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Rodolfo Sabonge
Vicepresident, Market Research and Analysis
Autoridad del Canal de Panamá
January 19, 2012
Update on the Panama Canal Expansion
2
+ 7
3
FY 2011 Canal Traffic Indicators
Update on the Expansion Program (Video Clip)
Potential Impact/Importance of the Expansion
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2011 (
E)
Fiscal Year
To
tal T
on
na
ge
(PC
UM
S)
Tra
ns
its
14,769
322
Transits vs. Panama Canal/UMS Tonnage
FY 1915 – FY 2011
Average PC/UMS Tonnage for
Commercial Transits
Main Routes - FY 2011
East Coast US -- Asia 87.3M
West Coast South America -- Europe 15.2M
Total (long tons) 222.4 M
West Coast Central America – East Coast US 11.7M
West Coast South America – East Coast US 26.2M
West Coast US – Europe 9.9M
Tonnage by Market Segments FY 2010 – FY 2011
11.30
7.78
10.34
14.59
46.56
33.05
72.59
104.59
11.71
9.19
10.77
12.83
48.99
34.68
79.94
113.59
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Others
General Cargo
Passenger
Refrigerated
Tanker
Vehicle Carrier
Dry Bulk
Container
PCUMS (in millions)
FY2011 (e)
FY2010
Liner Services Through
The Panama Canal
Trade Route Number of
Services
Yearly
Capacity
Number of
Vessels
Average
Vessel Size
Asia - USEC 13 3,008,960 120 4,440
Pendulum 3 747,626 41 4,784
WCSA - Europe 8 1,097,730 56 2,900
Asia - Caribbean 1 239,232 11 4,588
WCSA - Caribbean 1 97,537 3 2,405
WCSA - USEC 3 378,975 18 2,423
Oceania - USEC – Europe 2 209,276 16 2,654
USWC - Europe 2 283,155 14 3,255
USWC - ECSA 1 100,010 5 1,918
Rotterdam Antwerp Dunkirk
Hamburg
Bilbao Marin
Guayaqu
il
Calla
o
San Antonio
Mejillones Antofagast
a
Manta
Cartagena
Ensenad
a
Manzanillo
Kingston
P.
Caucedo
Manzanillo Port of Spain
P. Cabello
Cristobal
Chiwan
Shanghai
Busan
Ningbo
Kaohsiung
Qingdao
Hong Kong
Jacksonvill
e Houston
Miami
Savannah Charleston
Mobile
New York
Tangier
Dubai
Sidney
Melbourne
Napier
Tauranga
Papeete
Lautoka
Noumea
Tilbury
Le
Havre
San Juan
PR
Iquique
Ilo
Taipe
i
Pyongtaek Yokoham
a
Tokyo
Yantian
Los Angeles
Oakland
Norfolk
Melbourne
Tauranga
Sidney
Timaru
Auckland
Port Chalmers
Vancouver
Balboa
Seattle
Lázaro
Cardenas Pto. Quetzal
La Spezia Naples
Valencia Gioia
Tauro
Source: Compair Data, January 2011
Port Development in Panama
1996: 235K TEUs
2010: 5.59M TEUs
2011: 6.58M TEUs
2015: 8.4M TEUs(P)
Panama Ports Company –
Cristobal Colon Container Terminal Manzanillo International Terminal
(MIT)
Panama Ports
Company -
Balboa
Tonnage by Market Segments FY 2010 – FY 2011
11.30
7.78
10.34
14.59
46.56
33.05
72.59
104.59
11.71
9.19
10.77
12.83
48.99
34.68
79.94
113.59
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Others
General Cargo
Passenger
Refrigerated
Tanker
Vehicle Carrier
Dry Bulk
Container
PCUMS (in millions)
FY2011 (e)
FY2010
BUILDING STRONG®
Mississippi River Watershed
BUILDING STRONG®
Grain Cargo Tonnage
Source: ACP Data Warehouse Years are fiscal: October through September
BUILDING STRONG®
Source:ACP Data Warehouse
Soybean and corn (Metric Tons)
13
FY 2011 Canal Traffic Indicators
Update on the Expansion Program (Clip)
Panama Canal Expansion
Program Objectives
Maintain Canal competitiveness as well as the
value of the route
Increase capacity and allow the transit of larger
ships
Reduce water consumption
Improve safety and efficiency
Sustain tonnage and profitability growth
Canal Expansion Program Components
• Deepening of Pacific and
Atlantic entrance channels
• Deepening and widening of the
Gatun Lake navigation channel
• Construction of new access
channel for Pacific Locks
• Construction of new Post
Panamax Locks and water
saving basins in the Atlantic
and the Pacific
• Increase the maximum
operating level of Gatun Lake
coming soon… 30 Speakers 25 Visionary Leaders One Idea ONE OF A KIND EVENT
17
FY 2011 Canal Traffic Indicators
Update on the Expansion Program (Clip)
Potential Impact/Importance of the Expansion
The Panama Canal - 2014
GAME CHANGER?
