An Overview of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Tropical

Mountain Ecosystems

About the Project

USAID/IUCN Implementing a resilience framework to support climate change adaptation in the Mt Elgon region of the Lake Victoria Basin project is implemented by IUCN’s Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Office (ESARO) and Uganda Country Office (UCO) through their Water and Wetlands programme. The project is implemented in collaboration with the African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science (ACCESS) based at the University of Nairobi and the Lake Victoria Basin Commission (LVBC) and Global Water Partnership Eastern Africa, with financial support from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The project’s goal is to enhance coordination and adaptation action between stakeholders using informed, timely, accurate and comprehensive information to promote societal and ecological resilience to adverse climate impacts within the Mt. Elgon Region, Lake Victoria Basin. The project aims to achieve this goal through the following four main objectives:

1. Improving scientific knowledge and demonstrating preparedness for a changing climate future in the Mt. Elgon region of the Lake Victoria Basin;

2. Demonstrating increased social and ecological resilience in hotspots of climate vulnerability using adaptation strategies which mainstream ecosystem services, economic diversification, adaptive management and learning in water and land management;

3. Influencing regional policy frameworks to better utilise systems approaches for building climate resilience and integrating these approaches across sectors and into poverty reduction strategies and national development plans; and

4. Enhancing learning at local to regional levels, through better access to information, networking, capacity building and leadership development

Under objective 1, ACCESS undertook various pieces of work or studies for and on behalf of IUCN and this report is a compilation of some of this work.

This publication is produced with the funding support from the American People through USAID.

An Overview of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Tropical

Mountain Ecosystems

Published by: African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science and IUCN Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Programme

Copyright: © 2014 African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science and IUCN Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Programme

Disclaimer: The designation of geographical entities in this book, and the presentation of the material, do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science or IUCN Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Programme concerning the legal status of any country, territory, or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science or IUCN Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Programme.

All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication for education or other non-commercial purposes is authorized without prior written permission from the copyright holder, provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of this publication for resale or other commercial purpose is prohibited without prior written permission of the copyright holders.

The colors, boundaries, denominations, and classifications in this report do not imply, on the part of United States Agency for International Development, the International Union for Conservation of Nature, the African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science or the Lake Victoria Basin Commission any judgment on the legal or other status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of any boundary.

Citation: ACCESS/IUCN (2014): An Overview of Climate Change and Adaptation in Tropical Mountain Ecosystems. Prepared by African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science (ACCESS). Authors: Daniel O. Olago, Eric O. Odada, Washington Ochola and Lydia Olaka, iii+11p.

Cover Photo: Community hands-on training on soil and water conservation measures in Kapsarur Parish, Suam Catchment in Bukwo District, Mt. Elgon in June 2014 (Credit: Calvin Odur)

Design & layout: Gordon Arara (IUCN Publications Unit, Nairobi)

Available From: AFRICAN COLLABORATIVE CENTRE FOR EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE (ACCESS) c/o College of Physical and Biological Sciences, University of Nairobi, Chiromo Campus, Riverside Drive, P.O. Box 30197-00100 Nairobi, Kenya Tel+254-020- 4447740 eodada@uonbi.ac.ke access@uonbi.ac.ke

and

INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE (IUCN) Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Office

P.O. Box 68200 - 00200 Nairobi, Kenya info.esaro@iucn.org

Table of Contents

1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 1

2. Climate Change in tropical mountain ecosystem and its implication to the mountain communities ........... 1

3. Ecosystem-Based Adaptation (EbA) Strategies ................................................................................................. 3

4. Issues to consider in enhancing adaptation ....................................................................................................... 6

5. Conclusion and Recommendations .................................................................................................................... 8

Acknowledgement..................................................................................................................................................... 9

References ................................................................................................................................................................. 9

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1. Introduction

The synthesized information presented in this publication was used to guide the identification and selection of the climate change adaptation actions to be piloted in the Mt. Elgon ecosystem under the RFCC project – USAID/IUCN Implementation of a Resilience Framework to support Climate Change Adaptation in Mt. Elgon Region of the Lake Victoria Basin.

