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DEFENDINGHUMANITYATSEA

AREDEDICATEDANDPROACTIVESEARCHANDRESCUEOPERATIONSATSEAA“PULLFACTOR”FORMIGRATIONANDDOTHEYDETERIORATEMARITIME

SAFETYINTHECENTRALMEDITERRANEAN?

“Migrantsinboatsaresymptoms,notcauses,oftheproblem”

JovanaArsenijevic/MarcelManzi/RonyZachariah*MédecinssansFrontières,OperationalResearchUnit(LuxOR)68RueDeGasperich,Luxembourg

*Correspondence:rony.zachariah@brussels.msf.org

(WithcontributionsfromStefanoArgenziano,FedericaZamatto,AureliePonthieu,WilmavanDenBoogaard,MarcoBertotto,ChristopheHebting,PaulDelaunois,SamuelSiebler,CatherinevanOverloop,Alesandro

Siclari,FranciscoDeBartolomo…)

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FOREWORDThisreporthasbeenelaboratedbyMédecinssansFrontières (MSF)andthefindingscorroboratewithtwootherstudiesfocussedonmigrants’mortalityatseaandsearchandrescueactivities:BlamingtheRescuers:criminalizingsolidarityandre-enforcingdeterrenceiBorderdeathsintheMediterranean:Whatwecanlearnfromthelatestdataii.Eachoftheseindependentstudies–usingdifferentmethods-hasconducteddatabasedanalysisleadingtorathersimilarconclusions.SUMMARYBOX

WhatpromptedMSFandotherNGOstogotosea?

• Duetothelackofalternativeoptions,tensofthousandsofpeopleembarkonperilousseajourneysthroughtheCentralMediterraneantoEuropeforvariousreasons.

• Inlate2014,Italyretreatedfromitslarge-scalerescueoperation(MareNostrum)andtheEUreplaceditwiththeFrontexOperationTritonreportedlyleadingtothousandsdyingatsea.

• AsfromMay2015,Non-GovernmentalOrganizations(NGO’s)includingMSFsteppedinwithhumanitarianvesselstofillthisgap.Theywerelaterin2016metwithaccusationsbyFrontex,EUpoliticiansandthemedia.

Whataretheaccusationsagainstthehumanitarianactors?

• Dedicated“SearchandRescueoperationsconductedbythehumanitarianvesselssareservingasa“pullfactor”formigrants/refugeestoattemptdangerousseajourneys“

• “SuchSearchandRescueoperationshavecontributedtoadeteriorationofmaritimesafetybyincreasingdeathsandmissinginthecentralMediterranean”

• NGOsconductingdedicatedandproactivesearchandrescuearecolludingwithsmugglersWhatanalysisispresentedinthisreport?

• Acomparativeanalysisoftrendsinattemptedseacrossingsiiiandadverseseaoutcomes(deaths+missing)inrelationtothreeperiods:theoperationalphaseofMare-Nostrum,theoperationalphaseofTriton-onlyandtheperiodofinvolvementofhumanitarianvesselsinsearescues.

Whatarethekeyfindingsfromthisreport?

• Theyearlypatternofattemptedseacrossings(2014-2016)suggestsa‘temporal/seasonaltrend’ofmigrationwitha9-17%fluctuationperyear.Thisratherlowleveloffluctuationisnotsupportiveofanymajorpullfactorforpeopletakingtosea.

• Trendsinattemptedseacrossingswerejustabout1.6%highersincetheinvolvementofhumanitarianvesselscomparedtotheTriton-onlyperiod.Thisfurthernegatesthesuggestionthatthepresenceofhumanitarianvesselswasamajorincentive(pullfactor)forattemptedseacrossings.

i https://blamingtherescuers.org/ accessed on Aug 31st 2017 ii https://www.law.ox.ac.uk/research-subject-groups/centre-criminology/centreborder-criminologies/blog/2017/03/border-deaths accessed on Aug 31st 2017 iii Attemptedseacrossings:istobeconsideredasthecumulativefigureofthosewhoarrivedtotheItaliancoasts+thosewhowererescuedanddisembarkedtoItaly+thereporteddead/missingatsea+thenumberofthoseinterceptedbytheLibyancoastGuardsatseaandbroughtbacktotheLibyanshores

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• Duringtheactivityofhumanitarianvessels,comparedtotheTriton-onlyperiod,adverseseaoutcomesdecreasedfrom39/1000attemptedseacrossingsto16/1000–a59%improvementinmaritimesafety.

