Appendix 1: Sample of data from LSA workshop flipcharts and discussion notes

Groups Driving forces & Uncertainties as written on Flipcharts

Scenario framework – As drawn by workshop participants in flipcharts

Summarised sample from discussion notes on impact of critical uncertainties on meso level

Group 1

A1.1 Legislation - Pressure on big grocers to grow in new ways, consumers and businesses face taxation on waste, large businesses might adopt the living wage, pressure to reduce waste through taxation, pressure to improve wages.

A1.2 Customer channel preference - Rapid change in delivery capabilities to consumer, supermarkets may not only increase their number of convenience stores but also start wholesaling operations from hypermarkets, there’s a customer perception of lack of sites, convenience shopping online may take off, new retail formats need to be developed beyond traditional c-store sites because of customer needs.

A1.3 Technology – There will be increased deployment of technology in stores, how will big data be used in small stores?

A 1.11 What kind of world would LSA have to contend with when government intervention in retail was high and consumers preferred shopping in large retail stores? In this world would convenience retailers need to join forces with larger retailers to overcome policy challenges? Would collaborative synergies between large and small retailers be the new industry norm?A1.12 What kind of world would LSA have to contend with in a future world where government intervention in retail was low but consumers preferred shopping in large retail stores? Would convenience retailers reposition themselves as community stores, collaborating with local producers to offer organic products cheaply? Would they offer services to promote health and wellbeing among communities? Would they incorporate more technology in service delivery?

Group 2

A1.4 Legislation - Pressure on retailers to enforce government policies, rising fuel prices, we are already the police for alcohol and tobacco, what’s next? More chilled food, longer opening hours, more frequent deliveries mean higher energy bills. Is it sustainable?

A1.5 Consumer issues - Changing demographics, older, more diverse population is changing the product mix.

A1.6 Technology: How do you use big data in a small store? Increasing deployment of technology in store and pre and post store.

A 1.13 What kind of world would LSA have to contend with in a future world where government intervention was low but energy costs were high? Would convenience stores reposition their core product offerings (frozen and chilled food)? Would they focus attention on collaborating with local producers to sell more fresh produce? Would they need to forge collaborations with local suppliers? A1.14 What kind of world would LSA have to contend with when political control was high and energy costs were high? In this world would convenience stores find it very challenging to sustain their business? Would they have to focus more on community-based initiatives to sustain their business? Would they have to refocus their efforts in creating more sustainability-oriented business models? How would they fund such initiatives?

Group 3

A1.7 Changing Legislation - Increasing costs, particularly in wages and energy, tobacco, alcohol and health policies are changing in different ways at the local level, ‘Changes to the tax and benefits system as well as pressure for a living wage will adversely impact costs.’

A1.8 Consumer issues -How to serve older, poorer, more urbanized, more diverse consumers?

A1.9 hanging retail formats -Increasing store competition from multiples and discounters, and increasing wholesale competition from hypermarkets; there is a risk to certain product categories, such as news, as new methods of distribution are developed.’ ‘What is the future social experience for convenience stores? ‘Should we re-define the role as meeting needs rather than selling products.

A1.10 Geo-political issues - Relationship of sustainability and globalization, including food and water supply, ‘If US dominates trade agreements, will there be nationalist responses?’

A1.15 What kind of world would LSA have to contend with in a future where small retailers were dominant and consumers did not want personalization in stores? In this world would convenience stores have to introduce tech enabled self service options in their stores? Would they need to collaborate with mobile operators and tech companies to deliver hi-tech impersonal and efficient service?A1.16 What kind of world would LSA have to contend with a future where big retailers were dominant and consumers did not want personalization in stores? This world would challenge the existence of small retailers. To sustain their businesses would convenience stores collaborate with large retailers and provide collection services for them in conveniently located neighbourhood stores? Or would convenience retailers collaborate with online retailers to provide exclusive collection points for their services?