This report is arranged as follows: the next section presents information on Climate Change in tropical mountain ecosystem and its implication to the mountain communities, followed by sections on ecosystem based adaptation strategies; issues to consider in enhancing adaptation; and ends with conclusion and recommendations.

2. Climate Change in tropical mountain ecosystem and its implication to the mountain communities

Mountains represent unique areas for the detection of climatic change and the assessment of climate-related impacts (Beniston, 2003). Recent research shows that climate change will be more pronounced in high-elevation mountain ranges, which are warming faster than adjacent lowlands (World Bank, 2008), and that the pace of climate zone shifts will be higher in such regions than in lowlands (Mahlstein et al., 2013). The mountain ecosystems in Africa appear to be undergoing significant observed changes that are likely due to complex climate-land interactions and the climate change (IPCC, 2007). Research suggests that at least some of the world’s forested ecosystems may already be experiencing climate change impacts

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and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited (Figure 1) (Allen et al., 2010).

Warming and drying trends on Mt. Kilimanjaro have increased fire impacts, which have caused a 400-m downward contraction of closed (cloud) forest, now replaced by an open, dry alpine system (Hemp, 2005). Conway (2009) suggests that the major change in hydrology on the mountain and its environs is not due to the glacier melt but to the dramatic shift, as a result of climate change, of the mountain’s vegetation zones. Conversely, land cover change has been found to have limited influence on glacier loss on Mt. Kilimanjaro (Mölg et al., 2012). Increased fre¬quency and intensity of fire has already been observed around the globe, e.g. the Bale Mountains in Ethiopia, the Blue Mountains of New South Wales in Australia, the Western Rocky Mountains, and the mountains on the fringes of the Mediterranean (Kohler and Maselli, 2009).

People living in mountain ecosystems in the developing world are particularly vulnerable to climate change as a result of their high dependence on natural resources for their livelihoods (Figure 2), consequently, they are highly exposed to the extreme climate events in addition to widespread poverty and marginalization (Macchi, 2011). Climate change directly erodes natural capital, and thus the resource base for human enterprise.

Many of the effects of the changes observed in climate variables are enhanced by human activities that directly impact the landscape and play a role alongside natural climate feedback mechanisms to modify local to regional climates and environments (Table 1). These include deforestation (increased surface temperatures, decreased precipitation; development and expansion of urban areas (heat island effects), and drainage of wetlands (increased local surface temperatures). With great land-use pressures in many mountain regions, including deforestation and heavy grazing combined with extreme rainfall, flashfloods and flooding will likely increase, and greater variability in water flow resulting in either too much water or too little water increases the vulnerability of mountain livelihoods (Kaltenborn et al., 2010). The tropical African climate is also favourable to most major vector-borne diseases, including: malaria, schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, trypanosomiasis, filariasis, leishmaniasis, plague, Rift Valley fever, yellow fever and tick-borne haemorrhagic fevers (Githeko et al., 2000). Thus, the continent has a high diversity of vector-species complexes that have the potential to redistribute themselves to new climate-driven habitats leading to new disease patterns (Githeko et al., 2000). This relates not only to human health as exemplified above, but also to the health of all other groups or classes of living organisms, both in the animal and plant kingdoms.

There is growing scientific evidence that many mountain regions have become increasingly disaster-prone in recent decades, and are more frequently affected than other environments by destructive natural proc¬esses including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, dam bursts or glacial lake out¬bursts, as well as avalanches and

Figure 1: Directional changes in mean precipitation and temperature may increase mortality rates for species populations

at single sites or regions (Allen et al., 2010).

landslides (Kohler and Maselli, 2009). Considerable loss of woodlands and forest cover due to deforestation and cultivation, particularly on steep concave slopes of the Mt. Elgon National Park in Uganda, has induced a series of shallow and deep landslides in the area during rainfall events (Mugagga et al., 2012). Globally, climate change is very likely to increase the pressure exerted by non-seismic hazards: casualties and damage due to hazards in moun¬tain regions will increase irrespective of global warming, especially where popula¬tions are growing and infrastructure is developed at exposed locations, but climate change will definitely increase risk since expected increases of heavy rainfall, heat waves, and glacier melt will amplify hazards in many mountains worldwide, and in areas where they have not been known in the past (Kohler and Maselli, 2009).