• OvereightintenboatsrescuedbyMSFduringtheirhumanitarianinvolvementwererubber-boatsthatwereovercrowdedupto5-foldtheircapacity.Withsuchoverloading,thesevesselsaretobeconsideredindistressaccordingtoEuropeanstandardsfromthemomenttheylaunch.MovingrescueassetsclosertotheLibyancoastrespondstoapre-emptivehumanitariannecessitytopreventdeaths.

Whatarethemainconclusions?

• Theaccusationslevelledagainstthehumanitarianvesselsarenotsubstantiatedbyevidence.Therewasnomajorincreaseinattemptedseacrossingsduringtheperiodofinvolvementofthehumanitarianvessels(aswouldbeexpectedbythepullfactorhypothesis).

• Importantly,theinvolvementofhumanitarianvesselswasassociatedwithasignificantimprovementinmaritimesafetycomparedtootherperiods.Withouttheseboats,thecountsofdeadandmissingatseawouldlikelyhavebeenconsiderablyhigher.Thepro-activesearchandrescuebyhumanitarianvesselshavethusplayedacrucialandlife-savingrole.

Limitations/Furtherresearch

• Datapresentedinthisreportisobservationaldataanddoesnotdemonstratedirect‘cause-effect’.Thefindingshighlightstatistical‘associations’.Assuch,itisimpossibletoisolatethespecificrole(s)playedbyhumanitarianvessels(vis-à-visotheractors).

• Specificresearchisneededtobetterunderstandthebackgrounddriversofmigrationwhicharecomplexandgobeyondthenaïvediscourseofpull/pushfactors.

Theaccusationthathumanitarianrescuersareapullfactorformigrantsisakintosayingthat“NGOs

workinginarefugeecamparethereasonforrefugees.”

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THE“MUSTKNOW”BEFOREREADINGTHISREPORT

§ Mediterraneansearoutesformigration:o CentralMediterraneanroute: fromNorthAfricatoItalyandMalta.o WesternMediterraneanroute:whichreachesSpainfromNorthWestAfrica,o EasternMediterraneanroute:fromTurkeytoGreece.Figure:RoutesforirregularmigrationthroughtheMediterraneanSea

• Maritimezoneso Internalwaters:anation'sinternalwatersincludewatersonthelandwardsideofthe

nation'sterritorialwaters.Itincludeswaterwayssuchasriversandcanals,andsometimessmallbays.

o Territorialwaters:isabeltofcoastalwatersextending12nauticalmiles(22.2km)fromthebaseline(usuallythemeanlow-watermark)ofacoastalstate.Authorizationfromnationalauthoritiesisneededtoenterthesewaters.

o Contiguouszone:Liesadjacenttotheterritorialseabutupto24nauticalmiles(40,7km)fromthebaselinesfromwhichthebreadthoftheterritorialseaismeasured.Withinthecontiguouszonethecoastalstatemayexercisethecontrolnecessarytoprevent/punishinfringementofitsfiscal,immigration,orsanitarylawswithinitsterritoryorterritorialsea.

o Internationalwaters(HighSeas):includesallpartsoftheseathatarenotincludedintheTerritorialseaorintheinternalwatersofastateFigure:Maritimezones

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§ OperationMare-Nostrum (Period:October2013-Oct2014):wasayear-longnavalandairoperationcommencedbytheItaliangovernmentonOctober18,2013afterthegreatlymediatizedLampedusashipwreckof3rdOctober2013when368migrantsdiedofftheItaliancoast.[1,2]Theoperationaimedtoidentifyboatsindistressandthenlaunch-aproactive“SearchandRescue”operationwithapolicingandanti-smugglingcomponentiv.Significanthumanandfinancialmeanswereplacedatitsdisposal(Assets:onethousandpeople,sixnavalunits,helicoptersequippedwithinfra-redlights,maritimepatrolaircrafts,dronesandcoastalradars.[1]Cost=9million/month).ThankstoMareNostrum,atleast150,000migrantliveswererescued.MareNostrumendedinOctober2014,largelybecauseofalackofEuropeanUnionsupportandbeingconsideredapullfactorformigration.ItwassupersededbyFrontex's“OperationTriton”.

