Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 7, 145-146 (1988)

Book Review

AIR QUALITY AND RESOURCE DEVELOP- MENT. A RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE HUNTER REGION IN AUSTRALIA by Jakeman, A. J . and Simpson, R. W., CRES Monograph No. 16, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.

Few readers of this journal, I suspect, will be familiar with the problems of modelling and forecasting the behaviour of environmental systems.

Seen from a distance, the popular image of an environmental system’s model might well be the early ‘world dynamics’ models of Forrester, first published nearly two decades ago (Forrester, 1971; also Meadows et al, 1972). In their time, For- rester’s work and its derivatives focused much critical, fruitful debate on the importance of the environmental consequences of technological and economic progress. Behind the scenes they did more: they also focused much critical, fruitful debate on the nature of forecasting the behaviour of such global, environmental/economic systems (Thissen, 1978).

More recently, and equally of momentous, global importance, has been the accident at Cher- nobyl. The transport and dispersion of the radio- active isotopes from that release can be simulated rather accurately across Europe (ApSimon and Wilson, 1986); and doubtless (although one hopes it will never be necessary) the forecasting of future release trajectories and deposition characteristics will have been much improved as a result.

Beneath these grander examples of environmen- tal forecasting lies the vast majority of more hum- ble research in which we are all engaged. In the late 1960s and early 1970s there was a rather na’ive asumption that environmental modelling and forecasting would automatically make environ- mental decision-making more timely, relevant, and effective. Nowadays, we are more realistic. We know that providing solid analysis to assist in mak- ing choices among.policy alternatives requires a lit- tle more than jotting down and solving the odd dif- ferential equation or two.

@ 1988 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The present book by Jakeman and Simpson is an example of good, solid analysis of environmental issues. According to the authors, active develop- ment of the black coal resources in the Hunter Region of Australia has been a strategy of the New South Wales Government for almost a decade. Part of the government’s objective has been to ease high unemployment and arrest the decline of industrial activity within the state and region by mining coal to attract energy-intensive industries. The Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies at the Australian National University, with which Jakeman and Simpson are associated, was asked in 1982 to assess the future impacts of the govern- ment’s policy on mining, in particular in terms of its effects on air quality.

This text is the product of that air quality assess- ment. It is a workmanlike affair; it has neither the youthful idealism of two decades ago, nor the tren- chant, polemical style of articles designed to alert the public and influence politicians. There is not a lot of forecasting in the book, at least not of the variety based on time-series or differential-equation models. Forecasting as such is largely restricted to what the authors call a ‘statistical modelling ap- proach’. By this they mean an approach in which the experimental observations are first used to iden- tify an appropriate frequency distribution, this model then being used to predict (extrapolate) an expected maximum air pollutant concentration and the number of times an air quality standard is likely to be exceeded.

In fact the book has a tendency to suppress the details of modelling and forecasting, relegating them to Appendices, and even there re-directing the reader to articles published elsewhere. There is nothing wrong with this, because I imagine the book was intended for a decision-making audience (or at least their support staff), but it will not satisfy the curiosity of the specialist.

The book’s greatest asset is also, in my opinion, a cause of difficulty. The authors have brought together an enormous wealth of statistical evidence on air quality, legislation, and public health as a function of air quality. The book will therefore be an excellent reference point for anyone undertaking

146 Journal of Forecasting VoI. 7, Iss. No. 2

similar case studies. However, this does not make for easy reading; I found myself bogged down in tables and figures of seemingly endless informa- tion. The net result is that I would have two impor- tant reservations in recommending this text:

What will the reader learn of the risk assess- ment approach described in the first Section of the book? The welter of data that follows in the subsequent applications Sections may well obscure the methodological lessons of this specific case study. What have the authors learned from the ap- plication of the approach to this specific problem? Every good case study has something to contribute to general prin- ciples, and I for one would have ap- preciated the authors’ retrospective obser- vations on this.

(i)

(ii)

REFERENCES

ApSimon, H. M. and Wilson, J. J . N., ‘Tracking the cloud from Chernobyl’, New Scientist,

Forrester, J . W . , World Dynamics, Cambridge, Massachusetts: Wright-Allen Press 1971.

Meadows, D. H., Meadows, L., Randers, J. and Behrens, W. W. 111, The Limits to Growth, Lon- don: Pan Books 1972.

Thissen, W., ‘Investigations into the World 3 model: lessons for understanding complicated models’, ZEEE Transactions Systems, Man and Cybernetics, SMC-8(3) (1978), 183-193.

17 July (1986) 43-45.

BRUCE BECK Department of Civil Engineering

Imperial College, London S W7 2BU