Each ecozone of a montane environment provides critical environmental services (Figure 2), and provides a resource base for mountain dwellers that may be impacted in several ways by climate change, altering their livelihoods and social amenities and structures (Table 2).

Despite their limited area, tropical alpine environments provide important environmental services on both local and global scales, and these include biodiversity conservation, carbon storage, and water supply for cities, agriculture and hydropower (Buytaert et al., 2011). They also tend to have well developed wetlands that help to improve groundwater recharge, sediment accretion and pollution removal (Buytaert et al., 2011). The impacts of climate change on land based resources, if negative, will result in communities continued reliance on already stressed resources, resulting

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Figure 2: Relationship between mountain ecological zones, ecosystem services and livelihood activities (the widths of the boxes convey relative importance of the ecosystem services in relation to the mountain zone).

WATER

• Receding glaciers

• More frequent, prolonged, intense, and extensive floods and droughts

• Heat waves

• Increased intensity of runoff

• Reduced or less reliable streamflow

• Warmer streams/rivers

• Reduced groundwater recharge and groundwater levels

• Increased water stress

BIODIVERSITY

• Changes to montane species/ecosystems (altered habitats, communities, growth, productivity, regeneration, phenology, biomass, carbon, invasive species)

• Disappearance or decline of species in the lowlands and at lower elevations due to a net movement of species upslope (‘lowland biotic attrition’)

• Extinction of species on mountaintops for which no escape routes exist

• Inability of species to shift into a newly suitable geographic range, often due to dispersal obstacles and/or insufficient dispersal capability

• Forest dieback during extended droughts

• Wildfire risk - altered patterns, frequency, severity and intensity

Table 1: Examples of climate change impacts and related environmental effects on mountains.

SOILS• Changes in soil properties

• Increased frequency and magnitude of landslides

• Soil compaction as a result of loss of forest via trucks, cattle or incident raindrops

• Increased soil erosion

HUMAN AND ECOSYSTEM HEALTH• Changes in the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases,

e.g. malaria

• Changes in air quality

• Increase in existing or new pests

• Increase in existing or new diseases

in a spiraling effect of the impacts on resource sustainability and livelihoods, thereby compromising their wellbeing and increasing poverty levels. In a study in eastern Uganda covering part of Mount Elgon, it was observed that over 90% of the households have attempted changing their farming operations in response to climate variability and extremes (Kansiime, 2012).

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3. Ecosystem-Based Adaptation (EbA) Strategies

Travers et al. (2012) note that healthy ecosystems and their services provide opportunities for sustainable economic prosperity in conjunction with the provision of defense against the negative effects of climate change and conversely, that degradation of ecosystems results in increased climate change vulnerability for the communities that live in these ecosystems as well as for the ecosystems themselves. Essentially, Ecosystem-Based Adaptation (EbA) addresses these crucial links between climate change, biodiversity, ecosystem services and sustainable resource management (Travers et al., 2012), as opposed to other approaches (Table 3).

The lack of work to consolidate the evidence-base for EbA has created uncertainty regarding its effectiveness and prevented the generation of clear questions on EbA for researchers and practitioners to address (Doswald et al., 2014). The confusion surrounding the meaning of EbA also hinders the integration of EbA into adaptation planning: some organizations still conceptualize EbA as the adaptation of ecosystems to climate change rather than the use of ecosystems for human adaptation to climate change (Doswald et al., 2014).

The common aims and related benefits and costs for EbA-relevant interventions, based on a rigorous assessment of the EbA evidence-base in the literature (Doswald et al., 2014), are shown in Figure 3 and Table 4 below.

Adaptation strategies in mountain systems (Table 5) must be formulated with the knowledge that climate baselines will be in a dynamic state of change. The preservation and enhancement of vegetation cover in natural, semi-

APPROACH

SOFT

HARD

EbA

CHARACTERISTICS• focus on informa¬tion, policy, capacity building and

institutional function

• encourage changes in behaviour to reduce potential losses from specific climate hazards

• enhance people’s overall resilience to a range of climate impacts

• use specific technologies and actions involving capi¬tal goods to reduce potential climate change impacts

• often include engineered, infrastructure-based interventions

• harness the capacity of nature to buffer human communities against the adverse impacts of climate change through the sustainable delivery of eco¬system services

• shares attributes of both soft and hard approaches

• often focused on specific ecosystem services with the poten-tial to reduce climate change exposures

• more flexible in the face of changing needs and uncertainty about the future

EXAMPLES• development of early warning systems for

droughts or floods

• insurance against extreme weather events for farmers

• education and capacity building in at-risk communities

• sea walls and levees to protect vulnerable coastlines,

• irrigation infrastructure to help farmers cope with intermittent or reduced water availability

• targeted management, conservation and restoration activities

Table 3: The three basic approaches to adaptation (from Jones et al., 2012).

RESULTANT IMPACTS/EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MOUNTAIN DWELLERS

• Less availability of water (potable)

• Damage to infrastructure

• Changes and damage to existing ecosystems resulting in disruption of livelihoods

• Reduction in tourism

• Reduced job opportunities

• Enhanced food insecurity (crop destruction, etc.)

• Water use conflicts

• Reduced value of ecosystem goods and services

• Increased injury to and loss of life for humans and animals including livestock

• Higher insurance premiums

• Erratic and reduced power supply from hydroelectric power plants

• Unsustainable land uses e.g. overgrazing, wetland drainage

• Upslope advance of agriculture

• Loss of cultural, religious sites

• Mental stress

• Migration

Table 2: Some implications of climate change for mountain dwellers.

natural, agricultural, forest, and agroforestry ecosystems is an essential factor in sustaining environmental health in mountains, in helping to avert natural hazards such as landslides through the upkeep of adequate vegetation cover, and in maintaining water quality (Beniston, 2003). It is important to recognise that landscapes and habitats will continue to change under global warming, and it

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should therefore be recognised that ecosystems that are protected are still going to change and will keep changing and at varying rates and times, and this fact will need to be considered when devising and implementing environmental protection measures (Graumlich and Francis, 2010). It includes a constant reorientation to what is being protected and how it will be protected through time (Graumlich and Francis, 2010). Research indicates, for example, that extinctions due to climate change will not be random and that species with more generalist ecological requirements will be better able to cope with, and adapt to, climatic changes (Isaac and Williams, 2007). Adaptation strategies are currently constrained by lack of site-specific long-term projections of potential climate impacts, hence the need to continuously improve on the scientific evidence base to help fine tune adaptation strategies. Since climate hazards are now clearly linked with issues such as food security, migration, and national security, linking climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction provides a framework for responding (McBean and Rodgers, 2010). Africa’s capacity to adapt depends critically on access to funding (Schaeffer et al., 2013). Climate change adaptation is still, however, in its early stages: many approaches are used, but there remains considerable scope to further develop a clear conceptual framework and set of guidelines necessary to understand and measure vulnerability, and develop feasible adaptation strategies needed to address climate change successfully (Pérez et al., 2010). The entry points for mainstreaming scenario information in adaptation planning depend on the country level technical and financial capacity, scale of the risk(s), as well as the timing and type(s) of adaptation being considered (Wilby et al., 2014).