§ Operation(Frontex1,TritonOnlyperiodNov2014-April2015):Tritonisabordersecurity

operationconductedbyFrontex,theEuropeanUnion'sbordersecurityagency.UnlikeMareNostrum,OperationTritonaimedonborderprotectionratherthansearchandrescue,andoperatedclosertotheItaliancoast(Assets:twofixedwingsurveillanceaircraft,threepatrolvessels,twocoastalpatrolvessels,twocoastalboatsandonehelicopter.Cost=4.6million/month).[3]Searescueswererelegatedtoonlywhatisroutinelydemandedbymaritimeobligationswithnodedicatedandproactive“SearchandRescue”operations.TheterminationofMareNostrumhasbeencriticizedforanine-foldincreaseindeathsatseabetween2014and2015,[2].TritonsawanextensionofitsoperationalscopeandbudgetinApril2015(TritonII).HoweverasfromMay2015dedicatedSearchandRescuebythehumanitarianvesselsstartedandweconsiderthepost-Triton1perioddifferentfromaproactiveSARperspective.

§ OperationSophia.EuropeanUnionNavalForceMediterranean(EUNAVFORMedv,Period:May2015todate):TheEU’slaunchedamilitaryoperationknownasSophiaaimsto‘disruptthebusinessmodelofhumansmugglingandtraffickingnetworksintheCentralMediterranean’byeffortstoidentify,captureanddisposeofvesselsusedorsuspectedofbeingusedbysmugglers.Theoperationpriorityisapprehendingsmugglersratherthanrescuingthemigrantsthemselves.OperationSophia’scontributiontoSearchandRescuehasalwaysbeensecondarytotheirintelligenceandanti-smugglingmandate.(Assets:5navalunitsand5patrolaircrafts.Cost1million/Month)[4]

iv Asperofficialsources(http://www.marina.difesa.it/cosa-facciamo/operazioni-concluse/Pagine/mare-nostrum.aspx)theanti-smugglingcomponentofMareNostrumledtoidentifyandhandovertoItalianJudiciaryPolice366allegedsmugglers,15vesselswereinspected/boardedonsuspicionofbeinginvolvedinsmuggling,9shipswereapprehended,ofwhich5weremotherships.v The Mission operates under the UNSecurityCouncilResolution2292(ChapterVIImandate)

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OperationSophiahasthreephases o Phase1(June2015-October2015):surveillanceandassessmentofhumansmugglingand

traffickingnetworksintheMediterranean.o Phase2(October2015todate):board,search,seizeanddivertvesselsonthehighseas

usedforhumansmuggling(Phase2A)andthenmovethesameoperationstoLibyanterritorialwaters(Phase2B).Sophiaiscurrentlyinphase2A.TrainingoftheLibyancoastguardwasmandatedinJune2016

o Phase3:disposalofvesselsandrelatedassets,preferablybeforeuse,andtoapprehendtraffickersandsmugglersonLibyanshores.

§ Humanitarianvesselsinvolvement(PeriodMay2015todate)vi.MSFintroducesthreeboats

(TheArgos,Dignity1andPhoenixincollaborationwithMOAS).MSFsearchandrescueoperationsarecoordinatedbytheItalianMaritimeRescueCoordinationCenter(IMRCC).MSFpatrolsininternationalwatersataround20nauticalmilesoffthecoastofLibyaduringtheday,movingclosertoterritorialwatersifinstructedtodosobytheIMRCCoriftheybecomeawareofaboatindistress.

§ In2016severalotherNGOsjoinedthehumanitarianvesselsmakingatotalofaboutadozenboatsatsea(Seawatch,Seaeye,JugendRettet,Proactiva-Openarms,Bootvlucth,andSavetheChildrenetc.)(Totalcost=unavailable).

§ Intheory,allhumanitarianactorsoperateadedicatedandproactiveSearchandRescueactivity:theirintendedmissionistosavelivesatseaandtheytrytopositiontheiroperationalassetsintheareaswheretheriskoflossoflivesisconsideredhigher.

§ ThesehumanitarianactorsoperateparalleltotheTritonMissionandOperationSophia,thathaveafocusonbordercontrolandanti-smuggling.

vi The Migrants Offshore Aid Station (MOAS) launched its rescue ship “Phoenix” on August 25th 2014 and run operations till October of the same year.

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BACKGROUND• TheItalianstate-led“MareNostrum”,whichwasadedicated“SearchandRescue”operation

endedinOctober2014[1,2].ThiswaslargelyduetoalackofEuropeanUnionsupportandtheoperationbeingconsideredapullfactorformigrants.

• ItwassupersededbyFrontex's“OperationTriton”whosemandateinvolvedcontrollingEuropeanborderswithoutanydedicated“SearchandRescue”.On25thApril2015,thePresidentoftheEuropeanCommission,Jean-ClaudeJunckersaid“ItwasaseriousmistaketobringMareNostrumoperationstoanend.Itcosthumanlives”[5]Asabufferresponse,inMay2015,MédecinsSansFrontières(MSF)launcheditsowndedicatedSearchandRescueoperationswithmedicallyequippedshipshavingacapacityofcarrying400to700people.[6]MSF’sobjectivewastotrytosavehumanlivesatsea,pragmaticallyacceptingavicariousroleofresponsibilitiesofStates’.

