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AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED MARCH 2013 AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL FIRST QUARTER – 2013 MARCH 27, 2013

AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED · AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED MARCH 2013 ... FINANCIAL RESULTS – BPS DETAIL ... AGF Q1 2013 Earnings Conference Call Author:

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Page 1: AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED · AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED MARCH 2013 ... FINANCIAL RESULTS – BPS DETAIL ... AGF Q1 2013 Earnings Conference Call Author:

AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED

MARCH 2013

AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED

EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALLEARNINGS CONFERENCE CALLFIRST QUARTER – 2013 MARCH 27, 2013

Page 2: AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED · AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED MARCH 2013 ... FINANCIAL RESULTS – BPS DETAIL ... AGF Q1 2013 Earnings Conference Call Author:

CAUTION REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTSThe forward looking information is provided as of March 27, 2013. Certain information presented in these remarks and in this presentation that is not historical factual information may constitute forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws Actual results could differ materially from a conclusion forecast or projection contained in suchof securities laws. Actual results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection contained in such forward-looking information. Forward-looking information may relate to our future outlook and anticipated events or results and may include statements about AGF Management Limited ("AGF") or the investment funds it manages (the "Funds"), including business operations, strategy and expected financial performance and condition. Forward-looking statements include statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or include words such as ‘expects,’ ‘anticipates,’ ‘intends,’ ‘plans,’ ‘believes,’ or negative versions thereof and similar expressions or future or conditional verbs such as ‘may,’ ‘will,’ ‘should,’ ‘would,’ or ‘could.’ In addition, any statement thatmay be made concerning future financial performance (including revenues, earnings or growth rates), ongoing business t t i t d ibl f t ti t i l f d l ki t t t

y g p ( g g g ) g gstrategies or prospects, and possible future action on our part, is also a forward-looking statement.

Forward-looking statements are based on certain material factors and assumptions, including expected growth, results of operations, business prospects, business performance and opportunities. While we consider these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and projections about future events and are inherently subject to, among other things, risks, uncertainties and assumptions about our operations, economic factors and the financial services industry generally They are not guarantees of future performance and actual events and results could differservices industry generally. They are not guarantees of future performance, and actual events and results could differ materially from those expressed or implied by forward-looking statements made by us due to, but not limited to, important risk factors such as level of assets under our management, volume of sales and redemptions of our investment products, performance of our investment funds and of our investment managers and advisors, competitive fee levels for investment management products and administration, and competitive dealer compensation levels and cost efficiency in our investment management operations, as well as interest and foreign exchange rates, taxation, changes in government regulations, unexpected judicial or regulatory proceedings, and our ability to complete strategic transactions and integrate acquisitions. We caution that the foregoing list is not exhaustive. The reader is cautioned to

id th d th f t f ll d t l d li f d l ki t t t Oth thg q g g

consider these and other factors carefully and not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Other than specifically required by applicable laws, we are under no obligation (and expressly disclaim any such obligation) to update or alter the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For a more complete discussion of the risk factors that may impact actual results, please refer to AGF’s most recent financial statements and MD&A and, for the Funds, to each Fund’s most recent prospectus and MRFP, as applicable, all available on www.sedar.com.

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Page 3: AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED · AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED MARCH 2013 ... FINANCIAL RESULTS – BPS DETAIL ... AGF Q1 2013 Earnings Conference Call Author:

CONFERENCE CALL PARTICIPANTSCONFERENCE CALL PARTICIPANTS

• Blake C. Goldring, M.S.M., CFA, Chairman Blake C. Goldring, M.S.M., CFA, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

• Robert J. Bogart, Executive Vice-President & Chief Financial Officer

3

Page 4: AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED · AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED MARCH 2013 ... FINANCIAL RESULTS – BPS DETAIL ... AGF Q1 2013 Earnings Conference Call Author:

• Highlights of the 1st Quarter

TODAY’S DISCUSSION

• Highlights of the 1 Quarter

• Business Updates

– Investment ManagementInvestment Management

– Retail Business

– Institutional Business

• Financial Results

• Capital & Liquidity

• Priorities Exiting Q1 2013

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Page 5: AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED · AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED MARCH 2013 ... FINANCIAL RESULTS – BPS DETAIL ... AGF Q1 2013 Earnings Conference Call Author:

