African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses

Afrikanske Monsun: Multidisiplinære Analyser

Afrikaanse Moesson Multidisciplinaire Analyse

Analisi Multidisciplinare per il Monsone Africano

Afrikanischer Monsun: Multidisziplinäre Analysen Analisis Multidiciplinar de los Monzones Africanos

Analyses Multidisciplinaires de la Mousson Africaine

Variability in the West African Monsoon Matters!

Recognising the societal need to develop strategies that reduce the socioeconomic impacts of the variability of the WAM, AMMA will facilitate the multidisciplinary research required to provide improved predictions of the WAM and its impacts.

Variability in the WAM impacts the US!

Flooding in New Orleans due to Katrina (courtesy NOAA)

Bonnie (05)

Charlie (05)

Frances (05)

Ivan (05)

courtesy A. Aiyyer

The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system

NDVI image for 21-31 August 2000, from Pathfinder AVHRR, highlighting the marked

meridional gradients in surface conditions over tropical North Africa and zonal symmetry.

AEJ

Cold Tongue

SAL

ITCZ

Heat Low

Key features of the West African Monsoon Climate System during Boreal summer

The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system

θ

50oCθ

θe

90oC

θe

AEJ

20oC60oC

The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system

Programmatic aspects

• During past decades, China and India have benefited immensely from collaboration with the developed nations in weather-climate research (e.g., numerical modeling & field experiments)

• Africa has yet to benefit to a comparable degree: leverage ongoing activities as a framework?

• International African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) program is such a framework ( West African region)

• U.S. presence in AMMA mainly: a) DOE-ARM (deployment of a technologically advanced mobile observing system); b) NASA (hurricane genesis measurements downstream in E. Atlantic); IRI (global models)

Selected science aspects

• Africa is an integral part of the Earth’s climate system but has been little studied, poorly understood compared to other regions of the world

• Africa is one of Earth’s 3 large-scale heat sources, along with Amazonia and the Indonesian ‘Maritime Continent’

• Africa’s convective weather systems and precipitation regimes are direly in need of quantification

• Africa’s monsoon system differs from the Asia-Australia monsoon and from monsoons of the Americas – fundamental in regard to inter-annual issues at the weather-climate interface

Key weather systems in the West African and Tropical Atlantic regions

An ideal region to study scale interactions in the WAM and tropical cyclogenesis

AEWs

MCSs

SAL

TC

The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system

Introduction

Overview of AMMA-International

US contributions to the AMMA field campaign

AMMA-US

1. AMMA International

To reach AMMA aims, need to coordinate -Science (Challenge: disciplines, scales) -Implementation (Obs, Model,..) -Data archive and sharing -Funding issues

ACMAD

AGRYMET

African Univ

ASECNA

CERMES

DMN, DHN, , EIER, others ...

Others inEuropeINTEO, ...

FranceCATCH

White BookAMMA-API

UKNERC

DABEX DODO

GermanyIMPETUS VOLTA

USAARM-DOE NOAA NASA

Pan

-afr

ican

init

iati

ve(P

IAF

)EU Integrated Project

1. AMMA International

(1) To improve our understanding of the WAM and its influence on thephysical, chemical & biological environment regionally and globally.

(2) To provide the underpinning science that relates variability of the WAM toissues of health, water resources, food security & demography for West African nations and defining and implementing relevant monitoring &prediction strategies.

(3)  To ensure that the multidisciplinary research carried out in AMMA is

effectively integrated with prediction & decision making activity.

AIMS

Aerosols

Chemistry

Monsoon

Dynamics

IMPACTSIMPACTS

Water Resources

Public Health

Food security

Multi-Multi-disciplinary disciplinary

researchresearch

Socio-Economy

DecisionMaker

s

Early Warning Systems, Advice, Early Warning Systems, Advice, … …

WEATHER & CLIMATE PREDICTION & ITS IMPACTS

Medium Range Seasonal-Interannual Decadal Climate Change

Models & Models & ObservationsObservations

ISSCISSC

IGBIGB

Produces the Science & Implementation Plans

Endorses the Science & Implementation Plans

Links with International Programmes (WCRP, IGBP, THORPEX, ..)