• Inlate2016,politiciansandofficialsinEUmember-states(Italy,BelgiumandAustria)madethefollowingallegationsinthemedia[7,8]:1. “DedicatedandProactiveSearchandRescueoperationsconductedbyhumanitarian

vesselsserveasa“pullfactor”formigrants/refugeesleadingtomoremigrantsattemptingdangerousseacrossings”

2. “DedicatedandProactiveSearchandRescueconductedbythesehumanitarianactorshascontributedtoadeteriorationofmaritimesafetybyincreasingdeathsandmissinginthecentralMediterranean”

OBJECTIVESOFTHISREPORT.

ToassessifdedicatedandproactiveSearchandRescueOperationsbyhumanitarianactors(includingMSF)haveservedasapullfactorformigrantsandcontributedtoadeteriorationofmaritimesafety(deathsandmissing)intheCentralMediterranean.

METHODSDesign:Acomparativeanalysisinrelationtoperiodsbeforeandaftertheinvolvementofthehumanitarianvesselsinmaritimerescue.Studyperiods

• Jan2014toOct2014vii:TheMareNostrumperiod• Nov2014toApril2015:TheTriton-onlyperiod• May2015toDec2016viii:MSFandotherhumanitarianorganizationsgetinvolved(the

humanitarianvesselsperiod)

viiThecomparisonofperiodsisbasedondatafromtheInternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM),whichisavailableconsistentlyfromJanuary2014.AsnoIOM-datawasavailableforNovemberandDecember2013,weusedavailabledatafromtheMaritimeRescueCoordinationCentre(MRCC)andothersources.Whilethesenumbersarelikelytounderestimateattemptedseacrossingsduetounrecordeddeathsormissingpersons,itallowedustoreducetheriskofanon-inclusionbiasincomparingtheoperationalperiodsofMareNostrum,Triton,andhumanitarianvesselsinvolvement.viiiDatacensuratthetimeofanalysiswasDecember2016.

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Datasources(databases):• InternationalOrganisationforMigration(fordataonshipwrecks,diedandmissingfromJan

2014andinterceptionsbytheLibyanCoastGuardin2016)• MaritimeRescueCoordinationCentre,Rome(fordataonrescuesandactors)• MSF(fordataondedicatedSearchandRescuebyMSF)

Datalimitations

• Adverseseaoutcomes(reportedmissinganddeaths)arelikelytobeunderestimatesoftherealsituationasnotalldeathsandmissingarelikelytohavebeenascertained

• “Missingatsea”arelikelytobedeaths.Sincethetrueoutcomeisunascertained,wehaveusedtheterm“adverseseaoutcomes”implyingacombinationofdiedandmissing.

• Alldataonadverseoutcomesandattemptedseacrossingsshouldbeconsideredestimatesasascertainmentbiasislikely.

Dataanalysis

• Trendanalysisusingexcelgraphicsfordatavisualization• Standardizationofadverseseaoutcomes(died+missing)per1000attemptedseacrossingsix• SpatialmappingofshipwrecksandrescuesusingGeographicInformationSystem• Estimationofdifferenceinproportionsandrelativerisksasappropriate

RESULTS1. GeographicrepresentationofshipwrecksanddeathscentralMediterraneanmigrantroute.

§ Atotalof225adverseseaincidents(includingshipwrecksandothereventsleadingtodeathandmissingatsea)wereregisteredbyIOMduringtheperiod2014-2016.Adverseseaincidentshereimplyalltypesofboatsirrespectiveofsize(rubberdinghy’swoodenboatsincluded).ThemediannumberofadverseseaincidentspermonthduringMare-Nostrumwas4,duringTriton-onlywas3andduringtheinvolvementofhumanitarianvesselsitwas7.

Figure1:Cumulativeadverseseaincidentsandrelateddeaths/missing(January2014-December2016)–pleaseclickonPDFinsertbelow.