Appendix 2: Sample of data from flipchart and discussion notes of meeting between LSA senior management and research team after the scenario workshop

Summary of discussion notes on the impact of critical uncertainties on the meso level – LSA senior management & research team

A2.1‘The government are pushing more planning decisions, alcohol rules and competition issues down to the local level, will this continue?’ ‘Financial constraints on SMEs are hindering local development.’ (LSA CEO)Will government regulations continue to favour large retailers in the future as well? Or will that change in favour of local retailers? Would local authorities become more powerful in every region? (LSA CEO)‘Consumer expectations keep increasing, wanting everything a large supermarket can offer in a small store at the end of their road.’ (LSA Business Development Director)‘How are consumers going to use online retailing, replacing their main shop or as a complementary channel?’ (LSA Business Development Director)Would convenience stores have to consider tech-enabled self-service models? (LSA Business Development Director)

Final scenario framework A2.2 Final scenario stories developed after ‘what-if’questioning

The i-permarket imagines a scenario where the convenience store combines with the online store to provide the assortment of a hypermarket in a small store format. Most of the product (80% plus), both food and non-food, will be ordered online and delivered to the store in advance of the customer topping up with impulse purchases, such as confectionary, snacks, and soft drinks, as well as perishable daily items, such as newspapers, milk and bread.

The market circle represents a revolving market square, where the central market offer of everyday items, such as ready meals, milk and bread, is supported by a variety of different revolving regional offers that change each day as they move from one local convenience store location to another. These revolving offers will be highly differentiated each selling very different products and services, such as toys, T-shirts, fresh fish, and food-to-go. The central everyday offer and the various occasional offers may be operated under their own separate brands.

Click & pick is focused on top-up shopping in store with a supporting online offer. Most sales (80% plus) will be direct from the store with regular and specialist items available to pick up in store via an online service ordered in advance by the customer. Within the store, a large range of product categories is available but with little choice within each category unless the supporting online service is utilised. The instore assortment comprises primarily private label products, while branded equivalents are available online for a premium price. Pick & serve is also focused on top-up shopping but the emphasis is on local products, as well as local services, such as a coffee area. The product range is variable depending both on demand for everyday products and the supply availability of local products. The store will typically be run by a local family or the wider community to support their choice of lifestyle.

Appendix 3: Sample of data from TP workshop flipcharts and discussion notes

Groups

Driving forces & Uncertainties - Flipcharts

Scenario framework – As drawn by workshop participants in flipcharts

Summarised sample of discussion notes on impact of critical uncertainties on meso level

Group 1

A3.1 Consumer behavior: Consumers will be jumping back in time to the vibrant marketplace of the past for passionate purchases and accepting the industrial and digital revolutions for every other kind of purchase, consumers, consumers will use controlled retail spaces for emotionally meaningful purchases, ‘There will be ambiguity of what is indoor and what is outdoor’

A3.2 Technology: Interesting digital manufacturing will take place on site’

A 3.8. What kind of world would TP have to contend with in a future where technological development was high and consumers were embracing indoor shopping? Would malls have to provide technology enabled shopping indoors? What would be the role of service personnel? Would retailers have to reconfigure their stores into self-service, smart stores in a mall setting? A3.9 What kind of world would TP have to contend with in a future where technological development was low and consumers embraced outdoor shopping? Would malls in their current form be rendered obsolete? Would shopping take place in outdoor workshops run by highly skilled and professionally trained workers?

Group 2

A3.3 Logistics and distribution:‘(there will be) multiple touch points between supplier and consumer”“complex supply chain; supplier-consumer convergence’A3.4 Consumer behavior: ‘Consumers will want (products/services) on the same day, want full personalization, potentially buy more’A3.5 Technology: ‘Technological innovation will impact payment systems, speed of delivery/logistics’

A.3.10 What kind of world would TP have to contend with in a future where all shopping was completed online yet customers expected complete customization from their shopping experience? Would malls in their current form be rendered obsolete in this world? Would the existing mall infrastructures be used as collection points and after sales service counters for redressal of grievances? A3.11 What kind of world would TP have to contend with in a future where consumer preferred a standardized shopping experience and online channels were the only retail format available? Would malls function as collection points supporting online channels? Would erstwhile tenants in a mall use their store space in malls to co-ordinate and manage the online transactions for their brands. Could malls in their current form be converted to retailer showrooms supporting online retail channels?

Group 3

A3.6 Consumer issues: There will be a cultural shift and a revolution of aspirations, choices are more individualized, also the duality of necessity/value and luxury/status.

