Apex2 s.2 India Mdgs

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CHASING THE MDGs THE INDIAN SCENARIO

1. Introduction1.1 The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) set up by the United

Nations were adopted by 189 countries in the UN Millennium Summit held inSeptember, 2000. Broadly, the objectives of the goals are to adopt newmeasures in the fight against poverty, hunger, illiteracy, gender inequality,diseases and environmental degradation. The challenges for the country inachieving the goals have been translated into time bound targets. The goalsand the targets are global as well as country specific. There are in all 8MDGs as under:-

(i) Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger(ii) Achieve universal primary education(iii) Promote gender inequality and empower women

(iv) To reduce child mortality(v) Improve maternal health(vi) Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases(vii) Ensure environmental sustainability(viii) Develop a global partnership for development

1.2 Each of the goals has one or more targets to be achieved by the end of2015. There are in all 18 such targets. In the run up, to meet the targets, theprogress of the countries are to be measured quantitatively with the help of anumber of quantitative indicators. There are 48 such indicators listed by theUN and standard International definitions for these indicators have also beenenunciated.

1.3 There is no compulsion for any country to work towards meeting theMDG targets. However, the MDGs have become a framework for judging theprogress of different nations. Failure to achieve MDG targets will reflectpoorly on a nations capability and will also bring in international pressure.India has a very crucial position in the global scenario of MDG framework.For instance, the first target of the first MDG i.e. halving the global poverty by2015, cannot be achieved unless the worlds most populous countries, Indiaand China, halve the number of people living below the poverty line by that

year.

2. Country Situation2.1 Indias steady progress over the last one decade towards humandevelopment goals is reflected in the improvement of the countrys HDI from0.41 in 1975 to 0.57 in 1999. India also figured itself among the 10 fastestgrowing economies in the world with an average growth rate of the GDP of5.8% during the first decade of reforms (1992-2001). This favourable situationled India to take certain important policy initiatives as under:-

(a) India committed itself in fulfilling the mandates of variousinternational conventions/conferences;


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(b) A national policy plan and the action plan for the empowermentof the women are adopted;

(c) The 73rd and 74th Constitutional Amendments passed in 1992became operative in strengthening political participation ofwomen and brought more than a million women into public life;

(d) The 83rd

Constitutional Amendment Bill recognising the right toPrimary Education as a Fundamental Right got passed;

(e) The legislation on reservation of seats for women in Parliamentis in the process;

(f) The National Employment Guarantee Act has been passed;(g) The Right to Information Act has come into effect; and(h) The directions for the new country programme emerged from

rigorous assessment of the outcomes of on-going programmesand consultation with diverse actors and stakeholders.

2.2 The Government of India has launched various new countrywide

programmes for extending the benefits of the aforesaid policy initiatives anddemonstrated its commitment by significant enhancement of allocations forthese programmes in the recent budgets. The Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan(Education for all), the National Rural Health Mission, the Expanded MiddayMeal Scheme and the Integrated Child Development Mission, SampoornaGrameen Rozgar Yojana are the main programmes devoted to achievementof the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

2.3 As a consequence of the favourable policy and institutionalenvironment in the country, India became well placed on track with regard toachievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Yet thechallenges for Human Development remain formidable. The point was amplyclear in what the Finance Minister spoke in his Budget Speech of 2004 asbelow: -

The countries of the world, India included, have set for themselves theMillennium Development Goals (MDGs). Our date with destiny is notat the end of the millennium, but in the year 2015. Will we achievethose goals? In the 11 years that remain, it is in our hand to shape ourdestiny. Progress is not always on a linear path, nor is it inevitable.

2.4 In the 10

th

Five Year Plan (2002-2007), the Planning Commission hasoutlined Indias human development goals and targets for the next five to tenyears. Most of these are related to and are more ambitious than the MDGs.A brief list of these targets for the 10th Plan and beyond are as follows:-

Reduction of poverty ratio by 5percentage points by 2007 and15 percentage points by 2012.

All children in school by 2003; all children to complete five yearsof schooling by 2007.

Reduction in gender gaps in literacy and wage rates by at least50% by 2007.

Increase in literacy rate to 75% within the 10th

Plan period.


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Reduction of infant mortality rate to 45 per thousand live birthsby 2007 and to 28 by 2012.

Reduction of maternal mortality rate to 2 per thousand live birthsby 2007 and to 1 by 2012.

Reduction in the decadal rate of population growth between

2001 and 2011 to 16.2%. Providing gainful and high quality employment at least to the

addition to the labour force over the 10th Plan period. All villages to have sustained access to potable drinking water

within the 10th Plan Period. Increase in forest and tree cover to 25% by 2007 and 33% by

2012; Specific HIV/AIDS targets within the 10th Plan Period. Specific malaria targets within the 10th Plan Period.

