35
83 Appendix C: Forecast Tables

Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

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Page 1: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

83

Appendix C: Forecast Tables

Page 2: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

84

TABL

E 1

U.S.

SHO

RT-T

ERM

ECO

NOM

IC FO

RECA

STS

FISC

AL Y

EAR

2019

FISC

AL Y

EAR

2020

FISC

AL Y

EAR

2021

ECON

OMIC

VAR

IABL

E1S

T. Q

TR.

2ND.

QTR

.3R

D QT

R.4T

H. Q

TR.

1ST.

QTR

.2N

D. Q

TR.

3RD

QTR.

4TH.

QTR

.1S

T. Q

TR.

2ND.

QTR

.3R

D QT

R.4T

H. Q

TR.

Real

Per

sona

l Con

sum

ptio

n Ex

pend

iture

per

Cap

ita

(2

012

$)39

,766

39,8

0740

,181

40,3

9340

,590

40,7

8640

,975

41,1

5541

,335

41,5

1141

,676

41,8

30Ye

ar o

ver y

ear c

hang

e0.

7%0.

4%3.

8%2.

1%2.

0%2.

0%1.

9%1.

8%1.

8%1.

7%1.

6%1.

5%

Refin

ers'

Acqu

isitio

n Co

st -

Aver

age

(Dol

lars

per

bar

rel)

59.6

157

.03

63.6

058

.60

54.4

252

.67

54.3

850

.60

44.9

443

.65

44.2

946

.61

Year

ove

r yea

r cha

nge

-44.

6%-1

6.2%

54.6

%-2

7.9%

-25.

6%-1

2.2%

13.6

%-2

5.1%

-37.

8%-1

1.0%

6.0%

22.7

%

Cons

umer

Pric

e In

dex

(198

2-84

equ

als 1

00)

252.

825

3.3

255.

125

6.3

257.

825

8.9

260.

426

1.3

261.

826

2.9

264.

326

6.0

Seas

onal

ly A

djus

ted

Annu

al R

ate

1.5%

0.9%

2.9%

1.8%

2.4%

1.6%

2.4%

1.4%

0.7%

1.7%

2.2%

2.6%

Sour

ce: I

HS M

arki

t

Page 3: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

85

TABL

E 2

U.S

. LO

NG-

TERM

ECO

NO

MIC

FO

RECA

STS

REAL

GRO

SS

DOM

ESTI

C PR

ODU

CT

REAL

PER

SON

AL

CON

SUM

PTIO

N

EXPE

NDI

TURE

PER

CAP

ITA

CON

SUM

ER P

RICE

IN

DEX

REFI

NER

S'

ACQ

UIS

ITIO

N C

OST

AV

ERAG

EFI

SCAL

YEA

R(B

illio

ns 2

012

$) (2

012

$)(1

982-

84=1

.00)

(Dol

lars

per

bar

rel)

Hist

oric

al20

1015

,500

34,1

652.

1774

.61

2015

17,3

2236

,907

2.37

56.6

920

1617

,600

37,6

542.

3939

.12

2017

17,9

8438

,369

2.44

48.1

620

1818

,523

39,3

062.

5063

.72

2019

E18

,961

40,3

162.

5459

.71

Fore

cast

2020

19,3

4940

,877

2.60

53.0

220

2521

,199

44,2

472.

9164

.02

2030

23,5

8148

,266

3.25

83.5

120

3525

,946

52,2

463.

6293

.65

2040

28,3

7456

,213

4.03

104.

20

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

92.

3%1.

9%1.

8%-2

.4%

2019

-20

2.0%

1.4%

2.1%

-11.

2%20

20-3

02.

0%1.

7%2.

3%4.

6%20

20-4

01.

9%1.

6%2.

2%3.

4%So

urce

: IH

S M

arki

t

Page 4: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

86

TABL

E 3

INTE

RNAT

ION

AL G

DP F

ORE

CAST

S BY

TRA

VEL R

EGIO

N

GRO

SS D

OM

ESTI

C PR

ODU

CT(In

Bill

ions

of 2

015

U.S

. Dol

lars

)

CALE

NDA

R YE

ARCA

NAD

A

EURO

PE /

AF

RICA

/

MID

DLE

EAST

LATI

N A

MER

ICA

/ CA

RIBB

EAN

/

MEX

ICO

JAPA

N /

PAC

IFIC

BA

SIN

/ C

HIN

A /

OTH

ER A

SIA

/ AU

STRA

LIA

/ N

EW

ZEAL

AND

WO

RLD

Hist

oric

al20

101,

400

21,2

734,

613

18,9

3464

,293

2015

1,55

723

,157

5,17

424

,341

74,3

5420

161,

572

23,6

785,

164

25,5

2876

,380

2017

1,62

224

,319

5,25

926

,852

78,9

6920

181,

655

24,8

255,

329

28,1

6381

,501

2019

E1,

682

25,1

485,

365

29,4

0183

,598

Fore

cast

2020

1,70

725

,467

5,42

730

,649

85,7

1920

251,

844

27,8

246,

026

38,0

2798

,396

2030

2,01

230

,621

6,99

546

,429

113,

523

2035

2,19

733

,599

8,15

555

,186

129,

347

2040

2,40

236

,756

9,48

764

,810

146,

485

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

92.

1%1.

9%1.

7%5.

0%3.

0%20

19-2

01.

5%1.

3%1.

2%4.

2%2.

5%20

20-3

01.

7%1.

9%2.

6%4.

2%2.

8%20

20-4

01.

7%1.

9%2.

8%3.

8%2.

7%So

urce

: IH

S M

arki

t web

site

, GDP

Com

pone

nts

Tabl

es (I

nter

im F

orec

ast,

Mon

thly

)

Page 5: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

87

TABL

E 4

INTE

RNAT

ION

AL G

DP F

ORE

CAST

S –

SELE

CTED

ARE

AS/C

OU

NTR

IES

GRO

SS D

OM

ESTI

C PR

ODU

CT(In

Bill

ions

of 2

015

U.S

. Dol

lars

)

CALE

NDA

R YE

AR

NO

RTH

AMER

ICA

(NAF

TA)

EURO

ZON

EU

NIT

ED

KIN

GDO

MJA

PAN

CHIN

AHi

stor

ical

2010

18,7

4511

,187

2,65

14,

179

7,47

320

1520

,951

11,6

672,

930

4,39

010

,916

2016

21,2

9611

,887

2,98

64,

412

11,6

5020

1721

,814

12,2

073,

043

4,50

912

,436

2018

22,4

2712

,437

3,08

54,

524

13,2

5520

19E

22,9

0512

,583

3,12

34,

573

14,0

71

Fore

cast

2020

23,3

5312

,697

3,14

24,

586

14,8

8720

2525

,553

13,5

123,

341

4,77

319

,420

2030

28,4

6514

,397

3,59

65,

001

24,5

3120

3531

,361

15,2

983,

861

5,22

729

,558

2040

34,4

4116

,201

4,13

45,

460

34,8

79

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

92.

3%1.

3%1.

8%1.

0%7.

3%20

19-2

02.

0%0.

9%0.

6%0.

3%5.

8%20

20-3

02.

0%1.

3%1.

4%0.

9%5.

1%20

20-4

02.

0%1.

2%1.

4%0.

9%4.

