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“Mobile Communications, a key factor for growth and productivity improvement across the economy”
OCTOBER 2017
• For more than 3 decades since introduction of mobile telecommunicationsinto our lives, technological evolutions are extremely rapid.
• These evolutions are represented in the 4 generations systems (1G 4G)
• Typical duration for the development of a technology in the wirelesstelecommunications industry (from launch of standardisation up to thepilot commercial operation) is a decade.
• Each new system is introduced while the previous ones come to maturity.
• Evolution in devices is also parallel; these are called to catch up with thecontinuous and rapid developments in networks. Cutting edge smartphones are compatible with 2G,3G,4G technologies and offer a series ofservices.
2Opinion on Architecture for Mobile Telephony
Wireless Access Networks
Mobile Telecommunications Evolution (1G 4G)
Technological evolutions are extremely rapid
3Opinion on Architecture for Mobile Telephony
Wireless Access Networks
Gene-
ration
Services Technologies/Innovation/Capabilities Networks
1G Voice Analog Transmission, FDMA Multiple Access AMPS, TACS
2G Voice Digital Communications, FDMA, TDMA, CDMA
Multiple Access
GSM, CDMA
2,5G Data Packet Switching, Speeds of up to 384 kbps. GPRS, EDGE
3G Voice,
Multimedi
a
CDMA Multiple Access, Increase in capacity and
Improvement in voice/video transmission quality
WCDMA-
UMTS,
CDMA2000
3,5G Data Packet Switching, speeds1-10 Mbps HSPA,
WiMAX
4G, 4G+ Data Comprehensive IP architecture, Multiple
OFDMA access. MIMO Technologies. Speeds of
tenths and up to hundreds Mbps. Voice services
over data network (VoIP)
LTE,
LTE-A
Mobile Telecommunications Evolution (1G 4G+)
• The 1st 4G standardisation (3GPP Rel.8) was finalised in 2008.
• Ever since, 6 upgrades in the standard (Rel. 9 to 14) have been realised, the key ones being :
• LTE-A (Rel.10), finalised in 2010.
• LTE-A Pro (Rel.13), finalised in March 2016.
• The first 4G commercial network operated in Stockholm in 2009.
• Currently, are in operation approximately
• 644 LTE commercial networks in more than 200 countries worldwide.
• 100 LTE-A commercial networks in more than 50 countries worldwide.
4Opinion on Architecture for Mobile Telephony
Wireless Access Networks
4G-LTE Radio Networks/ Standardisation & Commercial Development
5Opinion on Architecture for Mobile Telephony
Wireless Access Networks
OFDM/OFDMA techniques in down-link, SC-FDMA in up-link.
Adaptive differential /codification and scheduling of telecommunication traffic.
Inter-Cell Interference Coordination - ICIC.
Use of ΜΙΜΟ techniques (multiplexing, diversity, beamforming).
Multicasting & Broadcasting Support.
Carrier aggregation.
OFDMA MIMO
Interference
Receiver
Transmitter
User 1
power
Duration of OFDMA symbols
4G-LTE Radio Networks/ Key technologies
6Opinion on Architecture for Mobile Telephony Wireless Access
Networks
Technique Analysis
Duplex method FDD, TDD, half-duplex FDD
Channel codification Turbo Code
Maximum mobile speed 350 km/h
Channel Range (MHz) 1.4, 3, 5, 10, 15, 20
FormulationUL: QPSK, 16QAM, 64QAM(optional)
DL: QPSK, 16QAM, 64QAM
Multiple access methodUL: SC-FDMA (50Mbps @ 20MHz)
DL: OFDMΑ (>100Mbps+ @ 20MHz)
Multiple antennas techniquesUL: Up to 1 level of data per UE and MU-MIMO
DL: Up to 4 levels of data per UE and MU-MIMO
Maximum transmission rate
UL: 75Mbps (@ 20MHz)
DL: 150Mbps (UE Category 4, 2x2 MIMO, @ 20MHz)
DL: 300Mbps (UE category 5, 4x4 MIMO @ 20MHz)
Cell radius 5 - 100km (System performance reduces after 30km)
End- user latency < 10ms
4G-LTE Radio Networks/ Key technologies
7Opinion on Architecture for Mobile Telephony
Wireless Access Networks
× 1000
Generation Technology Max.