A3.7 Distribution & delivery: ‘There will be an interdependency of all channels – information will be accessed faster, mobile consumption, global delivery networks as well as big brand powerhouses’

A3.12. What kind of world would TP have to contend with in a future where customers preferred homogeneity in their shopping experience and the supply of goods and services was monopolized by a few players? This would be a very challenging environment for malls to operate in, malls all over would have a great degree of sameness, even more so than the present day because consumers would expect sameness/homogeneity everywhere. Would the sole focus in malls centre around the ability to organize, to be efficiency and to replicate? A3.13. What kind of world would TP have to contend with in a future where customers preferred heterogeneity in shopping experiences but there was a monopoly of a few suppliers in the market? Would mall developers have to collaborate with the big players monopolizing the market to create heterogenous experiences for customers? What would be the role of retail tenants in this future?

Appendix 4: Sample of data from flipchart and discussion notes of meeting between TP senior management and research team after the scenario workshop

Summary of discussion notes on the impact of critical uncertainties on the meso level – TP senior management & research team

A4.1‘Consumers will want best product, best experience, want to connect to culture, art (and also) at the international level’ (TP CEO)‘Many aspects of consumer behavior will not change, the emotional function of shoppers, experience which enhances the five senses will motivate them to buy’ (TP Retail Director)‘In the next 10-20 years there will be re-emergence of physical, convergence of physical and digital as well as technological singularity’ (TP Business Development Director)‘The issue will not be online vs. offline but convergence of the best of both stores where offline will experiment with online prices’ (TP retail director)

TP Final scenario framework A4.2 TP Final scenario stories

In the ‘Reliable World’ scenario, the consumer retail experience would be had largely in stores and malls where shoppers would seek interaction with service staff for pre purchase, purchase and after sales service. Consistency in the consumer experience would stem from familiarity and trust in the brands; consumers would seek a familiar experience in the purchase and consumption of these brands on every occasion. Services would be geared towards building relationships with consumers to secure their long-term custom by developing loyalty to product brands and the service as a whole.

In the ‘Craft World’ scenario, the retail experience would not just be limited to shopping but the malls would become experience hubs. There would be a blurred mix of indoor-outdoor retail space. There would be greater and more varied interactions between consumers and service staff with the co-creation and co-design of products and services to meet diverse consumer needs. The service system would be geared to a large extent towards providing experiences for consumers – from street performances to onsite craftmanship with a plethora of services to enhance a greater feeling of community public spaces.

In the ‘App World’ scenario, the diverse consumer retail experiences would be had through customised apps on mobile devices, the interactive use of technology in stores and in malls. Consumer interaction with service staff would be minimal and possibly non-existent. Personnel would be hired to perform back end functions of churning big data to create new apps and customise offerings through apps for consumers during their visit to stores and malls. In such a hi-tech environment, state –of- art technological solutions would enable all retail experiences and basic retail infrastructure would have to be geared to enable this hi-tech interaction with shoppers. Digital innovation might eventually be able to stimulate the human senses and motivate consumers to buy on this basis.

In the ‘Robot world’ scenario, consumers would seek consistency, efficiency and reliability in their interaction with the hi-tech environment. Scope for creativity and customised services would be limited; at best the service system would be geared towards mass customisation and delivered via click and collect services, super intelligent computers (technological singularity) and robotics technology especially for precision and consistency. The physical stores and malls would function more as showrooms and /or warehouses or hi-tech platforms where robotic precision could provide a seamless service in unmanned stores to interested customers.

Appendix 5: Data Sample of Temporal bracketing for LSA data highlighting macro-meso and meso-micro iterations

Phase 1: Before Scenario Research Workshop Apr 2013-Feb 2014 [Data Source: Desk research reports & meetings]

Phase 2: During Scenario Research Workshop & subsequent meetings – March 2014[Data Source: Flipcharts, discussion and meeting notes]

Phase 3: After Scenario Research Workshop [Data Source: Desk research reports]

Macro level

A5.1 Legislative (Policy) Issues:Local interventions have also been suggested against the sale of other controversial products such as energy drinks, fast food, and high fat, salt or sugar foods. Such policies may be [Initial meetings with LSA CEO].

A5.2 Consumer Issues:Consumers are becoming more aware of food wastage issues, and with bulk ordering online, it is difficult to gauge what will be consumed in a particular timeframe.