3%So

urce

: IH

S M

arki

t web

site

, GDP

Com

pone

nts

Tabl

es (I

nter

im F

orec

ast,

Mon

thly

)

Page 6: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

88

TABL

E 5

U.S

. CO

MM

ERCI

AL A

IR C

ARRI

ERS1

TOTA

L SCH

EDU

LED

U.S

. PAS

SEN

GER

TRAF

FIC

REVE

NU

E PA

SSEN

GER

EN

PLAN

EMEN

TS (M

illio

ns)

REVE

NU

E PA

SSEN

GER

MIL

ES (B

illio

ns)

FISC

AL Y

EAR

DOM

ESTI

CIN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

TOTA

L D

OM

ESTI

CIN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

TO

TAL

Hist

oric

al20

1063

577

712

555

231

786

2015

696

9078

762

926

189

020

1672

693

820

663

265

928

2017

744

9784

168

427

195

520

1878

110

088

072

028

11,

001

2019

E81

310

391

775

229

21,

044

Fore

cast

2020

858

106

964

795

304

1,09

920

2594

511

91,

065

889

347

1,23

520

301,

049

141

1,19

099

940

61,

405

2035

1,15

916

71,

326

1,11

947

21,

591

2040

1,27

119

71,

468

1,24

454

51,

789

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

92.

8%3.

3%2.

8%3.

4%2.

6%3.

2%20

19-2

05.

5%2.

7%5.

1%5.

8%4.

1%5.

3%20

20-3

02.

0%2.

9%2.

1%2.

3%2.

9%2.

5%20

20-4

02.

0%3.

1%2.

1%2.

3%3.

0%2.

5%So

urce

: For

ms

41 a

nd 2

98-C

, U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtat

ion.

1 Sum

of U

.S. M

ainl

ine

and

Regi

onal

Air

Carr

iers

.

Page 7: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

89

TABL

E 6

U.S

. CO

MM

ERCI

AL A

IR C

ARRI

ERS1

SCHE

DULE

D PA

SSEN

GER

CAPA

CITY

, TRA

FFIC

, AN

D LO

AD F

ACTO

RS

DOM

ESTI

CIN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

SYST

EM

FISC

AL Y

EAR

ASM

s (B

IL)

RPM

s (B

IL)

% L

OAD

FA

CTO

RAS

Ms

(BIL

)RP

Ms

(BIL

)%

LO

AD

FACT

OR

ASM

s (B

IL)

RPM

s (B

IL)

% L

OAD

FA

CTO

RHi

stor

ical

2010

679

555

81.7

281

231

82.1

961

786

81.8

2015

744

629

84.5

323

261

80.7

1,06

789

083

.420

1678

366

384

.732

926

580

.61,

112

928

83.5

2017

809

684

84.5

335

271

81.0

1,14

495

583

.520

1885

072

084

.734

528

181

.51,

195

1,00

183

.820

19E

884

752

85.1

352

292

82.9

1,23

61,

044

84.5

Fore

cast

2020

932

795

85.3

366

304

82.9

1,29

91,

099

84.6

2025

1,03

388

986

.141

834

782

.91,

451

1,23

585

.120

301,

156

999

86.5

489

406

82.9

1,64

51,

405

85.4

2035

1,29

11,

119

86.7

569

472

82.9

1,86

01,

591

85.5

2040

1,43

21,

244

86.8

657

545

83.0

2,08

91,

789

85.6

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

93.

0%3.

4%2.

5%2.

6%2.

8%3.

2%20

19-2

05.

5%5.

8%4.

1%4.

1%5.

1%5.

3%20

20-3

02.

2%2.

3%2.

9%2.

9%2.

4%2.

5%20

20-4

02.

2%2.

3%3.

0%3.

0%2.

4%2.

5%So

urce

: For

ms

41 a

nd 2

98-C

, U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtat

ion.

1 Sum

of U

.S. M

ainl

ine

and

Regi

onal

Air

Carr

iers

.

Page 8: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

90

TABL

E 7

U.S

. CO

MM

ERCI

AL A

IR C

ARRI

ERS1

TOTA

L SCH

EDU

LED

U.S

. IN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

PAS

SEN

GER

TRAF

FIC

REVE

NU

E PA

SSEN

GER

EN

PLAN

EMEN

TSRE

VEN

UE

PASS

ENG

ER M

ILES

ATLA

NTI

CLA

TIN

AM

ERIC

APA

CIFI

CTO

TAL

INTE

RNAT

ION

ALAT

LAN

TIC

LATI

N

AMER

ICA

PACI

FIC

TOTA

L IN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

FISC

AL Y

EAR

(Mil)

(Mil)

(Mil)

(Mil)

(Bil)

(Bil)

(Bil)

(Bil)

Hist

oric

al20

1025

4013

7710

963

5923

120

1525

5214

9010

783

7126

120

1624

5514

9310

587

7326

520

1725

5814

9710

690

7527

120

1826

6013

100

112

9475

281

2019

E28

6213

103

121

9675

292

Fore

cast

2020

3063

1410

613

097

7730

420

2533

7115

119

148

112

8734

720

3037

8717

141

169

139

9840

620

3542

107

1916

718

917

211

047

220

4046

130

2119

721

121

112

354

5

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

91.

4%5.

1%0.

3%3.

3%1.

2%4.

7%2.

7%2.

6%20

19-2

06.

9%0.

7%2.

2%2.

6%7.

4%1.

2%2.

4%4.

1%20

20-3

02.

3%3.

3%2.

3%2.

9%2.

7%3.

7%2.

5%2.

9%20

20-4

02.

2%3.

7%2.

2%3.

1%2.

5%4.

0%2.

3%3.

0%So

urce

: For

ms

41 a

nd 2

98-C

, U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtat

ion.

1 Sum

of U

.S. M

ainl

ine

and

Regi

onal

Air

Carr

iers

.

Page 9: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

91

TABL

E 8

U.S

. AN

D FO

REIG

N F

LAG

CARR

IERS

TOTA

L PAS

SEN

GER

TRAF

FIC

TO/F

ROM

THE

UN

ITED

STA

TES

TOTA

L PA

SSEN

GER

S BY

WO

RLD

TRAV

EL A

REA

(Mill

ions

)

CALE

NDA

R YE

ARAT

LAN

TIC

LATI

N A

MER

ICA

PACI

FIC

U.S

./CA

NAD

A TR

ANSB

ORD

ERTO

TAL

Hist

oric

al20

1056

5327

2215

820

1570

7536

2720

720

1675

7939

2822

020

1779

8241

2923

220

1885

8642

3124

420

19E

8888

4432

252

Fore

cast

2020

9191

4532

259

2025

104

102

5537

298

2030

123

124

6644

357

2035

143

150

7851

422

2040

164

182

9060

496

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

95.

2%5.

8%5.

5%4.

2%5.

3%20

19-2

03.

1%2.

9%3.

1%2.

5%2.

9%20

20-3

03.

1%3.

2%3.

9%3.

1%3.

3%20

20-4

03.

0%3.

5%3.

5%3.

2%3.

3%So

urce

: U

S Cu

stom

s &

Bor

der P

rote

ctio

n da

ta p

roce

ssed

and

rele

ased

by

Depa

rtm

ent o

f Com

mer

ce;

dat

a al

so re

ceiv

ed fr

om T

rans

port

Can

ada.

