Assessing savannas with the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems

Dr Lucie Bland

The University of Melbourne

Savanna Science Network 2016

@LucieMBland The IUCN Red List of Ecosystems

@LucieMBland Implementation

@LucieMBland What is an ecosystem and ecosystem collapse?

• Tansley (1935): biotic assemblage + abiotic environment

+ interactions + physical extent.

• We are working on a global classification.

• Collapse:

- Ecosystems decline in quality and quantity.

- Transformation of identity, loss of defining features and/or

replacement by a novel ecosystem.

- Bounded thresholds in key defining features.

@LucieMBland Risk assessment protocol

@LucieMBland Red Listing savannas

• Open and closed savannas of Venezuela

(Version 1.0).

• Two savannas in El Salvador (Crespin et al. 2015).

• Closed-source assessments in Colombia and Brazil (2015).

• Coolibah Black Box Woodland (Keith et al. 2013).

@LucieMBland Coolibah Black Box woodland

• Classification.

• Distribution.

• Characteristic native biota.

• Abiotic environment.

• Key processes.

• Threats.

• Collapse definition.

Mature Regenerating

@LucieMBland Criteria A & B

• Criterion A: Decline in distribution

- A1: 33-58% decline over 50 years: Endangered (Vulnerable-Endangered).

- A2: Complex trends in future clearing and water availability. Data Deficient.

- A3: Historic decline of 65% (50-70%) Vulnerable.

• Criterion B: Restricted distribution

- EOO: 266,400 km2

- AOO: 1193 grid cells

- Locations: 5+.

- Least Concern.

@LucieMBland Criteria C & D

• Criterion C: Environmental degradation

- C1: Median flow declined by 54-60%. Endangered.

- C2: No future projections. Data Deficient.

- C3: 54-60% decline. Vulnerable.

• Criterion D: Biotic disruption

- Vegetation responses to grazing, changes in structure,

abundance of invasive plants (Phyla canescens).

- Insufficient data available on these processes.

- Data Deficient under criteria D1, D2 and D3.

• Criterion E: Ecosystem Viability Analysis

- Not Evaluated.

@LucieMBland Criterion E

• Ecosystem Viability Analysis:

- Predict variable for which collapse threshold has been defined.

- Incorporate stochasticity in ecosystem processes.

- Predict over the same 50-100 year horizon as other criteria.

- Incorporate future scenarios of ecosystem dynamics.

- Scale 0.1-1,000 km.

Probability of ecosystem collapse:

CR ≥ 50% within 50 years

EN ≥ 20% within 50 years

VU ≥ 10% within 100 years

Edge effects

@LucieMBland Coral reef collapse

@LucieMBland Conclusions

• IUCN Red List of Ecosystems is a scientific and practical risk assessment

protocol.

• Sadly, savannas under-represented on the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems.

• Develop case studies or large scale assessments, in particular including data

on ecosystem function.

• Links with management, land-use planning, ecosystem services, and

species threat status.

l.bland@unimelb.edu.au www.lucieblandresearch.wordpress.com

www.iucnredlistofecosystems.com

Funded by: ARC LP130100435.

Thanks to: Emily Nicholson, Tracey Regan, David Keith, Nick Murray, Jon Paul Rodríguez.

Questions?

@LucieMBland Assessment time frames