Customers are overwhelmingly local with 81% having travelled less than one mile and 57% having walked to the shop. Customers also shop frequently, 86% having visited at least once a week’ [LSA Annual report, 2013]

A5.3 Technology: Mainstream smartphone adoption and a growing familiarity with the technology, including word-of-mouth effects

A. Research workshop – Building scenarios[Data Source: Flipcharts & Discussion notes]

B. Meetings with senior managers – Final scenarios[Data Source: Flip charts & Discussion notes]

C. Using final scenarios with employees[Data Source: Discussion notes]

Micro level

Presented in Table 1

Macro level uncertainties [Participants: 3 Workshop stakeholder groups in discussion facilitated by research team]

A5.6 Legislative issues: ‘We are already the police for alcohol and tobacco, what’s next?’ [Group 2]‘Large businesses might adopt the living wage’ [Group 1]‘Changes to the tax and benefits system as well as pressure for a living wage will adversely impact costs.’ [Group 3]

A5.7 Consumer Issues:‘Should we redefine the role as meeting needs rather than selling products’? [Group 3]‘Older, more diverse population is changing the product mix.’ [Group 2]

A5.8 Technology:‘How do you use big data in a small store?’ [Group 2]‘What will happen as there is more digitization of products’ [Group 3]‘There is a risk to certain product categories, such as news, as new methods of distribution are developed.’ [Group 3]‘Increasing deployment of technology in store and pre and post store’ [Group 1]

A5.9 Geo-political issues:‘US dominate trade agreements, will there be nationalist responses?’ [Group 3]‘Relationship of sustainability and globalization, including food and water supply’ [Group 3]

Macro level uncertainties & Initial Macro-Meso interactions [Participants: LSA senior managers and research team in discussion]

A5.16 Impact of legislations on convenience stores:‘Changes to the tax and benefits system as well as pressure for a living wage will adversely impact costs.’‘Financial constraints on SMEs are hindering local development.’‘More chilled food, longer opening hours, more frequent deliveries mean higher energy bills. Is it sustainable?’‘Consumers and businesses face taxation on waste.’‘The government are pushing more planning decisions, alcohol rules and competition issues down to the local level, will this continue?’

A5.17Impact of changing retail formats on convenience stores:‘Supermarkets may not only increase their number of convenience stores but also start wholesaling operations from hypermarkets’

A5.18 Impact of consumer shopping behaviour on convenience stores:‘Consumer expectations keep increasing, wanting everything a large supermarket can offer in a small store at the end of their road.’‘How are consumers going to use online retailing, replacing their main shop or as a complementary channel?’

Final Macro-Meso iterations

1 of 4 Macro - Meso level iterations: ‘Market Circle Scenario’

A5.19 WHAT kind of world would LSA have to contend with in future Scenario ‘Market Circle’, where the relevance of local convenience stores (meso level) is altered as a result of (macro level) consumer requirements changing from buying weekly ‘top ups’ to (instead becoming) complete one stop shopping experiences (critical uncertainty 1) and IF at the same time a new government policy focused on favouring local formats (critical uncertainty 2)’. ‘They would transform the Meso level frame at the time of the research where local convenience stores would become the site for

Meso – micro level interactions [Participants: LSA senior managers, employees in discussion facilitated by research team]

1 of 4 Meso -Micro iterations:

A5.22 How would LSA succeed in a future scenario ‘Market Circle’ (in it’s current role as a lobbying association for local stores) where convenience stores became a site for weekly market circles (at the meso level)? We would need to reconsider our Micro level frame of just being a lobby body for small shops and extend LSA’s membership services to include stall owners and local entrepreneurs and coordinate activities between them and convenience retailers...

2 of 4 Meso – Micro iterations:

A5.23 How would LSA succeed in a future scenario ‘Pick & Serve’ world (in it’s current role as a lobbying association for local stores) where convenience stores started offering café style refreshment services (at the meso level)? We would need to reconsider our Micro level frame of just being a lobby body for small shops and extend LSA’s membership services to provide collaborative platforms between members and companies in the food and beverage industry....

3 of 4 Meso – Micro iterations:

A5.24 How would LSA succeed in a future scenario ‘Çlick & Pick’ world (in it’s current role as a lobbying association for local

are likely to encourage more people to shop in this way

Meso level A5.4 ‘The LSA proposes to establish a cost barometer for the sector to reflect the impact of real and potential changes in cost on their members’ businesses. [Initial meetings with LSA CEO]

Micro level frame A5.5 LSA is a lobbying body for small shops in UK and across Europe [As per Annual Report]

Sample of 3 of 12 iterations across 3 stakeholder groups

Group 1:Macro – Meso Level interaction A5.10 What kind of world would LSA have to contend with when government intervention in retail was high (macro level uncertainty) but consumer preference was for shopping at large regional stores (macro level uncertainty)? (Emergent) Meso frameA5.11 In this world the existence of convenience stores would be threatened? Would they need to collaborate with or sell out to large retailers? Or would they need to reposition their offers and how?