Q1 2013 HIGHLIGHTSQ1-2013 HIGHLIGHTS

Ind str gross flo s ere strong and reflected increased acti it in eq ities

• AUM was flat over the quarter at $39B

Industry gross flows were strong and reflected increased activity in equities

• Gross flows of $1.3B in Q1-13 as compared to $1.4B a year ago

• Investment performance weakened slightly over the quarter

Fi d I t ti t l d i t l• Fixed Income category continues to lead in net sales

• Institutional business experienced outflows

• EPS of $0.17; Free cash flow remains strong$ ; g

• Board confirmed $0.27 dividend

• CRA proposed assessment notice

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Page 6: AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED · AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED MARCH 2013 ... FINANCIAL RESULTS – BPS DETAIL ... AGF Q1 2013 Earnings Conference Call Author:

INVESTMENT PERFORMANCEINVESTMENT PERFORMANCE

AGF funds gave back some performance in Q1-13 – overall trend is moving in the right direction as this remains our #1 priority

Y t j t

1-yr Performance (% of Funds Above Median)

3 P f (% f F d Ab M di )• Year-over-year trajectory on a 1- and 3-year basis are positive – performance fell off slightly in Q1-13.

39%40%

50%

60% 3-yr Performance (% of Funds Above Median)

• Goal: 50% AUM in top two quartiles by end of 2013 for 1-year performance.

23%

38%

20%

30%

40%

• Key categories and flagship funds continue to perform.

17%

0%

10%

y 12

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il 12

y 12

e 12

y 12 t 1

2

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r 12

r 12

y 13

y 13

6

Febr

uary

Mar

ch

Apr

i

May

June

July

Aug

us

Sep

tem

be

Oct

obe

Nov

embe

Dec

embe

r

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Page 7: AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED · AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED MARCH 2013 ... FINANCIAL RESULTS – BPS DETAIL ... AGF Q1 2013 Earnings Conference Call Author:

RETAIL BUSINESS REVIEWRETAIL BUSINESS REVIEW

We expect the gap between gross sales and redemptions to lessen throughout 2013

Gross Sales

We expect the gap between gross sales and redemptions to lessen throughout 2013 – performance of funds will be a critical component

• Gross sales - 2.6% of AUM in 2013 vs 2.4% in 2012• New product offerings are showing strength• Stronger sales push into IIROC and bank channelsg• Marketing and brand awareness campaign launched

RedemptionsRedemptions• Redemptions still remain high – need to close the gap

• Emerging Market redemptions in-line with industry and more stable relative to 2012

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Page 8: AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED · AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED MARCH 2013 ... FINANCIAL RESULTS – BPS DETAIL ... AGF Q1 2013 Earnings Conference Call Author:

INSTITUTIONAL BUSINESS REVIEW & PIPELINEINSTITUTIONAL BUSINESS REVIEW & PIPELINE

Three large redemptions in February offset improving gross flows; we expect f h ddi i l fl i Q2 h b “b ifurther additional outflows in Q2 – however, we expect to be more “business as

usual” as we exit Q2 2013

• $470 million of gross flows in Q1

• Funnel opportunities are robust– RFP activity is up significantly– Consultants are beginning to place EM in active searchesConsultants are beginning to place EM in active searches

• Global Core and Global Dividend are in demand

• Q1 2013 net redemptions of $848 million

• Committed institutional pipeline currently negative at $231 million

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Page 9: AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED · AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED MARCH 2013 ... FINANCIAL RESULTS – BPS DETAIL ... AGF Q1 2013 Earnings Conference Call Author:

FINANCIAL RESULTSFINANCIAL RESULTS

LTM Trending Results Quarter vs Quarter ($ millions, except per share amounts) Q2’12 Q3’12 Q4’12 Q1’13 Q1’13 Q1’12 Change

Revenue 133 5 119 8 125 0 122 5 122 5 132 0 (7 2%)Revenue 133.5 119.8 125.0 122.5 122.5 132.0 (7.2%)

SG&A 47.0 49.8 41.3 44.1 44.1 43.2 2.1%

EBITDA 50.3 36.3 50.0 45.3 45.3 52.5 (13.7%)

EBITDA Margin 37.7% 30.3% 40.0% 37.0% 37.0% 39.8% (7.1%)

ing

Ope

ratio

ns

ons

EBITDA (adjusted) 50.3 42.2 49.2 45.3 45.3 52.5 (13.7%)

