Alaska Native Population ChangesAlaska Native Population Changes Workshop

Alaska Native Tribal Health ConsortiumAnchorage, Alaska

April 24, 2008p ,

Greg Williams

Alaska State DemographerAlaska State Demographer

Alaska State & Regional Population Trends for l k i & l l iAlaska Natives & Total Population

• This presentation will cover the following:This presentation will cover the following:

• Total and Native Population Growth

l / i i• Natural Increase/ Migration

• Out of State/In‐State Migration Trends

• Change in age and the life cycle

Alaska Native PopulationAlaska Native Population

• In 2000 the census introduced multi‐race categories.In 2000 the census introduced multi race categories. Alaska Native and American Indian “Alone” and “Alone and in Combination with some other race”.

• Before 2000, they census forced a choice of one of four race groups: White, Black or African American, American Indian or Alaska Native, and Asian & Pacific Islander.

Alaska Native PopulationAlaska Native Population

• The problem has been that other indicatorThe problem has been that other indicator data such as Vital Statistics have not yet moved to collect multi‐race datamoved to collect multi race data.

• Using fixed race numerators with “Alone” or “Alone or in Combination” denominators inAlone or in Combination denominators in rates will lower the incidence of the characteristic being studiedcharacteristic being studied.

Bridged EstimatesBridged Estimates

• For this reason until other multi‐race data isFor this reason, until other multi race data is available, we recommend Bridged Estimates.

• Bridged estimates are an average of “Alone” d “Al i C bi i ” d hand “Alone or in Combination” and are the

most comparable to the 1990 race definition.

Alaska Native PopulationAlaska Native Population

• In 2006 we estimated Alaska NativeIn 2006, we estimated Alaska Native Population as follows:

• Alaska Native or American Indian “Alone”• Alaska Native or American Indian Alone , 106,660 or 15.9%.

Al k N i A i I di “Al i• Alaska Native or American Indian “Alone or in Combination”, 131,002 or 18.4%.

• Bridged Series, 118,884 or 17.7%.

Population ChangePopulation Change

• What have been the trends in PopulationWhat have been the trends in Population change?

• Has there been growth or decline?• Has there been growth or decline?

• Has it been rapid or slow?

• What has accounted for the change?

• What has been the role of unique historical qevents or predictable trends?

Natural Increase or MigrationNatural Increase or Migration

• Demographic change is either the result ofDemographic change is either the result of Natural Increase, Migration which are effected by Cohort Life Cycle changeby Cohort Life Cycle change

• Natural Increase = (Births – Deaths)

N Mi i (I i i O i i )• Net Migration = (In‐migration – Out migration)

• life cycle change involves change in the number of persons of a given age experiencing a life cycle event (e.g., a first job)

Age & Life CycleAge & Life Cycle

• Some key life cycle events are:Some key life cycle events are:

• School attendance/ education

h ld i / Child• Household Formation/ Child Bearing/Dissolution

• Work/ Labor Force participation

• Experience of place (e.g., growing up in rural p p ( g , g g pAlaska)

Overall Alaska Population Trendsand Characteristics

• The following show Alaska’s growth sinceThe following show Alaska s growth since World War II and current distribution of Alaska’s populationAlaska s population.

Migration To/From the U.S.Migration To/From the U.S.• The largest flows to/from Alaska are for

Anchorage, Fairbanks, Matsu and Juneau.

• Note also that areas such as Ketchikan and Kodiak also have disproportionately high flows.

• The Army, Air Force and Coast Guard rotation contribute heavily to these flows.contribute heavily to these flows.

• The next slide shows the share of all migration to/from Alaskato/from Alaska.

Origin/Destination of Migrants to/from AlaskaOrigin/Destination of Migrants to/from Alaska

• Most flows to Alaska are to/from the WesternMost flows to Alaska are to/from the Western Region‐ In particular, Washington, California and OregonOregon.

• Counties outside the West that have large flows most often contain military bases or universitiesmost often contain military bases or universities.

