After 20 Years – and 10 Years More

Development of Global Aquaculture Seen from a

Danish Perspective

By Karl Iver Dahl-MadsenVicepresident of the Danish Academy

of Future ResearchTo FAME, June-05

Anybody Remember?

From February 1986 What did we (I) say

at that time? What really

happened? And what about the

next 10 years?

Development Program for Danish Aquaculture

What did FAO forecast

Global Produktion t/år

0

5.000.000

10.000.000

15.000.000

20.000.000

25.000.000

30.000.000

35.000.000

40.000.000

45.000.000

50.000.000

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

In 1984 FAO said 26 mio. tons/år in year 2000

FAO

Trout in Freshwater

Fresh Water Trout

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.000

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

t/yr

High Growth: 30.000

Median Growth: 24.000

Quote on Freshwater Farming

The basis for high growth is a dramatic improvement of the water treatment technology, which may hard to do, as well technically as economically.

Salt Water FarmingSalt Water Farming

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

t/yr

Median Growth: 17.000 (7.000 on land)

Low Growth: 4000; High Growth: 35.000

Quote on Cage Culture

For economic viability for a family farm a 50-70 tons/year capacity is needed!

Today more than >1000 tons/year

A loss of 12 tons N/100 tons fish produced

Now it is <4 tons N

Eel production

Eel Production

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1984 1989 1994 1999

t/yr

Median Growth: 3.500

High Growth: 6.000; Low Growth: 0

Quote on Eels

It is hardly likely that the market will limit production growth!

Oops, the Chinese started exporting cheap eels to Europe

Other Options

Goal Result

Cultured Mussels

15.000 <100

Seaweed 10.000 0

Warm Salt Water

3.000 <100

Quote on Seaweed

In Denmark there is an interest for culturing seaweed with the aim of harvesting nutrients back to land

Today: Catchcultures

And Prices…..

1984 InflationActual 2000

Seafarm 35 46 30Freshwater 15 24 14Eel 55 88 35

Sure… All food prices are steadily decreasing

Today’s Situation

Proactive Business Community

National Aquaculture Committees

Attitudes have been changed

What lies ahead?

The Global Framework Growth to 400 mio. tons/yr

– UN’s median population forecast: 10 billion people

– 7 times richer in 100 years

– And 40 kg per cap./yr Fishery will decline to

about 10 mio.tons/år

Fish per Capita

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1980 1990 2000

Kg

pe

r C

ap

.

The Future of Fisheries

WFD: High / Good Ecological Quality criteria can not be met

As it removes a high percentage of the fish existing production from the Sea

Can this continue?

Demand for FishNot IMPACT, but KIBCB: Karl Iver’s Best Crystal

Ball

050.000.000

100.000.000150.000.000200.000.000250.000.000300.000.000350.000.000400.000.000450.000.000500.000.000

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

To

ns/

Yea

r

Fish demand Fish Caught

Aquaculture Demand Aquaculture

Fisheries

Danish Scenarios

Morten Korch society

Business as usual

Growth Unlimited

Morten Korch Soceity

New government with a very green environmental minister

Allies itself with anti industrial food production NGO’s

Aquaculture will slowly and painfully disappear

Business as Usual

Stubborn fighting withdrawal from “green” NGO’s and politicised authorities

Cautious fish farmers: “We must not offend anyone”

Slow production increase Old and tired producers

retire? All is in the balance

Growth Unlimited The positive

political climate continues

Finance is attracted Young, smart and

energetic people wants to work in aquaculture

Full speed ahead Norway

Environmental EfficiencyAgriculture Ponds Seafarm

2000, after H. SchrøderSales value mio. kr 50.000 700 300Nitrogen Loss Tons 380.000 500 300N-Efficiency Mio. kr/tons 0,12 1,4 1

Why agriculture and not aquaculture: Equality before the law?

Production Type & Environment

agriculture ponds seafarm

Hits, Google 11/10-01 No. 20.200 1.510 402Nitrogen Loss Tons 380.000 500 300N-Efficiency Hits/ton 0,05 3,02 1,34

Seafarms: What did we miss?

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

To

ns/

year

Saltvand Seatrout Seatrout cb

Half a Great Belt Bridge: 2 Billion Euro

Offshore Farming in the North Sea?

1 Million tons fish/yr: 200 km2

Plants / mussels for food and nutrient recycling: 2000 km2

Catchcultures: Mussels and Seaweed

New Species?

Sea Farm Committee:– Turbot, Sole– Not Cod!

Vegetarian species: Mullet

Perch/Pikeperch Exotic Fish:

Barramundi, Tilapia GMO?

The Virtual Fish Farm

A 3D model of a fish farm

Including fish behaviour

Sensors all over: in the nets and in the fish too

Offshore Fish Farms?

And the Oceans?

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion

Plenty of space, food and nutrients

http://www.nrel.gov/otec/apps.html

Will There be Scarcity of Fish?

Fish Culture without water: Recirculation

Animal Culture without animals: an infinitely long fishfillet cell culture

The technical options are present

We will never have fish scarcity

But will Denmark be a supplier??

Discussion