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February 2016 Rare value in an uncertain world Asian fixed income Presentation only intended for professional investors as defined by MIFID. Non contractual document.

Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

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Page 1: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

February 2016

Rare value in an uncertain world

Asian fixed income

Presentation only intended for professional investors as defined by MIFID.

Non contractual document.

Page 2: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

2

Content

Asian fixed income returns in context

Macro situation in Asia

Market overview

Key considerations in Asian fixed income

Page 3: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

3

Asian fixed income returns in context

Source: BoA Indices: US Treasury, US Corporates, US High Yield, Euro Govts, Euro Corporates, Euro High Yield; JPMorgan Asia Credit Corporate Index: Asian Corporates, Asian High Yield; HSBC Asian Local Bond Index: Asian

Local Currency Bonds, offshore RMB bonds, Indian bonds; ChinaBond indices: onshore RMB bonds. Data as of 31 December 2015

Data shown is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute to investment recommendation to buy or sell in the above-mentioned asset classes

Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

2014 2015 Yield

US Treasury 6.0% 0.8% 1.8%

US Corporates 7.5% -0.6% 3.7%

US High Yield 2.5% -4.6% 8.9%

Euro Govts 13.2% 1.6% 0.7%

Euro Corporates 8.3% -0.4% 1.5%

Euro High Yield 5.5% 0.8% 5.8%

Asian Corporates 8.0% 2.8% 4.2%

Asian High Yield 6.1% 5.2% 7.9%

Asian Local Currency Bonds (in USD) 4.4% -3.2% 3.8%

Offshore RMB Bonds (in USD) 0.4% -2.3% 4.8%

Onshore RMB Bonds (in USD) 7.6% 3.5% 3.2%

Indian bonds (in USD) 13.9% 3.4% 7.9%

Page 4: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

Macro situation in Asia

Page 5: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

5

Asia is in a better position to withstand capital outflows

Foreign holding of local government bonds is relatively high

in Indonesia and Malaysia

Basic balance (current account balance + net FDI inflows) has

improved or remained in surplus in most countries

Signs of stabilising FX reserves (ex China) as central banks

scaled back FX intervention

Source: CEIC, HSBC Global Asset Management, data as of January 2016. The commentary and analysis

presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Global Asset Management on the markets, according to

the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Global Asset

Management. Consequently, HSBC Global Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or

disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document.

Asia will likely continue to see increased capital-flow

volatility on the back of a Fed rate hiking cycle and FX

volatility/RMB risks

Improved basic balance provide some buffers against the

risk of capital outflows

However, countries with heavy reliance on foreign funding

and low FX reserves buffers could be more vulnerable

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

01-2007 01-2008 01-2009 01-2010 01-2011 01-2012 01-2013 01-2014 01-2015

KR TH MY (MGS and MTBs) MY (MGS, MTBs & GIIs) ID

USDbn USDtrn

% of GDP (4qtr-avg) %

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

01-2003 01-2006 01-2009 01-2012 01-2015

HK IN ID KR MY

PH SG TW TH CN, rhs

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15

CH IN ID KR MY PH TW TH

Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15

Page 6: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

6

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

CN HK IN ID KR MY PH TW TH VN

1994 1995 1996 2012 2013 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

CN IN ID KR MY PH SG TW TH

1995 1996 1997 2012 2013 2014 2015*

External fundamentals generally healthy

Note:

1. January-July average for 2015

Source: CEIC, HSBC Global Asset Management, data as of September 2015

Most countries now run current account surpluses vs mostly

in deficits prior to the Asian financial crisis (AFC) FX reserves import cover improved from their AFC levels

% of GDP Months

1

Page 7: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

7

For all the concerns about Chinese growth, China and India seem to have more solid foundations than other large economies

Note: Countries included are those that are included in the GBI-EM Broad Index as of 31 October 2014

Source: JP Morgan Morgan Markets, IMF, World Economic Outlook Database October 2014. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Global Asset Management

accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target.