BENEFITS

COSTS

SOCIAL

Improved and secure livelihoods; new or preserved recreation areas; social cohesion and community; empowerment; better quality land for food/cattle; better water security; and protection from damage and loss

Loss of land that could be used for other pursuits; effort required for the initiation and maintenance of EbA; and knowledge intensive

ECONOMIC

Damage costs prevented; new or improved income; profits; savings compared to alternative adaptation approaches; and income from subsidies

Costs for set up and maintenance; and opportunity costs

Table 4: Common social, environmental and economic costs and benefits of ecosystem-based approaches relevant for adaptation to climate change reported in the peer-reviewed and grey literature (Doswald et al, 2014).

ENVIRONMENTAL

Biodiversity conservation; carbon sequestration and mitigation benefits; land erosion and degradation prevention; habitat creation and restoration; and mitigation of micro- climatic variability

Loss of habitat for certain species; invasive species; and increasing pressure on natural resources

Figure 3: The aims of EbA-relevant1 interventions addressed in the articles reviewed (Doswald et al., 2014).

1 EbA interventions are meant to address long-term climate change in order to reduce the vulnerability of people to such change, whereas EbA-relevant interventions are undertaken to enable people to adapt to changed or variable climatic conditions, as well as to climate-related impacts (Doswald et al., 2014).

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LIVELIHOODS

• Diversification with less reliance on land based resources• Supporting income-generating activities and small-scale cottage industries such as production of dried fruits and

vegetables; bee-keeping; silk worm rearing and cocoon production; milk and wool production and processing; and crafts.• Improving access to markets• Adaptation skills enhancement• Training, education and awareness raising• Management of resource use conflicts• Collective management of resources• Strengthen ecotourism• Build small-scale infrastructure or live barriers to protect crops/infrastructure against floods, landslides etc.• Enhanced disease surveillance progammes

AGRICULTURE & FOOD SECURITY

• Irrigation

• Plant high yielding and drought resistant crop varieties

• Agroforestry

• Crop rotation

• Water use efficient technologies

• Information and early warning systems

• Cultivation of diversified native species

• Breeding of diversified native species

• Soil moisture retention methods

• Using gray water

WATER SUPPLY

• Construction of dams

• Managed aquifer recharge

• Diversion of water

• Treatment and recycling of wastewater

• Development of water allocation plans

• Rainwater harvesting

• Water retention terracing

• Infiltration ditches, small barrages, water mirrors (small lakes), and rustic canals

• Reconnecting stream reaches

LIVESTOCK & FISHERIES

• Intensive management of lowland pastures

• Production of livestock foodstuffs to reduce pressure on mountain pastures

• Improved grazing management practices

• Community-based regulation of grazing intensity and frequency

• Aquaculture

• Conservation of post-harvest fishery products

ENERGY

• Renewable resources - promote wind, solar and biogas energy

• Reduce fuel-wood use through improved stoves

• Energy efficient buildings

GENERAL

• Reduction of non-climate stresses/stressors

• Favour actions that are robust to uncertainty - “no regrets” actions

• Increase/improve education and awareness

• Early warning systems and communication strategies

• Skills enhancement for proposed adaptation activities, investment and training

Table 5: Common adaptation measures/interventions in mountain areas, includes adoption of proven traditional technologies.

FORESTS

• Reforestation/regeneration

• Implement fire management within and outside forest

• Forest rehabilitation with a mix of local tree varieties

• Selection of species for planting

• Maintenance or enhancement of genetic diversity

• Use of seed sources adapted to expected future conditions

• Maximize reproductive tree population sizes

• Minimize harvesting impacts through reduced impact logging

• Minimize forest fragmentation

• Pest management

ECOSYSTEMS & BIODIVERSITY

• Protect refugia and special ecosystem elements

• Set up refugia and migration corridors

• Increase and protection of riparian vegetation

• Restore river and stream channels to their natural morphologies

• Reduce disturbance on fragile mountain grasslands

• Focus conservation activities in areas identified as climate refugia and/or areas likely to be suitable future habitat

