Anchorage Chamber 1/9/06

Fran UlmerDirector

Institute of Social and Economic Research

Outline Outline

ISER OverviewISER Overview Anchorage at 90 Anchorage at 90 Alaska Natural Gas Alaska Natural Gas Kids Count Kids Count Soon to be released reportsSoon to be released reports

ISERISERThe Institute of Social and Economic The Institute of Social and Economic

ResearchResearch

MissionMission ISER enhances the well-being of Alaskans and ISER enhances the well-being of Alaskans and

others, through non-partisan research that helps others, through non-partisan research that helps people understand social and economic systems people understand social and economic systems and supports informed public and private and supports informed public and private decision-making. ISER pursues its mission bydecision-making. ISER pursues its mission by Focusing attention on critical economic and social Focusing attention on critical economic and social

issues in Alaska , the Arctic , and similar regions; issues in Alaska , the Arctic , and similar regions; Engaging in basic and applied research leading to Engaging in basic and applied research leading to

better understanding of those issues; and better understanding of those issues; and Disseminating knowledge through publications, Disseminating knowledge through publications,

community involvement, public service, and teaching. community involvement, public service, and teaching.

The Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) was The Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) was established by the Alaska Legislature in 1961. ISER's research established by the Alaska Legislature in 1961. ISER's research spans Alaska's modern history, examining everything from the spans Alaska's modern history, examining everything from the effects of the massive 1964 earthquake to the current debate effects of the massive 1964 earthquake to the current debate over how to help Alaska's troubled salmon industry. over how to help Alaska's troubled salmon industry.

ISER is part of the College of Business and Public Policy at ISER is part of the College of Business and Public Policy at UAA. It has a core staff of about 30 faculty members, research UAA. It has a core staff of about 30 faculty members, research associates, and support personnel. Roughly one quarter of its associates, and support personnel. Roughly one quarter of its budget is from university money and three quarters from grants budget is from university money and three quarters from grants and contracts. ISER staff members not only do research but also and contracts. ISER staff members not only do research but also teach undergraduate and graduate courses. teach undergraduate and graduate courses.

ISER maintains the state's largest economic database and ISER maintains the state's largest economic database and forecasts population and employment growth. All of ISER's forecasts population and employment growth. All of ISER's research findings are published and are available through research findings are published and are available through ISER's offices at UAA. Many are also available on this Web site ISER's offices at UAA. Many are also available on this Web site and we're continually adding more.and we're continually adding more.

Economic Analysis Economic Analysis ReportsReports

Memorandum on the Economic and Demographic Impacts of a Knik Arm Bridge Memorandum on the Economic and Demographic Impacts of a Knik Arm Bridge September 2005. By Scott September 2005. By Scott Goldsmith. Goldsmith.

Economics of UA and the U Med District Economics of UA and the U Med District . December 2004. PDF. By Scott Goldsmith. . December 2004. PDF. By Scott Goldsmith.

Economic Economic ssignificance of the Alaska Railroadignificance of the Alaska Railroad. December 2004. By Bradford Tuck and  Mary Killorin. December 2004. By Bradford Tuck and  Mary Killorin

2005 2005 Alaska Construction Spending ForecastAlaska Construction Spending Forecast. January 2005. By Scott Goldsmith and    Mary Killorin. . January 2005. By Scott Goldsmith and    Mary Killorin.

Economic Considerations in Thinking About United States Marine AquacultureEconomic Considerations in Thinking About United States Marine Aquaculture . By Gunnar Knapp August . By Gunnar Knapp August 20042004

..Federal Spending and Revenues In AlaskaFederal Spending and Revenues In Alaska . November 2003. By Scott Goldsmith and Eric Larson. . November 2003. By Scott Goldsmith and Eric Larson.

Economic Impact of the 2001 Special Olympics World Winter Games AlaskaEconomic Impact of the 2001 Special Olympics World Winter Games Alaska . June 2002. By Scott Goldsmith, . June 2002. By Scott Goldsmith, Virgene Hanna, Rosyland Frazier Virgene Hanna, Rosyland Frazier

Evaluation of the Economic ImpactEvaluation of the Economic Impact of the September 2001 Kodiak Star Launch,. January 2002. By Alexandra of the September 2001 Kodiak Star Launch,. January 2002. By Alexandra Hill.Hill.

Ted Stevens Anchorage International AirportTed Stevens Anchorage International Airport : Economic Significance 2000 July 2001 By  Scott Goldsmith.: Economic Significance 2000 July 2001 By  Scott Goldsmith.

