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Our monthly survey of 1,000 Irish consumers about their spending and savings intentions, analysed by main bank, TV provider, electricity supplier and health insurer.
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1 Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing
October 2012 additional analysis by:
main bank, TV subscription, electricity provider, health insurer
© Amárach Research
2 Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out three years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
October 2012.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 7th to 14th October 2012 inclusive.
3 Economic Recovery Index
A Matter of Measurement
Sept’12: 46% Oct’12: 48%
Sept’12: 28% Oct’12: 28%
Sept’12: 23% Oct’12: 21%
Sept’12: 2% Oct’12: 3%
Sept’12: 1% Oct’12: 0%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
Our ERI Index weakened slightly in October 2012 on the previous month:
4 Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The ERI has weakened steadily since July – October’s index is below October last year,
though up on October 2010:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, October 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr'09
Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'10
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'11
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12
Feb Mar Apr'12
May June July Aug Sept Oct
5 Economic Recovery Index
Recovery Outlook 1
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, October 2012
6 Economic Recovery Index
Cautious Optimism: 1
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am optimistic in spite of the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, October 2012
October 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523
Strongly Agree 13% 12% 14% 16% 14% 13% 11% 11% 13% 13%
Slightly Agree 35% 36% 33% 36% 38% 32% 34% 34% 37% 32%
Neither/Nor 15% 13% 16% 16% 16% 13% 12% 16% 17% 13%
Slightly Disagree 20% 19% 20% 17% 17% 22% 23% 21% 19% 20%
Strongly Disagree 17% 18% 16% 12% 15% 20% 20% 18% 12% 21%
7 Economic Recovery Index
Cautious Optimism: 2
% of Irish adults – by main bank, TV service, electricity supplier and health insurer –
who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am optimistic in spite of the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, October 2012
October 2012 Total AIB BOI Ulster
Bank Sky UPC
Saor
view
Electric
Ireland
Bord
Gais Airtricity VHI
Quinn-
Liberty
Ireland
Aviva
Weighted Sample 1000 366 289 132 422 253 137 534 213 232 230 85 95
Strongly Agree 13% 13% 12% 15% 11% 13% 12% 13% 12% 13% 13% 15% 18%
Slightly Agree 35% 37% 36% 31% 37% 34% 38% 35% 39% 30% 41% 36% 34%
Neither/Nor 15% 13% 18% 14% 16% 13% 12% 16% 14% 14% 14% 11% 12%
Slightly Disagree 20% 18% 15% 26% 17% 22% 21% 19% 18% 24% 18% 19% 19%
Strongly Disagree 17% 18% 18% 14% 19% 16% 15% 17% 16% 18% 13% 18% 15%
8 Economic Recovery Index
Recovery Outlook 2
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, October 2012
9 Economic Recovery Index
Heads Down: 1
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, October 2012
October 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523
Strongly Agree 9% 11% 7% 6% 8% 10% 7% 12% 10% 8%
Slightly Agree 29% 28% 30% 31% 32% 24% 24% 33% 35% 24%
Neither/Nor 13% 14% 12% 13% 11% 15% 12% 14% 14% 11%
Slightly Disagree 23% 21% 24% 28% 28% 18% 24% 17% 20% 25%
Strongly Disagree 24% 24% 25% 18% 19% 33% 32% 23% 18% 30%
10 Economic Recovery Index
Heads Down: 2
% of Irish adults – by main bank, TV service, electricity supplier and health insurer –
who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, October 2012
October 2012 Total AIB BOI Ulster
Bank Sky UPC
Saor
view
Electric
Ireland
Bord
Gais Airtricity VHI
Quinn-
Liberty
Ireland
Aviva
Weighted Sample 1000 366 289 132 422 253 137 534 213 232 230 85 95
Strongly Agree 9% 8% 10% 10% 9% 10% 8% 12% 7% 5% 11% 17% 16%
Slightly Agree 29% 30% 32% 26% 26% 35% 25% 29% 30% 32% 41% 30% 29%