Page 10: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

92

TABL

E 9

U.S

. CO

MM

ERCI

AL A

IR C

ARRI

ERS'

FO

RECA

ST A

SSU

MPT

ION

S1

SEAT

S PE

R AI

RCRA

FT M

ILE

AND

PASS

ENGE

R TR

IP LE

NGT

H

AVER

AGE

SEAT

S PE

R AI

RCRA

FT M

ILE

AVER

AGE

PASS

ENG

ER T

RIP

LEN

GTH

FISC

AL Y

EAR

DOM

ESTI

C (S

eats

/Mile

)IN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

(S

eats

/Mile

)SY

STEM

(S

eats

/Mile

)DO

MES

TIC

(Mile

s)IN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

(M

iles)

SYST

EM

(Mile

s)Hi

stor

ical

2010

121.

821

6.4

139.

787

4.8

2,98

8.0

1,10

4.2

2015

131.

521

4.8

149.

090

2.7

2,89

2.6

1,13

1.0

2016

134.

821

4.8

151.

591

3.2

2,83

3.8

1,13

2.2

2017

137.

821

7.2

154.

391

8.9

2,79

8.6

1,13

5.6

2018

139.

921

9.1

156.

292

1.9

2,82

0.1

1,13

6.7

2019

E14

1.2

221.

615

7.5

924.

92,

821.

41,

138.

9

Fore

cast

2020

141.

922

2.8

158.

192

7.4

2,86

1.2

1,14

0.4

2025

145.

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Page 11: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

93

TABL

E 10

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CARR

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al20

1047

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548

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543

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1657

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665

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262

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595

9368

961

226

988

120

1862

796

723

645

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924

2019

E65

410

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429

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2020

690

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712

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687

679

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2030

844

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Page 12: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

94

TABL

E 11

U.S

. MAI

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AIR

CARR

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FA

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2010

581

480

82.7

279

230

82.2

860

710

82.5

2015

653

556

85.1

321

259

80.8

973

815

83.7

2016

692

590

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325

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1,01

785

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1771

861

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1,09

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349

290

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1,13

496

384

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cast

2020

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1,19

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2025

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415

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Page 13: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

95

TABL

E 12

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Page 14: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

96

TABL

E 13

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Page 15: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

97

TABL

E 14

U.S

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AIR

CARR

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152.

023

1.7

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728

7.2

220.

916

9.2

2015

157.

723

7.0

173.

927

2.1

219.

517

3.8

2016

159.

924

1.7

174.

126

6.6

219.

817

5.1

2017

162.

324

3.4

176.

426

7.5

221.

817

7.3

2018

164.

224

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178.

126

5.2

223.

217

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2019

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251.

617

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269.

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cast

2020

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627

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181.

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Page 16: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

98

TABL

E 15

U.S

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1,01

54,

433

1,66

04,

587

3,07

71,

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2015

1,02

34,

336

1,66

95,

080

2,96

91,

292

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1,02

74,

291

1,65

05,

176

2,91

71,

283

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1,02

84,

278

1,60

25,

373

2,87

51,

279

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1,02

94,

299

1,61

05,

638

2,89

51,

277

2019

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030

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01,

582

5,70

92,

890

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cast

2020

1,03

34,

352

1,59

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721

2,93

31,

280

2025

1,04

64,

440

1,62

25,

776

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301

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502

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816

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81,

322

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538

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842

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Page 17: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

99

TABL

E 16

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Page 18: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

100

TABL

E 17

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Page 19: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

101

TABL

E 18

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9.49

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8120

1520

7.29

222.

7221

1.77

227.

5320

8.96

224.

5120

1614

6.17

155.

6114

7.01

156.

5114

6.47

155.

9320

1716

2.31

169.

3116

0.79

167.

7216

1.76

168.

7320

1820

6.63

210.

4720

8.42

212.

2920

7.29

211.

1420

19E

205.

6620

5.66

207.

8120

7.81

206.

6220

6.62

Fore

cast

2020

189.

2218

5.41

191.

2018

7.34

190.

1018

6.27

2025

212.

9318

6.42

215.

1618

8.36

213.

9318

7.29

2030

280.

3621

9.16

283.

2922

1.45

281.

6722

0.18

2035

316.

8222

2.80

320.

1322

5.12

318.

3022

3.83

2040

352.

4622

2.60

356.

1322

4.92

354.

1022

3.63

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

9-0

.7%

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.6%

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%-0

.7%

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19-2

0-8

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20-3

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atio

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Page 20: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

102

TABL

E 19

U.S

. CO

MM

ERCI

AL A

IR C

ARRI

ERS

AIR

CARG

O R

EVEN

UE

TON

MIL

ES1,

2, 3

ALL-

CARG

O C

ARRI

ER R

TMS

(M

illio

ns)

PASS

ENG

ER C

ARRI

ER R

TMS

(Mill

ions

)TO

TAL

RTM

S

(Mill

ions

)FI

SCAL

YEA

RDO

MES

TIC

INT'

L.TO

TAL

DOM

ESTI

CIN

T'L.

TOTA

LDO

MES

TIC

INT'

L.TO

TAL

Hist

oric

al20

1011

,306

15,9

7127

,276

1,49

56,

246

7,74

212

,801

22,2

1735

,018

2015

11,6

3616

,359

27,9

951,

455

6,27

77,

733

13,0

9122

,636

35,7

2720

1611

,998

16,2

3628

,234

1,37

36,

136

7,50

913

,372

22,3

7235

,744

2017

13,0

6217

,587

30,6

491,

579

6,95

88,

537

14,6

4124

,545

39,1

8620

1814

,182

19,4

6533

,647

1,58

07,

532

9,11

215

,761

26,9

9742

,759

2019

E14

,737

19,6

6834

,405

1,46

86,

986

8,45

316

,205

26,6

5442

,858

Fore

cast

2020

15,0

2020

,953

35,9

731,

485

7,34

68,

831

16,5

0528

,300

44,8

0420

2516

,133

26,9

0843

,041

1,53

78,

831

10,3

6817

,670

35,7

3953

,409

2030

18,3

0135

,050

53,3

501,

677

10,7

4312

,420

19,9

7845

,792

65,7

7120

3520

,113

42,8

8162

,994

1,77

212

,243

14,0

1521

,885

55,1

2377

,008

2040

22,0

1851

,143

73,1

611,

862

13,5

6215

,424

23,8

8064

,705

88,5

85

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

93.

0%2.

3%2.

6%-0

.2%

1.3%

1.0%

2.7%

2.0%

2.3%

2019

-20

1.9%

6.5%

4.6%

1.2%

5.2%

4.5%

1.9%

6.2%

4.5%

2020

-30

2.0%

5.3%

4.0%

1.2%

3.9%

3.5%

1.9%

4.9%

3.9%

2020

-40

1.9%

4.6%

3.6%

1.1%

3.1%

2.8%

1.9%

4.2%

3.5%

Sour

ce: F

orm

41,

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtat

ion

1 Incl

udes

frei

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expr

ess a

nd m

ail r

even

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n m

iles o

n m

ainl

ine

air c

arrie

rs a

nd re

gion

als/

com

mut

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2 Dom

estic

figu

res f

rom

200

0 th

roug

h 20

02 e

xclu

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irbor

ne E

xpre

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nc.;

inte

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iona

l fig

ures

for 2

003

and

beyo

nd in

clud

e ne

w

repo

rtin

g of

con

trac

t ser

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by

U.S

. car

riers

for f

orei

gn fl

ag c

arrie

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3 Dom

estic

figu

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200

3 an

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yond

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Exp

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. Inc

.

