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Analytikerpresentasjon 1. kvartal 2012
Hafslund ASA 4. mai 2012
Finn Bjørn Ruyter – CEO
First-quarter 2012 presentation to analysts
Hafslund ASA
4 May 2012
Finn Bjørn Ruyter, CEO
Highlights - first quarter 2012
s.2
• EBITDA: NOK 607 million, down 7 percent from Q1 2011.
• Sound underlying operations; profit affected by low power prices and mild temperatures.
• Hydropower generation: 10 percent above normal for the quarter.
• Hydropower sales price: NOK 0.27 per kWh, down 43 percent from Q1 2011.
• Network: power distribution business reported stable operations and normal profit.
• Power Sales: profit on a par with Q1 2011; modest customer-base growth.
• After-tax profit: NOK 214 million, including value changes or non-recurring items totaling
NOK 72 million.
EBITDA — first-quarter 2012
s.3
NOK million
60712142
238
129
87
EBITDAOtherNetwork MarketHydropower Heat
s.4
EBITDA down NOK 49 million from Q1 2011
271
2324
30
607
656
Q1 12OtherMarketsNetworkHeatProductionQ1 11
NOK million
EBITDA development — most recent three years
s.5
* 12-month rolling EBITDA vs. wholesale power prices
2 0402 085
2 492
2 655
2 7832 842
2 655
2 476
2 246
2 130
2 0071 9771 922
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
MNOK øre/kWh
Q4 1
1
32
Q3 1
1
36
Q2 1
1
40
Q1 1
1
39
Q4 1
0
39Q
3 1
035
Q2 1
0
32
Q1 1
0
30
Q4 0
9
27
Q3 0
9
30
Q2 0
9
34
Q1 0
9
31
Q1 1
2
29
Power prices - rolling 12 montn average **EBITDA *
• Power prices and Network business’ regulated income ceiling are key value drivers.
– Power price: NOK 0.29 per kWh for most
recent 12 months.
– NVE interest: 5.2% for most recent 12
months.
• EBITDA sensitivity:
– NOK 360 million per NOK 0.10 per kWh
change in wholesale power prices.
– NOK 130 million due to a 2 percentage
point change in the interest rate applied
by NVE to determine Network’s annual
income ceiling.
* * EBITDA: 12-month rolling EBITDA excluding profit effect of share investments and interest and currency derivatives (in NOK million).** Power price achieved by Hafslund’s Hydropower business — 12-month rolling average (in øre/kWh).
Interest-bearing debt: unchanged in Q1 2012
s.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
36.9
32.8
Q1 2012
9.3
Q2 2011
10.2
33.4
Q1 2011
10.1
NOK billion Equity ratio in %
Q4 2011
9.3
32.9
Q3 2011
9.3
32.6
Net interest-bearing debt and equity ratio Change in interest-bearing debt in 2012
Amounts in NOK million
Net interest-bearing debt 31.12.2011 (9 321)
EBITDA 607
Interest paid (180)
Tax paid (160)
Change in market value of financial instruments (50)
Change working capital (65)
Investments (168)
Net interest-bearing debt 31.12.2011 (9 337)
Working capital — seasonal variation
s.7
Working capital and power prices
Hafslund Power Sales — volume sold
-500
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
øre/kWhNOK million
dec.11sep.11jun.11mar.11dec.10sep.10jun.10mar.10 mar.12
Average power priceWorking capital
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
GWh
Q4 11
4 369
Q3 11
2 700
Q2 11
3 014
Q1 11
5 453
Q4 10
5 246
Q3 10
2 613
Q2 10
3 007
Q1 10
5 001
Q1 12
5 173
• Working capital varies greatly with power price levels, but is also affected by seasonal variations in demand.
• Positive effect on working capital in past three quarters attributable to:
– Low power prices
– Mild temperatures in past six months
reduced demand
– Transition to monthly invoicing.
Production
s.8
739
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
135
Q4 11
EBITDA rolling 12-monthEBITDA per quarter
Q3 11
211
Q2 11
308
Q1 11
134
Q4 10
252
Q3 10
303
Q2 10
240
Q1 10
178
Q1 12
87
EBITDA rolling 12-monthEBITDA
NOK million Q1 12 Q1 11 2011 2010
Operating revenue 165 182 1 024 1 220
EBITDA 87 116 769 1 001
Operating profit 75 105 724 958
Sales price (NOK/kWh) 27 47 32 39
Production volume (GWh) 601 371 3 135 3 041
Investments 1 24 57 161
• Low power prices and above-normal generation in the quarter.
• 47% drop in power prices compared with Q1 2011.
• Production: 10 percent above normal for the period.
• Maintenance work on two large generators.
• Projected Q2 2012 production: approximately 967 GWh, which is 3% above normal for the quarter.