3. Variants of Indicators3.1 Of the 48 indicators for the 8 Goals, 35 were found relevant to India.Some of the variants of the measures being followed by India in assessmentand/or, the indicators with conceptual disparity with international definitionshave been discussed in the following sections.

1. The poverty rate according to the Government of India definition isat variance with that according to international definition. Indiaunlike most countries has different poverty lines at sub-nationallevel. The poverty ratios are estimated for different states of thecountry and have state specific poverty lines for rural and urbanareas.

2. All-India implicit poverty line for the urban areas is nearly 40%higher than that for rural areas. The state with the highest priceshas a poverty line that is 57% higher than that for the state withlowest prices. These variations are mainly on account of pricedifferentials across states and for rural and urban areas.

3. Applying a uniform poverty line for the country as a whole wouldunderestimate poverty level in urban areas and overestimate in

rural areas. Uniform international poverty line such as US$ 1 (PPP)per day can distort the picture further.

4. The poverty line indicator in the MDG for Prevalence ofunderweight children is the percentage of children under five yearsof age whose weight for age is less than minus two standarddeviations from the median for the international referencepopulation aged 0-59 months. In Indian context, data on thisindicator are not available. The National Family Health Survey(NFHS) collected data on the under-weight children below 3 yearsof age in 1998-99. In 1992-93 surveys, children between 0-47

months of age were considered and as such results of the twosurveys are not comparable.


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5. In estimating the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

(Target 2: MDG 1), the recommended indicator is proportion ofpopulation below minimum level of dietary energy consumption. InIndia, data are available for the first time from the District Level

Rapid Household Survey (DLHS) 2002-05, by which district levelestimates for hidden hunger or micro- nutrient deficiencies andmalnutrition are available. Repeat surveys of this nature would berequired to track direction of changes. However, other measuressuch as incidence of malnourishment (e.g. anaemia) among womenand children as per NFHS 1998-99 are also being consideredindicative in absence of well-defined indicator for hunger. Usingthe norm of 2425K Cal per CU for rural and 2100 K Cal per CU forurban, proportion of households with sufficient food for members ofthe household is also estimated state-wise.

6. Net Enrolment Ratio (NER) in primary education is one prescribedindicator (Target 3: MDG 2) defined as the ratio of the number ofchildren of official school age who are enrolled in primary school tothe total population of children of official school age. In India NERis not calculated. Instead, Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) which isdefined as the number of pupils enrolled in a given level ofeducation, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of thepopulation in the normative age group for the same level ofeducation, is calculated for Class I-V and age 6-11 years from thedata collected by Ministry of HRD through an annual return fromschools and educational institutions. The limitation of this indicatoris that, in some cases, the figure is more than 100% due toenrolment of children beyond the age group 6-11 years. Thus, itmay not be quite indicative of the situation.

7. Another prescribed indicator for Target 3: MDG2 is Proportion ofpupils starting Grade 1 who reach Grade 5. It is also known assurvival rate to Grade 5, and is defined as the percentage of acohort of pupils enrolled in Grade 1 of the primary level of educationin a given school-year who are expected to reach Grade 5. Thisindicator is measured in India alongside dropout rate as well so

that changes could be better explained.

8. The third indicator for Target 3: MDG2 is literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds, or youth literacy rate that is defined as the percentage of thepopulation 15-24 years old who can both read and write withunderstanding a short simple statement on everyday life. In India,literacy rate of the youth age group is not calculated. Instead,literacy rate for age group 7 years and above has been used fromCensus data. However, adult literacy rate for 15 years and abovebased on Census data are also available gender disaggregated andstate-wise.


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9. One prescribed indicator for Target 4: MDG3 is Ratio of literatewomen to men 15-24 years old (literacy gender parity index) whichis the ratio of the female literacy rate to male literacy rate for theage-group 15-24 years. The ratio of literate women to literate menis available for the population in the age group of 7 years plus

instead of 15-24 years and the source is Census data andcalculated state-wise and at national level.

10. Maternal Morality Rate (MMR), one of the indicators for maternalhealth (Target 6: Goal 5) is the number of maternal deaths per100,000 live births. Its estimate in India at state level is not veryrobust as system of registering deaths for maternity causes is proneto biases. Standard survey method for the estimate is yet to be inplace.

11. Two of the indicators prescribed for combating spread of HIV/AIDS

(Target 7: MDG 6) are (i) HIV prevalence among pregnant womenaged 15-24 years and (ii) condom use percentage at high-risk age.Data on these are collected through annual round of HIV sentinelsurveillance at identified sentinel sites (clinics) conducted during 12weeks from 1st August to 31st October every year. The estimatesare too specific to high-risk zone, both at state-level and nationallevel. A second survey known as Behavioural SentinelSurveillance Survey (BSS) is however, conducted once in threeyears to monitor trends in risk behaviours among generalpopulation and high-risk groups. The findings of the two for high-risk groups differ as the second survey is conducted by anindependent organisation.

12. One composite indicator for reversing incidence of malaria andother diseases (Target 8: MDG6) is comprised of prevalence ofmalaria i.e. the number of cases of malaria per 1,00,000 people anddeaths rate associated with malaria i.e. the number of deathscaused by malaria per 1,00,000 population. In India data onannual parasite incidence (annual number of malaria positive casesper thousand population) and deaths due to malaria per 1,00,000population are collected from 22,975 PHCs; 2,935 CHCs and

13,758 malaria clinics. However, limitation of these rates is thatthey grossly underestimate the incidence in tribal, hilly, difficult andinaccessible areas, which cover 20% of population but 80% ofmalaria cases.

13. Other composite indicators for Target 8: MDG 6 include Prevalenceand death rates associated with Tuberculosis and Proportion of

Tuberculosis cases detected and cured under directly observedtreatment short course (DOTS). In India these rates are calculatedon the basis of nation wide Annual Risk of TB Infection (ARTI)survey conducted by National Tuberculosis Institute and

Tuberculosis Research Centre. However, death rate due to TB as


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per notified cases is grossly underestimate and there is norepresentative data available to estimate it correctly at present.

14. One of the recommended indicator for reversing the loss ofenvironmental resources (Target 9: MDG7) is Energy use (Kg oil

equivalent) per $1 GDP (PPP), which is defined as the commercialenergy use measured in units of oil equivalent per $1 of GDPconverted from national currencies using PPP conversion factors.In the Indian context, commercial energy use in Kg oil equivalentper unit of GDP includes consumption figures for coal and lignite,crude petroleum, natural gas (including feed stock) and electricity(hydro and nuclear). As consumption data of coal and lignite arenot collected and compiled by any single agency, off-take ofindigenous coal and lignite and net import are taken asconsumption with the assumption that stock changes at bothproducers and consumers end remain the same. Again grade-

wise distribution and dispatches data is not available and nor that ofthe off-take. Therefore, average GCV in kilo cal per kg for dispatchis taken as the average GCV of colliery consumption. Till now GCVconcept has not been adopted for Indian coal and lignite like othercoal producing countries or the world.

15. Carbon dioxide emissions per capita is another indicator forenvironmental sustainability (Target 9: MDG 7), which is defined asthe total amount of carbon dioxide emitted by a country as aconsequence of human (production and consumption) activities,divided by the population of the country. In the global CO2 emissionestimate of the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre of OAKRidge National Laboratory, USA, the calculated country estimatesof emissions include emission from consumption of solid, liquid andgas fuels, cement production and gas flaring. However, Indiasnational reporting to the UN Framework Convention on ClimateChange, which follows the Inter-Governmental Panel on ClimateChange guidelines, is based on national emission inventories andcovers all sources of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions aswell as carbon sinks (such as forests).

16. Proportion of Population using solid fuels which is the proportion ofthe population that relies on biomass (wood, charcoal, cropresidues and dung) and coal as the primary source of domesticenergy for cooking and hearing, is another indicator forenvironmental sustainability (Target 9: MDG 7). In the Indiancontext, per thousand distributions of households reporting use ofsolid fuels for cooking has been used. The data is captured throughhousehold consumer expenditure surveys of NSSO. Here one ofthe energy sources only is recorded. In case of more than one typeof energy use, the type most commonly used is recorded.

17. Towards making available the benefits of new technologies,especially information and communication (Target 18: MDG 8), the


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indicators prescribed are (i) Telephone lines and cellularsubscribers per 100 population and (ii) Personal Computers in useper 100 population/internet users per 100 population. In India inaddition to normal phones, community access has been providedthrough Public Call Offices (PCOs), Village Public Telephones

(VPTs) and Rural Community Phones (RCPs). Hence there is noestimate as per UN prescription. Cellular mobile services areprovided by private operators in a big way. There are UnifiedAccess Service Licences, having large share of private operators.As a result the total number of telephones of all types together isconsidered to calculate the overall tele-density.