Neither/Nor 13% 12% 11% 11% 14% 11% 12% 13% 14% 11% 12% 16% 17%
Slightly Disagree 23% 24% 21% 25% 24% 22% 27% 22% 22% 23% 20% 20% 21%
Strongly Disagree 24% 24% 23% 28% 27% 20% 26% 23% 26% 28% 15% 18% 15%
11 Economic Recovery Index
Recovery Outlook 3
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, October 2012
12 Economic Recovery Index
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: October 2010, 2011, 2012 & October 2012
15% 14% 13% 16%
Oct'10 Oct'11 Sept'12 Oct'12
I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a
few months ago
63% 59% 62% 62%
Oct'10 Oct'11 Sept'12 Oct'12
Now is a good time to buy a house for those who want to
25% 22% 26% 25%
Oct'10 Oct'11 Sept'12 Oct'12
I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession
27% 23% 24% 25%
Oct'10 Oct'11 Sept'12 Oct'12
I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I need to
59% 54% 56% 56%
Oct'10 Oct'11 Sept'12 Oct'12
Paying off debts is my main financial priority
Impact on:
•Spending
•Saving
•Debt
•Borrowing
Financial Sentiment Indicators
Source: Amárach Research, October 2012
13 Economic Recovery Index
Spendthrift: 1
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, October 2012
October 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523
Strongly Agree 4% 5% 3% 6% 7% 3% 3% 2% 4% 4%
Slightly Agree 12% 14% 10% 15% 15% 12% 10% 10% 14% 10%
Neither/Nor 15% 17% 14% 16% 15% 12% 14% 19% 17% 14%
Slightly Disagree 27% 27% 28% 31% 27% 27% 22% 30% 29% 26%
Strongly Disagree 40% 35% 45% 33% 37% 44% 51% 39% 35% 45%
14 Economic Recovery Index
Spendthrift: 2
% of Irish adults – by main bank, TV service, electricity supplier and health insurer –
who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, October 2012
October 2012 Total AIB BOI Ulster
Bank Sky UPC
Saor
view
Electric
Ireland
Bord
Gais Airtricity VHI
Quinn-
Liberty
Ireland
Aviva
Weighted Sample 1000 366 289 132 422 253 137 534 213 232 230 85 95
Strongly Agree 4% 4% 5% 2% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 2% 3% 6% 6%
Slightly Agree 12% 12% 13% 11% 11% 14% 9% 13% 11% 12% 15% 20% 14%
Neither/Nor 15% 16% 14% 16% 14% 16% 14% 15% 12% 18% 17% 17% 21%
Slightly Disagree 27% 30% 25% 29% 26% 26% 29% 28% 28% 26% 33% 18% 24%
Strongly Disagree 40% 37% 42% 42% 44% 39% 43% 40% 43% 40% 31% 39% 34%
15 Economic Recovery Index
Rainy Day: 1
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, October 2012
October 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523
Strongly Agree 12% 12% 12% 20% 17% 10% 8% 6% 13% 11%
Slightly Agree 13% 13% 12% 15% 12% 13% 13% 12% 16% 11%
Neither/Nor 19% 20% 17% 24% 17% 15% 12% 22% 20% 17%
Slightly Disagree 20% 19% 20% 21% 19% 16% 19% 23% 20% 19%
Strongly Disagree 34% 32% 37% 16% 33% 44% 45% 34% 29% 39%
16 Economic Recovery Index
Rainy Day: 2
% of Irish adults – by main bank, TV service, electricity supplier and health insurer –
who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, October 2012
October 2012 Total AIB BOI Ulster
Bank Sky UPC
Saor
view
Electric
Ireland
Bord
Gais Airtricity VHI
Quinn-
Liberty
Ireland
Aviva
Weighted Sample 1000 366 289 132 422 253 137 534 213 232 230 85 95
Strongly Agree 12% 11% 14% 11% 11% 15% 11% 12% 13% 11% 13% 14% 15%
Slightly Agree 13% 11% 14% 15% 12% 17% 9% 13% 14% 11% 18% 12% 10%
Neither/Nor 19% 20% 20% 17% 16% 20% 19% 19% 18% 19% 21% 22% 27%
Slightly Disagree 20% 24% 18% 21% 20% 18% 24% 20% 19% 21% 21% 24% 19%
Strongly Disagree 34% 33% 31% 34% 40% 28% 35% 34% 35% 34% 26% 29% 28%
17 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2012
Source: Amárach Research, October 2012
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr
'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'10
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr'12
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
18 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2012
Source: Amárach Research, October 2012
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Ap
r '0
9
Ma
y
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
0
Ma
y
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
