April 30,2004Space Solar Power Workshop1 Photovoltaics for Today and Tomorrow “Evolving World of Environment, Energy, & Geospatial Information " JSEM,

April 30,2004 Space Solar Power Workshop 1

Photovoltaics for Today

andTomorrow

“Evolving World of Environment, Energy, & Geospatial Information "

JSEM, May 23, 2007Columbus, Ohio

Darel Preblechair, Space Solar Power Workshopwww.sspi.gatech.edu


The first solar powered satellite, Vanguard I, was launched with the first solar cells providing 10 mW of power on March 17, 1958. It broadcast for six years.


Both solar thermal and photovoltaic (PV) are important solar power sources.Either provides “peaking power” for about 25-30% of the day. The US solar market is 95% photovoltaic. We will focus on PV at JSEM today. – www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/may2007/id20070517_232155.htm?chan=innovation_innovation+%2B+design_top+stories


August 31,2006 Space Solar Power Workshop 5

PV cell and module production (2006)

While the PV industry has been facing a severe silicon feedstock shortage during 2006, production of cells and modules continued strong growth. Since 2004, average contract prices for securing long-term supplies of polysilicon have skyrocketed, more than doubling to $70 per kilogram.

Sharp maintained its top position, followed by Germany's second-place Q-Cells, which reduced Sharp’s lead. Japanese producers dropped from 46% to 39% share globally, to the benefit of Chinese cell manufacturers. -- Research and Markets, Apr 25, 2007 (www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c55075)

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• 2006 world PV production up 30 percent to 2.1 GW

• About 0.03% of worldwide electricity is generated from photovoltaic power.

• Total renewable generation in the U.S. is projected to grow by 1.5 percent per year, from 357 billion kilowatthours in 2005 to 519 billion kilowatthours in 2030 (EIA - AEO2007).


The World's largest solar boat competition

Nearly 900 students on 41 teams competed in the fifth annual Solar Cup competition sponsored by the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California at Lake Skinner. The three-day event was the result of a six-month education program in which high school students applied engineering and math skills, and learned about water conservation and resource-management. The teams were sponsored with grants of $3,000 by local water agencies, municipalities, service clubs and other supporters. Diamond Bar High School's team took home the Solar Cup first-place traveling trophy for the second consecutive year -- this year winning the new Veteran category.


PV Performance Breakthoughs

• Sandia National Labs measured SunPower's SPR-315 solar panel at the highest recorded conversion efficiency ever tested by Sandia for a commercially available, mass produced solar panel. Sandia measured the efficiency of Sunpower’s SPR-315 solar panel at 19.7 percent, with an actual power output of 321.65 watts.

• PHOTON Magazine's "Buyers Market Module Survey" states that SunPower holds the efficiency record for production solar cells and panels. - “SunPower Modules Recognized for Superior Quality and Efficiency”, San Jose, Calif., April 18, 2007 SunPower Corporation (SPWR) www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BDB1EF76B%2D6546%2D413A%2D98E3%2D455E5EA7F9A9%7D

http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/spwr


PV Performance Breakthoughs (cont) Boeing-Spectrolab created a solar cell with 40.7%

conversion efficiency - "the highest efficiency level any photovoltaic device has ever achieved“. - “Solar cell breakthrough claimed”, Thomas Claburn, www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=196602149

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PV Performance Breakthoughs (cont)

Rice University's Center for Biological and Environmental Nanotechnology has revealed a new method for producing quantum dots that could enable better, cheaper solar panels. Principal investigator Michael Wong’s new method making four-legged cadmium selenide quantum

dots much more easily. -“Quantum dot recipe may lead to cheaper solar

panels”, Houston, May 2, 2007 www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-05/ru-qdr050207.php#


PV Performance Breakthoughs (cont.)•

Researchers at Wake Forest University's Center for Nanotechnology and Molecular Materials have doubled the efficiency of flexible organic or plastic solar cells to more than 6 percent in less than two years. Efficient plastic solar cells are extremely desirable because they are inexpensive and light weight, compared to traditional silicon solar panels. - “Plastic solar cell efficiency breaks record at Nanotechnology Center”, 19-Apr-2007, www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-04/wfu-psc041907.php


Wal-Mart Stores purchases solar arrays from BP Solar, SunEdison LLC, and PowerLight