ST4ST4 Capacity Capacity building building & & trainingtraining

WG1WG1

WG2WG2

WG3WG3

WG4WG4

WG5WG5

WAM & global climate (incl aerosol/chemistry

Water cycle

Land surface-atmosphere- ocean feedbacks

Prediction of climate impacts

High impact weather prediction

Integrative ScienceIntegrative Science

POPO

TT1TT1Radio soundingsRadio soundings

TT2aTT2aSurface LayerSurface Layer

TT3TT3Gourma siteGourma site

TT4TT4Niamey siteNiamey site

TT5TT5Ouémé siteOuémé site

TT6TT6Oceaic campaignsOceaic campaigns

TT7TT7SOP-Dry seasonSOP-Dry season

TT8TT8SOP-Monsoon seasonSOP-Monsoon season

TT9TT9SOP-DownstreamSOP-Downstream

ST2 incl

AO

C

ST3 D

atabase

ST1 E

OP

/LO

P

Obs implementationObs implementation

ICIGICIG

TT2bTT2bAerosol & Radiation Aerosol & Radiation

AMMA National & PanScientific Committees

ARMARM

International Scientific Steering Committee

Membership:Ernest Afiesimama, Abel Afouda, Abou Amani, Anton Beljaars, Bernard Bourles, Arona Diedhiou, Andreas Fink, Amadou Gaye, Jim Haywood, Paul Houser, Peter Lamb, Thierry Lebel, Bob Molinari, Doug Parker, Jan Polcher, Joe Prospero, Claire Reeves, Madeline Thomson

Co-Chairs: Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Chris Thorncroft

ISSC responsible for: Formulation of well defined scientific objectives and a coherent program, to address the three overarching aims (see International Science Plan)

To coordinate integrative work through the establishment of the 5 international WGs

WG1: West African Monsoon and Global Climate

This WG is concerned with the 2-way interactions between the West African

Monsoon & the rest of the globe.

Research areas under this theme include:

(i) Variability and predictability of the WAM (nature and role of teleconnections,

intraseasonal variability including easterly waves, predictability issues and the role

of the ocean, detection of global change),

(ii) Monsoon processes (e.g. scale interactions, the seasonal cycle and monsoon onset),

(iii) Global impacts of the WAM (e.g. on tropical cyclones, aerosol variability, atmospheric chemistry).

n.b. includes aerosol-chemistry, modeling strategy evolving

Co-chairs: Arona Diedhiou (IRD, Niger), Serge Janicot (LOCEAN, France) Peter Lamb (Univ. Oklahoma, US)

WG1: West African Monsoon and Global Climate

Observed and modeled rainfall (with labels for onset and retreat) for Niamey based on area-average of 50 gauges and model simulated rainfall ( Lebel et al, 2000).

Time series (1941-2001) of average normalized April-October rainfall departure for 20 stations in the West African Soudano-Sahel zone (11-18N and West of 10E); following methodology of Lamb and Peppler, 1992).

WG1: West African Monsoon and Global Climate

Dominant pattern of precipitation errorassociated with dominant pattern of SST prediction error based on persistent SST anomalies (Goddard & Mason ,Climate Dynamics, 2002)

Coupled model systematic error in equatorial SST simulation – note systematic error in east-west gradient in the tropical Atlantic

WG2: Water Cycle

Co-leaders: Amadou Gaye (Univ. Dakar, Senegal), Paul Houser (George Mason, US) ,

Jean-Luc Redelsperger (CNRM, France), France)

The efficiency of the processes controlling the advection of atmospheric moisture, its transformation into precipitation, and the behaviour of rain water over land (e.g. run-off, infiltration etc), is a crucial aspect of the WAM.

Analysis & understanding of the water cycle at regional-scale, mesoscale and local scale will be carried out in the WG.

Downscaling issues for impact studies are key.

Global SSTTeleconnections

Mesoscale Convective Systems

Convective Cells

Monsoon System

Easterly waves

GG SST Variability

Global

Mesoscale

Regional

Local

YearSeasonDayHour

Major River Basins

Catchments

Vegetation

Pools Vegetation

104 km

103km

102km

101km

SOP EOP LOP

SATELLITES

OBSERVATIONS

MODELLING / FORECASTS

A multiscale approach

Downscaling for impact studies

Scale Interactions

Water vapor transport Trace gaz , Aerosols, etc

WG3a: Land-surface-atmosphere feedbacks

To provide increased knowledge & understanding of the feedbacks between the continental surface & the atmosphere

to bring together the various process studies (land and atmosphere) in order to better understand the coupling at regional and mesoscale

Co-leaders: Jan Polcher (LMD, France); Chris Taylor (CEH, UK)

WG3a: Land-surface-atmosphere feedbacks

Koster et al, 2004

WG3b: Ocean-surface-atmosphere feedbacks

To provide increased knowledge & understanding of the feedbacks between the ocean surface & the atmosphere

to bring together the various process studies (ocean and atmosphere) in order to better understand the coupling at regional scales

Leader: Bernard Bourles et al

WG4: Prediction of climate impacts

Co-leaders: Abou Amani (AGHRYMET, Niger), Andy Morse (Univ.

Liverpool, UK), Madeleine Thompson (IRI, US) (IRI, US)

One of the 3 major aims of AMMA:

To provide the underpinning science that relates climate variability to issues of health, water resources, food security & demography for West African nations and defining relevant monitoring and prediction strategies.

AMMA will ensure strong linkages between the work taking place on impacts and that taking place on observed variability and predictability of the WAM.

Semaine du maximum du cycle saisonnier (hiver)(Position du FIT la plus basse en latitude)

Semaine dedémarrage

de l’épidémie

January

Prediction Alert Systems

Example: Meningitis epidemics in Mali

WG4: Prediction of climate impacts

WG5: High impact weather prediction and predictability

To improve our knowledge & understanding of high impact weather over Africa, including its impact on the tropical Atlantic and Europe.

Key timescale of interest is 1-15 days

CORE Membership: E. Afiesimama (NIMET), S. Jones (Un. Karlsuhe, Ger), D. Parsons (NCAR, US), F.Rabier (Meteo-France),C. Thorncroft (SUNY, US), Z. Toth (NCEP), US)

Can we predict dry/wet spells 15-days in advance?

Do such dry spells influence downstream tropical cyclone activity?

WG5: High impact weather prediction and predictability

Major Ongoing Activities:

• Tailoring and evaluation of forecast products for users in tropical regions

e.g. dry run 22nd August – 2nd September 2005; SOP 2006

• Impact of additional observations

ECMWF, Meteo-France, NCEP, NRL, UK Met Office and others

• Targeting in tropical regions

e.g. especially associated with driftsonde

International Coordination & Implementation Group

Co-chairs: Thierry Lebel (IRD-Niger) & Doug Parker (Un Leeds UK)

ICIG is responsible for implementation of the AMMA field program

10 years of observation and research

Monsoon Phases 0 1 0

September

<----------------------------------> <------------------------------------------------->

AMMA SOPs

SO

P0_

a1

SO

P0_

a2

SO

P2_

a2

SO

P1_

a

3

October November DecemberJune July August

AMMA SOP Year: 2006

2

January March April MayFebruary

SOP1

<---- SOP Ground instruments remaining on site for the whole annual cycle (AMF, Aerosol Measurements, Lidars, …) ----->

<----------------->

SO

P3_

a1

SOP3<------->

SO

P2_

a3

SO

P2_

a1

SOP0 SOP2

103

EEnhanced Period (EOP)

Long term Observations (LOP)

2002

WA + Ocean

Meso

Regional

Local

2005 2006 2007 2008

103

101

102

104

0 DR

Y0 W

ET

S O P

SO

P0

_a3

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EOP Maps

AMMA …

TamanrassetTamanrassetTamanrasset

SalSalKhartoumKhartoum

EGEE Cruises

From the continental to the local scale

NiameNiameyy

Ron Brown Cruises and Meteor

International Governing Board (IGB)

Co-Chairs: Eric Brun (Meteo-France) and Alan Thorpe (NERC)

Membership: G. Amanatidis (EU), J. Boulegue (IRD) , W. Ferrel (DOE), A. Guiteye(Director Operational Dept ASECNA), J. Kaye (NASA), A. Kignaman-Soro (ACMAD/D & Representative PIREM), J. Laver (NOAA-NCEP), A. Ndiaye (WMO), N. Papineau (INSU & CNRS)

To approve the structure and implementation of AMMA particularly with respect to the necessary financial and technical support.

To identify and mobilize national & international resources to support AMMA activities.

The first meeting took place on December 20 via video-conference  

Support Teams

AMMA International has also established a number of support teams for the project. Three of these are concerned with the field program and the data center. The fourth (ST4) is concerned with “Capacity Building and Training”.

There are a number of efforts going forward under the auspices of ST4 that require coordination (coordination is currently weak). This includes some support from IRD (France), a GEF proposal in West Africa, and calls for proposals from DFID (UK). There is an urgent need for stronger coordination of the various activities.The first meeting took place on December 20 via video-conference  

International AMMA Webpages

International AMMA webpages have been developed to aid communication

http://www.amma-international.org

Unique entrance to all AMMA sites

AMMA is definitively International

Endorsed by Major International Programmes

More than 500 Researchers from around 30 countries in Africa, Europe & USA Algeria, Belgium, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cap Verde, Chad, Congo, Denmark, France, Germany, Ghana, Italy, Ivory Coast, Mali, Morocco, Netherlands, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Spain, Togo, UK, US

Collaboration with other international Programmes as:

WMO

Founding Agencies

Regional African Centers

Agencies supporting AMMA

With the participation ofUniversity of Cologne, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfharte, University of Leeds, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, University of Copenhagen, MEDIAS-France, University of Burgundy, Université Paris 12 - Val de Marne, Université Paul Sabatier, Centre de coopération Internationale gen Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, University of Bremen, Forschunggszentrum Kalsruhe, Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften, Ludwig-Maximilianns-Universitaet Muenchen, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Univerrsity of East Anglia, University of Liverpool, University of York, University of Leicester, University of Manchester, Chancellor, Masters and Scholars of University of Cambridge, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Enea per Nuove Technologie, l'Energia e l'Ambiente, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche -Institute of Biometeorology , Universita' di Perugia, Universidad de Castilla- La Mancha, Universitad Complutense de Madrid, Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Université catholique de Louvain, European Ceeentre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Centre Régional AGRHYMET, Centre de Reecherche Médicale et Sanitaire, Ecole Inter-Etats d'Ingénieurs de l'Equipement JRural, African Centre of Meteorological Application for development, Vaisala OYJ, Ocean Scientific International Ltd, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Agence pour la Sécurité de la Navigation Aérienne en Afrique et Madagascar, Kalsrhue University, Universite d Abomey-Calavi, Universite de Dakar, Universite de Niamey, Directions de la Meteorologie et de l Hydrologie du Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote dÍvoire, Ghana, Guinee, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Togo

AMMA-US: Background

An AMMA-US proposal was prepared in December 2003 (see AMMA-US website)

Due to lack of funding the original AMMA-US proposal could not be funded as one; individual proposals were prepared to address various parts of the program.

Some of these as well as additional proposals have been successful, resulting in a significant US contribution to AMMA field program.

Surface-based research radars

Climate Transect

NASA-AMMA

Targeted Missions with DC-8, + Ground-based obs. (N-Pol + TOGA radars, soundings)

SALEX: NOAA P3 and G-IV

Targeted Missions and Dropsonde flights with G-IV

ARM mobile facility (DOE)

MIT-radar (NASA)

Surface obs. – malaria studies (NOAA)Driftsonde/THORPEX (NCAR/NSF/NOAA + CNES, France)

Ronald H. Brown Cruises + ship-based obs (NOAA), supported by multi-year sustained obs (see next slide)

US contributions to AMMA field program in 06

US-GCOS: Hydrogen generator at Dakar

ZEUS lightning detection network

Long-term observations in the tropical Atlantic

AMMA-US: Rationale and aims of workshop

It is estimated that in terms of field observations alone in 2006, the US is contributing ~$14M!!!!!.

BUT there is a lack of support for analysis of this data!

There are other significant US contributions to AMMA activities including in particular:

NCEP (e.g. forecast support including training via Africa Desk, real-time data impact studies)

GLOBE

Individual PIs (funded through normal routes)

AMMA-US: Coordination

As a result of a recent workshop a structure is being created to coordinate US contributions to AMMA. This structure mirrors as much as possible the international Working Group structure.

We are establishing the following 3 working groups:

WG1 West African Monsoon and Global Climate: Kerry Cook, Pete Lamb, Bob Molinari

WG2 Water Cycle: Paul Houser

WG3 Surface-atmosphere feedbacks: Fatih Eltahir (land), Erica Key (ocean)

The US also has important contributions to international WG4 (e.g. IRI) and WG5 (e.g. NAMMA, and individual PIs and groups working on prediction and predictability issues including NCEP, NRL, Univ. Miami).