Fig_1_sea_incidents_tot_A1_170630_V3.pdf

Observations/conclusions§ ThereisadiffusespatialdistributionofadverseseaincidentsimplyingthattheentireCentral

Mediterraneanisaffected.§ DuringtheMare-Nostrum(purplecircles)andTriton-only(redcircles)periods,therewasa

clusteringofincidentstowardsthemiddleoftheCentralMediterranean.Thenumbersof

ixAttemptedseacrossings:istobeconsideredasthecumulativefigureofthosewhoarrivedtotheItaliancoasts+thereporteddead/missingatsea+thenumberofthoseinterceptedbytheLibyancoastGuardsatseaandbroughtbacktotheLibyanshoresx A larger deployment of humanitarian vessels may have led to an increased ability to witness the occurrence of smaller scale events, which would have gone otherwise unnoticed.

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deaths(sizeofcircles)duringthesameperiodswerealsolargerwhichmayimplylargerboat-capacityandsize.

§ Duringthehumanitarianvesselsperiod,mostoftheincidents(circles)aresmallandlikelytoimplysmallerboatcapacityandsize(smallernumbersofpeoplereporteddeadormissing)x.ClusteringofincidentsisseenclosertotheLibyancoast(thecontiguouszone).

§ ThesefindingsmayberelatedtotheimpactofOperationSOPHIAPhase2A(HighSeas),wheresmugglerscannolongerrecoversmugglingvesselsonthehighseas,renderingthemalesseconomicoptionforthesmugglingbusiness.Thus,theymayincreasinglyoptforsingle-usagerubberboatassetswhicharelessrobustandmorepronetosinking.[9,10]SuchboatsarebeingbulkshippedfromChina.[11]Anecdotalreportssuggestdecreasingqualityoftherubberboatsused,anincreasedtrendofmassivelaunchingofseveralvesselsatthesametime,andlessfuel,foodandwaterprovidedonboard.

§ ThepresenceofhumanitarianSearchandRescueassetsclosetotheLibyancoastmayalsohaveaffectedthedynamicofnewsmugglerpracticesbutspecificdatainthisregardislacking.

2. Accusation1:IsdedicatedSearchandRescueoperationsa“pullfactor”formigrants/

refugees”

Inordertoassessthe‘pullfactor’hypotheseswefirstvisualizetheseasonaltrendinmigrationperyearbetween2014and2016(Figure2.1).

BecausemigrationisindeedseasonalasseeninFigure2.1,withmorearrivalsinsummerthaninwinter,otherthingsbeingequal,wecompareequivalentmonthsstratifiedbytypeofseaoperationstoadjustforseasonality.ThuswecomparetotalnumberofattemptedseacrossingsduringtheTriton-onlyperiod(November2014–May2015),toequivalentperiodsofMareNostrum(November2013–May2014)andhumanitarianvesselsinvolvementperiods(November2015–May2016).

Ifthe‘pullfactorhypothesis’istrueweshouldexpectmoreattemptedseacrossingsduringtheMareNostrumandthehumanitarianvesselsperiodsthanduringtheTriton-onlyperiod.

x A larger deployment of humanitarian vessels may have led to an increased ability to witness the occurrence of smaller scale events, which would have gone otherwise unnoticed.

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Figure2.1:Trendsin“allattemptedseacrossingstoassessseasonaltrends”(Periods:Mare-Nostrum,Triton-onlyandhumanitarianvesselsinvolvementandbyyear2014-2016)

Datasource–IOM.AllattemptedSeacrossings=Died+Missing+arrived+RescuedbyLibyancoastguard

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Observations• Theoveralltrendofattemptedseacrossingsbetween2014and2016issimilar.• Thereisarelativelylowleveloffluctuationintotalnumbersofattemptedseacrossingsby

yearwhichsupportsatemporalpictureratherthanoneinfluencedbythepresenceofseaoperations:

o 2014–173218o 2015–156249Fluctuationof9-17%using2014asreferenceo 2016–202297

Figure2.2Trendsin“allattemptedseacrossings”comparingequivalentperiodsofMare-Nostrum,Triton-onlyandNGOinvolvement(humanitarianvessels)toadjustforseasonalvariationsIfdedicatedSARoperationsencouragemorepeopletogotosea,wewouldexpectmoreattemptedseacrossingsduringMare-NostrumandthehumanitarianvesselsinvolvementperiodscomparedtotheTriton-onlyperiod.

Datasources:DeathsattheBorders:DatabasefortheSouthernEU(fordeathsNov-Dec2013)

IOMfordeathsandmissingfromJan2014

ArrivalsdatafromUNHCRexceptforNov/Dec2013wheretotalrescuesfromMRCCwasused–likely

underestimate.