Page 21: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

103

TABL

E 20

U.S

. CO

MM

ERCI

AL A

IR C

ARRI

ERS

IN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

AIR

CAR

GO R

EVEN

UE

TON

MIL

ES B

Y RE

GIO

N1,

2

ATLA

NTI

CLA

TIN

AM

ERIC

APA

CIFI

CO

THER

IN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

TOTA

LFI

SCAL

YEA

R(M

ILLI

ON

S)(M

ILLI

ON

S)(M

ILLI

ON

S)(M

ILLI

ON

S)(M

ILLI

ON

S)Hi

stor

ical

2010

6,78

61,

990

7,89

75,

545

22,2

1720

156,

627

1,63

99,

018

5,35

222

,636

2016

6,63

91,

565

8,85

15,

316

22,3

7220

177,

061

1,68

99,

939

5,85

724

,545

2018

7,55

41,

846

10,4

227,

176

26,9

9720

19E

7,42

61,

663

10,4

297,

135

26,6

54

Fore

cast

2020

7,89

41,

640

11,1

247,

642

28,3

0020

259,

318

1,64

414

,403

10,3

7435

,739

2030

11,0

521,

867

18,7

5414

,119

45,7

9220

3512

,833

2,03

122

,947

17,3

1255

,123

2040

14,5

912,

143

27,6

1920

,352

64,7

05

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

91.

0%-2

.0%

3.1%

2.8%

2.0%

2019

-20

6.3%

-1.4

%6.

7%7.

1%6.

2%20

20-3

03.

4%1.

3%5.

4%6.

3%4.

9%20

20-4

03.

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3%4.

7%5.

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2%So

urce

: For

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1, U

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epar

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atio

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eigh

t/ex

pres

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mai

l rev

enue

ton

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s on

mai

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e ai

r car

riers

and

regi

onal

s/co

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uter

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gure

s for

200

3 an

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yond

incl

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new

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con

trac

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by

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. car

riers

for f

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gn fl

ag c

arrie

rs.

Page 22: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

104

TABL

E 21

U.S

. MAI

NLI

NE

AIR

CARR

IERS

PASS

ENGE

R JE

T AI

RCRA

FT

LARG

E N

ARRO

WBO

DYLA

RGE

WID

EBO

DY

CALE

NDA

R YE

AR2

ENG

INE

3 EN

GIN

E4

ENG

INE

TOTA

L2

ENG

INE

3 EN

GIN

E4

ENG

INE

TOTA

LLA

RGE

JETS

REG

ION

AL

JETS

TOTA

L JE

TSHi

stor

ical

2010

3,12

08

13,

129

470

943

522

3,65

171

3,72

220

153,

319

20

3,32

149

20

3152

33,

844

993,

943

2016

3,45

72

03,

459

490

027

517

3,97

697

4,07

320

173,

539

10

3,54

051

70

051

74,

057

984,

155

2018

3,67

80

03,

678

541

00

541

4,21

998

4,31

720

19E

3,77

50

03,

775

553

00

553

4,32

860

4,38

8

Fore

cast

2020

3,70

60

03,

706

516

00

516

4,22

260

4,28

220

253,

723

00

3,72

352

70

052

74,

250

604,

310

2030

3,79

90

03,

799

607

00

607

4,40

652

4,45

820

354,

126

00

4,12

670

20

070

24,

828

164,

844

2040

4,50

50

04,

505

805

00

805

5,31

00

5,31

0

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

92.

1%-1

00.0

%N

/A2.

1%1.

8%N

/A-1

00.0

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6%1.

9%-1

.9%

1.8%

2019

-20

-1.8

%N

/AN

/A-1

.8%

-6.7

%N

/AN

/A-6

.7%

-2.4

%0.

0%-2

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2020

-30

0.2%

N/A

N/A

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1.6%

N/A

N/A

1.6%

0.4%

-1.4

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4%20

20-4

01.

0%N

/AN

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0%2.

2%N

/AN

/A2.

2%1.

2%-9

9.9%

1.1%

Page 23: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

105

TABL

E 22

U.S

. MAI

NLI

NE

AIR

CARR

IERS

CAR

GO JE

T AI

RCRA

FT

LARG

E N

ARRO

WBO

DYLA

RGE

WID

EBO

DY

CALE

NDA

R YE

AR2

ENG

INE

3 EN

GIN

E4

ENG

INE

TOTA

L2

ENG

INE

3 EN

GIN

E4

ENG

INE

TOTA

LTO

TAL

Hist

oric

al20

1015

310

431

288

265

200

9756

285

020

1522

822

225

230

915

672

537

789

2016

235

192

256

328

149

7755

481

020

1724

316

226

136

014

985

594

855

2018

213

112

226

392

120

100

612

838

2019

E21

610

222

841

912

011

265

187

9

Fore

cast

2020

224

112

237

440

118

111

669

906

2025

258

62

266

547

113

123

783

1,04

920

3034

60

034

672

911

212

296

31,

309

2035

398

00

398

920

103

114

1,13

71,

535

2040

457

00

457

1,22

317

941,

334

1,79

1

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

93.

9%-2

2.9%

N/A

-2.6

%5.

2%-5

.5%

1.6%

1.6%

0.4%

2019

-20

3.7%

10.0

%N

/A3.

9%5.

0%-1

.7%

-0.9

%2.

8%3.

1%20

20-3

04.

4%N

/AN

/A3.

9%5.

2%-0

.5%

0.9%

3.7%

3.7%

2020

-40

3.6%

N/A

N/A

3.3%

5.2%

-9.2

%-0

.8%

3.5%

3.5%

Page 24: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

106

TABL

E 23

TOTA

L JET

FU

EL A

ND

AVIA

TIO

N G

ASO

LIN

E FU

EL C

ON

SUM

PTIO

N

U.S

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IL A

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ION

AIR

CRAF

T(M

illio

ns o

f Gal

lons

)

JET

FUEL

AVIA

TIO

N G

ASO

LIN

EU

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IR C

ARRI

ERS1,

2

FISC

AL Y

EAR

DOM

ESTI

CIN

T'L.

TOTA

LG

ENER

AL

AVIA

TIO

NTO

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AIR

CARR

IER

GEN

ERAL

AV

IATI

ON

TOTA

LTO

TAL

FUEL

CO

NSU

MED

Hist

oric

al20

1012

,036

6,31

518

,351

1,43

519

,786

222

122

320

,009

2015

12,8

346,

541

19,3

741,

383

20,7

572

196

198

20,9

5520

1613

,441

6,46

719

,699

1,43

721

,136

220

620

821

,345

2017

13,8

686,

668

20,5

351,

541

22,0

762

206

208

22,2

8520

1814

,553

7,12

121

,674

1,82

023

,494

223

223

423

,728

2019

E14

,598

7,04

321

,641

1,87

923

,521

223

123

323

,754

Fore

cast

2020

15,2

477,

260

22,5

071,

934

24,4

412

230

232

24,6

7320

2516

,069

7,88

423

,953

2,15

226

,105

221

822

026

,325

2030

17,1

178,

777

25,8

942,

354

28,2

482

211

213

28,4

6020

3518

,186

9,71

127

,896

2,51

930

,416

220

620

830

,623

2040

19,1

9510

,667

29,8

622,

689

32,5

512

205

207

32,7

58

Avg

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al G

row

th20

10-1

92.