Group 2:Macro – Meso Level interaction A5.12 What kind of world would LSA have to contend with when political control was minimal (macro level uncertainty) but energy costs were low (macro level uncertainty)? (Emergent) Meso frameA5.13 In this world would convenience retailers be able to opportunities to innovate offerings around chilled and frozen products and focus on their core business offerings? Could they differentiate themselves from large retailers by doing so?

Group 3: Macro – Meso Level interactionA5.14 What kind of world would LSA have to contend with where big retail formats were dominant (macro level uncertainty) but at the same time customers wanted personalization during store visits (macro level uncertainty)? (Emergent) Meso frameA5.15 In this world convenience retailers could focus on delivering superior customer service based on trust and long-term relationships with the local customers

hosting revolving market circles. In this (meso level) frame, small stores would offer of everyday items, such as ready meals, milk and bread, and would be supported by a variety of different revolving regional offers that change each day as they move from one local convenience store location to another. These revolving offers will be highly differentiated each selling very different products and services, such as toys, T-shirts, fresh fish, and food-to-go.

2 of 4 Macro-Meso level iterations: ‘Pick & Serve Scenario’

A5.20 WHAT kind of world would LSA have to contend with in a future scenario Pick & Serve world, where the relevance of local convenience stores (meso level) is altered as a result of (macro level) consumer requirements focused on buying weekly ‘top ups’(critical uncertainty) and IF at the same time a new government policy focused on favouring local formats (critical uncertainty)’. ‘They would transform the meso level frame at the time of the research where local convenience stores would focus on offering local services such as café style refreshments and selling local product over and above top-up shopping. The product range is variable depending both on demand for everyday products and the supply availability of local products. The store will typically be run by a local family or the wider community to support their choice of lifestyle.

3 of 4 Macro-Meso level iterations: ‘Click & Pick Scenario’

A5.21 WHAT kind of world would LSA have to contend with in future scenario Click & Pick world where the relevance of local convenience stores (meso level) is altered as a result of (macro level) consumer requirements) focused on buying weekly ‘top ups’ (critical uncertainty) and IF at the same time a new government policy focused on favouring national formats (critical uncertainty)’.‘They would transform the meso level frame at the time of the research where local convenience stores focused on top-up shopping in store with a supporting online offer. Most sales (80% plus) will be direct from the store with regular and specialist items available to pick up in store via an online service ordered in advance by the customer. Within the store, a large range of product categories is available but with little choice within each category unless the supporting online service is utilised. The instore assortment comprises primarily private label products, while branded equivalents are available online for a premium price.

The 4th Macro-Meso iteration is iPermatket scenario, the example used in Table…in the main text

stores) where convenience stores started offering supporting online services over and above the top up shopping opportunities?

A5.25 We would need to reconsider our Micro level frame of just being a lobby body for small shops and extend LSA’s membership services to provide collaborative platforms between members and private brand owners to restructure product offerings. LSA would also have to organize collaborative platforms between members and technology companies to develop the new online platforms…

The 4th Meso-Micro iteration is the example used in Table…in the main text

Appendix 6: Data Sample of Temporal Bracketing of TP data highlighting macro-meso and meso-micro iterations

Phase 1: Before Scenario Research Workshop Oct. 2014-Feb 2015[Data Source: Desk research reports & Meetings]

Phase 2: During Scenario Research Workshop & subsequent meetings – March 2015[Data Source: Flip charts & Discussion notes & meeting notes]

Phase 3: After Scenario Research Workshop[Data Source: Desk research reports]

Meso level

A6.1 Technology:With the proliferation of mobile technology, the gross market value for the mobile shopping sector is also predicted to reach about 3 trillion Yuan by 2017.