Production and power price
s.9
211
174160
225
363
328
247 238220
232
350353
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
0,40
NOK/kWhGWh
DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMar
200
Feb
193
Jan
208
Forward priceSpot price2012Mean*
*Mean = 3,100 GWh based on 10-year average production adjusted for capacity improvements.
Hydropower – Glomma waterway flow
s.10
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
m3/sec.
decnovoctsepaugjuljunmayaprmarfebjan
Max. capacity utilization20112012
• Q1 2012 hydropower production: 10 percent above normal for the quarter.
• Projected Q2 2012 production: about 970 GWh (3 percent above normal for the reporting period) provided
normal reservoir levels and precipitation.
Heat
s.11
235
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
38
Q1 10
EBITDA rolling 12-monthEBITDA per quarter
160
129
Q4 11
61
Q3 11
10
Q2 11
35
Q1 11
152
Q4 10
106
Q3 10
10
Q2 10 Q1 12
EBITDA rolling 12-monthEBITDA
• Q1 2012 revenues and profit affected by lower power prices and mild temperatures.
• Reduced District Heating prices partly offset by lower energy costs resulting from factors that include a change in energy mix.
• Energy production: 729 GWh, down 8 percent.
• Investments were mainly NOK 35 million for increased renewable energy production capacity and NOK 10 million for customer tie-ins.
• New customer tie-ins: 19 GWh total energy outtake.
NOK million Q1 12 Q1 11 2011 2010
Operating revenue 394 557 1 120 1 259
EBITDA 129 152 259 314
Operating profit 89 115 102 163
Production volume (GWh) 729 791 1 829 2 028
Investments 51 92 441 485
District Heating — energy sources and unit cost
s.12 % electricity and renewable energy sources (rolling 12-mo
Waste & biomassmasse
Heat pumps
Bio-oil & bio-diesel
Electricity
Oil/natural gas
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
50
60
70
80
90
100
%GWh
Q4 11
479
Q3 11
144
Q2 11
207
Q1 11
716
Q1 12
652
• Gross contribution margin: NOK 161 million (Q1 2011: NOK 180 million); decline attributable to mild Q1 2012 temperatures.
• Proportion of waste as energy source increased by 43 percent — new incineration line at EGE.
• Proportion of oil as energy source: down 66 percent from Q1 2011.
• Proportion of electricity and renewable energy sources: 92 percent in past 12 months, up 8 percentage points in the quarter.
Energy prices (NOK/kWh) Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12
Waste & biofuel 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.18 0.19
Heat pumps 0.21 0.18 0.06 0.13 0.13
Biooil and biodiesel 0.68 0.62 0.00 0.61 0.60
Electricity 0.57 0.60 0.46 0.35 0.37
Oil/natural gas 0.55 0.71 0.45 0.59 0.52
Total production cost 0.46 0.30 0.24 0.27 0.30
District Heating incl. Distribution 0.80 0.72 0.60 0.60 0.61
Gross contribution margin 0.28 0.38 0.32 0.29 0.28
Heat — production profile
s.13
294
267
230
127
88
56 62 61
86
139
178
241
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
GWh
DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMar
178
Feb
265
Jan
287
20122011
Network
s.14
960
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
Q3 10
246
282
Q2 10
275
Q1 10
274
Q1 12
238
EBITDA per quarter EBITDA rolling 12-month
Q4 11
211
Q3 11
248
Q2 11
264
Q1 11
260
Q4 10
EBITDA rolling 12-monthEBITDA
NOK million Q1 12 Q1 11 2011 2010
Operating revenue 1 039 1 318 4 202 4 804
EBITDA 238 260 983 1 077
Operating profit 113 131 469 532
Investments 71 62 433 485
• 2012 income ceiling: NOK 2,309 million (2011: NOK 2,312 million).
• Operating revenues reduced as a consequence of re-invoicing of Statnett costs and so-called “under income.”
• Stable operations in the quarter. Outage penalty (KILE): NOK 11 million, down 22 percent from Q1 2011.
• Operating profit normal for the quarter, given the regulated income model currently in effect and planned maintenance activity levels.
Markets
s.15
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
EBITDA per quarter EBITDA rolling 12-month
Q1 12
293
142
Q4 11
41
Q3 11
46
Q2 11
65
Q1 11
141
Q4 10
106
Q3 10
70
Q2 10
207
Q1 10
77
EBITDA rolling 12-monthEBITDA
• Revenue decline mainly a result of lower wholesale power prices.
• Operating profit on a par with Q1 2011 despite lower margins and volumes.
• Operating profit figure includes NOK 33 million (Q1 2011: NOK -23 million) in value change on power derivatives.
• Power Sales’ after-tax profit: NOK 98 per customer (Q1 2011: NOK 100).
• Power Sales customers: 881 000 via wholly or partly owned companies, a modest increase in the quarter.
