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Applied Economic Policy Design in a Developing Nation Abu Dhabi - UAE. Dr. Thomas Kemp University of Wisconsin – Eau Claire. The Region. People and Places. People and Places. Basic Macroeconomic Data. GDP – 620,316,000,000 AED (169 Billion USD) GDP Growth Rate – 15.9% - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
Applied Economic Policy Design in a Developing Nation
Abu Dhabi - UAEDr. Thomas Kemp
University of Wisconsin – Eau Claire
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
The Region
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
People and Places
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
People and Places
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
Basic Macroeconomic Data GDP – 620,316,000,000 AED (169 Billion USD) GDP Growth Rate – 15.9% Oil Share of GDP – 49.7% Per Capita GDP – 315,300 AED (86 Thousand USD) Non-Oil Exports - 11,610,900,000 AED (3.1 Billion USD) Imports – 86,574,100,000 (23.5 Billion USD) Currency – Dirham – Pegged to Dollar at a constant
3.675/1
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
Foreign Trade Data Primary Exports
– Oil and Refined Petroleum Products
– Transport Vehicles– Plastics, rubber, and
articles thereof– Base metals and
articles of base metals
Primary Imports– Machinery– Transport Vehicles– Base Metals and
articles of base metals– Plastics, rubber, and
articles thereof– Products of the
Chemical or allied industries
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
History Recent
– Originally seven separate Emirates under the protection of Great Britain. (Trucial States)
– Gained Independence and Seven Emirates came together to form the UAE in 1971.
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
Task: Determine the Economic Impact of the Maritime Sector on GDP of the Emirate
Issues;– No Employment Data by
industry beyond 1 digit ISIC
– No Wage Data by industry beyond 1 digit ISIC
– No Value Added or Output Data beyond 1 digit ISIC
– Reluctance to Share Data by All Parties
– No clear definition of the “Maritime Sector”
What to Do?– Normal methods for
determining economic impact are not possible.
– Studies in other sectors have been done using European data.
– Other studies still simply “estimate” impacts based upon those in other parts of the world.
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
Never Say Die Result: “On this basis
direct revenues are about 3.2% of annual GDP while indirect revenues account for another 2.7%. There is no accounting within this report of induced impacts as the data necessary to determine them is not available at this time.”
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
Getting There First Assess: What do
we know?– Building the
relationships» Statistic Bureau» Ports Authority» National Authorities» Ports Users» Tourism Authority
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
Next Steps What can we say and what
can’t we say?– Only revenue data – Can’t
express as value added.– What exactly is the
Maritime Sector? – need to define.
– Some of our data is based upon studies that are not available and can not be scrutinized. Year 1909 1919 1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
45000000f(x) = 0.00142163 x⁶ − 0.431399 x⁵ + 48.5197 x⁴ − 2455.05 x³ + 57007.8 x² − 522081 x + 1212600R² = 0.994754311294212
World Production World Production
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
Being Diplomatic Combining the two [direct and indirect impacts] gives us some idea about what the
economy would look like were there no maritime sector in the Emirate. That is, about 6% of the current Abu Dhabi economy is either directly involved with or wholly dependent upon the maritime sector. That said, it is almost certain that the total impact of the sector is significantly larger than this. Known employment in the sector (excluding fishermen) is over 3,500 individuals.
Ideally these amounts should be expressed in terms of value added rather than total revenues. The data is not available at this time to make these calculations. We therefore must make the problematic assumption that revenues equal value added. At such time that SCAD has the necessary data available a new study should be done. The below study should therefore be seen as a stopgap attempt to get some idea about the scope and scale of the maritime sector within the Emirate of Abu Dhabi.
See section nine (9) for the methodological problems associated with this assumption.
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
Some Principles Saying “not possible” is not
always an option. Understand the objective –
most people don’t speak “Econ.”
Building local human resources is critical.
Be clear about results. Make polite suggestions about
how to improve data.
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
Questions?