2%1.

2%1.

8%3.

0%1.

9%0.

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9%20

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04.

4%3.

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r car

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et fu

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orm

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all

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AA A

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oth

pass

enge

r (m

ainl

ine

and

regi

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air

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ier)

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o ca

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rs.

2 Fore

cast

ass

umes

1.0

% a

nnua

l im

prov

emen

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avai

labl

e se

at m

iles p

er g

allo

n fo

r U.S

. Com

mer

cial

Air

Carr

ier

Page 25: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

107

TABL

E 24

U.S

. REG

ION

AL C

ARRI

ER F

ORE

CAST

ASS

UM

PTIO

NS

AVER

AGE

SEAT

S PE

R AI

RCRA

FT M

ILE

AVER

AGE

PASS

ENG

ER T

RIP

LEN

GTH

REVE

NU

E PE

R PA

SSEN

GER

MIL

E**

FISC

AL Y

EAR

DOM

ESTI

C (S

eats

/Mile

)IN

T'L

(Sea

ts/M

ile)

TOTA

L (S

eats

/Mile

)DO

MES

TIC

(Mile

s)IN

T'L.

(M

iles)

TOTA

L (M

iles)

CURR

ENT

$

(Cen

ts)

2018

$

(Cen

ts)

Hist

oric

al20

1056

.153

.256

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450

346

515

.74

18.4

120

1559

.962

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569

548

010

.93

11.7

420

1661

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.961

.848

172

348

711

.31

12.0

420

1763

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.863

.248

271

848

711

.30

11.7

920

1863

.870

.864

.048

768

049

111

.32

11.5

320

19E

64.3

70.8

64.4

492

685

496

11.5

011

.50

Fore

cast

2020

64.9

71.1

65.0

494

688

498

11.5

311

.29

2025

67.5

72.6

67.6

504

703

508

12.6

111

.04

2030

70.0

74.1

70.1

515

717

519

13.9

010

.87

2035

72.6

75.6

72.7

525

731

529

15.0

210

.57

2040

75.4

77.1

75.4

535

746

539

16.2

410

.26

Av

g An

nual

Gro

wth

2010

-19

1.5%

3.2%

1.6%

0.7%

3.5%

0.7%

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%-5

.1%

2019

-20

1.0%

0.4%

0.9%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.2%

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20-3

00.

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2020

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0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

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urce

: Fo

rm 4

1 an

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epar

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t of T

rans

port

atio

n.

** R

epor

ting

carr

iers

.

Page 26: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

108

TABL

E 25

U.S

. REG

ION

AL C

ARRI

ERS

SCHE

DULE

D PA

SSEN

GER

TRAF

FIC

(In M

illio

ns)

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VEN

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ER M

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CIN

TERN

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NAL

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Hist

oric

al20

1016

23

164

75,0

301,

347

76,3

7720

1515

33

156

72,7

542,

116

74,8

7020

1615

24

155

72,9

642,

564

75,5

2720

1714

93

152

71,7

152,

468

74,1

8320

1815

43

157

74,8

862,

295

77,1

8120

19E

159

316

378

,499

2,21

180

,709

Fore

cast

2020

168

317

283

,110

2,34

185

,450

2025

185

418

993

,361

2,62

995

,990

2030

205

420

910

5,56

42,

973

108,

537

2035

227

523

111

8,97

13,

351

122,

321

2040

249

525

413

3,04

63,

747

136,

793

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

9-0

.2%

2.1%

-0.1

%0.

5%5.

7%0.

6%20

19-2

05.

4%5.

4%5.

4%5.

9%5.

9%5.

9%20

20-3

02.

0%2.

0%2.

0%2.

4%2.

4%2.

4%20

20-4

02.

0%2.

0%2.

0%2.

4%2.

4%2.

4%So

urce

: Fo

rm 4

1 an

d 29

8C, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

port

atio

n.

Page 27: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

109

TABL

E 26

U.S

. REG

ION

AL C

ARRI

ERS

SCHE

DULE

D PA

SSEN

GER

CAPA

CITY

, TRA

FFIC

, AN

D LO

AD F

ACTO

RS

DOM

ESTI

CIN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

TOTA

L

YEAR

ASM

s

(M

IL)

RPM

s

(M

IL)

% L

OAD

FA

CTO

RAS

Ms

(MIL

)RP

Ms

(MIL

)%

LO

AD

FACT

OR

ASM

s

(M

IL)

RPM

s

(M

IL)

% L

OAD

FA

CTO

RHi

stor

ical

2010

98,4

6175

,030

76.2

1,85

71,

347

72.5

100,

318

76,3

7776

.120

1590

,681

72,7

5480

.22,

819

2,11

675

.093

,500

74,8

7080

.120

1691

,158

72,9

6480

.03,

519

2,56

472

.894

,677

75,5

2779

.820

1790

,938

71,7

1578

.93,

380

2,46

873

.094

,317

74,1

8378

.720

1893

,924

74,8

8679

.73,

023

2,29

575

.996

,947

77,1

8179

.620

19E

98,2

5978

,499

79.9

2,93

32,

211

75.4

101,

192

80,7

0979

.8

Fore

cast

2020

103,

793

83,1

1080

.13,

098

2,34

175

.510

6,89

185

,450

79.9

2025

115,

736

93,3

6180

.73,

455

2,62

976

.111

9,19

195

,990

80.5

2030

130,

373

105,

564

81.0

3,89

22,

973

76.4

134,

265

108,

537

80.8

2035

146,

604

118,

971

81.2

4,37

63,

351

76.6

150,

980

122,

321

81.0

2040

163,

703

133,

046

81.3

4,88

73,

747

76.7

168,

590

136,

793

81.1

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

90.

0%0.

5%5.

2%5.

7%0.

4%0.

1%0.

6%20

19-2

05.

6%5.

9%5.

6%5.

9%0.

2%5.

6%5.

9%20

20-3

02.

3%2.

4%2.

3%2.

4%0.

1%2.

3%2.

4%20

20-4

02.

3%2.

4%2.

3%2.

4%0.

1%2.

3%2.

4%So

urce

: For

m 4

1 an

d 29

8C, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

port

atio

n.

Page 28: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

110

TABL

E 27

U.S

. REG

ION

AL C

ARRI

ERS

PASS

ENGE

R AI

RCRA

FT

REG

ION

AL A

IRCR

AFT

31 T

O 4

0 SE

ATS

OVE

R 40

SEA

TSTO

TAL

FLEE

TAS

OF

JA

NU

ARY

1LE

SS T

HAN

9 SE

ATS

10 T

O 1

9

SEAT

S20

TO

30

SE

ATS

PRO

PJE

TTO

TAL

PRO

PJE

TTO

TAL

NO

N JE

TJE

TTO

TAL

Hist

oric

al20

1044

092

8214

428

172

991,

728

1,82

785

71,

756

2,61

320

1534

668

1332

032

571,

628

1,68

551

61,

628

2,14

420

1639

055

1359

059

401,

637

1,67

755

71,

637

2,19

420

1736

765

1926

026

651,

644

1,70

954

21,

644

2,18

620

1836

077

2011

314

541,

795

1,84

952

21,

798

2,32

020

19E

374

7219

110

1139

1,84

61,

885

515

1,84

62,

361

Fore

cast

2020

347

6718

100

1044

1,87

61,

920

486

1,87

62,

362

2025

269

5214

80

859

1,91

51,

974

402

1,91

52,

317

2030

194

3710

60

667

1,84

81,

915

314

1,84

82,

162

2035

116

226

30

374

2,00

12,

075

221

2,00

12,

222

2040

346

21

01

852,

192

2,27

712

82,

192

2,32

0

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

9-1

.8%

-2.7

%-1

5.0%

-24.

