Sometimes the Dragon Sometimes the Dragon Wins:Wins:

A Perspective on Information-Age WarfareA Perspective on Information-Age Warfare

Author: Colonel Charles J. Dunlap Jr.Author: Colonel Charles J. Dunlap Jr.United States Air ForceUnited States Air Force

Presenter’s Name: Sohel ImrozPresenter’s Name: Sohel Imroz

Date: March 2, 2004Date: March 2, 2004

About the AuthorAbout the Author

Joined USAF in 1972Joined USAF in 1972 Colonel since 1993Colonel since 1993 Brigadier General since 2002Brigadier General since 2002 http://http://www.af.mil/bios/bio.asp?bioIDwww.af.mil/bios/bio.asp?bioID

=5293=5293

Background of the ArticleBackground of the Article

The author’s experience in SomaliaThe author’s experience in Somalia How We Lost the High-Tech War of 2007: How We Lost the High-Tech War of 2007:

A warning from the future (1/29/1996) A warning from the future (1/29/1996) Not a technical report, but an imagined taleNot a technical report, but an imagined tale Defeat of US in 2007Defeat of US in 2007 10 propositions10 propositions

Proposition #1Proposition #1

Our most likely future adversaries will be Our most likely future adversaries will be unlike ourselves.unlike ourselves. New Warrior ClassNew Warrior Class

Do not behave rationallyDo not behave rationally Capable of doing indescribable atrocitiesCapable of doing indescribable atrocities Willing to self sacrificeWilling to self sacrifice Brought up to fight, think fighting honorable, killing in Brought up to fight, think fighting honorable, killing in

warfare glorious (J. Keegan, British Military Historian)warfare glorious (J. Keegan, British Military Historian) Follow a charismatic leader, or an ideologyFollow a charismatic leader, or an ideology

Proposition #2Proposition #2

Advance Information Technology will Advance Information Technology will facilitate the consolidation of potential facilitate the consolidation of potential opponents.opponents. Effective methods of communicationsEffective methods of communications Decline in the cost and higher affordability of Decline in the cost and higher affordability of

all kinds of communication devicesall kinds of communication devices Use of “telepresence” and holographic imageryUse of “telepresence” and holographic imagery

Proposition #3Proposition #3

Some analysts underestimate how future Some analysts underestimate how future technologies will empower warrior peopletechnologies will empower warrior people Combat simulators and computerized teaching Combat simulators and computerized teaching

technologiestechnologies User-friendly software, easy-to-use systemsUser-friendly software, easy-to-use systems Battlefield will become technologically “level” – Battlefield will become technologically “level” –

COTS technologyCOTS technology

Proposition #3 (contd.)Proposition #3 (contd.)

Advantages of non-democratic opponents:Advantages of non-democratic opponents: Less complicated rules and regulationsLess complicated rules and regulations Shorter procurement processShorter procurement process Are our current acquisition laws dynamic Are our current acquisition laws dynamic

enough to accommodate rapid change in enough to accommodate rapid change in Information Technology?Information Technology?

NONO

Proposition #4Proposition #4

The age of mass warfare may not be The age of mass warfare may not be over.over. Our adversaries have same technology as we Our adversaries have same technology as we

have.have. Technology neutralizes expertise and superior Technology neutralizes expertise and superior

training.training. Result: The side with more combatants win.Result: The side with more combatants win.

Proposition #5Proposition #5

Impact of Information Technology on Impact of Information Technology on media will be the most immediate and media will be the most immediate and powerfulpowerful Past: Media had limited access to battlefield.Past: Media had limited access to battlefield. Future: Media has full access. Future: Media has full access.

Own surveillance satellites, self contained Own surveillance satellites, self contained communication systemcommunication system

Aerobureau has flying newsroomAerobureau has flying newsroom Press becomes “poor man’s intelligence Press becomes “poor man’s intelligence

service”.service”.

Proposition #6Proposition #6

Media and personal communication Media and personal communication devices will make it difficult to carry a war devices will make it difficult to carry a war on for much more than thirty days.on for much more than thirty days. ““Virtual presence” of combatants will allow Virtual presence” of combatants will allow

terrifying sights of death and mutilationterrifying sights of death and mutilation http://digitaljournalist.org/issue0212/pt_index.hhttp://digitaljournalist.org/issue0212/pt_index.h

tmltml CAUTION! Some pictures may be very disturbingCAUTION! Some pictures may be very disturbing

Result: Domestic and international pressure to Result: Domestic and international pressure to end war as quickly as possible. end war as quickly as possible.

Proposition #7Proposition #7

Don’t focus on “information dominance”, Don’t focus on “information dominance”, but on developing strategies on operating but on developing strategies on operating in a “information transparent” in a “information transparent” environmentenvironment.. Each side knows everything about the other.Each side knows everything about the other. Reason: Personal communication devices, Reason: Personal communication devices,

technology-empowered media, etctechnology-empowered media, etc..

Proposition #8Proposition #8

Information warfare will not become Information warfare will not become bloodless, rather, it will be more savage.bloodless, rather, it will be more savage. Question: Can we win a war without firing a Question: Can we win a war without firing a

shot?shot? Answer of U.S. Army Officer: YesAnswer of U.S. Army Officer: Yes

Reason: Virus, jam broadcasting, zero bank balance, Reason: Virus, jam broadcasting, zero bank balance, etc.etc.

Answer of Colonel Dunlap: NoAnswer of Colonel Dunlap: No Reason: Redundancy, opponents may not fight or Reason: Redundancy, opponents may not fight or

quit for same reasons.quit for same reasons.

Proposition #8 (Contd.)Proposition #8 (Contd.)

How the opponents will fight against us?How the opponents will fight against us? Don’t destroy information structure, but try to smash Don’t destroy information structure, but try to smash

spiritspirit U.S. soldier dragged over Somalia streetsU.S. soldier dragged over Somalia streets

Open display of atrocitiesOpen display of atrocities Torture of the POWsTorture of the POWs Recruit young teenagersRecruit young teenagers

Women? The movie “Rules of Engagement”, “The Women? The movie “Rules of Engagement”, “The Terrorist”Terrorist”

Guerilla attackGuerilla attack Build military facilities beneath public facilitiesBuild military facilities beneath public facilities Hostage takingHostage taking

Proposition #9Proposition #9

Future adversaries may adopt “indirect Future adversaries may adopt “indirect approach”.approach”. Don’t attack the U.S., but attack a weaker Don’t attack the U.S., but attack a weaker

countrycountry Influence U.S. actionsInfluence U.S. actions

Example: Example: Create turmoil in U.S. by collapsing the Mexican Create turmoil in U.S. by collapsing the Mexican

economyeconomy Sink oil tankers near U.S. maritime areaSink oil tankers near U.S. maritime area

Proposition #10Proposition #10

Use of new techno-weapons, and Use of new techno-weapons, and unexpected use of traditional weapons.unexpected use of traditional weapons. Not every culture values self preservation Not every culture values self preservation

above all else.above all else. Suicidal attacksSuicidal attacks

ConclusionConclusion

Not to underestimate the enemy.Not to underestimate the enemy. ““We cannot expect the enemy planning We cannot expect the enemy planning

his war to suit our weapons; we must plan his war to suit our weapons; we must plan our weapons to fight war where, when, our weapons to fight war where, when, and how the enemy chooses.” and how the enemy chooses.”

(Admiral Charles Turner Joy)(Admiral Charles Turner Joy)