LibyanCoastGuardrescuedata–IOM

Observations§ TheattemptedseacrossingsintheTriton-onlyperiodwas44%higherthanduringMare-

Nostrum.DuringthehumanitarianvesselsperiodcomparedtotheTritononlyattemptedseacrossingswasjust1.6%higher.ThisshowsthatthereisnoevidencetosuggestthatthepresenceofhumanitarianvesselsperformingproactiveandanddedicatedSARisassociatedwithanysignificantpullfactor.

GeneralConclusions• Thepatternofattemptedseacrossingssuggestsalargelytemporal/seasonalmigration

pattern.Thetypeofseaoperationsper-sedoesnotseemtodetertheoveralltrendofmigration.

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• Thefactthatattemptedseacrossingswerejustabout1.6%higherinthehumanitarianvesselsperiodcomparedtotheTriton-onlyperiodsuggeststhatthereisnoevidenceofNGOsbeingassociatedwithbeingapullfactor.

• Datasuggestthatpeoplearethusattemptingseacrossingsirrespectiveofthetypeofseaoperations.Driversofmigration(conflict,prosecution,drought,povertyetc.)arelikelytobeplayingamoreimportantrolethanthetypeofsearchandrescueoperations.Theallegationsbuiltagainsthumanitariansearchandrescueeffortsarenotevidence-basedandfailtoconsiderthebackgroundcomplexityofmigrationdynamics.

• Thepull/pushfactorargumentsthusignorethecomplexityofmigratorymovementsandessentialaspectssuchas

o Thefactthatmigratoryjourneysarefragmentedandnotlinearo Thatmultiplefactorsimpactthedecisiontomoveandthatmigrantsoftenhavevery

littleknowledgeofEuropeanpolicieso Thatpeoplehaveveryrarelyaclearplanregardingtheirfinaldestinationo ThatthemajorityofpeoplecrossingtheseatoEuropehavetransitedthroughLibya

becauseoflackofalternatives.3. Accusation2:IsdedicatedSearchandRescueoperationsbythehumanitarianvessels

contributingtoadeteriorationofmaritimesafetyintheCentralMediterranean”Figure3.1.Adverseseaoutcomes(diedandmissing)standardizedby1000attemptedSeaCrossings(periods:MareNostrum,Triton-onlyandhumanitarianvesselsinvolvement)

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Table3.1.Dataonadverseseaoutcomes(diedandmissing)standardizedby1000attemptedSeaCrossings(periods:MareNostrum,Tritonandhumanitarianvesselsinvolvement) Period Arrivalsto

Italyandallrescued1

TotalDied&Missing

Attemptedsea

crossings2

Died&Missing/1000attemptedSeacrossings2

MareNostrum Jan14-Oct14 154073 3048 157121 19Triton-only Nov14April15 42255 1730 43985 39Humanitarianvessels

May15-Dec16

325343 5315 330658 16

1IncludesarrivalsinItalyandrescues/interceptionsdonebytheLibyanCoastGuard2Attemptedseacrossings=ArrivalsinItaly+RescuedbyLibyanCoastGuard+DiedandMissing3Standardizedusingtotalattemptedseacrossingsduringtherespectiveperiods(Totaldiedandmissing/arrivals+rescuedbyLibyanCoastGuard+died+missing*1000)Observations• Thestandardizedadverseseaoutcomes(deaths+missingper1000attemptedseacrossings)

increasedby2.1foldfollowingwithdrawalofMare-NostrumandaretreatfromdedicatedSAR(Tritonperiod).

• Inthesubsequenthumanitarianvesselsperiodtheseadverseseaoutcomesimprovedsignificantly(59%decreasefromTritonperiod,Relativerisk0.41,95%CI0.23-0.72,P=0.002).Publichealthimpact:Triton-onlyperiod: 1adverseseaoutcome*forevery26attemptedSeacrossingsHumanitarianvessels: 1adverseseaoutcomeforevery63attemptedSeacrossings

(*adverseseaoutcome=death+missing)

Conclusions§ Theperiodwiththehumanitarianvesselswasassociatedwitha59%improvementin

maritimesafetycomparedtotheTriton-onlyperiod.Thereisalsoa16%improvementinrelationtotheMare-Nostrumperiod.

§ Thefactthat5315deathsstilloccurredin2016impliesthattherearepersistenthumanitariangapsinSearchandRescueoperationsintheabsenceofsafealternatives,peoplewillcontinuetolosetheirlives.Maritimesafetyneedstobefurtherimprovedandsotoointroductionofsafeandlegalchannelsformigrationtocovertheseunacceptabledeaths.

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Figure3.2.RelativecontributionofNGOstorescuesmadeinthecentralMediterraneanduring2016?

Source:MaritimeRescueCoordinationCommittee,Rome.

