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Alternative Propulsion Technologies: What’s on the Horizon? Christie-Joy Brodrick, Ph.D Institute of Transportation Studies University of California-Davis The Transportation/Land Use/Environment Connection October 25, 2004

Alternative Propulsion Technologies: What’s on the Horizon? Christie-Joy Brodrick, Ph.D Institute of Transportation Studies University of California-Davis

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Page 1: Alternative Propulsion Technologies: What’s on the Horizon? Christie-Joy Brodrick, Ph.D Institute of Transportation Studies University of California-Davis

Alternative Propulsion Technologies: What’s on the Horizon?

Christie-Joy Brodrick, Ph.DInstitute of Transportation Studies

University of California-Davis

The Transportation/Land Use/Environment ConnectionOctober 25, 2004

Page 2: Alternative Propulsion Technologies: What’s on the Horizon? Christie-Joy Brodrick, Ph.D Institute of Transportation Studies University of California-Davis

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Presentation Outline

– Diesel engines

– Driving forces

– Multiple solutions for a diverse industry

– Alternative fuels and technologies

– Advanced diesel technologies

– Gasoline technologies

– Non-propulsion advances

Photo: American Trucking Associations

Page 3: Alternative Propulsion Technologies: What’s on the Horizon? Christie-Joy Brodrick, Ph.D Institute of Transportation Studies University of California-Davis

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Freight Movement Today = Diesel, Diesel, and More Diesel

– 94% of goods are shipped using diesel power

– 89% of commercial trucks are diesel powered

– Long-haul trucks are exclusively diesel powered

– Railroad’s 20,000 locomotives are nearly all diesel powered

– Ocean-going containerships are diesel powered

– Gasoline is used by smaller, local trucks

– There are a handful of alternative fuels/ technologies: CNG, LNG, biodiesel, hybrids

Photo: Caterpillar

Page 4: Alternative Propulsion Technologies: What’s on the Horizon? Christie-Joy Brodrick, Ph.D Institute of Transportation Studies University of California-Davis

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Forces for Change

Emissions regulations* • new engine standards• fuel standards• idling bans• CA TRU rules• SCAQMD diesel rules

250

450

650

850

1,050

1,250

Q1

90

Q1

91

Q1

92

Q1

93

Q1

94

Q1

95

Q1

96

Q1

97

Q1

98

Q1

99

Q1

00

Q1

01

Q1

02

Q1

03

$0.95

$1.05

$1.15

$1.25

$1.35

$1.45

$1.55

$1.65

Trucking Failures National Avg. Price of Diesel Fuel

Fuel price increases

American Trucking Associations

Cummins

Page 5: Alternative Propulsion Technologies: What’s on the Horizon? Christie-Joy Brodrick, Ph.D Institute of Transportation Studies University of California-Davis

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All Trucks Are Not Created Equal

• 115 different certified engine families (with as many as 7 models per family)• >135 different transmissions now in use • Eight weight classes• Diverse payloads, driving cycles, & VMT

Page 6: Alternative Propulsion Technologies: What’s on the Horizon? Christie-Joy Brodrick, Ph.D Institute of Transportation Studies University of California-Davis

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Alternative Fuels and Technologies

American Trucking Associations

Page 7: Alternative Propulsion Technologies: What’s on the Horizon? Christie-Joy Brodrick, Ph.D Institute of Transportation Studies University of California-Davis

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Hybrid PUDs

Photos: UPS & Eaton

HCCI?

UPS hydraulic hybrid

FedEx Express hybrid

Page 8: Alternative Propulsion Technologies: What’s on the Horizon? Christie-Joy Brodrick, Ph.D Institute of Transportation Studies University of California-Davis

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J. Paul Fayolle, Volvo Powertrain, DEER 2003

‘07 Technology Requirements

Page 9: Alternative Propulsion Technologies: What’s on the Horizon? Christie-Joy Brodrick, Ph.D Institute of Transportation Studies University of California-Davis

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Diesel Engine Technologies‘04– Cooled EGR and in-cylinder– ACERT

‘07– Cooled high EGR with DPF – ACERT with DPF– Low sulfur fuel regs

‘10– ACERT with catalyzed DPF?– SCR + catalyzed DPF– LNT + catalyzed DPF

Photo: American Trucking Associations

Page 10: Alternative Propulsion Technologies: What’s on the Horizon? Christie-Joy Brodrick, Ph.D Institute of Transportation Studies University of California-Davis

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‘07 Technology Comparison

Prof. Michael Schittler, DaimlerChrysler, DEER 2003

Page 11: Alternative Propulsion Technologies: What’s on the Horizon? Christie-Joy Brodrick, Ph.D Institute of Transportation Studies University of California-Davis

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Impacts

– Costs and more costs– Maintenance– OBD – Driver reactions– Mechanic reactions– Industry pre-buy– Move away from diesel?

Photo: Thomson Education Direct

Page 12: Alternative Propulsion Technologies: What’s on the Horizon? Christie-Joy Brodrick, Ph.D Institute of Transportation Studies University of California-Davis

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Fuel of the Future: Gasoline?!?

Thomas W. Ryan III, SwRI, DEER 2003

Page 13: Alternative Propulsion Technologies: What’s on the Horizon? Christie-Joy Brodrick, Ph.D Institute of Transportation Studies University of California-Davis

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Gasoline and CO2

Tim Johnson, Corning, DEER 2004

Page 14: Alternative Propulsion Technologies: What’s on the Horizon? Christie-Joy Brodrick, Ph.D Institute of Transportation Studies University of California-Davis

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Non-propulsion Changes

– Idling alternatives (costs, alt fuels, fuel cells,routing changes)

– TRU alternatives (costs, alt fuels?)

– Telematics(profitability, efficiency,fuel economy, routing changes)

– 42 Volt systems(efficiency, fuel economy)