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AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED
MARCH 2013
AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED
EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALLEARNINGS CONFERENCE CALLFIRST QUARTER – 2013 MARCH 27, 2013
CAUTION REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTSThe forward looking information is provided as of March 27, 2013. Certain information presented in these remarks and in this presentation that is not historical factual information may constitute forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws Actual results could differ materially from a conclusion forecast or projection contained in suchof securities laws. Actual results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection contained in such forward-looking information. Forward-looking information may relate to our future outlook and anticipated events or results and may include statements about AGF Management Limited ("AGF") or the investment funds it manages (the "Funds"), including business operations, strategy and expected financial performance and condition. Forward-looking statements include statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or include words such as ‘expects,’ ‘anticipates,’ ‘intends,’ ‘plans,’ ‘believes,’ or negative versions thereof and similar expressions or future or conditional verbs such as ‘may,’ ‘will,’ ‘should,’ ‘would,’ or ‘could.’ In addition, any statement thatmay be made concerning future financial performance (including revenues, earnings or growth rates), ongoing business t t i t d ibl f t ti t i l f d l ki t t t
y g p ( g g g ) g gstrategies or prospects, and possible future action on our part, is also a forward-looking statement.
Forward-looking statements are based on certain material factors and assumptions, including expected growth, results of operations, business prospects, business performance and opportunities. While we consider these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and projections about future events and are inherently subject to, among other things, risks, uncertainties and assumptions about our operations, economic factors and the financial services industry generally They are not guarantees of future performance and actual events and results could differservices industry generally. They are not guarantees of future performance, and actual events and results could differ materially from those expressed or implied by forward-looking statements made by us due to, but not limited to, important risk factors such as level of assets under our management, volume of sales and redemptions of our investment products, performance of our investment funds and of our investment managers and advisors, competitive fee levels for investment management products and administration, and competitive dealer compensation levels and cost efficiency in our investment management operations, as well as interest and foreign exchange rates, taxation, changes in government regulations, unexpected judicial or regulatory proceedings, and our ability to complete strategic transactions and integrate acquisitions. We caution that the foregoing list is not exhaustive. The reader is cautioned to
id th d th f t f ll d t l d li f d l ki t t t Oth thg q g g
consider these and other factors carefully and not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Other than specifically required by applicable laws, we are under no obligation (and expressly disclaim any such obligation) to update or alter the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For a more complete discussion of the risk factors that may impact actual results, please refer to AGF’s most recent financial statements and MD&A and, for the Funds, to each Fund’s most recent prospectus and MRFP, as applicable, all available on www.sedar.com.
22
CONFERENCE CALL PARTICIPANTSCONFERENCE CALL PARTICIPANTS
• Blake C. Goldring, M.S.M., CFA, Chairman Blake C. Goldring, M.S.M., CFA, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
• Robert J. Bogart, Executive Vice-President & Chief Financial Officer
3
• Highlights of the 1st Quarter
TODAY’S DISCUSSION
• Highlights of the 1 Quarter
• Business Updates
– Investment ManagementInvestment Management
– Retail Business
– Institutional Business
• Financial Results
• Capital & Liquidity
• Priorities Exiting Q1 2013
4
Q1 2013 HIGHLIGHTSQ1-2013 HIGHLIGHTS
Ind str gross flo s ere strong and reflected increased acti it in eq ities
• AUM was flat over the quarter at $39B
Industry gross flows were strong and reflected increased activity in equities
• Gross flows of $1.3B in Q1-13 as compared to $1.4B a year ago
• Investment performance weakened slightly over the quarter
Fi d I t ti t l d i t l• Fixed Income category continues to lead in net sales
• Institutional business experienced outflows
• EPS of $0.17; Free cash flow remains strong$ ; g
• Board confirmed $0.27 dividend
• CRA proposed assessment notice
5
INVESTMENT PERFORMANCEINVESTMENT PERFORMANCE
AGF funds gave back some performance in Q1-13 – overall trend is moving in the right direction as this remains our #1 priority
Y t j t
1-yr Performance (% of Funds Above Median)
3 P f (% f F d Ab M di )• Year-over-year trajectory on a 1- and 3-year basis are positive – performance fell off slightly in Q1-13.
39%40%
50%
60% 3-yr Performance (% of Funds Above Median)
• Goal: 50% AUM in top two quartiles by end of 2013 for 1-year performance.
23%
38%
20%
30%
40%
• Key categories and flagship funds continue to perform.
