Assessing the potential of Demand Side Response in the ... · Shifting demand through price: Time of Use tariffs • After TOU tariffs were introduced negative conservation effect

Jacopo Torriti

FEEM-IEFE Joint Seminar

Università Bocconi

Milan

10 October 2013

Assessing the potential of Demand

Side Response in the residential and

non-residential sectors

Outline

• Demand Side Response (DSR) slow

to emerge

• Reasons: the case for DSR

• Potential contribution of DSR to

capacity mechanisms (non-

residential sector)

• Timing of activities of residential

customers in Europe

2

2m

4h0

1

2

3

6

DSR’s current role in Balancing STOR – breakdown

Focus on Non-BM “Demand Side” Services

STOR by Fuel Type - Aggregators Season 6.3

CHP, 69.3MW, 2%

Diesel, 118.8MW, 4%

Gas Reciprocating Engine,

68.0MW, 2%

Hydro, 69.3MW, 2%

Load Reduction, 83.8MW, 3%

Non-Aggregated, 2412.0MW,

87%

Aggregated Total,

409.0MW, 14%

NBM Demand Side breakdown

Bio-Diesel, 12, 0%

Biomass, 20, 1%

CCGT, 52, 2%

CHP, 72.25, 3%

Diesel, 493.25, 18%

Gas Reciprocating Engine, 68,

2%

Hydro, 69.25, 2%

Landfill gas, 12, 0%

Load Reduction, 139.25, 5%

OCGT, 346, 12%

BM STOR

1537MW , 55%

Non-BM "Demand

Side" STOR:

1284MW, 45%

Aggregated STOR Services

It appears that the majority of

services are ultimately provided by

generation resources

Diesel and open-cycle gas turbine

dominate

Aggregators are another key

aspect of the STOR market,

gathering smaller loads together

for National Grid to instruct

Diesel and other generation

technologies predominate but

biggest contributor of “true”

demand side resources

Load reduction programmes

• Interruptible

Programmes for large

industries

• DSR programmes: load

reduction/shifting from

commercial (and

residential) customers

Response

time

months

Hours /

minutes

DSR programmes in Europe: Examples

DSR: Remote load

control on hot water

space heating

DSR: Cold storage

facilities

DSR: Virtual power

plant

4

DSR slow to emerge (1)

5

6




CHP, 69.3MW, 2%

Diesel, 118.8MW, 4%


68.0MW, 2%

Hydro, 69.3MW, 2%



87%

Aggregated Total,

409.0MW, 14%


Bio-Diesel, 12, 0%

Biomass, 20, 1%

CCGT, 52, 2%

CHP, 72.25, 3%

Diesel, 493.25, 18%


2%

Hydro, 69.25, 2%



OCGT, 346, 12%

BM STOR

1537MW , 55%

Non-BM "Demand

Side" STOR:

1284MW, 45%






dominate









There it is

The majority of “Demand Side” reserve is still “Generation”

Macleod, L., 2012. Overview of National

Grid’s Balancing Services. National Grid.

6

The majority of “Demand Side” reserve is still “Generation”

6




CHP, 69.3MW, 2%

Diesel, 118.8MW, 4%


68.0MW, 2%

Hydro, 69.3MW, 2%



87%

Aggregated Total,

409.0MW, 14%


Bio-Diesel, 12, 0%

Biomass, 20, 1%

CCGT, 52, 2%

CHP, 72.25, 3%

Diesel, 493.25, 18%


2%

Hydro, 69.25, 2%



OCGT, 346, 12%

BM STOR

1537MW , 55%

Non-BM "Demand

Side" STOR:

1284MW, 45%






dominate









There it is

Macleod, L., 2012. Overview of National

Grid’s Balancing Services. National Grid.

DSR slow to emerge (2)


to emerge



capacity mechanisms (non-residential

sector)


customers in Europe

7

2m

4h0

5

DSR slow to emerge: why?

• Limited evidence on DSR net conservation

effects

• High cost estimates for DSR technologies

and infrastructures

• No significant afternoon peak load (e.g.

from air conditioning)

• Regulation/current arrangements holding

back DSR?

8

Conservation effects:

meta-studies residential sector

9

It only makes economic sense if…

10

Energy flow diagram of the UK (adapted

from DECC, 2009)

11

Energy flow diagram of Committee on Climate Change

33/80 scenario for UK in 2050

Net demand duration curve before DSR

Net demand duration curve after DSR

Do current arrangements hold DSR back? (1)

15

National Grid, 2012. STOR Market Information Report: Tender Round 17.

< 10 min

Short Term Operating Reserve (STOR)

– “a service for the provision of additional active power from generation and/or demand reduction”

– 3MW or more of generation or steady demand Deliver within 4 hours from instruction

– Provide for at least 2 hours

– 20 hours recovery

– Ability to provide STOR at least 3 times a week

Do current arrangements hold DSR back? (2)

Load response of generation sites in the

telecommuncations industry

Distribution of load reduction (relative to baseline) during DSR trial

in the hotel sector

18

Sites without generators can also achieve significant reductions.

“Real” load reduction in the hotel sector based on TRIAD response of 98 hotels

mean TRIAD load reduction: 38%

Sites without back-up

generation (turn down

only)

Responsive, 38%

Residual, 62%

Sites with back-up

generation

Responsive, 82%

Residual, 18%


to emerge




sector)


customers in Europe

20

2m

4h0

1

2

3

What if conditions were relaxed?

21

2m

20m

4h

24h

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

10h4h

2h15/20m

Longer response time

Time to “preload”

Greater capacity

Longer response duration

Rising/falling warehouse temperature

Reduced capacity

Ca

pa

cit

y r

es

ou

rce

fa

cto

r

(ST

OR

=1)

Response capacity availability from UK warehouses

(illustrative example)

STOR

CM?

0

10

20

30

40

Retail

Warehouses

HotelandCatering

CommercialOffices

Educaon

Government

Communica

onandTransport

SportandLeisure

Health

Other

Electricityconsump

onin

2011[GWh]

Other

HotWater

Compu ng

Cooling

Catering

Hea ng

Ligh ng

What if conditions were relaxed?

2m

4h0

1

2

3

~0.4 – 1 GW

Examples of expected response capacity for

given response time and durations relative

to present provision under STOR


to emerge




sector)


customers in Europe

24

2m

4h0

5

Shifting demand through price: Time of

Use tariffs • After TOU tariffs were introduced negative conservation

effect (consumption increased by 13.7%)

• Consumers’ electricity bills decreased by 2.2%

• Peak load shifting took place for morning peaks and

created a split in two peaks for evening periods

25

Shifting demand through understanding

timing of activities: practices

• The timing of energy demand depends on

activities / practices

• Simultaneity of practices / hot spots during

the day are vital for peak demand issues

• DSR initiatives are aimed at making

demand flexible

26

• Structure and social distribution

• Spatial, temporal, and social distribution of different practices: who does what, where and when?

• Time pressure and peak demand

• Peak demand and flexibility : how strong/hard is the temporal structure? What can be changed by (what?) intervention?

• Societal synchronisation?

• Change over macro & micro time

• Birth, life and death of practices : how do practices evolve, change shape, expand, spread..?

Timing of residential demand and active

occupancy

• Large amounts of data available on timing

of generation, transmission, distribution

and supply (European Commission, 2010;

International Energy Agency, 2010)

• But limited information about timing of

consumption of residential users

• Two possible approaches:

– advanced metering technologies

– deriving time-related demand for electricity

from available occupancy data

28

Time use data

• The Harmonised European Time Use

Survey (HETUS) database consists of

220,464 residential users across 15

countries

• Focus on single households

29

Diary/

person

id

Starting

Time

Ending

time

Main activity Parallel activity Who with: Where/mode

of tranport

Alone Spouse Small

child

Other

pers.

a 04:00 07:20 Sleep At home

a 07:20 07:50 Shower At home

a 7:50 08:30 Had breakfast Read newspaper Ch At home

a 08:30 08:40 Walked to bus A By foot

a 08:40 09:00 Bus to job OP By bus

Relative occupancy curves of single

households in 15 European countries (1)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Per

cen

tag

e o

f h

ou

seh

old

s w

ith

act

ive

occ

up

an

t

Time of day

15 countries average UK France Slovenia

Estonia Lithuania Finland Sweden

Norway Spain Germany Poland

Belgium Bulgaria Latvia Italy

Relative occupancy curves of single

households in 15 European countries (2)

Absolute occupancy curves of single

households in 15 European countries

32

Activities at home of single households between

20h20 and 20h30

Country Start

Time

End

Time

Work

and

study

(%)

Travel

to/from

(%)

Household

work (%)

Sleep

and

other

(%)

Eating

(%)

Free

time (%)

TV

and

video

(%)

Unspe

cified

time

(%)

Belgium 20:10 20:20 4.5 0.63 15.37 4.58 13.72 22.1 36.76 2.35

Bulgaria 20:10 20:20 3.66 0.75 16.08 3.75 26.53 10.11 38.84 0.28

Finland 20:10 20:20 6.86 0.62 16.87 7.4 6.95 26.76 32.52 2.02

France 20:10 20:20 4.49 1.05 15.88 4.29 36.71 10.34 24.58 2.65

Estonia 20:10 20:20 7.08 1.55 19.86 5.56 9.29 20.08 35.86 0.73

Germany 20:10 20:20 4.49 0.79 12.32 3.22 9.83 29.63 38.58 1.14

Italy 20:10 20:20 4.1 1.44 18.45 4.18 38.97 16.46 15.06 1.34

Latvia 20:10 20:20 8.18 2.25 15.12 4.94 13.16 16.22 39.63 0.51

Lithuania 20:10 20:20 7.76 1.13 17.2 6.91 11.45 13.96 40.9 0.68

Norway 20:10 20:20 6.89 0.61 18.86 2.61 7.86 39.08 23.69 0.38

Spain 20:10 20:20 11.37 2.66 25.03 4.92 8.68 34.16 12.72 0.46

Poland 20:10 20:20 6.22 0.81 15.48 7.99 10.54 17.38 40.74 0.86

Sweden 20:10 20:20 6.88 0.65 16.69 3.29 8.8 29.22 33.58 0.89

Slovenia 20:10 20:20 6.34 0.75 15.08 8.48 8.85 21.07 39.08 0.35

UK 20:10 20:20 5.68 0.9 15.18 4.2 9.16 26.44 37.29 1.15

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

00:0

0

01:0

0

02:0

0

03:0

0

04:0

0

05:0

0

06:0

0

07:0

0

08:0

0

09:0

0

10:0

0

11:0

0

12:0

0

13:0

0

14:0

0

15:0

0

16:0

0

17:0

0

18:0

0

19:0

0

20:0

0

21:0

0

22:0

0

23:0

0

En

erg

y d

em

an

d (

MW

h)

TV we (2.2 TV per home)

TV we (1 TV per home)

TV wd (2.2 TV per home)

TV wd (1 TV per home)

Occupancy variance

– Baseline occupancy variance

– Peak occupancy variance

34

• High peak

variancesmart

appliances

• Low peak

variancemanual and

incentive-based DSR

programmes

• Low non-peak

variance DDSC

• High baseline

variance ToU 35

Country

)

Belgium 0.193

(0.027)

0.051

0.034

0.142

0.159

Bulgaria 0.194

(0.071)

0.048

0.011

0.146

0.183

Finland 0.130

(0.056)

0.024

0.010

0.106

0.120

Estonia 0.127

(0.028)

0.008

0.021

0.119

0.106

Germany 0.113

(0.015)

0.043

0.022

0.070

0.091

Italy 0.124

(0.023)

0.049

0.024

0.075

0.100

Latvia 0.128

(0.027)

0.011

0.024

0.117

0.104

Lithuania 0.131

(0.025)

0.009

0.018

0.122

0.113

Norway 0.130

(0.026)

0.057

0.012

0.073

0.118

Spain 0.192

(0.031)

0.064

0.057

0.128

0.135

Poland 0.101

(0.019)

0.051

0.012

0.060

0.089

Sweden 0.126

(0.025)

0.054

0.014

0.072

0.112

Slovenia 0.144

(0.023)

0.041

0.025

0.103

0.119

United Kingdom 0.165

(0.023)

0.091

0.020

0.074

0.145

Final remarks

• Current “demand side” arrangements

favour generation rather than DSR

• The factors which slowed down DSR in

the past are likely to change in the future

• Different regulatory arrangements (e.g.

under capacity mechanisms) would favour

potential increase of DSR

• Following timing of activities is key to

understand the potential of DSR in the

residential sector 36

References -Grünewald, P. and Torriti, J. (2013), Demand response from the non-domestic sector: Early

UK experiences and future opportunities. Energy Policy, 61, pp. 423-429

-Barton, J., Huang, S., Infield, D., Leach, M., Ogunkunle, D., Torriti, J. and Thomson, M.

(2013), The evolution of electricity demand and the role for demand side participation, in

buildings and transport. Energy Policy, 52. pp. 85-102

-McKerracher, C. and Torriti, J. (2013), Energy consumption feedback in perspective:

integrating Australian data to meta-analyses on in home displays. Energy Efficiency, 6 (2).

pp. 387-405

-López-Rodríguez, M.A., Santiago, I., Trillo-Montero, D., Torriti, J., Moreno-Munoz, A.

(2013), Analysis and modeling of active occupancy of the residential sector in Spain: an

indicator of residential electricity consumption. Energy Policy, 62, pp. 742-751

-Torriti, J. (2012) Price-based demand side management: Assessing the impacts of time-of-

use tariffs on residential electricity demand and peak shifting in Northern Italy. Energy, 44.

pp. 576-583

-Torriti, J. (2012), Demand Side Management for the European Supergrid: Occupancy

variances of European single-person households. Energy Policy, 44, pp. 199–206

-Torriti, J., Hassan, M. G. and Leach, M. (2010) Demand response experience in Europe:

policies, programmes and implementation. Energy, 35. pp. 1575-1583

37

Thanks

[email protected]

6




CHP, 69.3MW, 2%

Diesel, 118.8MW, 4%


68.0MW, 2%

Hydro, 69.3MW, 2%



87%

Aggregated Total,

409.0MW, 14%


Bio-Diesel, 12, 0%

Biomass, 20, 1%

CCGT, 52, 2%

CHP, 72.25, 3%

Diesel, 493.25, 18%


2%

Hydro, 69.25, 2%



OCGT, 346, 12%

BM STOR

1537MW , 55%

Non-BM "Demand

Side" STOR:

1284MW, 45%






dominate









2m

4h0

1

2

3

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Assessing the potential of Demand Side Response in the ... · Shifting demand through price: Time of Use tariffs • After TOU tariffs were introduced negative conservation effect