Download
Rate
Typical
Download
Rate
2G G GPRS 0.1 Mbps <0.1 Mbps
E EDGE 0.3 Mbps 0.1 Mbps
3G 3G 3G (Basic) 0.3 Mbps 0.1 Mbps
H HSPA 7.2 Mbps 1.5 Mbps
H+ HSPA+ 21 Mbps 4 Mbps
H+ DC-HSPA+ 42 Mbps 8 Mbps
4G 4G LTE 100 Mbps 15 Mbps
4G+ LTE-A 300 Mbps 45 Mbps
2G/3G/4G Data Networks Speeds
Better networks:
•4G networks cover half of the earth’s
population (4 bn people).
•$ 900 bn investments.
Greater connectivity:
•4,8 bn people own a mobile telephone.
•$1 trillion of annual contribution to
global GDP (4.2%), 36 million jobs,
$500 bn of public revenues.
Richer services:
•Internet (3.5 bn users – 1 million new
users each day), social networks, e-gov,
health services, etc.
Mobile Communications Worldwide
Number of social network users
2 bn 2.5 bn2015 2016
29%Increase
1.5 bn people
have carried out purchases
via mobile phone
1.3 bn people
have used governmental services via
mobile phone
Average mobile broadband speed
13.5 Mbps 16.6 Mbps2015 2016
Source: 2017 Mobile Industry Impact Report, GSMA
The EU vision is that in ten years’ time Telecoms and IT shall beunified in a common infrastructure with extremely high capacity.
Ensuring flexibility and expandability requires “virtualised”network operations, carried out by generic purpose, programmedand high performance hardware, providing the resources fortransmission, routing, storing and processing data.
5G networks shall integrate telecommunications, IT and storingresources in one programmable unified infrastructure, allowingthe optimum use of allocated resources.
9Opinion on Architecture for Mobile Telephony
Wireless Access Networks
Next Generation (5G)
Software and Service centric transformation
TelecomsMultiple stakeholders
Bit pipe Enabling platform
Phones Things
Procedures Services
Protocols APIs
Dedicated Hardware Orchestrated Resources
Network Function Virtualized Software Instances
Network Slice
10Opinion on Architecture for Mobile Telephony
Wireless Access Networks
Next Generation (5G)
Next generation (5G) has already taken its first steps
It is foreseen that 100 times higher than the current cutting-edge systems shall be provided.
Already, since March 2017, 3GPP published the first studies forRelease 14, which constitutes the first version systematicallyreferring to 5G.
The evolution of 5G standardisation is depicted below
The1st wide-range pilot operation is scheduled for 2020 (TokyoOlympic Games).
11Opinion on Architecture for Mobile Telephony
Wireless Access Networks
Rel. 14 Rel. 15 Rel. 16
Ιούνιος 2017
Σεπτέμβριος 2018
Μάρτιος 2020
Next Generation (5G)
June September March
Evolution towards 5th generation (5G) (2020-2030): Scenarios & Requirements
12Opinion on Architecture for Mobile Telephony
Wireless Access Networks
Source: HUAWEI Technologies
Evolution towards 5th generation (5G) (2020-2030): Scenarios & Requirements
13Opinion on Architecture for Mobile Telephony
Wireless Access Networks
Mean time of transmission 300-
500Mbps & max >10Gbps.
Response time (latency) <
1ms.
100% coverage.
1000 times reduction of energy
consumption.
High Reliability (99,999%).
30× device density.
10-100× more connected
devices.
Higher security levels in
communication.