4. Issues to consider in enhancing adaptation

(i) Scientific Knowledge Gaps

Data is normally scarce in the tropical regions hence uncertainties about future climate change tend to be quite large. Mountains are generally poorly covered by low resolution models, hence heightening the uncertainty range with respect to future climate changes. More costly, higher resolution models (e.g. 50x50km) are needed, but even these are constrained where mountains rise steeply. Valuation of mountain ecosystem services is a challenge because of the biophysical characteristics of high altitude and slope as well as the large variation in temperature and moisture which results in a high degree of heterogeneity (IGES, ICIMOD, 2012). Different services are interlinked and highly interdependent (Ring et al., 2010). The data scarcity in tropical mountain environments requires the development of simple and robust decision support tools for ecosystem services management and conservation; conceptually simple methods are often preferable over complex models, as the latter have data requirements that are hard to satisfy (Buytaert et al., 2011). This view is also supported by Cross et al. (2012) who note that effective adaptation of management to climate change can rely on local knowledge of an ecosystem and does not necessarily require detailed projections of climate change or its effects (Cross et al., 2012). Another key knowledge gap of importance to policy, relating to performance measures, is the analysis of the timescales, and physical/ecological/socio-economic conditions under which EbA may or may not be successful (Doswald et al., 2010). It must be recognized, however, that measuring this ‘success’ will not be easy where ecosystems themselves are dynamic and do not provide a static baseline against which to measure change (Doswald et al., 2010). Routine monitoring in areas with low human impact is necessary for building up long-term data sets to monitor the effects of ongoing change, to validate remote sensing-based observations and to calculate geomorphological sensitivity, which is required for targeted management strategies (Knight and Harrison, 2012).

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(ii) Traditional Knowledge

Traditional knowledge about peoples’ environment including weather and climate suggests not only that knowledge passed down through generations is still used today but that it can complement scientific knowledge and potentially help to adapt to faster changes than would be associated with variability alone (Wolf and Moser, 2011). It is, therefore, important to incorporate the knowledge and experience of indigenous peoples when devising adaptation strategies. In the Himalayas, for example, it has been noted that there is very little literature on the impacts or the response of the communities, yet there is a wealth of information in the form of local knowledge of the indigenous communities based on their observations, perceptions and experiences over the years that can be effectively utilised to complement scientific data to improve climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies (Ingty and Bawa, 2012). This is generally the situation and experience of many researchers across the global tropics.

(iii) Inappropriate Technologies

In the selection of technologies, adaptation projects face the challenging task of balancing technologies that are beneficial under current climate conditions with those that might be most adaptive under future climate conditions, recognizing that while technologies for current climate conditions can build resilience to shocks and support adaptation, they often represent incremental advances, not transformational change (Biagini et al., 2014). Without sufficient scientific knowledge of future conditions, technologies can be ineffective, or even harmful, if they are not appropriate under a future climate (Biagini et al., 2014).

(iv) Context-Specific Information and its Adequacy

In many parts of Africa, demand for information and confidence often exceeds what climate science can realistically achieve (Conway, 2011), and this may apply to other regions, particularly mountain areas. Thus, adaptation strategies may be designed without adequate evidence-based information (e.g. lack of observation data for groundwater in Africa, cf. Taylor et al., 2013) and participatory methods. Other aspects that need to be considered in adaptation decisions include cost-efficiency, co-benefits, tradeoffs, and feasibility (Pramova et al., 2014). The effectiveness of ecosystem services in reducing vulnerability to climate is influenced by characteristics, such as topography, geology, soils, ecosystem diversity and structure, and climate; consequently, an EbA strategy that is effective in one region might not be in another (Prameva et al., 2012). Similarly, the vulnerability of communities to climate change and their responses to climate change impacts may be different, even though the environmental settings may be similar, as a result of differences in culture, traditions, socio-economy, and lifestyles. In some cases, it may be important to assess gender-differentiated responses.