• The most common migration everywhere is post‐d i i ll fi j bsecondary migration to college or first job or

movement to/from military bases.

Military and DependentsMilitary and Dependents

• Military and dependents make up about 8% of Alaska’s y p ppopulation in 2006; 10% of Anchorage, 22% of Fairbanks North Star Borough, 18% of Kodiak Island Borough, 8% of Denali and Southeast Fairbanks 5% in Ketchikan 4% in SitkaDenali and Southeast Fairbanks, 5% in Ketchikan, 4% in Sitka, 3% of Valdez‐Cordova, 2% Juneau and 1% in Aleutians West and Wrangell‐Petersburg.

• The military is absent from the remainder of the state.

• Statewide 19% of the population in their 20’s and 14% of the children under 5 are military or dependents Thesechildren under 5 are military or dependents. These proportions are higher in Fairbanks and Anchorage.

Household and Group QuartersHousehold and Group Quarters

• Most population lives in households and agesMost population lives in households and ages normally.

• Some population live in Group Quarters which• Some population live in Group Quarters which turn over constantly through migration.

G l i d• Group quarters population do not age normally, but retain the same age structure

i ( ll ili d fi hover time (e.g., college, military and fish processing workers)

Group QuartersGroup Quarters

Alaska’s Aging Population Over TimeAlaska s Aging Population Over Time

• The following moving gif show the change in Alaska’s g g g gpopulation by age and sex since 1980. This graph is called a population pyramid.

N t th l b f “b b b ” i i• Note the large number of “baby boomers” moving up in age and the small numbers in the “baby bust” cohorts born in the late 1970’s.

• Note also the “echo boom”, the children of the baby boomers who are just completing secondary education.

Th ill b f ll d b d li i ll h• These will be followed by declining enrollments as the children of the “Baby Bust” go through the educational system.

• Note also that the children become more racially diverse.

Population Change by Age

To see moving gif go to http://almis.labor.state.ak.us/?PAGEID=67&SUBID=115

Total and Native Regional Trends

Anchorage/ Matsu RegionAnchorage/ Matsu Region

Change since 2000Change since 2000

• Total Population and Components of ChangeTotal Population and Components of Change are shown for each region.

• Population pyramids for the total population• Population pyramids for the total population and the Native population are also shown.

F h h i d h• For each the most current estimate and the census population are shown.

• In addition the expected native population is shown for each area.

Native Population ChangeNative Population Change

• Note the increase Native population in bothNote the increase Native population in both Anchorage and Mat‐Su at all ages under 60

• Note in particular the large increase in young• Note in particular the large increase in young Native in their 20’s.

Th A h h b h i• The Anchorage area has been the main recipient of migration from all parts of rural Al kAlaska.

10.2% Native

10.5%Native

8.9%Native

Gulf Coast RegionGulf Coast Region

Native Population ChangeNative Population Change• Overall there has not been a substantial change in

h N i l i f hi ithe Native population of this region.

• In Kenai, there has been a substantial increase in N ti i th i l 20’ iblyoung Native men in their early 20’s, possibly

associated with AVTEC.

• In Kodiak there is out migration in the early 20’s and• In Kodiak, there is out‐migration in the early 20 s and children under 5, and some older Natives

• In Valdez‐ Cordova out‐migration seems limited• In Valdez‐ Cordova out‐migration seems limited primarily to 20‐24 and children under 5.

11.9%Native

9.8%Native

16.6%Native

16.1%Native

Interior RegionInterior Region

Native Population ChangeNative Population Change

• Overall, the total population of the Interior has been relatively , p p ystable, but this hides substantial movement within the region.

• Fairbanks North Star Borough shows in‐migration of Native l ti d 60 ith th ti f 25 34population under 60 with the exception of 25‐34.