ANILCA and the Seward EconomyANILCA and the Seward Economy. January 2001. Scott Goldsmith and Stephanie Martin.. January 2001. Scott Goldsmith and Stephanie Martin.

The Economic Significance of the Power Cost EqualizationThe Economic Significance of the Power Cost Equalization Program.November 1998. By Scott  Goldsmith. Program.November 1998. By Scott  Goldsmith.

Expanding Job Opportunities for Alaska NativesExpanding Job Opportunities for Alaska Natives . November 1998. By G. Williamson McDiarmid, Scott Goldsmith, . November 1998. By G. Williamson McDiarmid, Scott Goldsmith, Mary Killorin, Suzanne Sharp, and others.Mary Killorin, Suzanne Sharp, and others.

Anchorage International Airport 1998 Economic SignificanceAnchorage International Airport 1998 Economic Significance . September 1998. By Scott Goldsmith.. September 1998. By Scott Goldsmith.

Going Private: The 1968 Sale of The Alaska Communication SystemGoing Private: The 1968 Sale of The Alaska Communication System Research Summary No. 59.    PDF. Research Summary No. 59.    PDF. December 1997.December 1997.

Economic Effects of Management Changes for Kenai River Late-Run SockeyeEconomic Effects of Management Changes for Kenai River Late-Run Sockeye Executive Summary.    PDF. Executive Summary.    PDF. January 1996. Based on report of the same title. By multiple authors.January 1996. Based on report of the same title. By multiple authors.

What's the Economic Value of Alaska's Healthy EcosystemsWhat's the Economic Value of Alaska's Healthy Ecosystems? Research Summary No. 61. PDF.    March 2001.By ? Research Summary No. 61. PDF.    March 2001.By Steve Colt. .Steve Colt. .

Economics of Sport Fishing in AlaskaEconomics of Sport Fishing in Alaska . . December 1999. Sharman Haley, Matthew Berman, Scott Goldsmith, . . December 1999. Sharman Haley, Matthew Berman, Scott Goldsmith, Alexandra Hill, and Hongjin KimAlexandra Hill, and Hongjin Kim

Economic Assessment of Bristol Bay Area National Wildlife RefugesEconomic Assessment of Bristol Bay Area National Wildlife Refuges : Alaska Peninsula/ Becharof,  Izembek, : Alaska Peninsula/ Becharof,  Izembek, Togiak. .December 1998. By Oliver Scott Goldsmith, Alexandra Hill  Togiak. .December 1998. By Oliver Scott Goldsmith, Alexandra Hill  

Gross State ProductGross State ProductISER's estimates of Alaska GSP since 1961.ISER's estimates of Alaska GSP since 1961.

Fisheries StudiesFisheries Studies  

Changing Alaska’s Salmon Harvesting System: what are the challengesChanging Alaska’s Salmon Harvesting System: what are the challenges ? ? November 2004. By Gunnar November 2004. By Gunnar Knapp and Fran Ulmer.Knapp and Fran Ulmer.

Projections of Future Bristol Bay Salmon PricesProjections of Future Bristol Bay Salmon Prices October 2004. Prepared for the Commercial Fisheries Entry October 2004. Prepared for the Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission by Gunnar Knapp. Commission by Gunnar Knapp.

Economic Considerations in Thinking About United States Marine AquacultureEconomic Considerations in Thinking About United States Marine Aquaculture August 2004.    Presentation August 2004.    Presentation by Gunnar Knapp to NOAA's Marine Fisheries Advisory Commission.by Gunnar Knapp to NOAA's Marine Fisheries Advisory Commission.

Recent Presentations on the Alaska Seafood IndustryRecent Presentations on the Alaska Seafood Industry Gunnar Knapp looks at challenges and  opportunities Gunnar Knapp looks at challenges and  opportunities facing Alaska's fisheries facing Alaska's fisheries

Change, Challenges, and Opportunities for Wild FisheriesChange, Challenges, and Opportunities for Wild Fisheries A presentation by Gunnar Knapp A presentation by Gunnar Knapp

Implications of Aquaculture for Wild FisheriesImplications of Aquaculture for Wild Fisheries : The Case of Alaska Wild Salmon August 2002.    Presentation : The Case of Alaska Wild Salmon August 2002.    Presentation by Gunnar Knapp.by Gunnar Knapp.