1
Ma
y
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Feb
Ma
r
Ap
r'1
2
Ma
y
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
19 Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods: 1
Source: Amárach Research, October 2012
October 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523
Enjoyment 53% 56% 51% 52% 46% 48% 48% 68% 57% 50%
Happiness 51% 49% 53% 59% 47% 43% 51% 55% 54% 49%
Stress 40% 38% 42% 50% 50% 50% 36% 21% 41% 39%
Worry 40% 37% 42% 51% 39% 47% 42% 26% 39% 40%
Anxiety 28% 27% 30% 36% 33% 30% 29% 17% 29% 27%
Boredom 26% 26% 26% 44% 32% 23% 22% 15% 26% 27%
Physical Pain 20% 18% 21% 16% 21% 22% 19% 19% 18% 21%
Sadness 19% 16% 23% 25% 19% 18% 18% 18% 16% 22%
Anger 13% 15% 11% 13% 17% 19% 11% 6% 12% 14%
Fear 9% 8% 11% 15% 11% 12% 7% 5% 8% 10%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: October 2012
20 Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods: 2
% of Irish adults – by main bank, TV service, electricity supplier and health insurer:
did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? Yes: October 2012
Source: Amárach Research, October 2012
October 2012 Total AIB BOI Ulster
Bank Sky UPC
Saor
view
Electric
Ireland
Bord
Gais Airtricity VHI
Quinn-
Liberty
Ireland
Aviva
1000 366 289 132 422 253 137 534 213 232 230 85 95
Enjoyment 53% 49% 56% 61% 53% 56% 53% 52% 54% 53% 54% 58% 54%
Happiness 51% 49% 53% 53% 48% 55% 50% 51% 52% 50% 54% 51% 54%
Stress 40% 42% 37% 34% 43% 41% 35% 38% 42% 43% 36% 36% 47%
Worry 40% 40% 38% 35% 40% 43% 39% 41% 36% 39% 37% 30% 35%
Anxiety 28% 33% 24% 28% 29% 29% 26% 29% 26% 29% 27% 24% 31%
Boredom 26% 27% 24% 26% 23% 28% 27% 29% 23% 22% 23% 23% 21%
Physical Pain 20% 22% 15% 18% 23% 18% 14% 19% 18% 21% 21% 25% 18%
Sadness 19% 22% 19% 18% 21% 20% 16% 20% 18% 20% 18% 19% 21%
Anger 13% 14% 10% 13% 15% 10% 10% 13% 12% 13% 13% 8% 11%
Fear 9% 11% 9% 9% 8% 10% 9% 11% 5% 10% 9% 6% 10%
21 Economic Recovery Index
Wait & See
October has seen some further deterioration in
expectations for Ireland’s economic recovery –
though the mood is better than a year ago.
This month we have continued our analysis of
consumer sentiment in terms of customer
categories for TV service providers, electricity
suppliers and health insurers – as before, there
are marked differences in mood by customer
base.
Overall, however, consumers appear to be
adopting a ‘wait and see’ attitude towards the
forthcoming Budget, which will put some
spending on hold.
For marketers, growing market share must be
the number one priority for 2013, with holding
onto existing customers a close second…
22 Economic Recovery Index
Let’s Get Visual
If you find Amárach’s Economic
Recovery Index useful (and we
know many of you do) then you
might be interested in our data
visualisation initiative with
Delphi Analytics.
We have partnered to create
an extraordinarily powerful
resource online – for free – to
enable marketers and others to
look at the historical trend in
the ERI going back to April
2009 by demographic group,
main bank etc.
Find out more here: http://delphianalytics.ie/visual-
analytics/economic-recovery-index/
Drivers & Drinking
About Amárach Research
We are an independent market research
agency, providing a full range of research
services to our Irish and international
clients. We specialise in turning information
into insight; and insight into foresight.
Our experienced team of directors and
executives manage online, face-to-face and
cati surveys; as well as qualitative research
including focus groups, in-depths and
ethnographic studies. We also offer a
unique field-only service to universities and
international agencies.
Amárach Research is proud to be:
Trends Report
Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to
bounce forward to success:
Mark Nolan Managing Director
or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive
or Gerard O’Neill Chairman
for a confidential discussion about your needs and to
explore how we can help you succeed through world
class market research.
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch