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Assessment and planning of the water resources Assessment and planning of the water resources under various scenarios in the Ganges and Indus under various scenarios in the Ganges and Indus basin: Glaciers contribution and WEAP modellingbasin: Glaciers contribution and WEAP modelling
Devaraj de CONDAPPAMarisa ESCOBAR
Luna BHARATIPriyantha JAYAKODY
Stockholm Environment Institute International Water Management Institute
CPWF Basin Focal Project for the IG BasinCPWF Basin Focal Project for the IG Basin
2 - 3 December 2009, New Delhi2 - 3 December 2009, New Delhi
Mac Kirby [Eastham et al. (2008)] gave an overview of hydrological water uses in the IG Basin.
Objective here: develop an application of the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) in the Indus and Ganges basin so as to:• assess the water resources, in particular contribution from
glaciers,• model its utilisation / planning,• and provide insight into some possible future scenarios.
Outline of the presentation:1. Brief introduction to WEAP.2. Input data gathered.3. Setting WEAP in the Indus and Ganges.4. Analysis of simulations:
• current situation,• scenarios.
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
Objective
Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP)
Developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI). Models simultaneously:
• hydrology: the water resources,• planning: uses of these resources.
Hydrology:• model rainfall / runoff: based on
landuse; soil parameters.
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Hydrology:
• glaciers module: models variation in glaciers area, streamflows, based on degree-day approach, i.e., streamflow calculated with the
potential
sub-division of acatchment:
aice or snow⋅T −T 0degree day factor for ice or snow
(mm/°C/day)
rain / snow temperaturethreshold (°C)
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
Input data gathered
Climate: the TS 2.1 dataset from the Climate Research Unit (CRU).
Observed streamflows:• International databases;• IWMI: Upper Kosi (Nepalese part) and Upper Ganges;• some time series in the Indus extracted from the spreadsheet
of Eastham et al. (2008);• average annual trends from Jain et al. (2007) in the Ganges.
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
Input data gathered
Observed streamflows:
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
Modelling units: sub-basins
Generation of sub-basins with respect to:• available observed time series of streamflows,• large reservoirs or barrages,• major river outlets (where some average annual flows were
available).
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
WEAP-Indus and WEAP-Ganges
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
WEAP-Indus down to Kotri
WEAP-Ganges down to Farakka
Hydrological objects
Water demands
WEAP-Ganges
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
Reliability of WEAP-Indus & WEAP-Ganges
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
Reliability of WEAP-Indus & WEAP-Ganges
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
Calibration
Validation
CalibrationCalibration
Reliability of WEAP-Indus & WEAP-Ganges
What can these WEAP applications simulate?
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
Analysis current situation: water uses
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
In the Ganges Adapted from Amarasinghe et al. (2007)• For year 2000
In the Indus:• Adapted from Amarasinghe et al. (2007) and Habib (2004)• lumped demand for the Indus Basin Irrigation System• For year 2000
Analysis current situation: impacts of canals
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
In the Indus
Average annual streamflows, simulated for period 1982 - 2002
In the Ganges
Analysis current situation: impacts of canals
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
In the Ganges, HaridwarUpper Ganga canal
In the Ganges, NaroraMadhya & Lower Ganga canals
In the Ganges, TajewalaWestern & Eastern Yamuna canals
Average monthly streamflows, simulated for period 1982 - 2002
Analysis current situation: contribution from glaciers
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
HaridwarBefore canal Haridwar
After canal
Average streamflows simulated for period1982 - 2002
Farakka
Analysis current situation: contribution from glaciers
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
DanyourBridge
Tarbela dam
Sukkur
Indus heavily depend on contribution from glaciers
Tarbeladam Sukkur
Scenario analysis: increase in temperature
According to the IPCC: temperature +3.8 °C at the end of the century in the Tibetan region.
Same order by ICIMOD. considered 3 scenarios for 20 years:
• +1°C after 20-years, i.e., a rate of +0.05°C/year,• +2°C after 20-years, i.e., a rate of +0.10°C/year,• +3°C after 20-years, i.e., a rate of +0.15°C/year.
Compared to the reference scenario = period 1982 to 2002.
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
Scenario analysis: increase in temperature
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
Haridwar Devghats
Farakka
Risks of floods
Scenario analysis: increase in temperature
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
Danyour BridgeTarbela dam
Sukkur Risks of floods
Scenario analysis: increase in temperature
Additional annual flow:
Additional flow mainly during the high flow season how to use it?
Tricky as high discharge. Maybe extra flows in April, May & June + September &
October?
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
Ganges
Indus
Scenario analysis: reduction in initial glaciers
What could be consequences of a drastic reduction in glaciers coverage?
considered 4 scenarios for 20 years: initial decrease in glaciers coverage by 25, 50, 75 and 100%.
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
Scenario analysis: reduction in initial glaciers
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
Analysis scenario: reduction in initial glaciers
0. Outline 2. Input data 4. Current situation1. WEAP 3. Setting WEAP Scenarios
Devaraj de [email protected]