Observations.§ TherelativecontributionofNGOStoSearchandRescuein2016(Redline)hasincreased

significantlyfromquarter1toQuarter4of2016(ChiSquareforlineartrendP<0.0001)

Table3.2.RelativecontributionofhumanitarianvesselsseaoperationstorescuesmadeinthecentralMediterraneanduring2016 Rescuesin2016a

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total %ItalianCoastguard 6931 10795 8923 9226 35875 20ItalianNavy 6676 10360 16323 4592 37951 21Frontex 1028 5107 4309 3172 13616 8Merchantships 555 6661 2813 3859 13888 8NGOsincludingMSF 323 10563 17267 18653 46806 26Sophiab 3510 7531 10476 8396 29913 17Total 178049aDataonrescuesbefore2016stratifiedbyactorswasnotavailable

bIncludesothermilitaryboats

Observations.§ 46,806(26%)rescues(roughlyoneinthree)wereconductedbyhumanitarianvesselsboatsand

theywerethemostimportantsingleactorin2016.MSFdid21,224oftheserescues

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GeneralConclusions

§ Datafrom3.1and3.2aboverebutstheaccusationbypoliticiansandthemediathatdedicatedSearchandRescueoperationshavecontributedtodeteriorationinmaritimesafety.Onthecontrarytheyhaveplayedacruciallife-savingrole.

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FOCUSONMSFFigure3.3a.Trendin“typeofboats”and“peoplerescued”byMSFduring2015and2016.

Observation

• ThereisanincreasedtrendinnumbersofrubberboatsandpeoplerescuedbyMSFin2016.

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Table3.3.“Typeofboats”and“peoplerescued”byMSFduring2015and2016.

Boattype Numberofboatsn(%)

Peoplerescuedn(%)

Averagepeople/boat

2015

Rubber 97(78) 10510(52) 108

Wooden 28(22) 9389(48) 335

Total 125 19899

2016

Rubber 128(84) 15694(78) 122

Wooden 25(16) 4395(22) 176

Total 153 20089

Observations• 153boatswererescuedbyMSFin2016comparedto125in2015(a22%increaseinrescueof

boatsindistress).In2016therewerealsomoreboatsbutalmostthesameoverallnumbersof

peoplerescued(19899in2015comparedto20089in2016).

• 2016sawa6%increaseinnumbersofrubberboatsrescued(78%to84%)butthenumberof

peoplefoundinrubberboatsin2016was26%higherthanin2015.

• Theaveragenumberofpeopleinrubberboatsalsoincreasedby13%(to122/boat)in2016

(comparedto2015).Asthecapacityofrubberboatsisestimatedat25-60persons(fora8-11

meterboat),estimatedoverloadingis2to5fold!.Theserubberboatsarealsoconsideredless

robustandlikelytodeflaterenderingthemaseriousriskforthoseonboard.[12]

Figure3.3b.TypeofboatsandnumbersrescuedbyMSF

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Observations

• TheRelativeRiskofbeingrescuedbyMSFinarubberboatin2016comparedtoawoodenboat

was1.48(95%CI=1.46-1.50,P<0.001)–implyinga48%increasedprobabilityoffindingpeople

inrubberboatsatthetimeofrescuein2016.

Possiblereasonsforincreasedprobabilityoffindingpeopleinrubberboatsin2016

§ OperationSOPHIAPhase2A(HighSeas),andLibyancoastguardactivitiessincemid-2016[7]

meantthatsmugglerscannolongerrecoverwoodenorothersmugglingvesselsonthehigh

seas,renderingthemalesseconomicoptionforthesmugglingbusiness.Smugglersmay

thushaveoptedforsingle-usedisposableassets(rubberboats).Thiswasalsoreportedby

EUNAVORMED[10].Rubberboats(madeinChina)areavailableat300-800USDon

Alibaba.com.[12]• DestructionofwoodenboatsbyOperationSophiamayalsohavereducedthegeneral

availabilityofwoodenboats.[7,10]

• ThepresenceofSARassetsclosertotheLibyancoastmayalsohaveinfluencedsmuggler

practicesbutwehavenospecificdatatosubstantiatethisclaim.