9%N

/A-2

6.3%

-9.8

%0.

7%0.

3%-5

.5%

0.6%

-1.1

%20

19-2

0-7

.3%

-6.9

%N

/A-9

.1%

N/A

-9.1

%12

.8%

1.6%

1.9%

-5.7

%1.

6%0.

0%20

20-3

0-5

.7%

-5.8

%N

/A-5

.0%

N/A

-5.0

%4.

3%-0

.2%

0.0%

-4.3

%-0

.2%

-0.9

%20

20-4

0-1

1.0%

-11.

4%N

/A-1

0.9%

N/A

-10.

9%3.

3%0.

8%0.

9%-6

.5%

0.8%

-0.1

%

Page 29: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

111

TABL

E 28

ACTI

VE G

ENER

AL A

VIAT

ION

AND

AIR

TAX

I AIR

CRAF

T

FIXE

D W

ING

TOTA

LPI

STON

TURB

INE

ROTO

RCRA

FTGE

NERA

L

AS O

F DE

C. 3

1SI

NGLE

EN

GINE

MUL

TI-

ENGI

NETO

TAL

TURB

O PR

OPTU

RBO

JET

TOTA

LPI

STON

TURB

INE

TOTA

LEX

PERI

- M

ENTA

L**

LIGHT

SPO

RT

AIRC

RAFT

**OT

HER

AVIA

TION

FL

EET

TOTA

L PI

STON

STO

TAL

TURB

INES

Hist

orica

l*20

1013

9,51

915

,900

155,

419

9,36

911

,484

20,8

533,

588

6,51

410

,102

24,7

846,

528

5,68

422

3,37

015

9,00

727

,367

2015

127,

887

13,2

5414

1,14

19,

712

13,4

4023

,152

3,28

67,

220

10,5

0627

,922

2,36

94,

941

210,

031

144,

427

30,3

7220

1612

9,65

212

,986

142,

638

9,77

913

,751

23,5

303,

344

7,23

310

,577

27,5

852,

478

4,98

621

1,79

414

5,98

230

,763

2017

129,

833

13,0

8314

2,91

69,

949

14,2

1724

,166

3,27

07,

241

10,5

1126

,921

2,55

14,

692

211,

757

146,

186

31,4

0720

1813

0,17

912

,861

143,

040

9,92

514

,596

24,5

213,

082

6,90

79,

989

27,5

312,

554

4,11

421

1,74

914

6,12

231

,428

2019

E12

9,53

512

,800

142,

335

9,96

515

,035

25,0

003,

130

7,03

510

,165

27,7

252,

700

4,41

021

2,33

514

5,46

532

,035

Fore

cast

2020

128,

495

12,7

5014

1,24

59,

995

15,4

9525

,490

3,17

57,

165

10,3

4027

,970

2,84

54,

490

212,

380

144,

420

32,6

5520

2512

2,24

512

,485

134,

730

10,2

3017

,760

27,9

903,

405

7,82

011

,225

29,3

653,

545

4,54

521

1,40

013

8,13

535

,810

2030

115,

710

12,1

9512

7,90

510

,795

19,9

7030

,765

3,66

58,

540

12,2

0530

,805

4,18

54,

575

210,

440

131,

570

39,3

0520

3510

9,60

011

,900

121,

500

11,5

3022

,035

33,5

653,

940

9,30

513

,245

32,2

454,

810

4,59

520

9,96

012

5,44

042

,870

2040

104,

335

11,6

3511

5,97

012

,595

24,0

0036

,595

4,21

510

,080

14,2

9533

,475

5,43

04,

615

210,

380

120,

185

46,6

75

Avg A

nnua

l Gro

wth

2010

-19

-0.8

%-2

.4%

-1.0

%0.

7%3.

0%2.

0%-1

.5%

0.9%

0.1%

1.3%

-9.3

%-2

.8%

-0.6

%-1

.0%

1.8%

2019

-20

-0.8

%-0

.4%

-0.8

%0.

3%3.

1%2.

0%1.

4%1.

8%1.

7%0.

9%5.

4%1.

8%0.

0%-0

.7%

1.9%

2020

-30

-1.0

%-0

.4%

-1.0

%0.

8%2.

6%1.

9%1.

4%1.

8%1.

7%1.

0%3.

9%0.

2%-0

.1%

-0.9

%1.

9%20

20-4

0-1

.0%

-0.5

%-1

.0%

1.2%

2.2%

1.8%

1.4%

1.7%

1.6%

0.9%

3.3%

0.1%

0.0%

-0.9

%1.

8%*

Sour

ce:

2001

-201

0, 2

012-

2018

, FAA

Gen

eral

Avi

atio

n an

d Ai

r Tax

i Act

ivity

(and

Avi

onics

) Sur

veys

.**

Expe

rimen

tal L

ight-s

port

cate

gory

that

was

pre

vious

ly sh

own

unde

r Spo

rt Ai

rcra

ft is

mov

ed u

nder

Exp

erim

enta

l Airc

raft

cate

gory

, sta

rting

in 2

012.

No

te: A

n ac

tive

airc

raft

is on

e th

at h

as a

curre

nt re

gistra

tion

and

was

flow

n at

leas

t one

hou

r dur

ing t

he ca

lend

ar ye

ar.

Page 30: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

112

TABL

E 29

ACTI

VE G

ENER

AL A

VIAT

ION

AN

D A

IR T

AXI H

OU

RS F

LOW

N(In

Tho

usan

ds)

FIXE

D W

ING

TOTA

LPI

STON

TURB

INE

ROTO

RCRA

FTGE

NERA

L

AS O

F DE

C. 3

1SI

NGLE

EN

GINE

MUL

TI-

ENGI

NETO

TAL

TURB

O PR

OPTU

RBO

JET

TOTA

LPI

STON

TURB

INE

TOTA

LEX

PERI

- M

ENTA

L**

LIGHT

SPO

RT

AIRC

RAFT

**OT

HER

AVIA

TION

FL

EET

TOTA

L PI

STON

STO

TAL

TURB

INES

Hist

oric

al*

2010

12,1

611,

818

13,9

792,

325

3,37

55,

700

794

2,61

13,

405

1,22

631

118

124

,802

14,7

738,

311

2015

11,2

171,

608

12,8

252,

538

3,83

76,

375

798

2,49

63,

294

1,29

519

116

224

,142

13,6

238,

871

2016

11,8

651,

683

13,5

482,

708

3,84

76,

554

780

2,34

83,

128

1,22

418

719

324

,834

14,3

288,

902

2017

12,0

471,

536

13,5

832,

625

4,06

56,

690

782

2,53

83,

320

1,24

120

916

825

,212

14,3

669,

228

2018

12,0

921,

694

13,7

852,

736

4,59

27,

328

601

2,32

22,

922

1,15

318

713

125

,506

14,3

869,

650

2019

E12

,030

1,67

013

,700

2,77

44,

810

7,58

462

12,

394

3,01

51,

195

209

150

25,8

5314

,321

9,97

8

Fore

cast

2020

11,8

461,

651

13,4

972,

807

5,01

97,

827

641

2,45

73,

098

1,24

222

315

326

,039

14,1

3810

,284

2025

10,8

811,

598

12,4

792,

956

5,94

58,

901

738

2,75

63,

494

1,36

329

215

626

,684

13,2

1811

,657

2030

10,2

091,

567

11,7

763,

129

6,82

49,

953

831

3,05

83,

889

1,48

035

715

727

,612

12,6

0813

,011

2035

9,77

01,

550

11,3

213,

344

7,59

210

,936

923

3,36

24,

285

1,59

842

415

928

,723

12,2

4414

,298

2040

9,62

61,

551

11,1

773,

652

8,33

111

,983

1,01

23,

670

4,68

21,

707

496

160

30,2

0512

,189

15,6

52

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

9-0

.1%

-0.9

%-0

.2%

2.0%

4.0%

3.2%

-2.7

%-1

.0%

-1.3

%-0

.3%

-4.3

%-2

.1%

0.5%

-0.3

%2.