Source: NGMN Alliance,5G White Paper
Possible Operation Scenarios Requirements
• Demand for mobile data traffic is almost doubling each year
• In ten-years’ time, 10,000 times higher telecommunications volumes (bits/sec/Hz/km2)shall be required
Evolution towards 5th generation (5G) (2020-2030): The “10.000×” Challenge
14Opinion on Architecture for Mobile Telephony
Wireless Access Networks
50xBSs/km2
Network Density
Βελτιωμένη επίδοση με χρήση Massive
MIMO, CoMP, καταπίεση
παρεμβολών
Αυξημένη επαναχρησιμοποίηση φάσματος με μεγαλύτερη
πυκνότητα BSs και HetNets (macro, micro, pico, femto)
10.000xbps/Hz/km2
Capacity
Περισσότερο φάσμα σε ζώνες < 6 GHz και
σε mmWaves (30-100 GHz)
10xbps/HzSpectral
Efficiency
20xHz
Bandwidth
Improved efficiency with the use of massive MIMO, CoMP, compression of interferences
More spectrum in zones <6GHz and in mmWaves
Increased refarming with greater BSs and HetNets density (macro, micro, pico, femto)
Evolution towards 5th generation (5G) (2020-2030): Technological Perspectives
15Opinion on Architecture for Mobile Telephony
Wireless Access Networks
Spectrum in 5G networks
Massive MIMO Technology
(Source: “Full-Dimension MIMO:
Status and Challenges in Design
and Implementation”)
700 ΜHz for 5G
Existing for 4G initial use and later on for 5G
New spectrum 5G (mmWaves)New spectrum 3.5
GHz for 5G
84% €143 bn€540 bn
124% Penetration (457
million subscribers with
752 million connections)
84% of the population owns a mobile telephone
Important contribution to GDP
(3.4% in 2016 ➤ 3.9% in
2020)(CAGR 0.4%)
Mobile data CAGR 42%
143 bn euros turnover
2,6 million
jobs
Important contribution toemployment
€100bn
Important contribution to
public revenues
MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS IN EUROPE
Europe is the most highly penetrated mobile region in the world, as 4G shifts
continues.
Source: The Mobile Economy: Europe 2017, GSMA
MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS IN EUROPE
5G connections in Europe will reach a third of total connections by 2025
(bn €)
Source : The Mobile Economy: Europe 2017, GSMA
161 164 167 171 174
94 95 97 99 101
286
310
338368
399
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Άμεση συμβολή Έμμεση συμβολή
Συμβολή στην παραγωγικότητα Ποσοστό επί του ΑΕΠ
3,4
%
3,5%
3,6%
3,8%
3,9
%
Growing contribution to european economy
5G IN EUROPE
Industrial digitization and automation drive GDP growth to 5%
Source : The Mobile Economy: Europe 2017, GSMA
0 2 20 61 115 167 2140102030405060708090100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250260270280290300
0
50
100
150
200
250
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Συνδέσεις Υιοθέτηση Κάλυψη πληθυσμού
3,4%
3,6%
3,8%
73%
31%30%
60%
40%
70%
50%
20%
10%
rate
%
no
.o
f co
nn
ections
(in m
illio
ns)
Mobile telephony operators’ revenues constantly keep diminishing
(a 43% drop between 2010 – 2016, the largest in Europe), however…
GREECE - INDUSTRY’S FINANCIAL DATA
74%
66%
39%34%
18%14% 12%
0%
0%
-8%-10%
-17% -18%-21%
-26%-28% -29%
-31%-36% -36% -37%
-43%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Revenues from services amounted to 1.83 bn, reduced by 1.3% in 2016,
indicating stabilization or even recovery trends for 2017.
Cumulative loss of revenues from services since the start of the economic
crisis (2008) amounts to 57%.
…for 2017, international analysts* foresee an increase of revenues from services for
Greece by 1.4%, with a further improvement at 1.9% for 2018
*Merrill Lynch
Revenues from services
Source : Providers’ data p rocess ed
2.502
2.0721.935
1.860 1.835
-9,9%
-17,2%
-6,6%
-3,9%
-1,3%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
σε € Μεταβολή από προηγούμενο έτος
GREECE - INDUSTRY’S FINANCIAL DATA
In 2016, data increased spectacularly (58.3%), while messages
(SMS & MMS) were reduced by 30.8%, since subscribers tend to
use IP applications to communicate. Talk time (minutes), after three
years of increase, were reduced by 5.5%, returning to the usage level of 2012.
