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Agricultural trade and poverty:An agenda for debateThom Achterbosch - Meeting ‘Rethinking agriculture in development’ - Atlantic Hotel Kijkduin - 11 October 2006
Agricultural Trade Policies and DevelopmentResearch project
Goal, contribute to…• Improved insight in links of WTO Doha & farm policies to
poverty & development• Public debate ‘North’, capacity building ‘South’
Features• Funded by Ministry of LNV: research program BO Cluster
International • 2-year program (2005-06)
Trade liberalisationIssues for poverty and development
Mixed results of open trade policies in past Reform package
• Trade and investment• Domestic reform• Adjustment
Livelihoods approach
Agricultural trade liberalisationAre we using the right tools, perspectives?
Global patterns of protection and farm support
• Global economic analysis
Small global and national benefits from a WTO deal, losses in Africa
• Within countries: winners and losers
We ask1. Are the models in touch with economic reality?2. What effects on family farms, rural workers, urban poor?3. Do trade positions reflect interests of the poor?
Endogenous price fluctuations
Spatial concentration
Market powerDynamic disequilibrium
Strategic control of material flows
Linkage effects
Endogenous growth
Poverty traps
1. Complications for model-based analysis
2. WTO agriculture deal: too much for the poor or way too little
Too much? losses for agricultural importers• Food imports dearer for African importers, cotton exports
grow• Farm labour demand for the poorest in Latin America• Reduced prices for manufactures
Way too little?• Price levels discourage developing country agriculture?• Benign link with foreign investment, supermarkets, rural
income growth?• Effects of increased import competition on growth?
3. Trade positions may oppose interests of the poor
Positions of developing countries under WTO Doha prone to interest articulation
• Possible counterforces for economic adjustment
Agriculture important for understanding of policy positions
• Pro-liberalisation group (G20) • Pro-protection group (G33)
Conclusions
Are the models in touch with economic reality?
Adjust and apply global economic models
What effects on family farms, rural workers, urban poor?
Analyse earnings on and off the farm Long term effects uncertain
Do trade positions reflect interests of the poor?
Trade interests of commercial farms best articulated
Mixed evidence on pro-poor
To be continued in the sessionsThank you
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