EBITDA Margin (adjusted) 37.7% 35.2% 39.4% 37.0% 37.0% 39.8% (7.1%)

Free Cash Flow 33.2 17.6 22.2 28.2 28.2 31.3 (10.2%)

Con

tinu

Con

tinui

ng O

pera

tio

Net Income 23.8 (13.3) 15.7 15.6 15.6 17.3 (9.8%)

EPS Diluted 0.25 (0.14) 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 (5.6%)

EPS Diluted (adjusted) 0.25 0.17 0.20 0.17 0.17 0.18 (5.6%)Con

solid

ated

O

pera

tions

C

9

Page 10: AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED · AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED MARCH 2013 ... FINANCIAL RESULTS – BPS DETAIL ... AGF Q1 2013 Earnings Conference Call Author:

REVENUE & EBITDA

80 0150

132 0 133 5 65 0

70.0

75.0

80.0

135

140

145

150Revenue EBITDA EBITDA (Adjusted)

132.0 133.5

119.8

125.0122.5

50.052.5

50.350 0

55.0

60.0

65.0

120

125

130

135

TDA

$ m

illio

ns)

venu

e $

mill

ions

)

36 3

42.2 49.245.3

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

105

110

115

120

(EB

IT

(Rev

EBITDA Margin 39 8% 37 7% 30 3% 40 0% 37 0%

(1)36.3

30.0100Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13

1010

EBITDA Margin 39.8% 37.7% 30.3% 40.0% 37.0% Adj. EBITDA - - 35.2% 39.4% -

(1) Q3-12 EBITDA adjusted for $5.9m of one-time items related to restructuring(2) Q4-12 EBITDA adjusted for reversal of $0.8m of restructuring cost accrual

Page 11: AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED · AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED MARCH 2013 ... FINANCIAL RESULTS – BPS DETAIL ... AGF Q1 2013 Earnings Conference Call Author:

FINANCIAL RESULTS – BPS DETAIL

A shift to more retail AUM mix drove revenue rate higher; reductions in fixed cost

(bps of average AUM) Q1-13 Q1-12 TTM Q1-13

A shift to more retail AUM mix drove revenue rate higher; reductions in fixed cost base partially offset impact of lower AUM levels.

Average AUM ($ billions) 39.6 46.5 42.3

Average Retail 20.1 22.7 20.9

A I tit ti l d HNW 19 5 23 8 21 4Average Institutional and HNW 19.5 23.8 21.4

Revenue (bps) 126 115 120

Less:

Trailer Fees (bps) 32 30 31

SG&A (bps)(1)(2) 47 39 46

EBITDA (b )(2) 47 46 43EBITDA (bps)(2) 47 46 43

(1) Includes investment advisory fees. (2) Adjusted to exclude one-time expenses. 11

Page 12: AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED · AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED MARCH 2013 ... FINANCIAL RESULTS – BPS DETAIL ... AGF Q1 2013 Earnings Conference Call Author:

FREE CASH FLOW

AGF’s payout ratio will benefit from increased cash flow resulting from strongerAGF s payout ratio will benefit from increased cash flow resulting from stronger equity markets and share buyback activity

106%

50

60

Free Cash Flow Dividend % of Free Cash Flow (Payout Ratio)

400 $356m

41.7 39.2

33.2 28.2

60% 65%

76%85%

30

40

50

($ m

illion

s)

22.2

10

20

0Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Balance Sheet Cash 12

12

Page 13: AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED · AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED MARCH 2013 ... FINANCIAL RESULTS – BPS DETAIL ... AGF Q1 2013 Earnings Conference Call Author:

FOCUS & PRIORITIES FOR 2013

As we move through 2013 we expect more stability in our operating businesses

Key Execution Priorities

As we move through 2013 we expect more stability in our operating businesses relative to 2012 and expect market gains to drive improving profitability

Key Execution Priorities• Track for 50% of funds above median by end of 2013• Fall launch of innovative product• Expect Q2 2013 gross and net sales to improve relative to 2012Expect Q2 2013 gross and net sales to improve relative to 2012• Expect Institutional flows to be positive run-rate exiting 2013• Selective share repurchases throughout 2013• Maintain dividend

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Page 14: AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED · AGF MANAGEMENT LIMITED MARCH 2013 ... FINANCIAL RESULTS – BPS DETAIL ... AGF Q1 2013 Earnings Conference Call Author:

QUESTIONS