VOLUME AND REVENUES PER SERVICE
Service volumes
Source : Providers’ data p rocess ed
40,3 41,142,8 43,0
40,7
8,24 6,82
5,42 4,72 3,26
11,0
15,1
19,2
32,7
51,8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Λεπτά ομιλίας σε δισ. Μηνύματα σε δισ. Δεδομένα σε PB
Despite a high increase in usage for
2016, compared to other OECD countries,
data usage is very low in Greece (0.4
Gb per capita per month compared to 2.88
Gb in OECD and 3.1 Gb in european
countries).
It is worth mentioning the very high data usage
in scandinavian and baltic countries, since a
growing number of european providers are
adopting the unlimited data usage model, which
was initially implemented in Finland.
GB κατά κεφαλή ανά μήνα (2016)
Πηγή : http://dfmoni tor .eu/networkeconomics/
16,1
8,9
6,3
5,5
5,3
5,1
4,5
4,3
3,7
3,6
3,2
2,9
2,9
2,6
2,4
2,3
2
1,8
1,5
1,3
1,2
1,2
1,1
1
0,9
0,9
0,9
0,9
0,8
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,4
0,4
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Φινλανδία
Λετονία
Αυστρία
Δανία
Σουηδία
Εσθονία
Κορέα
Ισλανδία
Ιαπωνία
ΗΠΑ
Ιρλανδία
Ελβετία
Λουξεμβούργο
Νορβηγία
Πολωνία
Αυστραλία
Λιθουανία
Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο
Ιταλία
Γαλλία
Καναδάς
Τουρκία
Ισπανία
Πορτογαλία
Βέλγιο
Γερμανία
Ολλανδία
Ρουμανία
Ν. Ζηλανδία
Σλοβενία
Τσεχία
Ουγγαρία
Ελλάδα
Μεξικό
DATA USAGE IS VERY LOW IN
GREECE
Cutting down on borrowing costsThe industry has minimized its borrowing costs from the banking system.
Source: Providers’ data processed
1.943
1.550
1.2491.190
1.027 1.011945 898
-0,4%
-20,2% -19,5%
-4,7%
-13,7%
-1,5%
-6,5% -5,0%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
2.000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Operating costs except for amortisation & interconnection and termination expenses
σε € Μεταβολή από προηγούμενο έτος
1,491,41
0,77
0,640,57 0,53
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *
Foreign to own
Cutting down on operating costsProviders have limited their operating costs by 54%
from 2009 to 2016.
A FINANCIALLY HEALTHY INDUSTRY
Providers have adapted to the conditions of greek economy’s recession and financial
system’s lack of liquidity, limiting both their expenses and borrowing
investments
Source: Providers’ data processed
290,7
254,6
308,8
346,7 351,0
-17,5%
-12,4%
21,3%
12,3%
1,2%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Επενδύσεις σε εκ.€ Μεταβολή από προηγούμενο έτος
THE INDUSTRY REMAINS ONE OF THE LARGEST AND MORE STABLE
INVESTORS
The industry’s total investments exceeded 351 million euros in 2016, since 4G
networks geographic and population extension is ongoing.
Despite the difficulties faced by the industry, its annual investments over the last
three years have increased by approximately 100 million euros.
Since the onset of the economic crisis (2008), the industry
has invested 3.17 bn euros
Roll out of new generation networks is expected to
create the necessary broadband dynamics that
shall support new 5G services
2017
2020
€2.5bn
The results of investments in new
generation networks will be the following:
҉Ultra-fast mobile internet speeds
҉Possibility of supporting innovative video streaming
services
҉Extension of geographic coverage
FUTURE INVESTMENTS
Telecommunications companies have announced 2.5 bn € investments in
fixed and mobile networks for the 2017-2020 period.
