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‘Adapting the Blues’Sir Denis O’Connor CBE QPMHer Majesty’s Chief Inspector of Constabulary
4th July 2011
4th International Evidence Based Policing Conference
What lies beneath….Tangled up in blue
“Her folks they said our lives together
Sure was gonna be rough…
Lord knows I’ve paid some dues
getting through
Tangled up in blue.”Bob Dylan
Policing is intrinsically adaptive
A simple shop-lifting call ……could turn out to bea child protection case
Adaptation … lessons from nature
Our Noble Mission
What lies beneath….
“The wicked flee when no man pursueth…”
Proverbs 28:1
What lies beneath….Some questions for you….
Please tick one or more of the following:
Is your research geared to:
Generational austerity?
Garnering the political will to make the necessary hard choices?
Being able to inform the ‘better for less’ requirement of police leadership?
What lies beneath….The case of the peppered moth
“The significance of an adaptation can only be understood in relation
to the total biology of the species”
J. S. Huxley
What lies beneath….‘Outside in’…
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Crim
es p
er 1
,000
pop
ulati
on
Change in USA crime versus comparable recorded crime in England and Wales
USA (murder, rape, robbery, agg. assualt, burglary, theft and motor theft)
E & W (murder, rape, robbery, more serious wounding, burglary, theft from vehicle, theft from person, vehicle theft)
Source: Uniformed Crime Reporting StatisticsHome office recorded crime
What lies beneath….US / England & Wales Crime trends 1981 – 2011
Since 1997 crime spending has increased and overall crime has been reduced by 32% yet confidence in the government to stop crime is low.
When Mori asked respondents, only 20% were willing to accept crime overall is actually declining
Source: IPSOS MORI - ‘Closing the Gaps: Crime and Public Perceptions’.
The “Reassurance Gap”
What lies beneath….ASB has not gone away
What lies beneath….The real story of adaptation
The big changes depended on:
• Explanation (research)
• Operationalising (police leadership)
• Promotion (politicians)
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
Crim
e (m
)
Year
Comparison of recorded crime and BCS crime
All BCS crime
Total recorded crime19.3m
9.6m
5.1m4.3m
• BCS reductions flattening
• Forces already declaring crime rises
1995 – 2010 BCS and recorded crime
Crime can go up as well as down
“Once in a while a door opens, and lets the future in”Graham Greene
The changing police / security paradigm
Peaceful protestor
criminal activityor
BOTH?
Adapting to Protest
What lies beneath….Austerity bites
5 - 10% ….
10 - 20% ….
20% +….
What lies beneath….Disruption and change
Florida brush fire
Leadership in a Policing revolution
Simultaneous policing revolution in
Accountability
Funding
National Institutions
City Hot SpotsCourtesy of Lawrence W. Sherman
What lies beneath….
“…believing as I do that man in the distant future will be a far more perfect creature than he now is.”
Charles Darwin
DNA
What lies beneath….A hardy hybrid
Striata Hybrids Bletilla
What lies beneath….
“The wicked flee whenno man pursueth;
but the righteous are as bold as a lion”
Proverbs 28:1
Any Questions?
Sir Denis O’Connor CBE QPMHer Majesty’s Chief Inspector of Constabulary
4th July 2011
4th International Evidence Based Policing Conference