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Afshin MolaviSenior Fellow, The Foreign Policy Institute
Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies
Editor/Founder – The New Silk Road Monitor
“The Five Disruption-Proof Trends Disrupting Our World.”
From the 5th Century BC to Today
Moore’s Law
Mike Tyson’s Law: “Everyone has a
plan….”
“’till you get punched in the face”
Disruption
From the Printing Press to the Internet
From Cold Chain to Block Chain
Where are we going?
History Has a New Velocity
The Speed of Change
From 0 to 6 Billion…
The United States of Petroleum
A world of geopolitical risk
US Chamber C100 Meeting- 2015
President Trump
The Year 2016
US Chamber C100 Meeting - 2015
US Chamber C100 - 2015
US Chamber C100 - 2015
One Year Later…
“Something Special”
How do you like your Brexit?
The Year 2015• Greece and the IMF
• Houthis rise; Yemen President resigns; Saudi Arabia-led coalition begins offensive
• ISIS on the march, capturing more territory
• UK General Election, first conservative majority in 18 years.
• Cuba-US restore relations
• Global Climate Change Pact
• Elections/Re-Elections: Netanyahu, Macri, Trudeau, Buhari, Law and Justice party in Poland, Greek snap elections, Venezuela opposition routs the Chavistas in legislative
AFPM 2019
Trade Wars - The Defining Macro Risk
Deal or No Deal?
Deadline Diplomacy…
US Election 2020
Key Macro Risk: Rising Populist
Nationalism in Europe
Upcoming Elections
Argentina – October 2019
Hong Kong Local –November 2019
Greece Presidential – 2020
Poland Presidential – 2020
Israel Knesset – Sep. 17
Putin’s Next Chess Move?
The Xi Doctrine
Iran: Showdown or Back to Diplomacy?
Tanker Wars?
Syria Civil War
North Korea and the Korean Peninsula
ISIS/ISIL/Da’esh
Refugee Crisis
Remember that Rising Populist
Nationalism?
President Maduro, but for how long?
Technology Disruption
Markets….
Climate Change
Social Storms – “Facebook-istan”
Political Discourse
Five Key “Disruption-Proof” Trends
Five Key Trends: Disruption Proof
• 85%
• 129 million per year
• 1.5 million per week
• 5.3 billion
• Under 30
The 85% - “The Rest”
85% Growth
Emerging vs Developed Economies’ Share of World GDP (PPP, %)
Asia – Africa 2030
• Some 6 out of 10 in Asia
• 78% of the world will live in either Asia or Africa
September 15, 2019 - 353,424
129 million
Demographic Domination
World Population - 7.71 Billion
• Southeast and E Asia - 2.33 B
• SS Africa – 1.06 B
• MENA – 517 million
• Central and S Asia – 1.99 B
• LAC – 648 M• Australia/NZ – 30 M• Europe + NA - 1.14 B• Oceania – 12 M
World Population - 2030
• Europe will shrink by 4 million
• Northern America will add 60 million people
• Africa will add another 500 million people
• Asia will add another 600 million people
UN Projections 2050
• World Population:
– 9.7 billion
• Most populous countries:
1. India
2. China
3. Nigeria
These three will account for 35% of world urban population growth through 2050.
The Growing Nine
More than half of the world’s population growth through 2050 will be concentrated in 9 countries
• DRC
• Egypt
• Ethiopia
• India
• Indonesia
• Nigeria
• Pakistan
• Tanzania
• United States
129 million
129 million
1.5 million per week
Our Urban World
• The World Today– 55% Urban
• The World in 2050– 68% Urban
• Africa in 1950– 3 cities of one million
• Africa today – 56+ cities of one million
• Asia 48% today headed for 64% by 2050
1.5 million per week
1.5 million per week
Cities as Economic Engines
Asian citiesIn 1900, only one of the world’s largest cities was in Asia.
Today, 4 of the top 5 and 6 of the top 10 largest cities are in Asia.
Top 10 Megacities by size
1) Tokyo – 38.4 m
2) Delhi – 26.4 m
3) Shanghai – 24.4 m
4) Mumbai – 21.3 m
5) Sao Paulo – 21.2 m
6) Beijing – 21.2 m
7) Mexico C. – 21.1 m
8) Osaka – 20.3 m
9) Cairo – 19.1 m
10) New York – 18.6 m
The Next Ten11) Dhaka – 18.2 m
12) Karachi – 17.1 m
13) Buenos Aires – 15.3 m
14) Kolkata – 14.9 m
15) Istanbul – 14.3 m
16) Chongqing – 13.7 m
17) Lagos – 13.6 m
18) Manila – 13.1 m
19) Guanghzhou – 13 m
20) Rio – 12.9 m
Africa Urbanization – 2050 – 1 billion+
Global Urbanization Rates – By the Numbers
Today – 4.2 B Urban
• 1900 - 15%
• 1950 – 30%
• 2020 – 55%
• 2050 – 68%
90% of new urban growth to take place in Asia/Africa
The Top Ten Fastest Growing Economies –2019 ForecastThe Top Ten Fastest Growing Economies – 2019
1) Ghana, South Sudan Tie – 8.8%2) Rwanda – 7.8%3) Ethiopia – 7.7%4) Cote D’Ivoire – 7.5%5) India, Bangladesh Tie – 7.3%6) Senegal – 6.9%&) Cambodia – 6.8%8) Lao PDR, Djibouti – 6.7%9) Nepal, Philippines, Vietnam, Benin, Niger – 6.5%10) Mauritania, Myanmar – 6.4%
Source: IMF WEOPublished: New Silk Road Monitor
The Next Ten Fastest Growing Economies (Forecast) 2019
11) China, Turkmenistan, Uganda Tie – 6.3%12) Burkina Faso, Panama Tie –6.0%13) Guinea – 5.9%14) Kenya – 5.8%15) Egypt – 5.5%16) Republic of Congo – 5.4%17) Indonesia, Malta Tie – 5.218) Dominican Republic – 5.1%19) Central African Rep, Togo, Tajikistan, Guinea Bissau, Timor Leste, Mali – 5%20) Bhutan – 4.8%
Source: IMF WEOPublished: New Silk Road Monitor
5.3 billion (by 2030)
Asian Middle ClassBy 2030:
Asia will provide:
• 2/3 of the global middle class
• 40% of global consumption.
• 88% of new global middle class entrants
Source: Homi Kharas, Brookings Institution
5.3 billion (by 2030)
5.3 billion (by 2030)
5.3 billion by 2030
5.3 billion (by 2030)
Asia ImportsThe world’s largest importing region
• Asia: 36%
• US and EU: 31%
Source: WTO
Under 30
Under 30
Under 30
Sub-Saharan Africa Population
Hong Kong Protests…Revolutions to Come?
Consumer Revolution
The “Costco Riots”
The Ride Share Wars
UBER
LYFT
DIDI CHUXING (China)
OLA (India)
GrabTaxi (SE Asia)
Careem (Dubai)
China Middle Class on the March
2002 – 80 Million
2022 – 550 Million
Source: McKinsey
China Demand
China Demand
India Rising
• Every second 3 Indians experience the internet for the first time
• 70% of online sales are by smartphone
• Every month, 1 million Indians turn 18
India Rising
• By 2027, population will overtake China and will also contain the world’s largest middle class
• World’s largest film industry
Emerging Middle Classes –5 per second
3.8 billion today
5 people per second are entering the middle classes
In 2018, we hit a majority tipping point, where the majority of the world was middle class
IEA sees jet fuels and petrochemicals as key drivers of growth “more than offsetting a slowdown in gasoline due to efficiency gains in electric cars.”
Middle Class Market By the Numbers - 2030
China - $14.1 trillion
India - $12.3 trillion
U.S - $15.9 trillion
Global - $56 trillion
$56 trillion (by 2030)
Immense Needs
• Roads
• Public Transport
• Sewage
• Water
• Clinics
• Schools
• Housing
The Sound of Emerging Markets
The Look of EM
7 billion mobile phone subscriptions globally
9.2 billion by 2019
80% of those will be mobile broadband
3 billion smartphones today
6 billion smartphones by 2021
Kitchen and Laundry Modernity
Air Travel Revolution
Air Traffic Growth
• 2019 – 4.6 Billion• 7 of the 10 busiest
routes: Asia-Pacific
• 2037 – 8.2 Billion• China/India = 45% of growth
The Dubai Air Hub
Cars, Trucks, Buses
77 million cars estimated to be sold in 2019
1.32 billion cars, trucks and buses on roads today
World Trade
Energy Demand
The Great Challenge (and Opportunity) of Our Age
The World Will Need All of the Products American Companies Make
Winning the War on Poverty?
25 years ago:
• 37% of humanity lived below the poverty line
Today: 9%
1990 East Asia and Pacific:
• 60% lived below
poverty line
Today: 7.2%
1990 South Asia:
• 50.6% of world lived below poverty line
Today: below 15%
So, What Could Go Wrong?
Let’s not forget Tyson’s Law…
And this….
The Uprisings – “How am I supposed to make a living?”
U.S Still the Economic Colossus
US GDP
Arizona GDP vs World (Nominal)
29) UAE - $427.8 B30) Norway - $427.04 B31) Hong Kong - $381.7 B32) Ireland - $381.57 B33) Israel - $381.5635) Malaysia - $373.4 B36) Singapore - $372.8 B37) South Africa - $371.2 B38) Philippines - $356.6 B39) Denmark - $349 B40) Arizona - $346 B41) Colombia – $336 B42) Bangladesh - $314 B43) Egypt - $300 B
DC-Arlington-Alexandria Metro – 24th
Source: IMF and US Bureau of Economic Analysis
The $80 Trillion World Economy in One Chart
World Exports In One Chart
Foreign Direct Investment
Investing in America
US Trade, FDI and Jobs
• Jobs Supported by Exports: 10.1 Million
• Jobs Supported by FDI: 7.1 Million
Trade with Canada – Net 6.5 million
Trade with Mexico – Net 4.5 million
Trade with the EU – Net 5.2 million
Trade with China – Net 6.9 million Trade with Japan –Net 1.3 million
Trade with Korea – Net 1 Million
Source: Department of Commerce ITA, SelectUSA, and Trade Partnership Worldwide for Business Roundtable
US Travel Industry - 2018
• World’s largest Travel & Tourism economy
• Sector contributes almost $1.6tn to GDP.
• Equivalent 7.8% of US GDP with the sector growing by 2.2% (accounting for inflation) last year.
• China traveler numbers flat after steady rise, but they remain big spenders, accounting for 11% of all international spending
Source: World Travel and
Tourism Council
Size, Innovation, and Trade
Where are we going?
“We Must Steer By the Stars; Not by the Lights of Each Passing Ship” –Gen. Omar Bradley
Politics-Proof Trends
• Urbanization
• Connectivity
• Emerging Middle Classes
• Demographics