2017 ranking based on Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI)
Πηγή : Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) 2017
GREECE COMPARED TO THE ΕU
Greece is far behind the european average (holding the 26th place)
GREECE COMPARED TO THE ΕU
The country fails to converge with the european average, lagging steadily
behind them with a 4-5 year gap as far as digital modernization is
concerned
DESI – Evolution over time
Πηγή : Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) 2017
Public revenues from special fee in mobile telephony (in million €)
Source : Bank of Greece
65,5 76,6 86,5 95,9 107,2
229,6241,7
273,7
375,3
312,1286,0
250,5224,3
210,1187,7
82,0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan. 2007: Increase of special fee
Aug. 2009: Increase of special fee
• The special mobile telephony fee places a burden of 12%-20% on all bills, which, along with VAT,
increases indirect taxation to 39%-49%. Public State revenues from this special fee amounted in
187.7 million euros for 2016.
• In 2016, the industry contributed 37.7 million euros to HTPC, which exceed by far the HTPC’s operating
costs (10.5 million euros), thus further contributing to public revenues. The HTPC has paid 582 million
euros* to the greek public State in the 2000-2016 period, without including revenues from spectrum
frequencies’ auctions.
* “Kathimerini“
newspaper, 26/9/2017
issue, p.21
THE PUBLIC REVENUES ARE DECLINING
Due to over taxation
The industry is burdened with additional charges ~225 million euros
Financial Solution This is example for a subtitle
GROWTH SCENARIOS – CONCLUSIONS
Mobile broadband
•Baseline scenario: penetration reaches
84% in 2021, which is the current european
average
•Convergence scenario: penetration
reaches 100%
Mobile data
•Baseline scenario: data penetration increases by
42% annually, reaching 2.3 GB per inhabitant in
2021, without converging with european average
•Convergence scenario: Greece converges with the
average of Italy, Spain and Portugal in 2021 (at 6.8
GB per inhabitant per month)
84%
50%
100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Evolution of mobile broadband penetration per scenario
Σενάριο βάσης Σενάριο σύγκλισης
2,3
0,4
6,8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
GB
/mo
nth
/cap
ita
Evolution GB / per capita by scenario
Σενάριο βάσης Σενάριο σύγκλισης
Financial Solution This is example for a subtitle
GROWTH SCENARIOS – CONCLUSIONS
0.51%0.75%
0.74%
1.30%1.25%
.2,05%
Σενάριο βάσης Σενάριο σύγκλισης
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
Additional contribution to GDP per scenario in 2021
Επίδραση από αυξημένη χρήση δεδομένων που δεν ενσωματώνεται στο mobile broadband
Επίδραση από επέκταση διείσδυσης mobile broadband
992.9
1,620.2
Σενάριο βάσης Σενάριο σύγκλισης
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
Impact on public revenues per scenario in million € in 2021
If the required reforms are implemented, so that Greece may digitally converge with
the rest of Europe (Convergence scenario), the mobile industry’s additional
contribution to GDP may reach 2.05% or 3.06 bn euros, while its additional
contribution to public revenues shall amount to 1.62 bn euros.
Financial Solution This is example for a subtitle
Simplification and implementation of the regulatory framework in order to speed up the
licensing process of existing and new base stations. The aim is to solve pending issues in
view of network upgrades, so that planned investments may be faster implemented
Allocation of spectrum areas, ready for use. The aim is to make use of EU best practices,
to review frequency fees and the licensing cost of base stations, so as to safeguard and
facilitate the providers’ long-term investment plan.
Removal of the special fee distortion. In Greece, consumers bear the cost of up to 48.8%
of their final bill when the maximum charge in the EU is 25%
A campaign to inform competent authorities and citizens about the importance of
infrastructure, services and digital technology in the development of the economy and
society, in the context of the implementation of the national digital strategy
01
02
03
04
Strengthening demand by introducing incentives for the adoption of innovative mobile
services by businesses, citizens, local authorities and public administration. 05
GROWTH SCENARIOS – CONCLUSIONS & PREREQUISITES
A prerequisite for the country’s successful convergence and utilization of benefits in the economy is
that the State undertake immediate initiatives, to upgrade Greece’s position on the european digital
map.
To this end, the following are required:
“Mobile first” in formulating a Digital Strategy