• Southeast Fairbanks and Denali Borough have small somewhat unpredictable Native populations.p p p

• Yukon‐Koyukuk on the other hand is experiencing large out migration at every age under about 55. The interior villages

i l l l i d l d ll hild Allare particularly loosing young adults and small children. All school age populations are showing loss. Fairbanks is the primary recipient of this migration.

13.6%Native

10.1%Native

14.1%Native

8.6%Native

67.0%Native

Northern RegionNorthern Region

Native Population ChangeNative Population Change

• The Northern Region is also experiencing loss ofThe Northern Region is also experiencing loss of Native population under 55. Out‐migration is most noticeable between 20 and 40.

• In Nome the largest out migration are persons 20‐49.

• In North Slope borough Native out‐migration is p g goccurring at all ages under 65.

• In the Northwest Arctic borough our miration is occuring at all ages from 20‐60.

75.4%Native

74.9%Native

70.3%Native

80.8%Native

Southeast RegionSoutheast Region

Native Population ChangeNative Population Change• There have been a relatively small out‐migration of Native

households from Southeast under 40 including children.

• Juneau has lost in the 30‐34 year old age group and children 5‐14. Juneau has had Native in‐migrants 40‐65. Juneau is to some degree the recipient of migrants from other parts ofsome degree the recipient of migrants from other parts of Southeast.

• Prince of Wales, Skagway‐Hoonah‐Angoon, Yakutat and Wrangell‐Petersburg all are loosing Native Families at almost all ages under 50 and Yakutat at all ages except the old.

• Ketchikan has losses of Native families 30 39 and children 5• Ketchikan has losses of Native families 30‐39 and children 5‐14.

• Haines has small numbers but is loosing young adults and Sitka is relatively stable with the exception of out‐migration of 20‐24 year olds.

19.9%Native

13.7%Native

15.3%Native

17.6%Native

41.4%Native

22.4%Native

34.5%Native

18.1%Native

40.7%Native

Southwest RegionSouthwest Region

Adak base closure

Native Population ChangeNative Population Change• Southwest has Native out‐migration between 20 and 55 and some males

10‐19. The primary loss ages are 20‐39.

• The Native population is this region has varied migration patterns.

• Bethel losses in the 20‐54 range, but this is not reflected in children under 19.

• Wade Hampton’s losses are primarily among those 20‐34. Both have very large cohorts of school age children.

• Lake & Peninsula borough has major losses at almost every ageLake & Peninsula borough has major losses at almost every age, particularly ages 40‐55, 20‐24 and all school age children/

• Dillingham’s out‐migration is mostly among young families 20‐30 and young childrenyoung children.

• Aleutians West and Bristol Bay have Native out‐migration at almost every age under 60 including children.

• Aleutians East has losses 50 74 20 24 and small children• Aleutians East has losses 50‐74, 20‐24 and small children.

70.3%Native

36.7%Native

18.4%Native

82.3%Native

43.0%Native

71.2%Native

69.4%Native

91.2%Native

ConclusionsConclusions

• Alaska’s Native Population is growing relative to the general p g g gpopulation because of higher fertility and an older White “baby boomer” population.

R l t b ti i ti i b t ti l d i• Rural to urban native migration is substantial and growing, particularly among young adults. In some parts of rural Alaska, there is an increasing threat of community decline.

• While Fairbanks and Juneau receive some of this migration regionally, Anchorage/Matsu is the main recipient.

N i Eld f h d l h i• Native Elders for the most part do not leave their communities. This suggests the need for community based care.

Web DataWeb Data

Current and historical demographic data can beCurrent and historical demographic data can be found on our web site.

http://almis.labor.state.ak.us/

Source: Alaska Department of Labor & Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section, Demographics Unit

For more information contact:f

Greg Williams, Ph.D., Alaska State DemographerAlaska Department of Labor &p

Workforce DevelopmentResearch & Analysis Sectiony

P.O. Box 115501Juneau, AK 99811-5501

Phone: 907.465.6029E il illi @ l k

Source: Alaska Department of Labor & Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section, Demographics Unit

Email: gregory.williams@alaska.gov