Approaches for Climate Change Mitigation and

Adaptation Adaptation in Japanin JapanJapan’s 2nd National Workshop on Economics of

Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth Strategies in Northeast Asia

November 4, 2010

Yutaka MatsuzawaGlobal Environment Research Office,

Global Environment Bureau,Ministry of the Environment, Japan

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Outline of Today’s presentation Update on approaches for Climate Change Mitigation and

Adaptation in Japan MitigationPolicy: Basic Law Fusion of science and policy: Development of Road Map Scientific research: Low Carbon Society

AdaptationPolicy: Guidance of Climate Change Adaptation in

Central and Local level, etc. Scientific research: S4 project to S8 project

International CooperationAPAN, APNCo-benefit

Mitigation – policy approachesBill of Basic Act on Global Warming Countermeasures

The Cabinet decided on the Bill in October, 2010. The bill was re-submitted to the present Diet session.

Mid- and Long-term Goals• 25% CO2 reduction below 1990 level by 2020

(premised on the establishment of a fair and effective international framework by all major economies and agreement on their ambitious targets)

• 80% CO2 reduction below 1990 level by 2050• Raising the share of renewable energy(RE) out of total primary

energy supply to 10% by 2020Key Policy Measure

• Introduction of domestic emission trading scheme (ETS) within around a year

• “Greening tax ” system, including the consideration of a global warming tax to be implemented from 2011

• Feed-in Tariff (FIT) system for whole renewable energy

Mitigation – policy approachesRoadmap toward 2050

-Draft proposal by Former Environment Minister Sakihito Ozawa for public consultation (Announced on March 31, 2010)

-Setting milestones for measures and policies necessary for a mid-term and long-term goal

-Draft proposal has been closely examined at Environment Council

Mitigation – policy approachesRoadmap toward 2050

Daily Life －100% achievement rate of a high energy efficiency standard

for all newly built homes and buildings in 2020 / 100% achievement rate of zero emission homes and buildings for all newly built homes and buildings in 2030

－2.5 million units sales of Next-generation Vehicles in 2020 Community Development

–10% reduction of per passenger automobile use Manufacturing

– Reduce energy usage 30- 40% by 2050 Energy Supply

－10% of primary energy supply to be renewable energy sources by 2020

Core Social System for Creating Low-Carbon Society － Domestic emission trading scheme, Global Warming Tax

Projection at Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sectorin 2020 and 2050 (unit: million tons of CO2)

1990

2005

2007

2008

2020(converted tomacro*1)

2020(fixed macro*2)

2050

Industrials ResidentialCommercialand other Transport Non‐energy

Energy Conversion

Daily Life / Community Development±0% at 1990

-25%

-80%

*1: “Case of all sectors converted to macro frameworks” based on the pricing of carbon.*2: “Case of industrials sector fixed to macro frameworks”

*3: Ratio of emissions cut to 2008.

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(Possibly includes international contributions and sinks)

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Pathway to 80% Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2050 compared to the Emissions in 1990

Description of Pathway which will minimize total cost from 2010 to 2050

Million tons of CO216%-21%

reduction in 2020

30%-36% reduction in

2030

51%-56% reduction in

2040

When GHG domestic reduction will be achieved in 2020 respectively -15%, - 20%,and - 25% compared to 1990, in each case how will effect on GDP.GDP percent change and its difference ratio against BAU(business as usual; +4% GHG emission compared to 1990) 【 compared to 2005 】

GHG(compared

to 1990)

compared to 2005

GDP loss

(vs. BAU)

BAU(+4%)

25.9% －

-15% 24.6% (－1.4%)

-20% 23.7% (－2.2%)

-25% 22.2% (－3.7%)

Effect on GDP

GHG(compared

to 1990)

compared to 2005

GDP loss

(vs. BAU)

BAU(+4%)

21.6% －

-15% 21.1% (－0.4%)

-20% 20.9% (－0.6%)

-25% 20.7% (－0.9%)

◎Estimation １ ◎Estimation 2

88Estimated by Prof. Toshihiko Masui in NIES Estimated by Prof. Kanemi Ban in Osaka Univ.

Research needs Evaluation of “cost” toward LCS: cost, insurance or

investment? Evaluation of economic impacts of early actions of

mitigation based on, e.g., game theory. Guideline for appropriate interpretation of the results of

economic modeling Appropriate combination of top-down and bottom-up

modeling Research on the potential of GHG reduction and

appropriate policy measures to enhance mitigation in developing countries.

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Mitigation – policy approachesRoadmap toward 2050

Mitigation – Scientific approachesDevelopment of Low Carbon Society

Scenarios Toward 2050Conducted by NIES etc. funded by MOEJJapan Scenarios: Developed in 2004-2008, updated until nowContributed to international agreement in G8, etc. Provide 80 % reduction scenarios in 2050

Asia Scenarios(ongoing research):Country Scenarios: India, Thailand and Vietnam Local Scenarios: Iskandar (Malaysia), Jilin (China)

and Ahmedabad (India)

Please Visit: http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index.html

Adaptation – policy approachesApproaches to Climate Change Adaptation

-Draft Guidance for ministries and local government-

Draft guidance focuses on common issues: knowledge, process of the plan-do-see

Draft guidance is being developed by officers /experts from different relevant ministries

Draft guidance proposes:Early, first action based on existing knowledgeFuture plan-do-see process Integration of the adaptation action into

existing policies, plans, actions

Adaptation – policy approachesApproaches to Climate Change Adaptation

-Draft Guidance for ministries and local government-

Common Knowledge to be shared by different sectorsClimate change observations and projections Impact assessments of CC and its observationsMethodology of plan-do-see processCommunication strategy

Possible cross-sector integrated policy actions including adaptation actions Integration into Local development plan, etc.

Coordination among sectors for adaptation plans and actions

Adaptation – scientific approachesContributions of Scientific community

Climate change and its impacts in Japan (1996, 2001)S4 project (2005-09), other climate model projectsInnovative program of climate change projection for the

21st century [Kakushin program] (2007-2011)Wise Adaptation (2008)Climate change and its impact in Japan (2009)S8 project (2010-14)Climate Change Impact Statistics (to be constructed

by 2014)

International Cooperation Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research Capacity building of scientific institutions in

developing countries Promotion of International research project in the

region Asia Pacific Climate Change Adaptation Network Adaptation knowledge management Facilitation of adaptation knowledge application Informing Development/investment plan to support

adaptation approaches Assistance of developing countries to access

adaptation financial mechanisms

International cooperation Co-benefits cooperation initiated by MOEJ Japan-China (2007-) Japan-Indonesia (2007-) Japan-Thailand Japan-Malaysia EST by UNCRD Manual for quantitative evaluation of the co-

benefits approaches to climate change (2009)

Asian co-benefits Partnership (2010?) Co-benefits approaches to climate change

adaptation as well as mitigation (20XX?)