17%
0%
10%
y 12
h 12
il 12
y 12
e 12
y 12 t 1
2
r 12
r 12
r 12
r 12
y 13
y 13
6
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
Apr
i
May
June
July
Aug
us
Sep
tem
be
Oct
obe
Nov
embe
Dec
embe
r
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
RETAIL BUSINESS REVIEWRETAIL BUSINESS REVIEW
We expect the gap between gross sales and redemptions to lessen throughout 2013
Gross Sales
We expect the gap between gross sales and redemptions to lessen throughout 2013 – performance of funds will be a critical component
• Gross sales - 2.6% of AUM in 2013 vs 2.4% in 2012• New product offerings are showing strength• Stronger sales push into IIROC and bank channelsg• Marketing and brand awareness campaign launched
RedemptionsRedemptions• Redemptions still remain high – need to close the gap
• Emerging Market redemptions in-line with industry and more stable relative to 2012
7
INSTITUTIONAL BUSINESS REVIEW & PIPELINEINSTITUTIONAL BUSINESS REVIEW & PIPELINE
Three large redemptions in February offset improving gross flows; we expect f h ddi i l fl i Q2 h b “b ifurther additional outflows in Q2 – however, we expect to be more “business as
usual” as we exit Q2 2013
• $470 million of gross flows in Q1
• Funnel opportunities are robust– RFP activity is up significantly– Consultants are beginning to place EM in active searchesConsultants are beginning to place EM in active searches
• Global Core and Global Dividend are in demand
• Q1 2013 net redemptions of $848 million
• Committed institutional pipeline currently negative at $231 million
8
FINANCIAL RESULTSFINANCIAL RESULTS
LTM Trending Results Quarter vs Quarter ($ millions, except per share amounts) Q2’12 Q3’12 Q4’12 Q1’13 Q1’13 Q1’12 Change
Revenue 133 5 119 8 125 0 122 5 122 5 132 0 (7 2%)Revenue 133.5 119.8 125.0 122.5 122.5 132.0 (7.2%)
SG&A 47.0 49.8 41.3 44.1 44.1 43.2 2.1%
EBITDA 50.3 36.3 50.0 45.3 45.3 52.5 (13.7%)
EBITDA Margin 37.7% 30.3% 40.0% 37.0% 37.0% 39.8% (7.1%)
ing
Ope
ratio
ns
ons
EBITDA (adjusted) 50.3 42.2 49.2 45.3 45.3 52.5 (13.7%)
EBITDA Margin (adjusted) 37.7% 35.2% 39.4% 37.0% 37.0% 39.8% (7.1%)
Free Cash Flow 33.2 17.6 22.2 28.2 28.2 31.3 (10.2%)
Con
tinu
Con
tinui
ng O
pera
tio
Net Income 23.8 (13.3) 15.7 15.6 15.6 17.3 (9.8%)
EPS Diluted 0.25 (0.14) 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 (5.6%)
EPS Diluted (adjusted) 0.25 0.17 0.20 0.17 0.17 0.18 (5.6%)Con
solid
ated
O
pera
tions
C
9
REVENUE & EBITDA
80 0150
132 0 133 5 65 0
70.0
75.0
80.0
135
140
145
150Revenue EBITDA EBITDA (Adjusted)
132.0 133.5
119.8
125.0122.5
50.052.5
50.350 0
55.0
60.0
65.0
120
125
130
135
TDA
$ m
illio
ns)
venu
e $
mill
ions
)
36 3
42.2 49.245.3
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
105
110
115
120
(EB
IT
(Rev
EBITDA Margin 39 8% 37 7% 30 3% 40 0% 37 0%
(1)36.3
30.0100Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13
1010
EBITDA Margin 39.8% 37.7% 30.3% 40.0% 37.0% Adj. EBITDA - - 35.2% 39.4% -
(1) Q3-12 EBITDA adjusted for $5.9m of one-time items related to restructuring(2) Q4-12 EBITDA adjusted for reversal of $0.8m of restructuring cost accrual
FINANCIAL RESULTS – BPS DETAIL
A shift to more retail AUM mix drove revenue rate higher; reductions in fixed cost
(bps of average AUM) Q1-13 Q1-12 TTM Q1-13
A shift to more retail AUM mix drove revenue rate higher; reductions in fixed cost base partially offset impact of lower AUM levels.
Average AUM ($ billions) 39.6 46.5 42.3
Average Retail 20.1 22.7 20.9
A I tit ti l d HNW 19 5 23 8 21 4Average Institutional and HNW 19.5 23.8 21.4
Revenue (bps) 126 115 120
Less:
Trailer Fees (bps) 32 30 31
SG&A (bps)(1)(2) 47 39 46
EBITDA (b )(2) 47 46 43EBITDA (bps)(2) 47 46 43
(1) Includes investment advisory fees. (2) Adjusted to exclude one-time expenses. 11
FREE CASH FLOW
AGF’s payout ratio will benefit from increased cash flow resulting from strongerAGF s payout ratio will benefit from increased cash flow resulting from stronger equity markets and share buyback activity
106%
50
60
Free Cash Flow Dividend % of Free Cash Flow (Payout Ratio)
400 $356m
41.7 39.2
33.2 28.2
60% 65%
76%85%
30
40
50
($ m
illion
s)
22.2
10
20
0Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Balance Sheet Cash 12
12
FOCUS & PRIORITIES FOR 2013
As we move through 2013 we expect more stability in our operating businesses
Key Execution Priorities
As we move through 2013 we expect more stability in our operating businesses relative to 2012 and expect market gains to drive improving profitability
Key Execution Priorities• Track for 50% of funds above median by end of 2013• Fall launch of innovative product• Expect Q2 2013 gross and net sales to improve relative to 2012Expect Q2 2013 gross and net sales to improve relative to 2012• Expect Institutional flows to be positive run-rate exiting 2013• Selective share repurchases throughout 2013• Maintain dividend
13
QUESTIONS