BRICS et al GDP 2015 GDP 2016 Unemployment CPI

Budget

balance C/A balance 10 yr bonds 12mo USD

Brazil -2.8% -1.2% 7.6% 8.9% -6.0% -3.8% 16.2% -34.6%

Russia -3.9% -0.4% 5.2% 15.0% -2.8% 5.5% 9.6% -17.9%

India 7.3% 7.6% 4.9% 5.0% -3.8% -1.1% 7.7% -6.7%

China 6.9% 6.4% 4.1% 1.6% -2.7% 3.1% 2.8% -5.6%

South Africa 1.5% 1.8% 25.5% 4.7% -3.8% -4.3% 9.5% -31.2%

Malaysia 5.4% 6.1% 3.2% 2.5% -4.0% 2.5% 4.2% -19.1%

Indonesia 4.7% 5.0% 6.2% 6.4% -2.0% -2.5% 8.7% -9.7%

Turkey 2.9% 3.0% 9.8% 7.5% -1.6% -4.9% 10.9% -24.3%

Page 8: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

8

Asian currencies have been appreciating against global currencies

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

12-2013

01-2014

02-2014

03-2014

04-2014

05-2014

06-2014

07-2014

08-2014

09-2014

10-2014

11-2014

12-2014

01-2015

02-2015

03-2015

04-2015

05-2015

06-2015

07-2015

08-2015

09-2015

10-2015

11-2015

China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand United States

Source: BIS, HSBC Global Asset Management, data as of December 2015. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Asian currencies in REER terms (rebased to 100 on 31 Dec 2013)

Page 9: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

9

RMB expected to remain stable against trade weighted index

USD/CNY (26%)

EUR/CNY (21%)

JPY/CNY (15%)

HKD/CNY (7%)

AUD/CNY (6%)

CNY/MYR (5%)

CNY/RUB (4%)

GBP/CNY (4%)

SGD/CNY (4%)

CNY/THB (3%)

CAD/CNY (3%)

CHF/CNY (2%)

NZD/CNY (1%)

RMB strengthens versus EM currencies Currency weighting in TWI

China has pledged to monitor newly adopted Trade Weighted Index (TWI) as reference for daily currency fixing rate

USD/CNY could see greater volatility, while the RMB against TWI is expected to remain relatively stable

Rebased, Aug 2015 = 100

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16

vs USD vs EUR

vs JPY CNY (CFETS weightings)

vs a basket of EM currencies

Appreciation

Depreciation

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, as at 20 Jan 2016. Note: EM currencies includes BRL, RUB, ZAR, INR and TRY. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The commentary and analysis

presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Global Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Global Asset Management.

Consequently, HSBC Global Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document.

Page 10: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

Market overview

Page 11: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

11

Overview of Asian fixed income Size and yields of the Asian credit and currency bond markets

Notes:

1. Source: JPMorgan Asia Credit Index, as of 31 December 2015.

2. Source: AsiaBondsOnline; market sizes as of September 2015; Yield numbers as of 27 January 2016

Data shown is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute any investment recommendation to buy or sell in the above-mentioned countries and asset classes.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Chin

a

Ko

rea

India

Ma

laysia

Th

aila

nd

Sin

ga

pore

Hong K

on

g

Indonesia

Ph

ilippin

es

% (USDbn)

Size of Asian local currency bond market (LHS) 10-year Government Yields (RHS)

Asian USD credit markets1 Asian local currency bond markets2

The market can be broadly split in two

USD Asian credit market of approx USD623 billion

Local currency bond market of approx USD10 trillion

Including China, South Korea, India, Hong Kong, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines and some other frontier

markets

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Chin

a

Ko

rea

Hong K

on

g

Indonesia

India

Ph

ilippin

es

Sin

ga

pore

Ma

laysia

Th

aila

nd

Sri L

anka

Pa

kis

tan

(%) (USDbn)

Size of Asian USD credit market (LHS) Yield (RHS)