NOK million Q1 12 Q1 11 2011 2010
Operating revenues 2 012 3 116 7 275 8 289
EBITDA 142 141 293 460
Operating profit 137 137 277 442
Sold volume (GWh) 5 173 5 453 15 474 15 867
Other Activities
s.16
NOK million Q1 12 Q1 11 2011 2010
Support (21) (38) (133) (104)
BioWood Norway (23) (13) (80) (384)
Embriq (3) 2 (1) (49)
Financial derivatives, ass. comp. 47 16 (1 014) (905)
Operating profit other 0 (33) (1 228) (1 442)
BioWood — wood pellets production
• BioWood plant began pilot day-time operations in mid-February.
• Pellets: 7,050 metric tons (MT) produced and 4,688 MT sold in the quarter.
• 24/7 pilot production to begin in mid-April — temporary waiver of requirements governing nighttime noise.
• NOK -23 million profit figure reflects a NOK -12 million non-recurring item.
Group profit and loss account
s.17
NOK million Q1 12 Q1 11 ∆∆∆∆ 2011
Operating revenue 3 728 5 206 (1 478) 13 704
Cost og energy (2 573) (3 988) 1 414 (1 971)
Gross margin 1 154 1 218 (64) 11 733
Gain/loss financial items 57 (7) 64 (1 050)
Operating expenses (604) (556) (49) (9 538)
EBITDA 607 656 (48) 1 145
Depreciation (194) (201) 7 (803)
Operating profit 413 455 (41) 343
Interest expences (123) (121) (2) (495)
Market value change loan portfolio 16 25 (10) (89)
Financial expenses (108) (96) (12) (584)
Pre-tax profit 305 359 (53) (241)
Tax (91) (130) 39 (456)
Profit after tax 214 228 (14) (698)
Earnings per share (EPS) in NOK 1.10 1.17 (0.07) (3.58)
Group balance sheet
s.18
NOK million 31.03.2012 31.12.2011 ∆∆∆∆ 31.03.2011
Intangible assets 2 390 2 379 11 2 388
Fixed assets 18 573 18 632 -60 18 580
Financial assets 646 578 68 2 674
Accounts receivables and inventory 2 719 2 250 469 4 311
Cash and cash equivalents 1 057 870 187 1 456
Assets 25 398 24 710 687 29 408
Equity (incl. Min. int.) 8 338 8 131 207 10 849
Allocation for liabilities 3 214 3 205 9 3 103
Long-therm debt 8 822 9 047 -225 10 346
Other currently liabilities 2 198 1 802 396 1 903
Short-term debt 2 825 2 525 300 3 208
Equity and liabilities 25 398 24 710 687 29 408
Net interest-bearing debt 9 337 9 321 16 10 139
Equity ratio 33 % 33 % 0 % 37 %
s.19
We deliver the energy solutions and infrastructure of the future
Additional analytic information
Earnings per share (excluding REC)
s.21
8.12 1.98 1.10
2010 2011 2012
1,10
0,22
0,73
1,17
0,76
1,00
1,34
-0,14
5,02
By quarterNOK
Capital employed and return on capital employed
s.22
Distribution of capital employed
41%
27%
Market
9%
Network
Other
1%
District Heating
Hydropower
22%
2012 **
6,6%
2011
6,6%
2010 *
11,5%
9,0%
2,5%
Non-recurring items ROCE exclusive REC
* Return on capital employed, with and without profit effect from sale of Hafslund Fibernett and Q4 2010 write-down of BioWood Norway.
** Return on capital employed, most recent 12 months.
Return on capital employed (excl. REC)
Group cash flow statement
s.23
NOK million Q1 12 Q1 11 ∆∆∆∆ 2011
EBITDA 607 656 (49) 1 145
Interest paid (180) (190) 10 (540)
Tax paid (160) (98) (62) (490)
Market value changes and other liquidity adjustments (50) 22 (72) 1 138
Change in working capital (65) 923 (988) 2 260
Cash flow from operations 152 1 313 (1 161) 3 513
Investments in operations and expansion (171) (232) 61 (1 172)
Sale of operating assets and business activities 16 1 540 (1 524) 2 647
Cash flow, investment activities (155) 1 308 (1 463) 1 475
Cash flow for debt repayment and dividends (3) 2 621 (2 624) 4 988
Capital structure development
s.24
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
10
20
30
40
NOK billion Equity ratio in %
Q4 11
32.9
9.3
Q3 11
32.6
9.3
Q2 11
33.4
10.2
Q1 11
37.0
10.3
Q4 10
35.0
13.1
Q3 10
35.0
11.1
Q2 10
33.1
11.3
Q1 10
34.3
11.9
Q1 12
9.3
32.8
Net interest-bearing debt Equity ratio
Loans — portfolio data
s.25
Debt maturity profileNOK million
Loans at maturity, next 12 monthsNOK million
700
1 000
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
2021202020192018
1 059
2017
860
20162015
1 818
2014
1 284
2013
2 067
2012
1 400
2022
Other loansBond loansCertificate loans
800
494
300300300
0
400
800
DecNovOctSepAugJulJun Jan Feb MarMayApr
Other loansBond loansCertificate loan
Portfolio data
Q1 12 Q4 11 ∆∆∆∆
Bonds 51 % 52 % -1 %
Certificate loans 8 % 7 % 1 %
Other loans 41 % 41 % -1 %
Q1 12 Q4 11 ∆∆∆∆
Nominal value - market value
of loans-209 -225 16
Market value interest rate
swaps-25 -33 8
Average interest incl.