1%20

19-2

0-1

.5%

-1.1

%-1

.5%

1.2%

4.4%

3.2%

3.2%

2.6%

2.7%

3.9%

6.5%

2.1%

0.7%

-1.3

%3.

1%20

20-3

0-1

.5%

-0.5

%-1

.4%

1.1%

3.1%

2.4%

2.6%

2.2%

2.3%

1.8%

4.8%

0.3%

0.6%

-1.1

%2.

4%20

20-4

0-1

.0%

-0.3

%-0

.9%

1.3%

2.6%

2.2%

2.3%

2.0%

2.1%

1.6%

4.1%

0.2%

0.7%

-0.7

%2.

1%*

Sour

ce:

2001

-201

0, 2

012-

2018

, FAA

Gen

eral

Avi

atio

n an

d Ai

r Tax

i Act

ivity

(and

Avi

onics

) Sur

veys

.**

Expe

rimen

tal L

ight

-spo

rt c

ateg

ory

that

was

pre

viou

sly sh

own

unde

r Spo

rt A

ircra

ft is

mov

ed u

nder

Exp

erim

enta

l Airc

raft

cat

egor

y, st

artin

g in

201

2.

Not

e: A

n ac

tive

airc

raft

is o

ne th

at h

as a

cur

rent

regi

stra

tion

and

was

flow

n at

leas

t one

hou

r dur

ing

the

cale

ndar

yea

r.

Page 31: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

113

TABL

E 30

ACTI

VE P

ILO

TS B

Y T

YPE

OF

CERT

IFIC

ATE,

EXC

LUD

ING

STU

DEN

T PI

LOTS

*

AS

OF

DEC

. 31

RECR

EA-

TIO

NA

LSP

ORT

PI

LOT

PRIV

ATE

COM

MER

CIA

LA

IRLI

NE

TRA

NSP

ORT

ROTO

R-

CRA

FT

ON

LYG

LID

ER

ON

LY

TOTA

L LE

SS

STU

DEN

T PI

LOTS

INST

RUM

ENT

RATE

D

PILO

TS1

His

toric

al**

2010

212

3,68

220

2,02

012

3,70

514

2,19

815

,377

21,2

7550

8,46

931

8,00

120

1519

05,

482

170,

718

101,

164

154,

730

15,5

6619

,460

467,

310

304,

329

2016

175

5,88

916

2,31

396

,081

157,

894

15,5

1817

,991

455,

861

302,

572

2017

153

6,09

716

2,45

598

,161

159,

825

15,3

5518

,139

460,

185

306,

652

2018

144

6,24

616

3,69

599

,880

162,

145

15,0

3318

,370

465,

513

311,

017

2019

127

6,46

716

1,10

510

0,86

316

4,94

714

,248

19,1

4346

6,90

031

4,16

8

Fore

cast

2020

125

6,74

016

1,70

010

0,95

016

6,90

014

,100

19,3

5046

9,86

531

6,30

020

2511

08,

110

157,

900

100,

800

171,

100

14,5

0020

,050

472,

570

322,

700

2030

909,

405

150,

700

100,

100

176,

900

15,7

0020

,300

473,

195

329,

200

2035

7010

,615

144,

500

99,3

0018

3,40

017

,000

20,4

5047

5,33

533

5,30

020

4050

11,6

8014

0,60

098

,600

190,

100

18,3

0020

,600

479,

930

341,

200

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

9-5

.5%

6.5%

-2.5

%-2

.2%

1.7%

-0.8

%-1

.2%

-0.9

%-0

.1%

2019

-20

-1.6

%4.

2%0.

4%0.

1%1.

2%-1

.0%

1.1%

0.6%

0.7%

2020

-30

-3.2

%3.

4%-0

.7%

-0.1

%0.

6%1.

1%0.

5%0.

1%0.

4%20

20-4

0-4

.5%

2.8%

-0.7

%-0

.1%

0.7%

1.3%

0.3%

0.1%

0.4%

** S

ourc

e: F

AA U

.S. C

ivil

Airm

en S

tatis

tics.

* Star

ting

with

Apr

il 20

16, t

here

is n

o ex

pira

tion

date

on

the

new

stu

dent

pilo

t cer

tific

ates

. Thi

s ge

nera

tes

a cu

mul

ativ

e in

crea

se in

the

stud

ent p

ilot

num

bers

and

bre

aks

the

link

betw

een

stud

ent p

ilot a

nd p

rivat

e pi

lot o

r hig

her l

evel

cer

tific

ates

. Sin

ce th

ere

is n

o su

ffic

ient

dat

a ye

t to

fore

cast

the

stu

dent

cer

tific

ates

unt

er th

e ne

w ru

le, s

tude

nt p

ilot f

orec

ast i

s su

spen

ded

and

excl

uded

from

this

tabl

e.1 In

stru

men

t rat

ed p

ilots

sho

uld

not b

e ad

ded

to o

ther

cat

egor

ies

in d

eriv

ing

tota

l.N

ote:

An

activ

e pi

lot i

s a

pers

on w

ith a

pilo

t cer

tific

ate

and

a va

lid m

edic

al c

ertif

icat

e.

Page 32: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

114

TABL

E 31

GEN

ERAL

AVI

ATIO

N A

IRCR

AFT

FU

EL C

ON

SUM

PTIO

N(In

Mill

ions

of G

allo

ns)

FIXE

D W

ING

PIST

ON

TURB

INE

ROTO

RCRA

FTTO

TAL

FUEL

CO

NSU

MED

CALE

NDA

R YE

ARSI

NG

LE

ENG

INE

MU

LTI-

ENG

INE

TURB

O

PRO

PTU

RBO

JET

PIST

ON

TURB

INE

EXPE

RI-

MEN

TAL*

* /

OTH

ERLI

GHT

SP

ORT

**AV

GAS

JET

FUEL

TOTA

LHi

stor

ical

*20

1013

354

187

1,12

311

125

221

221

1,43

51,

656

2015

128

4019

11,

063

1012

815

119

61,

383

1,57

820

1613

742

207

1,11

710

113

171

206

1,43

71,

643

2017

138

4119

81,

204

1013

916

120

61,

541

1,74

720

1815

250

234

1,45

59

132

201

232

1,82

02,

052

2019

E15

249

236

1,50

99

135

211

231

1,87

92,

111

Fore

cast

2020

149

4823

91,

558

913

722

123

01,

934

2,16

420

2513

746

248

1,75

511

149

242

218

2,15

22,

370

2030

127

4425

91,

936

1216

026

221

12,

354

2,56

520

3511

944

270

2,07

913

171

272

206

2,51

92,

725

2040

115

4428

72,

225

1417

729

320

52,

689

2,89

4

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

91.