(vi) Population Dynamics

Adaptation measures implemented today, however good and robust, are likely to fail in the future as a result of population growth and related dynamics. This therefore needs to be factored in. A study in the Rwenzori, for example, observed that a community’s initiative to plant trees was affected by land shortage and a growing population (KRC, 2012).

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(v) Stakeholders, Project Design & Participatory Scenarios

An evaluation of project performance of 18 adaptation projects that used both top-down and bottom-up approaches revealed that community stakeholder engagement in project design and implementation led to higher effectiveness, efficiency, equity, flexibility, legitimacy, sustainability, and replicability (Sherman and Ford, 2014). Scenario storylines have an important role to play when we have limited understanding of the causal relationships within a system that prevents quantification of these relationships in models (Rounsevell and Metzger, 2010). They need to be shaped in the context of available projected climate and impacts for the area under consideration. Thus, it is also necessary to evaluate the available scenario methods, their comparative strengths and weakness, infrastructure and capacity requirements (Wilby et al., 2014) . As a tool, scenario storylines are more useful the further into the future we explore as uncertainties also increase and predictions become unsound (Rounsevell and Metzger, 2010). Regional scenarios are often consistent with one another, even though the assumptions are limited by absolute knowledge uncertainties (Rounsevell and Metzger, 2010). Scenario-based exercises are, therefore, useful to help guide and develop adaptive strategies (Parson, 2008, Bryson et al., 2010).

(viii) Climate Change - Poverty Linkages

The climate change research community has produced detailed knowledge of why the poor can be expected to be more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, but much less is known about factors that promote and enhance resilience (Leichenko and Silva, 2014). Additional research on characteristics and conditions that allow poor communities and individuals to respond, recover and ’bounce forward’ from climate stresses and extreme events is an important area for further study (Leichenko and Silva, 2014). Further investigation of the potential effects of climate change on economic growth and poverty traps as well as options for aligning adaptation strategies and poverty reduction, is also needed (Leichenko and Silva, 2014).

(ix) Externalities

Externalities are clearly most apparent when dealing with water issues - upstream versus downstream. Often, the water demands of downstream dwellers are much higher than those of the mountain dwellers. Many mountains are water towers for lowland towns and cities, and in some cases it is these stakeholders who plan, build and manage the large scale upstream infrastructure, without the inputs of the mountain dwellers. For example, the Chagga families that live above 2,000m on Mt. Kilimanjaro are facing water shortages as a result of installation of water taps by industries that directly transfer water from altitude sources to a reservoir (Sebastien, 2010). Consequently, water is no longer free, many farms are not irrigated and canal committees, and an ancestral communal system for water management, structured by a complex social hierarchy, disappears (Sebastien, 2010). Watershed EbA should thus develop coordination mechanisms between water users and managers, as well as compensation mechanisms for distributing the costs of watershed management (Pramova et al., 2012).

(vii) Building Awareness and Skills

A broad disagreement was observed among respondents (from Africa, the Americas, Asia, and the Pacific) to a questionnaire when asked if enough practical guidance was available for enhancing the adaptive capacity of tropical production forests to climate change (Guariguata et al., 2012). Thus, the view that sustainable forest management may not need substantial modification from existing good practice in order to reduce the vulnerability of forests to climate change impacts (Guariguata et al., 2008; Innes et al., 2009; Noss, 2001; Spittlehouse, 2005) may need clearer articulation and effective dissemination (Guariguata et al., 2012). In the Rwenzori region, farmers still ignorantly engage in wide-scale tree felling to create farmland and fuel wood (KRC, 2012). In addition, a number of soil management technologies have been introduced in the region, including agro-forestry and mulching, but smallholder farmers and are still practicing rudimentary methods of farming and this is largely attributed to lack of knowledge on, or awareness of, climate change (its causes, effects, and how to adapt) (KRC, 2012).