A6.2 Physical shopping channels:The Retail Director of TP highlights the significance of shopping centres in multipurpose developments in bringing and holding everything together, including hotel guests, the office users, business people and others [As published in a local Chinese newspaper in 2015]

Micro level frameA6.3TP does not overcategorize consumers in the shopping centres – TPs focuses more on popularity of brands and not price and tries to match the product categories with their attractiveness to those living in the area, whether they gel with the trade mix of each shopping centre [TP’s retail director in a Chinese newspaper in 2012]

Research workshop – Building scenarios [Data Source: Flipcharts & Discussion notes]

Meetings with senior managers – Final scenarios[Data Source: Flipcharts & Discussion notes]

Meetings with employees:Using final scenarios [Data Source: Discussion notes]

Micro level (not considered before)

As presented in Table 2

Macro level uncertainties [Participants: 3 Workshop stakeholder groups in discussion & facilitated by research team]

A6.4 Consumer issues ‘There is a cultural shift and a revolution of aspirations, choices are more individualized’ [Group 3]‘The duality of necessity/value and luxury/status’ [Group 3]

A6.5 Technology‘Interesting digital manufacturing will take place on site’ [Group 1]‘Technological innovation will impact payment systems, speed of delivery/ logistics’ [Group 2]

A6.6 Distribution channels‘(there will be) multiple touch points between supplier and consumer’ [Group 2]‘(there will be) complex supply chain; supplier-consumer convergence’ [Group 2]‘There is an interdependency of all channels – information can be accessed faster by global delivery networks as well as big brand powerhouses’ [Group 3]

A6.7 Retail formats‘There will be ambiguity of what is indoor and what outdoor’ [Group 1]‘Controlled retail environments will become relevant only for emotionally meaningful purchases’ [Group 1]

Macro – Meso Level interaction

Macro level uncertainties & Initial Macro-Meso interactions[Participants: TP senior managers and research team in discussion]

A6.14 Impact of technology on shopping centres:‘Online shopping will change the way retailing works in China.’‘Retailers are wanting to pay lower charges per square foot [of rented space] as sales move online.’‘As online grows, how much should we invest in online versus physical spaces?’‘As online grows, what infrastructure will need to be developed, and what will need to be managed into decline?’

A6.15Impact of changing retail formats on shopping centres:‘How do we know what type of physical space is required in the future? Some brands want more space in malls while others are retreating.”‘We don’t know what direction the sector is moving. Different malls are showing different success. What should we be monitoring?’

A6.16 Impact of consumer shopping behaviour on shopping centres:‘Consumer behaviour is changing. They search on the Internet before coming to the mall.’‘Consumer want different experiences to the past. What should malls offer where?’‘ Consumer behavior is changing fast. We try to keep up with the latest developments but it’s difficult to read the future.’

Final macro-meso interactions

1 of 4 Macro - Meso level iterations: App World Scenario

A6.17 What kind of world would TP have to contend with in a future scenario ‘App World’ if the relevance of retailers (meso level) is altered as a result of shopper behaviour (macro level) becoming diversity seeking (uncertainty 1) and at the same time delivery channels (macro level) becoming hi-tech (uncertainty 2). This would transform the meso level at the time of the research to one where consumer interaction with service staff would be minimal and possibly non-existent. Basic retail infrastructure would have to be geared to enable this hi-tech interaction with shoppers and our focus

Meso – micro level interaction[Participants: TP senior managers, employees in discussion & facilitated by research team]

1 of 4 meso-micro iterations:

A6.20 How would TP succeed in a future scenario ‘App World’in it’s current role as state-of-the-art property developer where experiences in malls were delivered through interactive use of technology in stores. We would need to reconsider our micro level frame of being a state-of-the-art property developer and instead consider our new role as collaborators with telecom operators and tech companies to create necessary hi-tech infrastructure for retail tenants.

2 of 4 meso-micro iterations:

A6.21 How would TP succeed in a future scenario ‘Reliable World’ in it’s current role as state-of-the-art property developer where consumers were primarily seeking consistent brand experiences in malls. We would need to reconsider our micro level frame of being a state-of-the-art property developer and focus on maintaining long term relationships with our retail

[Group1] 1 of 4 macro-meso iterations:

A6.8 What kind of world would TP have to contend with if the relevance of malls changed due to increased consumer preference for outdoor shopping while at the same time there was high technological development in retail?(Emergent) Meso level frameA6.9 TP would have to contend with a world where malls would provide rich cultural experiences through outdoor Atelier type artisan workshops in an otherwise high-tech retail environment.