5%-1

.1%

2.6%

3.3%

-2.1

%0.

9%-0

.3%

-2.6

%0.

5%3.

0%2.

7%20

19-2

0-1

.5%

-1.5

%1.

2%3.

3%3.

2%1.

6%4.

2%6.

7%-0

.8%

2.9%

2.5%

2020

-30

-1.6

%-0

.8%

0.8%

2.2%

2.5%

1.5%

1.5%

4.4%

-0.9

%2.

0%1.

7%20

20-4

0-1

.3%

-0.5

%0.

9%1.

8%2.

3%1.

3%1.

4%3.

7%-0

.6%

1.7%

1.5%

*Sou

rce:

FAA

APO

Est

imat

es.

**Ex

perim

enta

l Lig

ht-s

port

cat

egor

y th

at w

as p

revi

ously

show

n un

der S

port

Airc

raft

is m

oved

und

er E

xper

imen

tal A

ircra

ft c

ateg

ory,

star

ting

in 2

012.

N

ote:

Det

ail m

ay n

ot a

dd to

tota

l bec

ause

of i

ndep

ende

nt ro

undi

ng.

Page 33: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

115

TABL

E 3

2

TOTA

L CO

MBI

NED

AIR

CRAF

T O

PERA

TIO

NS

AT A

IRPO

RTS

WIT

H F

AA A

ND

CON

TRAC

T TR

AFFI

C CO

NTR

OL S

ERVI

CE(In

Tho

usan

ds)

GEN

ERAL

AVI

ATIO

NM

ILIT

ARY

NU

MBE

R O

F TO

WER

S

FISC

AL Y

EAR

AIR

CARR

IER

AIR

TAXI

/ CO

MM

UTE

RIT

INER

ANT

LOCA

LTO

TAL

ITIN

ERAN

TLO

CAL

TOTA

LTO

TAL

FAA

CON

TRAC

THi

stor

ical

2010

12,6

589,

410

14,8

6411

,716

26,5

801,

309

1,29

82,

607

51,2

5526

424

420

1513

,755

7,89

513

,887

11,6

9125

,579

1,29

21,

203

2,49

549

,724

264

252

2016

14,4

177,

580

13,9

0511

,633

25,5

381,

317

1,14

52,

462

49,9

9726

425

220

1715

,047

7,18

013

,839

11,7

3225

,571

1,32

61,

200

2,52

650

,325

264

253

2018

15,6

867,

126

14,1

3012

,354

26,4

851,

319

1,15

52,

474

51,7

7026

425

420

19E

16,1

927,

234

14,2

4513

,109

27,3

541,

349

1,13

42,

483

53,2

6426

425

6

Fore

cast

2020

16,8

697,

423

14,4

1213

,600

28,0

131,

350

1,13

62,

486

54,7

9026

425

620

2519

,398

5,55

714

,594

13,8

2428

,418

1,35

01,

136

2,48

655

,858

264

256

2030

21,3

895,

840

14,7

8014

,055

28,8

351,

350

1,13

62,

486

58,5

5026

425

620

3523

,638

6,14

314

,970

14,2

9329

,264

1,35

01,

136

2,48

661

,531

264

256

2040

25,9

956,

462

15,1

6614

,539

29,7

051,

350

1,13

62,

486

64,6

4826

425

6

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

92.

8%-2

.9%

-0.5

%1.

3%0.

3%0.

3%-1

.5%

-0.5

%0.

4%20

19-2

04.

2%2.

6%1.

2%3.

7%2.

4%0.

0%0.

1%0.

1%2.

9%20

20-3

02.

4%-2

.4%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.7%

2020

-40

2.2%

-0.7

%0.

3%0.

3%0.

3%0.

0%0.

0%0.

0%0.

8%So

urce

: FA

A Ai

r Tra

ffic

Activ

ity.

Page 34: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

116

TABL

E 33

TOTA

L TRA

CON

OPE

RATI

ON

S(In

Tho

usan

ds)

FISC

AL Y

EAR

AIR

CARR

IER

AIR

TAXI

/ CO

MM

UTE

RG

ENER

AL

AVIA

TIO

NM

ILIT

ARY

OVE

RFLI

GHT

T

OTA

LHi

stor

ical

2010

12,5

768,

667

10,8

392,

054

4,85

138

,987

2015

13,6

117,

095

10,3

991,

966

4,10

037

,171

2016

14,2

926,

893

10,2

891,

979

4,26

037

,713

2017

14,9

096,

513

10,4

901,

928

4,24

438

,085

2018

15,5

196,

495

10,8

051,

954

4,11

538

,888

2019

E16

,014

6,60

010

,960

1,94

63,

706

39,2

27

Fore

cast

2020

16,6

806,

828

11,0

551,

947

3,82

140

,331

2025

19,1

834,

658

11,1

791,

947

3,86

940

,835

2030

21,1

594,

908

11,3

061,

947

4,11

443

,434

2035

23,3

915,

177

11,4

361,

947

4,38

946

,339

2040

25,7

285,

460

11,5

681,

946

4,67

649

,379

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

92.

7%-3

.0%

0.1%

-0.6

%-2

.9%

0.1%

2019

-20

4.2%

3.4%

0.9%

0.0%

3.1%

2.8%

2020

-30

2.4%

-3.2

%0.

2%0.

0%0.

7%0.

7%20

20-4

02.

2%-1

.1%

0.2%

0.0%

1.0%

1.0%

Sour

ce:

FAA

Air T

raffi

c Ac

tivity

.

Page 35: Appendix C: Forecast Tables...table 5 u.s. commercial air carriers 1 total scheduled u.s. passenger traffic revenue passenger enplanements (millions) revenue passenger miles (billions)

117

TABL

E 34

IFR

AIR

CRAF

T H

ANDL

EDAT

FAA

EN

RO

UTE

TRA

FFIC

CO

NTR

OL C

ENTE

RS(In

Tho

usan

ds)

IFR

AIRC

RAFT

HAN

DLED

FISC

AL Y

EAR

COM

MER

CIAL

GEN

ERAL

AV

IATI

ON

MIL

ITAR

Y

TO

TAL

Hist

oric

al20

1030

,965

6,55

02,

982

40,4

9820

1533

,116

7,00

71,

795

41,9

1820

1634

,104

7,30

11,

826

43,2

3120

1734

,665

7,42

81,

765

43,8

5820

1835

,729

7,40

61,

735

44,8

7020

19E

35,7

816,

309

1,64

543

,734

Fore

cast

2020

37,0

596,

298

1,52

544

,882

2025

38,4

896,

450

1,52

546

,464

2030

42,3

406,

610

1,52

550

,475

2035

46,6

876,

778

1,52

554

,990

2040

51,2

366,

955

1,52

559

,716

Avg

Annu

al G

row

th20

10-1

91.

6%-0

.4%

-6.4

%0.

9%20

19-2

03.

6%-0

.2%

-7.3

%2.

6%20

20-3

01.

3%0.

5%0.

0%1.

2%20

20-4

01.

6%0.

5%0.

0%1.

4%So

urce

: FA

A Ai

r Tra

ffic

Activ

ity