Page 12: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

12

Liquidity

Source: HSBC Research, December 2014

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, February 2014

Average daily trading

volume for the team Most liquid names Average Least liquid names

Asian US dollar bonds (IG) USD15-100m 5bps 10bps 20-25bps

Asian US dollar bonds (HY) USD5-50m USD0.25-USD0.75 USD1 USD2-3

Offshore RMB Bonds RMB20-100m USD0.05-USD0.75 USD1 USD2-3

Government securities Corporate bonds

Daily trading volume Bid/offer spread Daily trading volume Bid/offer spread

China CNY25-35bn 2-3bps CNY10-20bn 5-20bps

Hong Kong HKD300m 10bps HKD4-6bn per month 10-30bps

India INR100-150bn 1-2bps INR2bn 2-3bps

Indonesia IDR4-5tn 5-15bps IDR50-150bn 50-200 cents

Korea KRW9-11tn 0.5-1.5bps KRW0.5trn 2-4bps

Malaysia MYR1-3bn 5-50 cents MYR2-3bn per month 5-10bps

Philippines PHP13bn 1-15bps – –

Singapore SGD720mn 3bps SGD20-50m 10-50 cents

Thailand THB10-12bn 1-6bps THB300-400m 5-10bps

Vietnam VND1-2trn 15-30bps VND10-50bn 50-70bps

Indicative bid/ask spreads for credits

Local currency bond bid/offer spreads

Page 13: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

Key considerations in Asian fixed income

Page 14: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

14

Key considerations in Asian fixed income

Quality

Price

Underrepresentation

Diversification

Future developments

Resilience

Capturing the theme

Single market opportunities

Page 15: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

15

Quality

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, Bloomberg, July 2015. Any forecast, projection or target contained in this presentation is for information purpose only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC accepts no liability for any failure to

meet such forecasts, projections or targets. For illustrative purpose only. The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Global Asset Management on the markets, according to the information

available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Global Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Global Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken

on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Asia ex-Japan North America Latin America European Union

2014 2015e 2016e 2017e

Government debt to GDP Asian GDP growth vs rest of the World

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jap

an

Italy

US

Sin

ga

pore

Sp

ain

Fra

nce

UK

Germ

any

India

Ma

laysia

Th

aila

nd

Chin

a

Ta

iwan

Ko

rea

Ph

ilippin

es

Indonesia

Hong K

on

g

Asia (ex-Japan) Non-Asia

% %

Asian (ex Japan) institutions are less indebted than those in other parts of the world

Participating in generally higher growth economies should enable Asian institutions to service their debts more easily, all other

things being equal

Page 16: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

16

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Indo

nesia

India

Ph

ilipp

ines

Ma

laysia

Chin

a

Th

aila

nd

Sin

ga

pore

Ko

rea

US

UK

Sp

ain

Hon

g K

on

g

Italy

Fra

nce

Ge

rma

ny

Jap

an

Price

Source: Bloomberg, 27 January 2016. Past performance is not indicative of future performance

Selected 10-year government bond yields

Spreads Yield (%)

Yields in Asia tend to be higher than in US, Japanese and European markets

Global investment grade bond spread

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Dec-1

3

Jan

-14

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Jun

-14

Jul-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ap

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Jun

-15

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

US IG Corp Asia IG Corp EU IG Corp

Page 17: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

17

Asia is underrepresented in Global Bond Indices

Rest of the World Asia

Note:

1. Citigroup World Government Bond Index

Source: IMF, Citigroup, data as of October 2015

Asia accounts for about 50% of the

world’s population

Asia accounts for about 35% of the

world’s GDP

Asia accounts for less than 1% of

Global Bond Indices1

Page 18: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

18

Diversification

Note:

1. The effects of taxes have not been adjusted in this analysis

Source: Bloomberg, June 2015. Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Index 1 = 10% HSBC ALBI + 10% HSBC ADBI + 80% BGA

Index 2 = 15% HSBC ALBI + 15% HSBC ADBI + 70% BGA

Risk and

return 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

H1

2015

Cum

return

10-year

average Volatity

Index 1 -3.5% 7.0% 9.1% 3.8% 8.1% 6.3% 5.6% 5.2% -2.8% 1.5% -2.5% 43.6% 4.0% 4.7%

