Advances in Fundamental Climate Dynamics John M. Wallace et al. zonal avg. vs. eddy---> time avg. vs. transients decomposition of transients by frequency regional jet streams, storm tracks teleconnection patterns ENSO Rossby-wave dispersion on a sphere baroclinic wave life cycles Eliassen-Palm flux theory of the Hadley circulation linear response to local heat source boundary forcing of low frequency transients conceptual understanding of ENSO Why so much progress? Going beyond channel vision Gridded datasets AGCM simulations New resources superior gridded datasets, longer records extended AGCM runs ensemble AGCM runs coupled GCM runs better graphics (GrADS) New challenges dynamical extended range forecasting seasonal to interannual climate prediction decadal climate variability human induced climate change New phenomena downstream development Baroclinic wave life cycles LC1, LC2 midwinter suppression of Pacific storm track annular modes NAM surface air temperature anomalies Stratospheric influence on tropospheric circulation Long timescale Time Delay From Baldwin and Dunkerton, Science 244, , 2001 Nonlinearities Correlation with Great Plains summer rainfall summertime teleconnections SST Rainfall 200 mb height Coupled atmosphere-ocean phenomena The ENSO hangover tropical Atlantic Ocean dipole Indian Ocean dipole Pacific Decadal Oscillation Indian Ocean sea surface temperature familiar patterns in decadal variability New concepts Extratropical wave pump Singular Vectors, LIMs Free and forced response to extratropical boundary forcing New Challenges A more holistic view of climate Paleoclimate Addressing the gap between simulation and understanding in climate modeling Isaac Held we cannot limit ourselves to the search for simple concepts research with a hierarchy of models is needed Research must contribute to model development Research must contribute to understanding Elegance versus realism Modeling models 2-layer quasi-geostrophic model. Upper layer potential vorticity. Beta-plane Statistically steady, zonally homogeneous, baroclinically unstable jet. the climate scientists e coli AO NAO COWL PNA AIS