(x) Institutional Capacities and Policies

Low institutional capacity constrains meaningful community engagement in project implementation, despite project emphasis on building institutional and community capacity (Sherman and Ford, 2014). Sherman and Ford’s (2014) review suggests that relying on external expertise to assist in project implementation can improve the adaptation performance, especially where institutional capacity is limited. It is important to note that relying on external knowledge and expertise does not preclude genuine participation from both institutions and community members (Sherman and Ford, 2014). In some cases, central and local governments have made some policy efforts to address the possible causes and impacts of climate change, and have put in place strategies, programmes and action plans to implement them. However, some regulations are constantly violated due to lack of enforcement.

(xi) Resources

Government structures responsible for implementing environment policies, including adaptation technologies, are under resourced and therefore unlikely to respond to the vagaries of climate change (KRC, 2012). As yet, there is no current regional institutional framework or financing arrangement in Africa to cope with region-specific climate change impacts where adaptation should involve wide-ranging socioeconomic issues and new approaches for investments (AMCEN, 2011). Adaptation programmes that are supported by external donors therefore need to seriously consider issues related to sustainability, particularly where the programme duration is not long enough to ensure that the implemented adaptation actions are supported to the point where they are firmly rooted and unlikely to be abandoned due to lack of resources.

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(xii) Maladaptation

The adoption of a systems and participatory approach, coupled with reliance on a robust evidence base, will help to avoid maladaptation. It is also important to consider both the benefits and demerits of specific adaptation strategies. For example, irrigation can increase the risk of malaria (Ghebreyesus et al., 1999) and schistosomiasis (Oliver et al., 1999) transmission (Githeko et al., 2000). In the Rwenzori, commercial pine and eucalyptus tree plantations have been proposed as a means of diversifying livelihoods, but these have been found to exhaust soil fertility that also threatens food security and degradation of wetlands (KRC, 2012). Adaptive management, i.e., increasing the effectiveness of management decisions by monitoring, learning from and fine-tuning management practices, will be even more critical during rapid climate change (Graumlich and Francis, 2010).

(xiii) Screening Criteria for Ecosystem Based Adaptation Actions

The following screening criteria can be used, in addition to others, to ensure that adaptation actions generate desire results:

1. Actions that respond to a specific or system-related climate change hazard(s) and anthropogenic consequences in an area;

2. Actions that are ecosystem-based and participatory;

3. Actions whose implementation are feasible and nature-based or take into account nature-based and built infrastructures;

4. Actions that promote/create opportunities for lesson learning to improve practices, enhance adaptation, have up-scaling potential and/or influence policy;

5. Actions which are sustainable in relation to the exit strategy (i.e. capacity building, involving government and partners, coordinated action by the partners);

6. Actions that take into consideration the available time and financial resources required to deliver tangible results;

7. Actions that are gender sensitive and emphasis improved resilience of the most vulnerable groups;

8. Actions that promote use of appropriate as well as traditional technologies – conservation agriculture; soil and water conservation measures; water enhancement; agro-forestry; high value crops/animals for sustainable alternative livelihood options; energy conservation, etc;

9. Actions with impact that positively contribute to, or at least do-no-harm to the ecological, economic and social assets;

10. Actions that add value to ongoing initiatives or processes in the project area;

11. Actions with measurable results that can be tracked under changing baseline conditions.

5. Conclusion and Recommendations

To effectively develop and implement adaptation and mitigation strategies local perceptions responses, as well as traditional systems, must be kept in mind (Ingty and Bawa, 2012). However, many practical EbA projects are embryonic and have thus not been evaluated against climate change, climatic variability, climate extremes and hazards as they are still in the process of implementation (Doswald et al., 2014). We are therefore learning by doing, and this situation underlies the need to implement, along with the adaptation measures, robust monitoring studies with suitable and preferably low cost indicators that can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of implemented adaptation actions.

Acknowledgements

IUCN and ACCESS wish to acknowledge USAID for providing financial resources to enable the compilation of this synthesize. We would also like to thank Mr. John Owino for the coordination as well as Mr. Gordon Arara for the design and layout of this publication.

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