital invested by German and international investors is approximately equal. On the sale side, however, German players are ahead with 65%. High demand combined with a shortage of suitable care homes26 led to a continuous reduction in yields. Currently, prime yields for care homes are at 4.5%.

Demand in the investment market remains high

As at: July 2019 Source: JLL

0.4 0.4

0.2 0.2

0.4

1.0

0.4

2.8

1.0

1.7

0.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 19

€ billion

Transaction volumes in € billion Average (2009-2018): € 795 million

The demographic trends discussed above and the shortage of supply have led to a strong and ever-growing interest in healthcare properties on the part of investors. This is reflected in transaction activity. Investments in care homes (including assisted living facilities) amounted to some €1.7 billion in 2018, an increase of 70% over the previous year. This was also the second highest value ever recorded.

In the first half of 2019, investment volumes stood at nearly €800 million, already equal to the long-term twelve-month average of previous years. Annualising this level would make 2019 the third-strongest year.

Development of transaction volumesTransaction volumes for care and retirement homes in Germany

… and offer opportunities for investors and developers

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Despite the decline, care homes still count as one of the most attractive sectors for investment, not least from a yield perspective. Yields for assisted living lie between yields for multi-family residential and those for care homes, depending on the operating concept and the quality of the location.

* Basis: asking prices for residential properties for sale, 90% percentile. As at: July 2019 Source: JLL

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q2 19

%

5.10

4.504.203.90

3.062.902.61

Retail Warehouses

Care homesShopping centres

Office

Logistic-industrial

Retail High StreetResidential*

Development in prime yieldsPrime yields in the Big 7 (average)

To qualify as a core product (i.e. a low-risk investment) for investors, assisted living facilities should fulfil the following criteria:

• Location in a region with good purchasing power.• Preferably well-integrated location close to the centre of the city or town in the case of small cities/towns,

or close to the local urban district centre in the case of larger cities.• Good local transport connections and local amenities in the neighbourhood.• Creditworthy operator with good local connections (e.g. with mobile care or assisted living providers).• Intelligent concept which combines housing, support and care (e.g. getting residents involved and active,

possibly opening day-care and support services to external customers), all in the appropriate physical environment.

• Not just assisted living but also semi-residential and mobile care services.• Social service.• Energising leisure activities.• Minimum size of approx. 50 flats / apartments.• Barrier-free access to balconies and terraces.• Redundant access for every floor with at least two lifts.

Against the background of demographic trends, both care homes and assisted living facilities with a coherent concept that fulfils the requirements of residents, the operator and the investor are ideally equipped for the future.

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1 Depending on prognosis scenario. Source: Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), 2019: Germany’s population by 2060. Results of the 14th co-ordinated population projection – main variants 1 to 9.2 2018 JLL Report “Care homes in Germany” https://www.jll.de/de/trends-and-insights/research/pflegeheime-in-deutschland3 Techniker Krankenkasse: TK-Meinungspuls Pflege 2018.4 There are quality certifications, however, some of these are specific to federal states. The existing DIN norms 77800 Qualitätsanforderungen an Anbieter der Wohnform “Betreutes Wohnen für ältere Menschen” and DIN CEN/TS 16118; DIN SPEC 77101:2012-06 Betreutes Wohnen - Anforderungen an Dienstleistungen für ältere Menschen im Rahmen der Wohnform Betreutes Wohnen are non-binding guidelines and recommendations. Some providers are certified under these DIN norms; among other things, these take test of the fit-out standards of the units, the services on offer and measures to guarantee quality.5 Kremer-Preiß/Mehnert/Klemm: Betreutes Seniorenwohnen. Entwicklungsstand und Anforderungen an eine zukunftsgerechte Weiterentwicklung. Ergebnisse einer empirischen Studie, Heidelberg 2019.6 Kremer-Preiß/Mehnert/Klemm: Betreutes Seniorenwohnen. Entwicklungsstand und Anforderungen an eine zukunftsgerechte Weiterentwicklung. Ergebnisse einer empirischen Studie, Heidelberg 2019.7 The average rent in 2018 was around €9.00 per sqm per month, with service charges of around €3.00 per sqm per month. The average total monthly cost including rent, service charges and flat rate fee for care services therefore amounted to approximately €720.00 per person in a two-room apartment, which is the most usual situation. Source: Kremer-Preiß/Mehnert/Klemm: Betreutes Seniorenwohnen. Entwicklungsstand und Anforderungen an eine zukunftsgerechte Weiterentwicklung. Ergebnisse einer empirischen Studie, Heidelberg 2019.8 Difference to 100%: Other. Source: Kremer-Preiß/Mehnert/Klemm: Betreutes Seniorenwohnen. Entwicklungsstand und Anforderungen an eine zukunftsgerechte Weiterentwicklung. Ergebnisse einer empirischen Studie, Heidelberg 2019.9 Book 11, Act on Social Care Insurance, https://www.sozialgesetzbuch-sgb.de/sgbxi/71.html10 Kremer-Preiß/Mehnert/Klemm: Betreutes Seniorenwohnen. Entwicklungsstand und Anforderungen an eine zukunftsgerechte Weiterentwicklung. Ergebnisse einer empirischen Studie, Heidelberg 2019.11 The most current data available on the subject from the Federal Statistics Office is from 2017. The methodology underlying the 2017 figures is slightly different from the 2015 data.12 WidO press release 8th July 201913 Here: co-ordinated population projection by age group (variant 4) compared with care ratios by age group from 2017. Source: Federal Statistics Office.14 PM Pflegemarkt GmbH.15 PM Pflegemarkt GmbH, 2019.16 PM Pflegemarkt GmbH, 2018.17 PM Pflegemarkt GmbH, 2019.18 Techniker Krankenkasse 2018: TK-Meinungspuls Pflege. In this survey, the answer “own home” did not mean simply “in a home of your own” in the sense of a personal private sphere, but genuinely the existing home.19 PM Pflegemarkt GmbH, 2019.20 Kremer-Preiß/Mehnert/Klemm: Betreutes Seniorenwohnen. Entwicklungsstand und Anforderungen an eine zukunftsgerechte Weiterentwicklung. Ergebnisse einer empirischen Studie, Heidelberg 2019.21 Some 85,000 occupants currently live in approximately 2,100 residential facilities that offer assisted living and other forms of living. Source: Rothgang, H; Wolf Ostermann, K; Schmid, A; Domhoff, D; Müller, R; Schmidt, A; (2017): Ambulantisierung stationärer Einrichtungen und innovative ambulante Wohnformen. Endbericht. Study for the Federal Health Ministry, Bonn.22 PM Pflegemarkt GmbH, 2018.23 www.careinvest-online.net/Branchennews/Unternehmen/Wartelisten-in-Pflegeheimen-werden-laenger/(language)/ger-DE 29.07.201924 Kremer-Preiß/Mehnert/Klemm: Betreutes Seniorenwohnen. Entwicklungsstand und Anforderungen an eine zukunftsgerechte Weiterentwicklung. Ergebnisse einer empirischen Studie, Heidelberg 2019.25 Note, however, that 16% of optional services involve 24-hour care.26 At present, there are nearly 400 care homes with around 28,000 full-time residential care places either under construction or in planning (that is 3% based on the number of existing homes and care places), so the supply side is growing at least moderately. Source: PM Pflegemarkt GmbH.

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Page 16: Assisted Living 2019 - JLL · 2019. 11. 21. · Assisted Living 2019 | September 2019 2 As a result of demographic trends and changing life plans, the residential market is becoming

Ralf KemperHead of Valuation & Transaction Advisory Germany+49 69 2003 [email protected]

Peter TölzelHealth Care Valuation Advisory Germany+49 69 2003 [email protected]

AuthorChristian StröderDirector ResearchFrankfurt+49 69 2003 [email protected]

Copyright © Jones Lang LaSalle SE, 2019. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.

ContactsDr. Konstantin KortmannHead of Residential Investment GermanyFrankfurt+49 69 2003 [email protected]

Helge ScheunemannHead of Research GermanyHamburg+49 40 350011 [email protected]