Effects of the 2002 Chignik CooperativeEffects of the 2002 Chignik Cooperative : A Survey of Chignik Salmon Permit Holders. June 2003. By  Gunnar : A Survey of Chignik Salmon Permit Holders. June 2003. By  Gunnar Knapp, Darla Siver, Patricia DeRoche, and Alexandra HillKnapp, Darla Siver, Patricia DeRoche, and Alexandra Hill

Understanding Alaska SummaryUnderstanding Alaska Summary : Effects of the Chignik Salmon Cooperative: What the Permit Holders Say. : Effects of the Chignik Salmon Cooperative: What the Permit Holders Say. June 2003. By Gunnar Knapp and Lexi Hill. June 2003. By Gunnar Knapp and Lexi Hill.

A Village Fish Processing Plant: Yes or NoA Village Fish Processing Plant: Yes or No? A Planning Handbook . May 2001. By Gunnar Knapp, Craig ? A Planning Handbook . May 2001. By Gunnar Knapp, Craig Wiese, Jude Henzler and PeterWiese, Jude Henzler and Peter Redmayne. Redmayne.         

Please visit:Please visit:

www.iser.uaa.alaska.eduwww.iser.uaa.alaska.edu

OrOr www.alaskaneconomy.uaa.alaska.eduwww.alaskaneconomy.uaa.alaska.edu

ANCHORAGE AT 90ANCHORAGE AT 90

Scott GoldsmithScott Goldsmith

Institute of Social and Economic ResearchInstitute of Social and Economic Research

University of Alaska AnchorageUniversity of Alaska Anchorage

Groups of Interest: Groups of Interest:

How Are They Doing?How Are They Doing?

Anchorage at 90

•Workers

•Women

•Families

•Other Households

•Poor

•Alaska Natives

•Other Minorities

•Children

•Young Adults

•Baby Boomers

•Seniors

•Cheechakos

•Sourdoughs

•Military

Gross Migration: Who Came and Gross Migration: Who Came and Went 1995 to 2000?Went 1995 to 2000?

Anchorage at 90

•Overall•35% more left

•Race•52% more Whites left•60% more Asians arrived

•Income•Movers had lower incomes

•Household Type•61% more Married Couples Left

•Education•More folks in the “middle” left

•Age•Baby boomers & their kids left

Recent Immigrants Are DifferentRecent Immigrants Are Different

Anchorage at 90

Racial Composition of Civilian Racial Composition of Civilian Population in 2000 and 10 Year Population in 2000 and 10 Year

GrowthGrowth

Anchorage at 90

Share Growth

•White 73.3% +4%•Ak Native 10% ???•Asian 5.2% +27%•Black 5.2% +20%•Mixed 5% na•Pacific Islands 1.3% 415%

•TOTAL 19%

Share of Population in 2000: Share of Population in 2000:

Under 10 & BBerUnder 10 & BBer

Anchorage at 90

•White 15% 46% •Asian 17% 40%•Black 19% 37%•Ak Native 25% 31%•Pacific Islands 27% 26%

Language as a Measure of Racial DiversityLanguage as a Measure of Racial Diversity

Anchorage at 90

Job Growth by Wage: Over 20 Years Job Growth by Wage: Over 20 Years

Anchorage at 90

Anchorage (real wage and salary income - wage and salary income >0; full time workers; ages 25-55)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

< 50

00

10,00

0

15,00

0

20,00

0

25,00

0

30,00

0

35,00

0

40,00

0

45,00

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50,00

0

55,00

0

60,00

0

65,00

0

70,00

0

75,00

0

80,00

0

85,00

0

90,00

0

95,00

0

100,0

00

105,0

00

110,0

00

115,0

00

120,0

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125,0

00

130,0

00

135,0

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140,0

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145,0

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150,0

00

1980 1990 2000

Earnings Trend: Native vs. Non-NativeEarnings Trend: Native vs. Non-Native

Anchorage at 90

Median HH Income in 2000Median HH Income in 2000

Anchorage at 90

•White $61,800•All HH $57,000•Asian $47,000•Black $43,000•Pacific Islander $36,600•Ak Native $36,000

•US Total $41,800

Who was in the Bottom 20% of Who was in the Bottom 20% of HHs in 2000?HHs in 2000?

Anchorage at 90

•Children being raised by single mothers 51%•People 65+ 24%•Full Time Workers 7%•Adults with College Educations 7%•Residents by Race

•White 12%•Asian 19%•Pacific Islander 21%•Ak Native 27%•Black 29%

Families and Other HouseholdsFamilies and Other Households

Anchorage at 90

Share of Households with Children Share of Households with Children in 2000in 2000

Anchorage at 90

•White 39%•All HH 42% •Asian 51%•Black 53%•Ak Native 48%•Pacific Islands 69%

Young AdultsYoung Adults

Median Earnings of High School Median Earnings of High School Dropouts as a % of College GraduatesDropouts as a % of College Graduates

Anchorage at 90

1980 1990 20000%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Anchorage at 90

Baby Boomers Rule in Anchorage!Baby Boomers Rule in Anchorage!