4. Progress to MDGs4.1 Against this background, the First Country Report on MDGs broughtout by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation in December2005 captured the Indian scenario in the

4.2 MDG framework for each of the eight goals as summarized below:-

(MDG.1) Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger:The proportionof people below the poverty line is to be reduced fromnearly 37.5% in 1990 to about 18.75% by 2015. Thepoverty head count ratio is 26.1% in 1999-2000 withpoverty gap ratio of 5.2% and share of poorest quintile innational consumption being 10.1% for rural sector and7.9% for urban sector and prevalence of under weightchildren of the order of 47%.

(MDG.2) Achieve universal primary education: The primaryschool enrolment rate is to be raised to 100% and thedropouts assessed as 41.96% in 1991-92 is to be totallywiped out by 2015. The dropout rate in primaryeducation has been assessed as 34.9% in 2002-2003.

The gross enrolment ratio in primary education hasregistered an increase of nearly 20 percentage points inten years from 1992-93 to 2002-03 for girls (93%) andthat for boys remains stationery near 100%. The literacy

rate (7 years and above) has increased from 52.2 % in1991 to 64.84% in 2001.

(MDG.3) Promote gender equality and empower women:Towards achieving parity in female-male ratio ineducation, the proportion in primary education of 71:100in 1990-91 improved to 78:100 in 2000-01. The increasein secondary education during the same period was from49:100 to 63:100.

(MDG.4) Reduce child mortality: The under five mortality rate

(U5MR) is to be reduced from 125 deaths per thousandlive births in 1988-92 to 41 in 2015. The U5MR has


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decreased to 98 per thousand live births during 1998-2002. The infant morality rate (IMR) has also come downfrom 80 per thousand live births in 1990 to 60 perthousand in 2003.

(MDG.5) Improve maternal health: The maternal mortality rate(MMR) is to be reduced from 437 deaths per 100,000 livebirths in 1991 to 109 by 2015. The value of MMR in 1998has been assessed as 407. Attendance of skilled healthpersonnel at the time of births has increased from 25.5%in 1992-93 to 39.8% in 2002-03.

(MDG.6) Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases: Indiahas a low prevalence of HIV among pregnant women ascompared to other developing countries, yet theprevalence rate has increased from 0.74 per thousand

pregnant women in 2002 to 0.86 in 2003. Theprevalence and death rates associated with malaria areconsistently coming down. The death rate associatedwith TB has come down from 56 deaths per 100,000population in 1990 to 34 in 2003.

(MDG.7) Ensure environmental sustainability: The total forestcover is 20.64% as per 2003 assessment and is tendingto increase. 19% of the total land area is under reservedand protected forests to maintain the biological diversity.

The energy use has declined consistently from about 36kg oil equivalent in 1991-92 to about 33 kg oil equivalentin 2003-04 to reduce GDP worth Rs. 1000.

(MDG.8) Develop a global partnership for development: Theoverall tele-density has increased from 0.67% in 1991 to10.8% in November, 2005. Use of Personal Computers(PCs) has increased from 5.4 million PCs in 2001 to 14.5million in 2005. There are 5.6 million Internet subscribersas on J une, 2005.

5. Sub-national Targets5.1 The Indian scenario of development trends in the MDG framework isvastly different from other developing countries, mainly due to the large size ofits area and population. The attainment of goals for India at the national levelis deeply associated with sub-national performance. It is to be appreciatedthat the rate of change for the states may not be proportional or equivalent tothat being aimed at for the country as a whole? To illustrate this, we mayconsider the case of Under Five Mortality Rate (U5MR), which as per MDG-4has to be reduced from 125 deaths per thousand live births in 1988-92 to 41by 2015, i.e. a reduction by two-thirds has been envisaged for the nation as awhole. The question is: is it logical to apply the same reduction rate of two-

thirds uniformly to all States? Keralas U5MR in 1988-92 was about 26.1 perthousand live births. By the 2/3rd rule, Keralas 2015 U5MR target should be


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about 8 per thousand live births. On the other hand, UP having U5MR of 182per thousand live births will have to aim at U5MR of 60-65 by 2015, which isstill higher than the national target. It is more logical to bring down the U5MRof UP by more than 2/3rd rather than reducing that of Kerala to 8. The impactof Kerala on the overall change for the country as a whole is hardly

perceptible, however, big it may be. The U5MR in Kerala is plateauing and afurther dip may need massive intervention. Plan intervention of the samemagnitude in bigger States like UP may cause bigger effect at the State levelas well as national level. Same is the case with Infant Mortality Rate (IMR).

That amounts to saying that there is a need to set targets for 2015 indicatorvalues for each of the States and the distance of those targets from the basevalues of the indicators should be taken into consideration in deciding on themagnitude of intervention required at state-level.

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