Locks Chamber and Vessel Size 33.5 m (110’)
32.3 m (106’)
12.8 m (42’)
55 m (180’)
49 m (160’)
18.3 m (60’)
12.4 m (39.5’)
15.2 m (50’)
Existing locks' maximum vessel size: 4,400 TEU
New locks' maximum vessel size: 12,600
20
21
22
MAERSK Line looks set to limit its fleet of 18,000 teu containerships to 20
units, but has more than a month to decide whether to exercise its option to
order 10 more.
The deadline on the option for the final tranche expires at the end of February,
but Maersk has already said it does not expect to convert the option into an
order. The decision is likely to be confirmed when AP Moller-Maersk publishes
its full-year results on February 27.
Speculation about Maersk’s intentions was fuelled by comments in the German
media that appeared to suggest that it had cancelled the order for the second
series of 10, placed last summer.
However, Maersk says it will take delivery of all 20 Triple-E ships ordered last year at
a cost of $190m each.
Maersk announced its $1.9bn order for 10 ships to be built by Daewoo Shipbuilding
and Marine Engineering almost a year ago, along with options for two more series of
10.
At 400 m long and with a beam of 59 m, they will be the largest ships in service.
Deliveries will start in 2013.
23
Equa
tor
Main Global Container
Transportation Flows
Landbridge
Westbound Route
Eastbound Route
Panama Route
East Asia
South Asia Southeast Asia
PANAMAX
POSTPANAMAX
24
Equa
tor
Main Global Container
Transportation Flows
Landbridge
Westbound Route
Eastbound Route
Panama Route
East Asia
South Asia Southeast Asia
POSTPANAMAX
POSTPANAMAX
TRANS-PACIFIC
21 million TEU
ASIA-EUROPE
17 million TEU
TRANS-ATLANTIC
6 million TEU
INTRA-ASIA
56 million TEU (including Australia,
Indian Subcontinent and
Middle East)
OTHER TRADES
North-South :
24 million TEU
Intra-Regional:
16 million TEU
2010 World Container Flow
Worldwide: 140m TEU in 2010
28 Days,$XXX
Norfolk
5 days
$YYY
3 days
$YYY 12 days,
$XXX
$ vs TT: Key is Time Sensitivity
Memphis
6 days
$YYY
2 days
$YYY
Atlanta
7 days
$YYY
5 days
$YYY
2 days
$YYY
2 days
$YYY
South China
Value Trade Off ≈ Incremental Cost
Transit Time Diff.