derivatives4.4 % 4.5 % -0.1 %
Proportion of loan portfolio
with fixed interest52 % 47 % 5 %
Loans at maturity next quarter
(NOK million)300 1 006 -706
Unused drawing facilities (NOK
million)4 400 4 400 0
Power and CO2 price development
s.26
EUR/MWh
EUR/tCO2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Q1 2009 Q3 2009 Q1 2010 Q3 2010 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012
FWD 2014 FWD 2013 CO2 2012 Nordic spotmarket
EUR
Kilde: www.nasdaqomxcommodities.com as19.04. 2012Nordic spotmarket prices are quartarly average while FWD14, FWD13 og CO2 prices are from last working day in each quarter.
Key figures
s.27
Group YTD 12 YTD 11
Capital matters
Total assets 25 398 29 408
Captial employed 21 081 24 488
Equity 8 338 10 849
Market capitalization 11 165 14 581
Equity ratio 33 % 37 %
Net interest-bearing debt 9 337 10 139
Profitability excl. REC
Profit after tax 214 228
Earnings per share (EPS) 1.10 1.17
Cash flow per share 0.78 6.73
Power Generation YTD 12 YTD 11
Capital employed 4 627 4 434
Sales price (NOK/kWh) 0.27 0.47
Production volume (GWh) 601 371
Network YTD 12 YTD 11
Capital employed 8 655 9 250
Annual Income ceiling 2 309 2 312
NVE-capital (regulatory) 6 054 6 130
Market YTD 12 YTD 11
Capital employed 1 422 2 709
- of this working capital 74 1 436
Total volume (GWh) 5 173 5 153
Heat YTD 12 YTD 11
Capital employed 5 493 5 412
Sales price District Heating (NOK/kWh) 0,61 0,80
Sales price Industry Heating (NOK/kWh) 0,27 0,27
Gross margin (NOK/kWh) 0,26 0,27
Sales volume (GWh) 729 791
Definitions
s.28
Navn Definisjon
Group
Capital employed Equity + Net interest-bearing debt + Net tax positions
Equity ratio (in%) (Equity incl. Minority interests / Total assets) X 100
Earnings per share Profit after tax / Average no. of shares outstanding
Cash flow per share Net cash from operations / Average no. of shares
Return on equity Result after tax / Average equity (incl. Minority interests)
Return on capital employed Operating profit / (Average equity + Net interest-bearing debt + Net tax positions)
Power generation
Mean production Average power generation over the past 10 years.
Shareholders as of 31 Mars 2012
s.29 Merk: Antall 1.000 aksjer
# ShareholderClass A shares
held
Class B shares
heldTotal Ownership
Share of
voting rights
Shareholding in thousands
1 City of Oslo 67 525 37 343 104 868 53.7 % 58.5 %
2 Fortum Forvaltning AS 37 853 28 706 66 559 34.1 % 32.8 %
3 Østfold Energi AS 5 201 4 5 205 2.7 % 4.5 %
4 Odin Norden 3 760 3 760 1.9 % 0.0 %
5 MP Pensjon PK 5 1 579 1 584 0.8 % 0.0 %
6 Folketrygdfonet 85 885 970 0.5 % 0.1 %
7 AS Herdebred 107 321 428 0.2 % 0.1 %
8 Hafslund ASA 397 397 0.2 % 0.0 %
9 New Alternatives Fund, Inc 328 328 0.2 % 0.3 %
10 Handelsbanken Helsinki 141 173 314 0.2 % 0.1 %
Total, 10 largest shareholders 111 245 73 168 184 413 94.5 % 96.4 %
Other shareholders 4 183 6 590 10 773 5.5 % 3.6 %
Total 115 428 79 758 195 186 100 % 100 %
Investor information
s.30
• Additional information is available from Hafslund’s website:– www.hafslund.no
– You can subscribe to Hafslund press releases
• Group CEO, Finn Bjørn Ruyter– [email protected]
– Tel: +47 911 38 199
• Financial Director and Investor Relations contact, Morten J. Hansen– [email protected]
– Tel: +47 908 28 577
www.hafslund.no