Index 2 -2.9% 7.3% 8.9% 3.2% 8.7% 6.7% 5.6% 5.7% -2.9% 2.0% -2.2% 46.9% 4.2% 4.5%

BGA -4.5% 6.6% 9.5% 4.8% 6.9% 5.5% 5.6% 4.3% -2.6% 0.6% -3.1% 38.0% 3.7% 5.3%

Cumulative return (in USD)¹

Page 19: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

19

Return characteristics of bond markets Stress scenarios

Asset class Duration Yield

Current

quality

Simulated

return if +1%

govt yields

Simulated

return if +2%

govt yields

Simulated

return if 100bp

spread widening

Simulated

return if 200bp

spread widening

US Treasury 6.24 1.53% AA+ -2.66% -7.90% 2.58% 2.58%

Euro Government 7.16 0.65% AA+ -4.89% -11.05% 1.27% 1.27%

US Corporate 6.71 3.59% BBB -0.98% -6.69% -0.98% -6.69%

Euro Corporate 4.94 1.45% BBB -2.10% -6.04% -2.10% -6.04%

Onshore RMB Bond 3.83 3.10% BBB+ 0.84% -1.99% 3.10% 2.53%

Offshore RMB Bond 2.58 5.32% A-1 3.74% 2.16% 4.06% 2.79%

Asia Corporate (USD) 4.07 4.47% BBB 2.01% -1.06% 2.01% -1.06%

India Government 6.02 7.55%2 BBB- 2.53% -2.49% 7.55% 7.55%

Notes: Any forecast, projection or target contained in this presentation is for information purposes only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecasts, projections or targets. For

illustrative purpose only. Simulations are not indicative of future performance. Actual events, conditions and performance may differ materially from assumptions and simulations

1. Based on HSBC Global Asset Management Internal Ratings where bonds are unrated by major rating agencies

2. Including estimate for withholding tax on coupons for foreign investors

3. For illustrative purpose only and does not constitute investment advice

Source: Bloomberg; HSBC Global Asset Management, 19 January 2015

Simulated scenario returns (in local currency) over next 12 months

Page 20: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

20

Risk/return profile

Both Asian USD and local

currency bonds offered

attractive risk adjusted returns

Volatility has been

surprisingly low

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management and Bloomberg. Analysis period: October 2005 to October 2015. Asian USD Bonds – HSBC Asian Dollar Bond Index; Asian Local

Currency Bonds – HSBC Asian Local Bond Index; Asian High Yield Corporate – HSBC Asian High Yield Bond Corporate Index; GEM Local currency money market – JPM

Emerging Local Markets ELMI Plus Composite Index; GEM local bonds – JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Composite Index; GEM corporate bonds – JP Morgan Corporate Emerging

Market Bond Index; US Treasuries – Merrill Lynch US Treasures & Agencies Index; Global equities – MSCI World Index; Asia ex Japan equities – MSCI Asia ex Japan equity. US

High Yield- Merrill Lynch US High Yield Index; in USD terms. Investment involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future performance

Asian USD Bonds

Asian Local Currency Bonds

Global Equities

Asia ex Japan Equities

US High Yield

US Treasuries

GEM Local Money Market

GEM Local Bonds

Asian High Yield Corporate

GEM Corporate Bonds

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Annualised returns

Volatility

Page 21: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

21

Future developments

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, July 2015. Forecasts in the first table are based on 5 year historical growth rate and IMF forecast for nominal GDP growth, assuming broadly stable exchange rates. ‘China 2014 Investable’

based on sum of QFII and RQFII quotas available for bond investment and an estimate of CIBM quotas for Central Banks and Insurance (not publically available). ‘India 2014 Investible’ based on FPI domestic bond market quota.

Current market sizes taken from Asian Development Bank except India taken from HSBC research. Forecasts in the second table are based on JPMorgan Asian Credit Index and 5 year historical growth rates and IMF forecast for

nominal GDP growth, except China. Smaller countries excluded. The forecasts are provided for illustrative purpose only and are not guaranteed in any way. HSBC accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecasts

USDbn 2014

2014

investable 2020f

% change 2014

investable to 2020f

China 5,192 250 10,100 3,940%

Indonesia 123 123 172 39%

Korea 1,703 1,703 2,802 65%

Malaysia 316 316 573 82%

Philippines 104 104 190 83%

Hong Kong 194 194 310 60%

Singapore 241 241 386 60%

Thailand 281 281 444 58%

Vietnam 41 41 122 199%

India 1,086 81 2,112 2,508%

Total 9,281 3,334 17,211 416%

USDbn 2014 2020f % change

China 195.8 381.0 95%

Hong Kong 69.5 145.2 109%

India 49.5 219.8 344%

Indonesia 55.4 118.0 113%

Malaysia 17.6 25.1 43%

Pakistan 3.6 12.6 246%

Philippines 42.0 70.7 68%

Singapore 24.7 32.5 31%

South Korea 78.3 118.1 51%

Sri Lanka 7.1 45.6 545%

Taiwan 2.9 8.8 201%

Thailand 15.6 65.7 322%

Vietnam 2.4 8.2 247%

Total 564.5 1,251.2 122%

Forecast of local currency bond market size using GDP

forecast and historical 5-yr avg growth rate

Forecast of USD Asian bond market size using GDP forecast

and historical 5-yr avg growth rate

Page 22: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

22

Capturing the theme

Asian fixed income universe is made up of the countries which are set to contribute to the shift of focus in the world economy from

west to east

The financial markets will provide new and valuable opportunities for investors in the coming years

Page 23: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

23

RMB bonds – Yields in the offshore market are attractive on a risk adjusted basis

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management; Bloomberg, data as of 29 December 2015. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC

Global Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Global Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Global Asset Management will not

be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15

HSBC Asian US Dollar Bond Index BofA Merrill Lynch Euro Corporate Index BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Index HSBC Offshore RMB Bond Index

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15

HSBC Asian US Dollar Bond Index BofA Merrill Lynch Euro Corporate Index BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Index HSBC Offshore RMB Bond Index

Yield comparison – Asian hard currency bond vs offshore RMB bond

Historical yield (duration adjusted)

%

Duration of the market is only around 2.7 years

Therefore the duration-adjusted yield is attractive

Page 24: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

24

Indian bonds

5.2 5.5

6.0 5.7

4.3 3.9 4.0

3.3

2.5

6.0 6.5

4.8

5.7

4.8 4.5

4.1 3.9 3.5

3.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

FY

00

FY

01

FY

02

FY

03

FY

04

FY

05

FY

06

FY

07

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13

FY

14

FY

15

FY

16

FY

17

FY

18

Fiscal deficit (as per new consolidation path) Old fiscal consolidation path

Govt’s fiscal

consolidation path

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

0123456789

10

So

uth

Afr

ica

Indonesia

India

Me

xic

o

Ph

ilippin

es

Ma

laysia

Hungary

Chin

a

Th

aila

nd

US

UK

Sp

ain

Germ

any

7.8%

Note: Any forecasts, projections or targets contained in this presentation is for information purpose only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecasts, projections or targets. For

illustrative purpose only.

Source: Budget documents, CEIC, HSBC, as of 28 January 2016. Past performance is not indicative of future performance

Expected

High yield

Improving budget

Oil boost

Improving current account

Improved currency performance

Central government fiscal deficit

Selected 10 year government bond yields Current account deficit

Yield (%)

% of GDP

% of GDP

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25

Conclusions

Asian fixed income will be vulnerable to any further risk aversion

Asian currencies will struggle to outperform while the USD is strong

However, Asian fixed income has enduring qualities with the potential to outperform

Niche opportunities are worth consideration

The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Global Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from

HSBC Global Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Global Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document.

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Key risks and disclosures

Page 27: Asian Fixed Income Outlook - HSBC · 2015 02-2015 03-2015 04-2015 05-2015 06-2015 07-2015 08-2015 09-2015 10-2015 11-2015 China Taiwan Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines

27

Key risks

Investor should be reminded that investment in some of the developing Asian countries may involve special considerations and

risks. Political changes, government regulation, social instability or diplomatic development, etc could affect adversely the

economies of such countries or the value of the investment

Change of interest rate may affect the value of the investments. Bonds and other fixed income securities are more susceptible to

fluctuation in interest rate and may fall in value if interest rates change

The assets and liabilities of the investments may be denominated in Asian currencies which is different from the base currency of

the investments. Therefore, the investments maybe affected favourably or unfavourably by exchange control regulation or

changes in the exchange rates between the base currency and other currencies

The investments may have exposure in credit risk whereby investments in non-investment grade debt obligations involves a high

amount of risk. An issuer suffering an adverse change in its financial condition could lower the credit quality of a security, leading

to greater price volatility of the security

Investments made may have exposure in financial derivative instruments, such as futures, forwards and swaps, etc. Investments

in financial derivative instruments may involve a greater degree of risk than in case with conventional securities and may subject

to liquidity and counterparty risks

Currency movement and market condition may affect the value of investments

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28

Important information

This presentation is distributed by HSBC Global Asset Management (France) and is only intended for professional investors as defined by MiFID.

It is incomplete without the oral briefing provided by the representatives of HSBC Global Asset Management (France). The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. All non-authorised

reproduction or use of this commentary and analysis will be the responsibility of the user and will be likely to lead to legal proceedings. This document has no contractual value and is not by any means intended as a

solicitation, nor a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument in any jurisdiction in which such an offer is not lawful. The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the

opinion of HSBC Global Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Global Asset Management (France).

Consequently, HSBC Global Asset Management (France) will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. All data

come from HSBC Global Asset Management unless otherwise specified. Any third party information has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but which we have not independently verified. Any

forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Global Asset Management (France) accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target.

The performance figures displayed in the document relate to the past and past performance should not be seen as an indication of future returns. It is important to remember that the value of investments and any

income from them can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. As interest rates rise debt securities will fall in value.The value of debt securities is inversely proportional to interest rate movements.

Important information for Luxembourg investors: HSBC entities in Luxembourg are regulated and authorised by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF).

Important information for Swiss investors: This document may be distributed in Switzerland only to qualified investors according to Art. 10 para 3, 3bis and 3ter of the Federal Collective Investment Schemes Act

(CISA). The presented fund is authorised for public distribution in Switzerland in the meaning of Art. 120 of the Federal Collective Investment Schemes Act. (Potential) investors are kindly asked to consult the latest

issued Key Investor Information Document (KIID), prospectus, articles of incorporation and the (semi-)annual report of the fund which may be obtained free of charge at the head office of the representative: HSBC

Global Asset Management (Switzerland) Ltd., Bederstrasse 49, P.O. Box, CH-8002 Zurich. Paying agent: HSBC Private Bank (Suisse) S.A., Quai des Bergues 9-17, P. O. Box 2888, CH-1211 Geneva 1. Investors

and potential investors should read and note the risk warnings in the prospectus and relevant KIID. Before subscription, investors should refer to the prospectus for general risk factors and to the KIID for specific risk

factors associated with this fund. Issue and redemption expenses are not taken into consideration in the calculation of performance data. The fund presented in this document is a sub-fund of HSBC Global Investment

Funds, an investment company constituted as a société à capital variable domiciled in Luxemburg.

HSBC Global Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of HSBC Group. The above document has been approved for distribution/issue by the following entity:

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Offices: Immeuble Coeur Défense, 110, esplanade du Général Charles de Gaulle, 92400 Courbevoie - La Défense 4 . (Website: www.assetmanagement.hsbc.com/fr).

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Copyright © 2016. HSBC Global Asset Management (France). All rights reserved.

Non contractual document, updated in February 2016 / AMFR_Ext_077_2016