[Group 2] 1 of 4 macro-meso iterations:

A6.10 What kind of world would TP have to contend with if the relevance of malls changed due consumers preferring consistency in shopping while at the same all shopping took place in physical stores?(Emergent) Meso level frameA6.11 TP would have to contend with a world where malls increasingly operated as warehouse style stores to deliver consistent experiences to shoppers.

[Group 3] 1 of 4 macro-meso iterations:

A6.12 What kind of world would TP have to contend with, if the relevance of malls changed due consumers preference for homogeneity in experiences from a fragmented supplier base?(Emergent) Meso level frameA6.13 TP would have to contend with a world where offerings in malls focused on no-frills products and services with consistent, predictable services.

would have to be on digital innovations which could stimulate human senses and motivate customers to buy on this basis. To succeed in ‘App World’, our focus would have to shift to providing diverse consumer retail experiences through customised apps on mobile devices and the interactive use of technology in stores and in malls.

2 of 4 Macro-Meso level iterations: Reliable World Scenario

A6.18 What kind of world would TP have to contend with in a future scenario ‘Reliable World’ if the relevance of retailers (meso level) is altered as a result of shopper behaviour (macro level) becoming consistency seeking (uncertainty 1) and at the same time delivery channels (macro level) becoming hi-touch (uncertainty 2).This would transform the meso level at the time of the research to one where consistency in the consumer experience would stem from familiarity and trust in the brands; consumers would seek a familiar experience in the purchase and consumption of these brands on every occasion. Services would be geared towards building relationships with consumers to secure their long-term custom by developing loyalty to product brands and the service as a whole. To succeed in ‘Reliable World’ our focus would have to be on the consumer retail experience in stores and malls where shoppers would seek interaction with service staff for pre purchase, purchase and after sales service

3 of 4 Macro-Meso level iterations: Robot World Scenario

A6.19 What kind of world would TP have to contend with in a future scenario ‘Robot World’ if the relevance of retailers (meso level) is altered as a result of shopper behaviour (macro level) becoming consistency seeking (uncertainty 1) and at the same time delivery channels (macro level) becoming hi-tech (uncertainty 2). This would transform the meso level at the time of the research to one where consumers would seek consistency, efficiency and reliability in their interaction with the hi-tech environment. Scope for creativity and customised services would be limited; at best the service system would be geared towards mass customisation and delivered via click and collect services, super intelligent computers (technological singularity) and robotics technology especially for precision and consistency. To succeed in ‘Robot World’ the physical stores and malls would function more as showrooms and /or warehouses or hi-tech platforms where robotic precision could provide a seamless service in unmanned stores to interested customers.

The 4th Macro-Meso iteration is the Çraft World Scenario the example used in Table…in the main text

tenants.

3 of 4 meso-micro iterations:

A6.22 How would TP succeed in a future scenario ‘Robot World’in it’s current role as state-of-the-art property developer where experiences in malls were primarily used as sites for collection of products. We would need to reconsider our micro level frame of being a state-of-the-art property developer and focus on developing hi-tech warehouse cum delivery sites collaborating tech companies and logistics partners of retail tenants.

The 4th Meso-Micro iteration is the Craft World example used in Table…in the main text

Appendix 7: Visual Mapping of scenario research process in LSA case with a sample data set

Appendix 8: Visual Mapping of scenario research process in TP case with a sample data set

Appendix 9a – Group allocation in LSA scenario workshop

Sectors Wholesale Third party experts (Public policy; market research)

SupplierBusiness

Retail Business(SME)

IndependentEntrepreneur

LSA Executive

Group 1 1 middle manager

1 senior civil servant

Product supplier - 1 middle manager

1 owner Service station-1 owner

Chief executive officer

Group 2 1 owner 1 Research manager- market research

Service supplier –1 middle manager

1 middle manager

Local store –1 owner/CEO

Public relations director

Group 3 1 middle manager

1 digital media –middle manager

Service supplier –1 owner

2 middle managers

1 chief operating officer

-

Appendix 9b – Group allocation in TP scenario workshop

Sector Retail product supplier

Retail trade association

Retailer Architect/designerAcademic

TP executives

Group 1 1 country manager

- 1 country manager & 1 middle manager

1 Architect Chief executive officer

Group 2 1 owner 1 middle manager

1 consultant & 1 middle manager

1 Academic Business development director

Group 3 1 owner 1 chief executive officer

1 country manager & 1 middle manager

1 Designer Retail director