Humantraffickersareusingrubberdinghieswhichareavailableforafewhundred

dollarshttps://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/High-Quality-Refugee-Boat-Inflatable-

Pontoons_60606629063.html

AdvertonrefugeeboatsMadeinChinaonAlibaba.com.https://www.alibaba.com/product-

detail/High-Quality-Refugee-Boat-Inflatable-Pontoons_60606629063.html

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3.4.IsgeographicpositioningofMSFclosetotheLibyancoastjustified?Figure3.4a.Geographicrepresentationofadverseseaincidentsanddeaths/missing(May2015-

December2016)–pleaseclickonPDFinsertbelow.(Totalnumberofincidentsatsea=162)

Fig_3.4a_sea_incidents_SAR_A1_170630_V3.pdf

Figure3.4b.GeographicrepresentationofMSFrescues(May2015-December2016)–pleaseclickon

PDFinsertbelow.

Fig 3.4b. MSF_rescue_A1_170703.pdf

Observations

§ ThereisadiffusespatialdistributionofadverseseaincidentsintheentireCentral

MediterraneanwithclusteringclosetotheLibyanborderparticularlyaroundAzZawyahand

Tripoli.

§ Of162seaincidents,67(41%)werelocatedinareaswhereMSFconductedrescues.ThisimpliesthatMSFisoperatinginareasofhigherdangerandimminentlossoflives.

§ Thefactthatincidentsarealsohappeninginhighseas(Fig3.4a)stillraisesaquestionof

geographicequityandtheneedtoconsiderrationalizationofsearchandrescueoperations

withotherpartners.

Conclusions• MSFdedicatedsearchandrescuesareclusteredaroundthesameareaofconsiderable

clusteringofadverseseaincidents(includingshipwrecks).Currentpositioningwouldthus

maximizethe“preventiveeffect”ondeaths.• Furthermore,84%ofboatsin2016wererubberboatsthatwereovercrowdedtoupto5

foldtheircapacity.Withinthisback-drop,EUNAVFORMEDhasrecognizedthatmigrant

vesselsaretobeconsideredindistressaccordingtointernationalconventionsfromthe

momenttheylaunch.[7,10]MovingNGOSARassetsclosertotheLibyancoastthusrespondstoapre-emptivehumanitarianimperative.

20

GENERALCONCLUSION/KEYMESSAGES

HavehumanitarianvesselsincludingNGOslikeMSFbeen“pullfactor”formigration?

• ThepatternofattemptedseacrossingsduringMare-Nostrum,Triton-onlyandhumanitarian

vesselsperiodssuggestsatemporal/seasonalmigration.Ineffect,peopleareattempting

seacrossingsandarenotdeterredbythetypeofseaoperationspresent.“Pushfactors”or

driversofmigrationsuchasconflict,prosecution,droughtandpovertyarelikelytobe

playinganimportantrolewithinacomplexmilieuofotherfactorsassociatedwithmigration.

• Ifthe‘pullfactorhypothesis’hadgrounds,thetotalnumberofattemptedseacrossings

shouldbeconsiderablyhigherduringthehumanitarianvesselsperiodcomparedwiththe

equivalentperiodofTriton-only.Thiswasnotthecase,negatingthehypothesisthatthe

dedicatedsearchandrescuewasthemainincentive(pullfactor)formigrants/refugees.

• ContinuedincreaseinmigrationintheWesternMediterraneanrouteby46%(datanot

presentedinthisreport)wheretherearenodedicatedSearchandRescueoperationsadds

supporttothisthinking.

HasdedicatedSearchandRescueoperationscontributedtoadeteriorationinmaritimesafety?

• Thehumanitarianvesselsinvolvementwasassociatedwithasignificantimprovementin

maritimesafetycomparedtotheTriton-onlyperiod.Standardizedadverseseaoutcomes

(deaths+missing)fellsignificantlyfrom39/1000attemptedseacrossingsto16/1000during

Triton–a59%improvementinmaritimesafety.

• Thehumanitarianboatsalsorescued46,806people(acorollarymanneroflookingatthis

wouldbetoconsiderthem“averteddeaths”).Withouttheseboats,thenumbersofdeath

andmissingatsea”wouldhavebeenconsiderablyhigher.

IsthepositioningofMSFboatsclosetotheLibyancoastjustified?

• Of162adverseseaincidentsthathappeningduringthehumanitarianvesselsinvolvement

period,67(41%)werelocatedintheMSFpositionedarea(aroundAzZawyahandTripoli).

• In2016,thegreatmajority(84%)ofboatsrescuedbyMSFwereovercrowdedrubberboats

floatingwithaloadthatwas5foldtheircapacity.Withsuchdegreeofoverloading,migrant

vesselsaretobeconsideredindistressaccordingtointernationalconventions[13]fromthe

momenttheylaunch.MovingrescueshipsclosertotheLibyancoastthusrespondstoapre-

emptivehumanitariannecessity.

21

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