[($Xw+$Yw) - ($Xe+$Ye)]
[(TTow+TTi) - (TToe+Tti)] ≈
Long Beach
Chicago Columbus
Route Cost Elements
Unit Route
Cost Elements
US Inland
transportation
costs
11 regions in US
11 centroids
Route port to centroid
Local drayage
Rail
Truck
An expanded generalized cost concept
Generalized cost =
Direct cost of transportation
+ Cost of time
+ Frequency cost
+ Cost of reliability
Pipeline inventory
Safety stock
Supply variations
Demand variations
Maritime cost
Port cost
Inland cost
Market share computation
Método: Nested Logit (Mc Fadden, Nobel 2000)
32
Conventional
North
Atlantic
Central
Atlantic
South
Atlantic / Gulf
Direct
Transshipment Circum-Equatorial
North
Atlantic
Central
Atlantic
South
Atlantic / Gulf
Caribbean
Transshipment
Triangle
North
Atlantic
Central
Atlantic
South
Atlantic / Gulf
Emerging Global Maritime Freight Transport System
Port Traffic, TEU (2010)
2010 Piracy at Sea
0-4,000+ teu 4,000-6,000+ teu 0-5,000 teu 5-10,000 teu 10,000+ teu 0-5,000 teu 5-10,000 teu 10,000+ teu
85%
Pmax and less
15% P.Pmax
2000
(4.79 millionTEU)
2016
(19.4 million TEU)
371 Panamax 134 Post Panamax
1,021 Panamax 1,325 Post Panamax
17.6%
37%
45.4%
Pmax and less
54.6% Total P.Pmax
Fuente: Clarkson’s Research Studies-julio 2011
2011
(14.9 million TEU)
961 Panamax 889 Post Panamax
36.2
8.2%
55.6%
Pmax and less
44.4% Total P.Pmax
Container Fleet Capacity and Vessel Size Composition
Carrier Operating Margins
1H/2011: Top-20 Ocean Carrier Operating Profit and Margins
Financial Health Check
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
OO
IL
Mae
rsk
NO
L
Wan
Hai
Ever
gree
n
CSCL
MO
L G
rp
K L
ine
Grp
NYK
Grp
Hap
ag-L
loyd
CMA
CG
M
Zim
CSA
V
Cosc
o
Yang
Min
g
HM
M
Han
jin
Hor
izon
Z-Score
Healthy Zone
Caution Zone
Distress Zone
Source: Drewry FSI, Sept 2011
Z-score = 1.2T1 + 1.4T2 + 3.3T3 + 0.6T4 +
1.0T5
T1 = (Cur Assets-Cur Liabilities) / Total Assets
T2 = Retained Earnings / Total Assets
T3 = Annual Earnings B4 Int & Tax / Total
Assets
T4 = Book Value of Equity / Total Liabilities
T5 = Annual Sales / Total Assets
38
Demand/Supply Forecast
CO2 emission
trading from 2013
Price of Heavy Fuel Oil {HFO} will
continue to rise in the long run (2.5% pa)
2020: SOx-limits for fuel
apply globally. MGO
demands a premium >
50% of Heavy Fuel Oil
Clean Fuel > High Price
Why “Slow Steaming”?
Slow Steaming = more ships + boxes = $$$$$
BUILDING STRONG®
U.S. Soybean Production and Exports
2001 – 2011 and Trend to 2021 U.S. Likely to be Producing 3.7 Billion Bushels in 2021, Exports
Likely Reach 2.5 Billion Bushels (68%)
The Impact of Canal Expansion on Dry Bulks
1. The USG-Asia grain trade will become more competitive through the use of larger vessels.
2. Potential for increased trade of coal to Asia/China.
Competitive Analysis for Dry Bulks Granos Vessel: 55,000 dwt - 90% Utilization (for Panamá)
Escenario Base $US Dollar per ton
Days FuelCharter
ratePorts Canal
Cargo
HandlingInland Total
Indice de
Competiti
vidad
Grain Belt - Asia - Panama Canal 43 12.22 12.93 2.89 2.51 8.10 29.91 68.56 1.00
Grain Belt - Asia - Intermodal (PNW) 31 6.43 8.15 2.68 0.00 24.59 50.11 91.95 1.34
Grain Belt - Asia - Suez Canal 58 17.13 17.29 2.89 4.42 8.10 29.91 79.73 1.16
Grain Belt - Asia - C. G. H. 61 20.27 19.53 2.89 0.22 8.10 29.91 80.92 1.18
Grain Belt - Asia - C. H. 64 19.09 18.56 2.89 0.11 8.10 29.91 78.65 1.15