Seniors are Choosing to StaySeniors are Choosing to Stay

Anchorage at 90

Senior Living ArrangementsSenior Living Arrangements

Anchorage at 90

Median Income 2000: HH Headed by Median Income 2000: HH Headed by SeniorSenior

Anchorage at 90

•Anchorage Married Couples over 65 $67,700

•All Anchorage HH $57,000

•All Anchorage HH over 65 $45,000

•All US HH $41,800

•All US HH over 65 $26,600

•Anchorage Non-Family HH over 65 $21,600

Take Away MessageTake Away Message

Anchorage at 90

•Diversity is Increasing—And it is concentrated among younger residents

•People are still coming to Anchorage to look for opportunity—And finding it

•Economic opportunity means different things to different people

•Ak Natives remain the largest minority—With women finding more opportunities than men

•Non-wage income and high LFPR have offset declining wage rates—So household income remains high

•Our income distribution is more equitable than most places and the poverty rate lower—Thanks in part to the PFD

•Watch the Boomers—What they decide to do will impact us all

•We have matured to the point of having a suburb—And it looks different than we do

•Young adults today face a tougher job market than their parents

ANCHORAGE AT 90ANCHORAGE AT 90For additional information on this and other topics related to Alaska’s For additional information on this and other topics related to Alaska’s

economy:economy:

www.alaskaneconomy.uaa.alaska.eduwww.alaskaneconomy.uaa.alaska.edu

www.iser.uaa.alaska.eduwww.iser.uaa.alaska.edu

What are the Key What are the Key Considerations for the State?Considerations for the State?

• Whether it should invest in the pipeline Whether it should invest in the pipeline

• What it should do with its royalty gas What it should do with its royalty gas

• Whether it should change its tax systemWhether it should change its tax system

The Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline

The proposed Alaska natural gas pipeline to carry North Slope gas to market is one of the hottest topics in Alaska today. What route the pipeline will follow, how it will be financed, who will own it, and what role the state government might take in advancing the project had not yet been decided at the end of 2005. The issues surrounding the proposed pipeline are complex and hard for the average person to sort out.

In November 2005 the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) hosted a public forum on the gas pipeline, bringing together representatives of all the groups with current pipeline proposals, as well as the state government. All the groups made presentations, which we’re posting here as they become available. ISER itself prepared a short paper, summarizing some of the main public policy issues; that’s posted here as well.

We’ll also be posting additional papers on the subject and links to other sites with information relevant to gas pipeline issues. We want to emphasize that ISER itself does not advocate any pipeline proposal or any specific public policies related to the pipeline. Our goal is to provide information we hope helps Alaskans understand who is proposing what and what the public policy choices are for Alaska.

www.alaskaneconomy.uaa.alaska.edu

Forum Presentations Trans-Canada Presentation

State of Alaska Presentation

Alaska Gasline Port Authority

Presentation by Ken Konrad, BP

ISER Policy Briefs The Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline: What’s It All About?

Additional papers and articles The Past and Future of LNG in Alaska, by Arlon R. Tussing, November 2005

The Struggle for An Alaska Gas Pipeline: What Went Wrong? by Arlon R. Tussing, August, 1983

Anchorage Daily News Gasline Questions

Governor Murkowski’s Anchorage Daily News article

Anchorage Daily News LNG article

www.alaskaneconomy.uaa.alaska.edu

www.kidscount.alaska.edu

Upcoming ReportsUpcoming Reports

Low-Cost, Reliable Power:Low-Cost, Reliable Power: How Does Anchorage Compare? How Does Anchorage Compare? Steve Colt. Steve Colt.

Alaska Seniors: Status and IssuesAlaska Seniors: Status and Issues. Principal author Scott . Principal author Scott

Goldsmith. Goldsmith.

Alaska Construction Forecast 2006Alaska Construction Forecast 2006. Scott Goldsmith and Mary . Scott Goldsmith and Mary Killorin Killorin

Health Care Costs in AlaskaHealth Care Costs in Alaska Mark Foster Mark Foster

Understanding Alaska 2001-2005Understanding Alaska 2001-2005. A summary of ISER's special . A summary of ISER's special studies of economic development issues so far. studies of economic development issues so far.

www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu