ALIBRA Weekly Market Report - Hellenic Shipping News ...€¦ · ALIBRA Weekly Market Report May 17th, 2016 ... IKAN SUDIP 36 2008 9.5 AKIJ ... KEY BOUNDARY 83 2010 13.7 BW GROUP

Your five-year-old VLCC is worth just over $14m

less than it was worth in February – can we con-

vince you that this may not be such a bad thing?

The value of a five-year-old VLCC of 305,000 dwt

was assessed on Monday at just over $65.0m, ac-

cording to Baltic Exchange data. This figure is

$3.4m below the estimate made seven days pre-

viously.

Indeed, VLCC asset values seem to have fallen

off a cliff. On February 22, the Baltic estimated

the benchmark VLCC’s value at $79.3m, and its

value has slumped since then, with depreciation

gathering pace from mid-May. Why?

For answers, look at the secondhand market,

some 12 VLCC deals have been completed

since January 1, at an average value of $56m

per vessel, research from Deutsche Bank says. This

is 25% below last year’s average.

On June 23, Teekay Corp reportedly sold its five-

year-old Korean-built VLCC Shoshone Spirit

(314,000 dwt) to Pantheon Tankers for $62m. An-

other VLCC of the same age and build – Hanjin

Ras Tanura (318,000 dwt) – achieved $75m when

sold by Hanjin to Bahri in late February.

But Deutsche Bank said depressed asset values

are a good thing for the VLCC market because

they disincentivise new ordering. Indeed, there

have been orders for just five firm VLCCs this year

to date, compared to 39 in the same period last

year (excluding options and cancellations).

The current orderbook isn’t expected to have an

impact on fleet utilisation until the first half of

2017, which the bank said the low net fleet

growth in the interim could support an

“elongated crude tanker upcycle, which has

positive implications in the 2018/19 timeframe”.

ALIBRA Weekly Market Report

May 17th, 2016

Some key figures:

VLCCs: Don't stop believing

Some key figures: $84.75m 2016 YTD $96m 2015 YTD

2016 YTD: 7

2015 YTD: 41 Number of VLCC newbuildings

ordered (including options)

ALIBRA Weekly Market Report

01 July 2016

Highest price achieved for resale

contract for Korean-built VLCC for

delivery the same year

2016 YTD: 1 2015 YTD: 1

Number of VLCCs demolished

ALIBRA Weekly Market Report - 01 July 2016

Private and Confidential - ALIBRA Shipping Ltd. 2016 2

COMMENT

The fears of a downwards movement in oil

price due to Brexit have not materialised,

with Brent hitting 50 dollars/bbl earlier this

week. Wheat on the other hand had a

noticeable decline this week reaching

$426.

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

06/15 08/15 10/15 12/15 02/16 04/16 06/16

HOUSTON ROTTERDAM SINGAPORE FUJAIRAH

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$25

$35

$45

$55

$65

$75

06/15 08/15 10/15 12/15 02/16 04/16 06/16

CRUDE (WTI) CRUDE (BRENT) IRON ORE (PLATTS)

COAL (RB INDEX) WHEAT (CBT)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

06/15 08/15 10/15 12/15 02/16 04/16 06/16

GBP / USD EUR / USD USD / JPY

Bunker prices

COMMENT

Since last Friday's massive drop in sterling's

value, the GBP/USD exchange rate has

seen large fluctuations between the

1.31468 & 1.35188 levels and this morning

stands at 1.33162. Meanwhile, the euro to

pound rate has also stabilised at 1.11044

following attempts by the UK government

to soothe the Brexit-related panic.

COMMENT

IFO 380 & MGO prices still continue

moving upwards for all the main bun-

kering stations across the board. The

current demand and forecasts seem to

keep the rates high.

PORT 380 CST MGO

HOUSTON 247.0 483.5

ROTTERDAM 244.0 432.5

SINGAPORE 258.5 450.0

FUJAIRAH 258.5 526.0

COMMODITY PRICE LAST WEEK (+/-)

CRUDE (WTI) 48.32 0.19

CRUDE (BRENT) 49.50 -0.7

IRON ORE (PLATTS) 54.20 2.5

COAL (RB INDEX) 58.80 -2.8

WHEAT (CBT) 426.00 -32

CURRENCY PAIR PRICE

GBP / USD 1.33162

EUR / USD 1.11044

USD / JPY 102.568

USD / KRW 1145.49

Commodity prices

Currency prices



Dry bulk

SIZE

PERIOD

HANDY (32k dwt) 6,500 5,000 5,800 5,000 5,450 5,200

SUPRA (56k dwt) 7,100 5,700 5,950 6,000 5,550 5,100

ULTRA (62k dwt) 7,150 5,900 6,150 5,600 5,650 5,500

PANA/KMAX (76k-82k dwt) 7,200 6,000 6,100 5,500 6,500 6,200

CAPE (170k dwt) 9,100 9,100 8,500 8,500 8,800 8,800

6 MOS 1 YR 2 YR

* Arrows only indicate the movement compared to the past week hence not necessarily the market trends.

ATL PAC ATL PAC ATL PAC

SIZE THIS WEEK LAST WEEK CHANGE (+/-)

HANDYSIZE 342 322 20

SUPRAMAX 619 577 42

PANAMAX 662 569 93

CAPESIZE 996 897 99

BDI 660 596 64

BALTIC DRY INDEX

COMMENT

Short-term PANA rates have seen a surge this week, having reached their highest levels in

over a month.

The decrease in NATL tonnage supply and the increase in dry cargo movement between

the FEAST and AUS have been the two main causes behind this surge.

Supras’ average weighted TC rates jumped up by almost 5% this week to around $6,200/

day, when compared to a week ago, decreased tonnage in SEA and FE being the main

factor, even though UKC and MED volumes were low.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

06/15 08/15 10/15 12/15 02/16 04/16 06/16

Baltic Dry Index

HANDYSIZE SUPRAMAX PANAMAX CAPESIZE BDI

DRY TIME CHARTER ESTIMATES (pdpr)



0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16

6 Months Atlantic TC Rates ($/day)

HANDYSIZE SUPRAMAX PANAMAX CAPESIZE

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16

6 Months Paci fic TC Rates ($/day)


0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

06/15 08/15 10/15 12/15 02/16 04/16 06/16

2 Year Atlantic TC Rates ($/day)


0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16

2 Year Paci fic TC Rates ($/day)


0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

06/15 08/15 10/15 12/15 02/16 04/16 06/16

1 Year Paci fic TC Rates ($/day)


0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

06/15 08/15 10/15 12/15 02/16 04/16 06/16

1 Year Atlantic TC Rates ($/day)


VESSEL SIZE (DWT) BUILT PERIOD DELIVERY RATE ($/DAY) CHRTR

ORMONT 181 2015 6-10 MOS 10,000 CARGILL

ALPHA HOPE 181 2011 7-9 MOS 10,000 CARGILL

MYNIKA 84 2013 4-8 MOS DAHEJ 5,700 CNR

BW ACORN 82 2010 12/12 MOS 6,000/7,000 GLENCORE

CEMTEX CREATION 82 2013 4-8 MOS DALIAN 5,850 LOUIS DREYFUS

YANGTZE 8 64 2015 4-6 MOS CJK 7,000 PACIFIC BASIN

ORIENT LUKCY 57 2010 4-6 MOS SHANGHAI 5,750 CARGILL

HEROIC STRIKER 57 2010 4-6 MOS RIO HAINA 10,000 WESTERN BULK

NAVIOS ULYSSES 56 2007 5 MOS USG 10,900 BUNGE

PERIOD FIXTURES



THIS WEEK LAST WEEK CHANGE (+/-)

DIRTY 691 713 -22

CLEAN 464 442 22

BALTIC TANKER INDEX

CPP/DPP & Crude

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16

DIRTY CLEAN

SIZE

HANDY 14,250 14,750 15,500 14,500

MR IMO3 15,250 15,750 15,850 15,450

LR1 17,500 18,500 18,200 18,750

LR2 (115 dwt cpp & dpp) 23,000 22,750 22,000 24,000

AFRA (115dwt) 22,500 22,000 21,500 22,500

SUEZ 27,000 27,000 27,000 26,500

VLCC 38,500 37,500 36,000 35,500

* Arrows only indicate the movement compared to the past week hence not necessarily the market trends.

1 YR 2 YR 3 YR 5 YR

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000

1

2

3

5

PER

IOD

(Y

RS)

Term Structures

VLCC SUEZ AFRA LR2 LR1 MR HANDY

TANKER TIME CHARTER ESTIMATES (pdpr) NON—ECO TONNAGE



COMMENT

The effect of the Brexit is still uncertain. Brent oil dropped to a 7-week low on Monday but the

shock has since steadied with price standing at 48.39USD/bbl as of Wednesday.

Meanwhile the newly expanded Panama Canal is expected to ease US energy transport from

the US East Coast towards Asia, says Fitch.

Tanker sector still in cold state whilst everyone is waiting for a signal to happen.

Period VLCC rates are still moving downwards hovering at around $38,500/day this week.

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16

1 Year TC Rates ($/day)

HANDY MR LR1 LR2 AFRA SUEZ VLCC

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16



10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16



10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16



VESSEL SIZE (DWT) BUILT PERIOD RATE ($/DAY) CHRTR

UNITED EMBLEM 161 2010 1-3 MOS RNR ST SHIPPING

CAPTAIN PARIS 115 2014 1 YR 21,500 NAVIG8

UNITED GRACE 112 2010 1-3 MOS RNR ST SHIPPING

CS STEALTH 105 2006 6 MOS RNR VITOL

MISS BENEDETTA 51 2012 6 MOS 14,750 FRONTLINE

ZEFYROS 50 2013 1 + 1 YR 14,500 SCORPIO

JAG PADMA 48 2003 1 YR 17,000 HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM

PERIOD FIXTURES



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

CAPE PANA SUPRA HANDY

$ M

ILLI

ON

Dry S&P Estimates

0 yrs 5 yrs 10 yrs

Sale and Purchase

0

20

40

60

80

100

VLCC SUEZ AFRA LR1 MR

$ M

ILLI

ON

Tanker S&P Estimates

0 yrs 5 yrs 10 yrs

2013 2014 2015 2016

DRY 449 400 295 250

WET 476 420 310 280

DEMOLITION PRICES ($/ldt)

VESSEL DWT BUILT PRICE ($M) BUYER

SHOSHONE SPIRIT 320 2011 62.0 ALPHA

ALAM BISTARI 47 2001 12.3 MIDDLE EASTERN

BLS LIWA 47 2008 22.0 PVT

BLS RUWAIS 47 2008 22.0 PVT

DL SUNFLOWER 45 1998 8.5 TAIWANESE

IKAN SUDIP 36 2008 9.5 AKIJ

GREAT STAR 25 1991 3.1 PVT

AS OPHELIA 20 2006 19.3 GREEK

CRANE HARMONY 12 2009 12.0 PVT

GOLDEN WAVE 9 2002 8.2 CHINESE

WET S&P

VESSEL DWT BUILT PRICE ($M) BUYER

CAPE ALTHEA 179 2011 24.4 GREAT EASTERN SHIPPING

KEY BOUNDARY 83 2010 13.7 BW GROUP

MOLLY MANX 58 2010 10.7 GREEK

JIN RONG 50 2000 3.4 HONG KONG

QUINN J 35 2011 9.5 GREEK

ORIENTAL SAPPHIRE 17 2003 2.8 RUSSIAN

ORIENTAL VEGA 17 2007 3.8 RUSSIAN

MARINE DIAMOND 10 2005 3.7 PVT

DRY S&P



$4,500

$5,000

$5,500

$6,000

$6,500

$7,000

$7,500

$8,000

$8,500

6 MOS 12 MOS 18 MOS 24 MOS

DRY FFA

HANDY SUPRA PANA CAPE

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

1

MOS

2

MOS

3

MOS

12

MOS

WET FFA

TD3 TD7 TC2 TC6

FFAs

ALIBRA SHIPPING LIMITED

1st Floor, 35 Thurloe Street, South Kensington, SW7 2LQ

LONDON

Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7581 7766 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Fax: + 44 (0) 20 7581 7760 [email protected]

[email protected] [email protected]

HANDY SUPRA PANA CAPE

6 MOS 5,250 6,500 6,150 8,300

12 MOS 5,100 6,150 6,000 7,300

24 MOS 5,200 6,400 6,300 8,000

FFA DRY

TD3 TD7 TC2 TC6

1 MOS 24,850 19,400 7,050 9,650

2 MOS 23,800 19,300 7,350 9,950

3 MOS 23,700 19,200 7,000 9,750

12 MOS 26,450 24,850 7,550 11,200

WET FFA

DISCLAIMER

All the information disclosed in this report is given in good faith but without guarantee, based on the current market situat ion at the time of writing.

While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this report, ALIBRA Shipping Ltd. does not accept any liability whatsoever for any

errors, omissions or opinions contained within this report.

None of the information contained in this report constitutes or forms an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity.

This report is destined to the email recipient account only, and must not be passed on to any third parties whatsoever without the written consent

of ALIBRA Shipping Ltd. The information in this report may not be reproduced in any format without prior written approval from ALIBRA Shipping

Ltd.

mailto:[email protected]






Documents

ALIBRA Weekly Market Report - Hellenic Shipping News ...€¦ · ALIBRA Weekly Market Report May 17th, 2016 ... IKAN SUDIP 36 2008 9.5 AKIJ ... KEY BOUNDARY 83 2010 13.7 BW GROUP