Escenario Mercado de buques en alza y aumento en peajes
Aumento en peajes de 50%
Grain Belt - Asia - Panama Canal 43 12.22 19.40 2.89 3.77 8.10 29.91 76.28 1.00
Grain Belt - Asia - Intermodal (PNW) 31 6.43 12.22 2.68 0.00 24.59 50.11 96.03 1.26
Grain Belt - Asia - Suez Canal 58 17.13 25.93 2.89 4.42 8.10 29.91 88.37 1.16
Grain Belt - Asia - C. G. H. 61 20.27 29.30 2.89 0.22 8.10 29.91 90.68 1.19
Grain Belt - Asia - C. H. 64 19.09 27.85 2.89 0.11 8.10 29.91 87.94 1.15
Escenario Mercado de buques en baja y aumento en peajes
Aumento en peajes de 50%
Grain Belt - Asia - Panama Canal 43 12.22 6.47 2.89 3.77 8.10 29.91 63.35 1.00
Grain Belt - Asia - Intermodal (PNW) 31 6.43 4.07 2.68 0.00 24.59 50.11 87.88 1.39
Grain Belt - Asia - Suez Canal 58 17.13 8.64 2.89 4.42 8.10 29.91 71.09 1.12
Grain Belt - Asia - C. G. H. 61 20.27 9.77 2.89 0.22 8.10 29.91 71.15 1.12
Grain Belt - Asia - C. H. 64 19.09 9.28 2.89 0.11 8.10 29.91 69.37 1.10
Carbón Vessel: 60,000 dwt - 75% Utilization (for Panama)
Escenario Base $US Dollar per ton
Days FuelCharter
ratePorts Canal
Cargo
HandlingTotal
Indice de
Competiti
vidad
Norfolk to Nagoya - C. G. H. 47 18.76 11.57 2.27 0.00 8.36 40.97 1.09
Norfolk to Nagoya - C. H. 50 20.28 12.42 2.27 0.33 8.36 43.66 1.16
Norfolk to Nagoya - Panama 32 14.33 9.24 2.73 2.99 8.36 37.65 1.00
Norfolk to Nagoya - Suez 42 16.39 10.51 2.27 4.20 8.36 41.73 1.11
Santa Marta / Tocopilla - C. H. 31 11.12 7.70 1.79 0.33 8.36 29.31 1.37
Santa Marta / Tocopilla - Panamá 14 3.96 3.92 2.15 2.99 8.36 21.38 1.00
Vancouver to Rotterdam - C. H. 44 18.83 11.00 5.10 0.33 10.26 45.52 1.10
Vancouver to Rotterdam - Panama 29 13.66 8.36 6.12 2.99 10.26 41.39 1.00
Escenario Mercado de buques en alza y aumento en peajes
Aumento en peajes de 50%
Norfolk to Nagoya - C. G. H. 47 18.76 17.36 2.27 0.00 8.36 46.75 1.07
Norfolk to Nagoya - C. H. 50 20.28 18.62 2.27 0.33 8.36 49.87 1.14
Norfolk to Nagoya - Panama 32 14.33 13.86 2.73 4.49 8.36 43.77 1.00
Norfolk to Nagoya - Suez 42 16.39 15.76 2.27 4.20 8.36 46.98 1.07
Santa Marta / Tocopilla - C. H. 31 11.12 11.56 1.79 0.33 8.36 33.16 1.34
Santa Marta / Tocopilla - Panamá 14 3.96 5.88 2.15 4.49 8.36 24.84 1.00
Vancouver to Rotterdam - C. H. 44 18.83 16.50 5.10 0.33 10.26 51.02 1.08
Vancouver to Rotterdam - Panama 29 13.66 12.53 6.12 4.49 10.26 47.06 1.00
Escenario Mercado de buques en baja y aumento en peajes
Aumento en peajes de 50%
Norfolk to Nagoya - C. G. H. 47 18.76 5.79 2.27 0.00 8.36 35.18 1.02
Norfolk to Nagoya - C. H. 50 20.28 6.21 2.27 0.33 8.36 37.45 1.08
Norfolk to Nagoya - Panama 32 14.33 4.62 2.73 4.49 8.36 34.53 1.00
Norfolk to Nagoya - Suez 42 16.39 5.25 2.27 4.20 8.36 36.48 1.06
Santa Marta / Tocopilla - C. H. 31 11.12 3.85 1.79 0.33 8.36 25.46 1.22
Santa Marta / Tocopilla - Panamá 14 3.96 1.96 2.15 4.49 8.36 20.92 1.00
Vancouver to Rotterdam - C. H. 44 18.83 5.50 5.10 0.33 10.26 40.02 1.03
Vancouver to Rotterdam - Panama 29 13.66 4.18 6.12 4.49 10.26 38.71 1.00
Grain
Coal
Dry Bulk Fleet Capacity (Millions DWT)
Size Range
2011 Orders
(2011-13) 2015 E*
Capacity in Millions of DWT
Up to Panamax (10-90K DWT) 326.6 125.0 451.6
Capesize (>90K DWT) 237.5 124.4 361.9
Total 564.1 249.4 813.5
* Total 2015 estimated ,not including scrapping
Source: Clarksons Research Studies, June 2011
Up to Panamax