Solar power arrays will be installed on 22 of Walmart’s stores and warehouses in Hawaii and California. When fully implemented, the aggregate purchase could be one of the U.S., if not the world's, top-10 largest ever solar power initiatives. Each solar power system will provide up to 30 percent of the store’s power. Walmart’s new solar arrays will be maintained under a long term energy supply contract, while keeping the Renewable Energy Credits. - “Wal-Mart to Install Photovoltaic Systems on 22

Stores”, May 7, 2007 www.solarbuzz.com/News/NewsNAPR796.htmand www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7BF55F08E4-7472-4DBA-942D-3BFEF3192954%7D&siteid=nbk


PV market installations show Germany continues to lead the race.

Spain grew by 200% in 2006 and the US by 33%, thanks to Congress extending the 30% solar energy investment tax credit for U.S. homeowners through the end of 2008 and major state PV legislation led by California’s Solar Initiative (CSI) -


California Solar Initiative

• 3.3 Billion dollars to create 3,000 megawatts of new, solar electricity by 2017- www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/csi

• Residential and commercial customers will receive incentives of $2.50 per watt and will be eligible for additional federal tax credits.

• Government and non-profit organizations will receive $3.25 per watt to compensate for their lack of access to the federal tax credit as non-taxable entities.

• Incentives for solar energy systems greater than 100 kilowatts will be paid monthly based on the actual energy produced over five years. Starting in 2010, those incentives change to systems over 30 kilowatts.


www.dsireusa.org


May 16 the Department of Energy announced the first round winners of Solar America Showcases (SAS) for FY 2007 technical assistance. SAS is part of President Bush’s Solar America Initiative to make solar energy cost competitive by 2015. A new call for SAS proposals will close on July 10. The DOE will help evaluate the technical feasibility of:

• Forest City Military Communities, Oahu - “Residential Hybrid Solar Electric & Thermal Systems in Hawaii.” - incorporating hybrid solar-thermal electric systems.

• Orange County, Florida, for “Photovoltaic Demonstration and Research Facility & Family Learning Center.” - placing an 800-kW photovoltaic system on Orange County Convention Center, the second largest convention center in the southeastern U.S.

• City of San Jose, California, for “Smart Solar Initiative.” - multiple large building complexes in San Jose for solar photovoltaic and thermal applications.


While average retail solar modules are relatively stable, thin-film prices are continuing to show aggressive pricing, now 31% below crystalline module prices (May 2007). Analysts expect this trend to continue, as thin-film uses 100 times less material.


The total market for commercial solar cell production equipment will grow from $1.2 billion in 2006 to $4.5 billion in 2010, primarily for the older industry segments c-Si (crystalline silicon) and amorphous silicon (a-Si).

“The real growth in the solar cell market will be in equipment for newer thin film technologies; cadmium telluride (CdTe - 26% of thin-film market) and Copper Indium (Gallium) Diselenide (CIGS - 10% of thin-film market). Key innovations are roll-to-roll equipment and printable CIGS inks instead of sputtering and CVD.”

- Information Network, New Tripoli, Penn.


Compound annual growth rates of c-Si and a-SI will be around 40% between 2006 and 2010, while CdTe is projected

to exhibit a CAGR of nearly 75 percent, and CIGS a strong 200 percent. - “Solar gear market shines”, by Mark LaPedus, EETimes, from

www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=198701402

Chateau Montelena Winery is installing a new 220 kW solar system. www.solarbuzz.com/News/NewsNAPR794.htm

http://www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=198701402

http://www.solarbuzz.com/News/NewsNAPR794.htm

http://www.solarbuzz.com/News/NewsNAPR794.htm



The "warnings could not be more alarming," said Rep. Edward Markey, D-Mass., chairman of the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Climate Change, "but this report also gives much reason for hope. We know what we need to do to protect the planet. The only question is whether we have the wisdom to do so in

time to make a difference." - “Climate Plan Arms World for Key

Talks”, Associated Press, By Michael Casey, May 4, 2007 www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/05/04/ap3688144.html


“It will require more than a decade to transition our civilization away from our heavy dependence on oil. Nothing close to the efforts envisaged have yet begun.

- Testimony by Robert Hirsch, SAIC, at the Pentagon and U.S. Congressional Committee on Energy and Commerce hearing, from the "Hirsch Report", commissioned by the Department of Energy -http://energycommerce.house.gov/108/hearings/12072005Hearing1733/hearing.htm and "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management www.netl.doe.gov/otiic/World_Oil_Issues/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf


The most current and authoritative research predicts global oil production to peak during the 2008 to 2018 timeframe. We will never "run out" of petroleum; "In a worst-case scenario, global oil production may reach its peak in 2008, before starting to decline. In a best-case scenario, this peak would not be reached until 2018. These estimates are made by Fredrik Robelius, whose doctoral dissertation estimates future oil production". - www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/03/070330100802.htm and www.peakoil.net/GiantOilFields.html


The most current and authoritative research predicts global coal production to peak around 2025."Peak coal by 2025 say researchers", by Dr. Werner Zittel and Jörg Schindlerwww.energywatchgroup.org/files/Coalreport.pdf


We have until now considered -“Peaking units”, such as wind or terrestrial solar, may provide power for 25-30% of a good day, (on average). Space Solar Power (SSP), however, is “baseload” available 99% of the year from GeoSynchronous Orbit. (Baseload nuclear or coal plants, typically running 24/7, are actually available only 90% of the year.)

SPS requires no fuel and has no operations personnel – it is an antenna – with farms underneath. SSP is the cleanest source of virtually unlimited baseload energy.


Clean? Safe? Reliable? Baseload?

Fossil Fuel No Yes Decades remaining Yes

Nuclear No Yes Fuel very limited Yes

Wind Power Yes Yes No, intermittent No

Ground Solar Yes Yes No, intermittent No

Hydro Yes Yes No; drought; complex scheduling

Bio-fuels Yes Yes Very limited quantities - competes directly with food production. *

SSP Yes Yes Yes Yes


"We are in the beginning stages of major changes to agricultural markets caused by rapidly expanding production of bio-fuels.“

– Credit Suisse Group, in “Corn Is Booming as Ethanol Heats Up”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116260858542413472.html

Although that is only one-seventh the quantity President Bush foresees for 2015, that demand has pushed corn to near-record prices. “If all the corn produced in America in 2005 were dedicated to ethanol production it would reduce U.S. demand for gasoline by, at most, 12 percent...

– “A bumper crop of unintended consequences”, http://news.bostonherald.com/editorial/view.bg?articleid=180746


"75,000 Mexicans stood up in Mexico City’s giant Zocalo plaza to denounce the rising price of tortillas...

“Calderon stole the elections, and now he’s stealing the tortillas!” screamed a banner... To reach Bush’s 20 percent goal, corn production must grow to 167

percent of its 2005 levels, and every kernel must go into ethanol. Corn is also the major feed/ingredient for chickens, pigs, cattle; milk, cheese, eggs, hamburger, Coke, Pepsi, Jack Daniels, etc., ... By weight, a McDonald’s hamburger is 52% corn. - “A bumper crop of unintended consequences”, February 3, 2007 http://news.bostonherald.com/editorial/view.bg?articleid=180746


“The 111 ethanol refineries now in operation, the 75 under construction or expansion, and others still being planned, would be able to use 10 billion bushels of corn a year by 2009 — about the same as the entire 2006 crop. The price of pig feed has gone up 25 per cent since the US summer, he said, "and it's not the price so much as the fact that it's just not available“ - Dave Warner, National Pork Producers Council.

"The days of the United States meat industry in its current state appear to be numbered. The gates are down. The lights are flashing. Does anyone see the train coming?" - " David Nelson,

agribusiness analyst for Credit Suisse Group. - “Ethanol fuels concern of US farmers“ http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/ethanol-fuels-concern-of-us-farmers/2007/01/28/1169919212154.html


2002 2005 What should be America’s Goal in Space?

32% 35% Build satellites in Earth orbit to collect solar energy to beam to utilities on Earth

23% 17% Develop the technology to deflect asteroids or comets that might destroy the Earth

13% 10% No Opinion

4% 10% Send humans to Mars

2% 7% Search for life on other planets

6% 7% Build a human colony in space

3% 6% Develop a passenger rocket to send tourists into space

5% 4% Build a base on the moon for humans to use for moon exploration

11% 2% None of the above, we should stop spending money on space

1% 2% None of the above

- Thomas Matula and Karen Loveland, " Public Attitudes toward Different Space Goals: Building Public Support for the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) “, Proceedings of Space 2006: 10th International Conference on Engineering, Construction, and Operations in Space, Houston, TX, March 5-8, 2006.


Space Solar Power

No other energy alternative can so fully, cleanly and directly address so many of the dangerous, complex and intractable threats we face:

I. Peak Fossil Fuels – increasing competition for declining global oil

production; energy cost; energy security; nuclear proliferation; energy-associated terrorism.

II. Escalating climate change – drought, increasing wildfires and hurricanes, famine, flooding. Food or Fuel production dilemma- rising food costs - declining nutrition in our food;

“We truly are standing at the edge of mass extinction” of species. - Co-author Terry Root of Stanford University.

“Things are happening and happening faster than we expected,” - Co-author Patricia Romero Lankao, National Center for

Atmospheric Research. - “Climate report sounds dire warnings - Gobal warming effects could mean hundreds of millions without water” March 10, 2007, Associated Press www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17554963/


There is a tried and true vehicle, that could initiate SSP construction today.

A private Congressionally chartered corporation has all the requisite advantages. Comsat Corp., chartered in 1962, opened space for communication satellites - when we knew little about space, rockets or space communications. Communications satellites are now a $100 Billion industry per year. The “Sunsat Act” would accomplish the same task, creating a space solar power industry of much greater size.


No company(s) or agency(s), however, is prepared to assume the immense financial risk of initiating construction of an SSPS.

There are simply too many engineering, financial, regulatory and managerial risks for any group we have been able to identify to undertake SSP today.

But this road has been well traveled by America before ...


Trans-Continental Railroad “Cape Horn at The Head of The Great American Canon”,

…- Frank Leslie's Illustrated Newspaper, April 27, 1878


More recently, Congress chartered Comsat Corp.in 1962 to build communications satellites. Comsat Corp. opened space to the diverse $100+ Billion per year communications satellite business of today. Congress should charter a new corporation, Sunsat Corp. to build power satellites. Draft legislation for Sunsat, very much like Comsat, would have all the requisite advantages. We recommend that congress charter Sunsat Corp.


This legislation would provide a launch “subsidy” to new private or public/ private businesses, such as SunSat Corp, which are contracting for space transportation. These would be in the form of stock transfers and loan guarantees. Zero cost

Sunsat Corp. is aiming for 42,000 flights per year, nominally. Prices would quickly fall below current levels once subsidies established such a market volume. (By comparison Atlanta & Chicago each had a million takeoffs & landings.)


Prices drop as flight rate increases

The red dots below are Elon Musk, SpaceX, $1300/lb and Sandia National Laboratories

$20/lb - “Space Sunshade Might Be Feasible”, Nov. 3, 2006, http://uanews.org/cgi-bin/WebObjects/UANews.woa/wa/MainStoryDetails?ArticleID=13269

http://uanews.org/cgi-bin/WebObjects/UANews.woa/wa/MainStoryDetails?ArticleID=13269

April 30,2004 Space Solar Power Workshop 38Source: Ken Zweibel, NREL


SSP would revitalize America by showing that a multitude of space-development-related-educational-fields, from telerobotics to wireless power transfer and environmental sciences, are vitally relevant to these great problems.

Greatly reduced launch costs, the key enabler, will provide unprecedented access to space and space operations including products we can merely dream of today, beginning with SSP - offering clean reliable baseload power delivery and global energy security.

Choosing to charter an SSP corporation would be another “giant leap for mankind.”


FOR MORE INFO...

Draft legislation for the Sunsat Act is available at www.sspi.gatech.edu/sunsat-how.pdf

Learn more at www.sspi.gatech.edu

Email: [email protected] Or [email protected]


Thank you for the opportunity to speak here at JSEM about clean baseload solar power – SSP.

Space Solar Power can cleanly repower earth and build a highway to the High Frontier…

Integrated Symmetrial Concentrator, Pat Rawlings http://64.40.104.21/sps/large/ISC_in_GEO.lrg.jpg


SkyWorker an autononous robot for multi-kilometer size space structures

Credit – Red Whitaker, CMU Robotics, http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/projects/skyworker/temp/skyworker2.mpg


The Sun is Shining on SolarThe Sun is Shining on Solar

Documents

April 30,2004Space Solar Power Workshop1 Photovoltaics for Today and Tomorrow “Evolving World of Environment, Energy, & Geospatial Information " JSEM,