(<106) 341.8 61%
Capesize (>106) 22.3, 39%
Capacity 2011
Up to Panamax
(>106) 138.2 55%
Capesize (>106) 111.2 45%
New Orders
Up to Panamax
(<106) 480.0 59%
Capesize (>106) 333.5 41%
Capacity 2013
46
Competitive Analysis Tankers
Vessel 40,000 DWT - 90% Utilization (for Panamá)
US$ Dólares por Tonelada
Route Days Fuel Charter
Rate Ports Canal
Cargo
Handling Inland Total
Competitive
Index
Houston / Quintero - C.H. 31 15.40 11.91 2.39 0.00 1.19 0.00 30.90 1.58
Houston / Quintero - Panama 16 7.09 6.10 2.39 2.76 1.19 0.00 19.53 1.00
Houston / Quintero - Panama
Pipeline 20 7.32 7.40 2.89 0.00 1.19 4.00 22.80 1.17
Oil Tankers
Up to Panamax
170.4 29%
Aframax 109.3 18%
Suezmax 89.2 15%
VLCC 225.3 38%
Tanker Fleet Capacity
(Millions DWT)
Vessel Size Range 2011
Orderbook
(2012-14) 2015 E *
Capacity in Million DWT
Up to Panamax (<106') 145.8 24.5 170.4
Aframax (106' - 140') 95.7 13.6 109.3
Suezmax (140' - 160') 67.2 22.0 89.2
VLCC (> 160') 172.1 53.2 225.3
Total 480.8 113.3 594.2
* Total 2015 estimate does not include demolitions
Source: Clarkson Research Ltd, 2011
Up to Panamax
145.8 30%
Aframax 95.7 20%
Suezmax 67.2 14%
VLCC 172.1 36%
Capacity 2011
Up to Panamax
24.5 22%
Aframax 13.6 12% Suezmax
22.0 19%
VLCC 53.2 47%
Orderbook 2012-2014
Capacity 2015
50
The Impact of Canal Expansion on Liquid Bulks
1. Canal expansion will make Ecuador – USG crude shipments more competitive vs alternative sources (e.g., ex Nigeria)..
2. The expanded Canal will be the first route choice for LNG trades between Trinidad-Chile and Peru-USG and for Shale Gas exports coming out of the U.S. destined to Asia.
53
54
Tonnage by Market Segments FY 2010 – FY 2011
11.30
7.78
10.34
14.59
46.56
33.05
72.59
104.59
11.71
9.19
10.77
12.83
48.99
34.68
79.94
113.59
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Others
General Cargo
Passenger
Refrigerated
Tanker
Vehicle Carrier
Dry Bulk
Container
PCUMS (in millions)
FY2011 (e)
FY2010
Oasis of the Seas
The Future of Market Segments – Panama Canal
Container
Container Break Bulk
Dry Bulk
Vehicle Carriers
Ro-Ro´s
Tankers
Chemical Carriers
LPG
LNG
Refrigerated Vessels
Cruise
General Cargo
Others
57 Value-Added Components of Panama’s
Transportation and Logistics Cluster
58
Continuing negotiations between GUPC and Labor Unions,
Average Annual GDP Growth Rates for Latin America 2000-2010 (%chg) -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
Panama
Surinam
Trinidad & Tobago
Peru
R. Dominicana
Costa Rica
Ecuador
Argentina
Honduras
Colombia
Belice
Bolivia
Chile
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Guatemala
Venezuela
Nicaragua
El Salvador
Mexico
Jamaica
Haiti
Source: IMF, INDESA
Panama’s Real GDP Growth 2006-2011
Source: Contraloría General de la República, INDESA
8.5%
12.1%
10.1%
3.2%
7.5%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
10.3%
2011E
Foreign Direct Investment: 2006-2010 (millions of US$ and % of GDP)
Source: Contraloría General de la República, INDESA
$2,560
$1,777
$2,196
$1,773
$2,363
15%
9% 10%
7%
9%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
18.00%
20.00%
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDI
(mill
ion
s $
US)
Foreign investment has also been strong
2,403
3,205 2,991
2,679
2,318
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT PROGRAM
(2010-2014)
(in millions)
Source: ACP, MEF