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© 2007 www.holmgren.com.au8/09/16 © 2006 www.holmgren.com.au 1
aaddaapptteedd ttoo eenneerrggyy ddeesscceenntt ffuuttuurreess
FFuuttuurree ooff FFoooodd CCoonnffeerreenncceeMMAAVV MMeellbboouurree SSeepptt 22001166
DDaavviidd HHoollmmggrreenn ccoo--oorriiggiinnaattoorr ooff tthhee ppeerrmmaaccuullttuurree ccoonncceepptt
8/09/16 © 2010 www.holmgren.com.au 2
Energy & Resource Use Population Pollution
Climax (post-modern cultural chaos)
Techno-Explosion
Techno-Stability
Energydescent
Collapse
Great Grand Children
Agriculture 10.000yrs BP
Industrial Revolution
Baby Boom Old Growth Forest
Pre-industrial sustainable culture
Historical Time Future Time
WWhhaatt IIss EEnneerrggyy DDeesscceenntt?? Decline in NET energy available to support humanity
A gentle decline like a balloon coming back to earth as the most hopeful future.
Mirrors energy ascent; very fast over several decades, and then more slowly over several centuries
Rate of change appears greater due to radical change in direction (permanent economic contraction)
History of past civilisations suggests a stepwise descent with stable states separated by crises
PPeerrmmaaccuullttuurree,, TTrraannssiittiioonn && EEDDAAPP
ccoommppaarreedd ttoo mmaaiinnssttrreeaamm SSuussttaaiinnaabbiilliittyy
Mainstream sustainability
Permaculture, Transition & Energy Descent Action Planning
View of future Techno-stability Energy Descent
Goal Minimising impact Increasing resilience
Strategy Reform existing systems from top down
Build parallel system from bottom up
Process Policies, planning & economics Self organising, practical, cultural, spiritual
Focus Built environment & technology Biological and behavioural systems.
© 2007 www.holmgren.com.au8/09/16 © 2006 www.holmgren.com.au 5
CClliimmaattee CChhaannggee && PPeeaakk OOiill ddrriivvee EEnneerrggyy DDeesscceenntt SScceennaarriiooss
Benign
Destructive
Climate Change
Slow Oil Decline 2% Fast Oil Decline 10%
2005
73 73
2005
© 2015 www.holmgren.com.au
GGlloobbaall GGrreeeenn DDiivviiddee
IInncclluuddiinngg GGrreeeenn RReeggrroowwtthh YYeeaarrss
22003355––22005599 EEaarrtthh SStteewwaarrddEEccoo--tteecchhnniicc
Glo
bal G
HG
em
issio
ns &
net
ene
rgy/
pers
onGGrreeeenn TTeecchh EEnneerrggyy DDeesscceenntt PPaatthhwwaayy
2008-2026 1st Great Depression
Central Vic Bushfires & Drought
2060-2070 Southern Australian federation
End of globalisation 2nd Great Depression
© 2007 www.holmgren.com.au
PPrrooppeerrttyy pprriiccee ccoollllaappssee,,
&& nnaanncciiaall ccrriissiiss
Gold and silver Intrinsic tender
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NNoorrtthheerrnn VViiccttoorriiaann iirrrriiggaatteedd aaggrriiccuullttuurree??
Eppalock catchment 10% reduction rainfall > 90% reduction in yield!!!
Lake Eppalock 2007
8/09/16 © 2011 www.holmgren.com.au 10
SSaallvvaaggee llooggggiinngg && rreeggrroowwtthh mmaannaaggeemmeenntt
8/09/16 © 2011 www.holmgren.com.au 11
RReettrrooSSuubbuurrbbiiaatthhee hheeaarrttllaanndd ooff ggaarrddeenn ffaarrmmiinngg
© 2014 www.holmgren.com.au 12
MMoonneettaarryy ttrraannssaaccttiioonnss ddoommiinnaattee eeccoonnoommyy aatt EEnneerrggyy PPeeaakk 22000077
10 5
20
40
25 Household Community Institutional Corporate Business
Monetary economy 50
20
10 5
15 Household Community Institutional Corporate Business
Non-monetary economy
NNoonn--mmoonneettaarryy ttrraannssaaccttiioonnss ddoommiinnaattee
eeccoonnoommyy iinn EEnneerrggyy DDeesscceenntt 22003355
© 2015 www.holmgren.com.au
Container Courtyard Suburban Grazing Rangeland, Forestry, Reserve
1m2 10m2 100m2 1000m2 1 ha 10ha 100ha 1000ha 10,000ha+
Sunshine
Rainfall/water
Soil
Rural Resid. Com. Hort.
Broadacre Cropping
AAggrriiccuullttuurraall LLaanndd UUssee
Land Use System Area %
Value of Food %
Horticulture/Aquaculture
10 25
Field Crops 20 25Tree Crops 20 25Animal Husbandry 50 25
PPeerrmmaaccuullttuurree SSiittee PPllaannnniinngg ZZoonneess
Spatial patterns and placement principles: Used to organize data about the
site into useful patterns and provide a framework for a concept plan. Concentric Zones of intensity
of use (human energies) Radial Sectors of wild energies Slope: Use of gravity as a
lateral force. Infrastructure: overlaid
structures of human controlled energies
BBiioorreeggiioonnaall AAggrriiccuullttuurraall ZZoonneess
Zone size Rural zones
larger but lower yields/ha, most managed by animals Urban zones
smaller but highest yield/ha most managed by people
0 Urban/ Indust
1 Garden
Ag
2 Urban
Ag
3 Arable
Farmland
4 Managed
rangelands & forest
5 Reserve
Return flow of Nutrients to
Farms Net flow of
Produce to Towns Comparative advantage in
perishable, high input, high value,
intensive production
Garden farming in the household
economy & commercial urban ag. produces most horticultural and small livestock
products
Comparative advantage in non perishable low input, low yield extensive production
Broad acre farming produces most staples, larger livestock
products and some tree crops for commercial sale through local &
central markets
ZZoonnee 00 UUrrbbaann && IInndduussttrriiaallArea % 2Typical Yields Mushrooms, Fish
Greens/Sprouts Ferments
Value of yields as % of diet
10
ZZoonnee 11 GGaarrddeenn FFaarrmmiinnggArea % 5Typical Yields Vegies, Fruit,
Eggs, Meat
Value of yields as % of diet
20
ZZoonnee 22 UUrrbbaann AAggrriiccuullttuurreeArea % 5Typical Yields Staple crops,
(potatoes, corn, pumpkins)Eggs, dairy
Value of yields as % of diet
20
UUrrbbaann AAggrriiccuullttuurree OOppppoorrttuunniissttiicc iirrrriiggaattiioonn uussiinngg ssttoorrmmwwaatteerr
ZZoonnee 33 RRuurraall AAggrriiccuullttuurree
Area % 30Typical Yields Dryland grains,legumes,
oil seeds ,dairy, meat, Value of yields as % of diet 30
ZZoonnee 44 RRaannggeellaannddss && FFoorreessttArea % 50Typical Yields meat, wool,
honey timber, fuel
Value of yields as % of diet
20
FFuuttuurree FFaarrmmiinngg ZZoonneessZone Area
%Typical Yields Value of yields
as % of total diet
0. urban 2 Fish, greens, sprouts mushrooms, ferments,
10
1. garden farming
5 Vegetables, fruit, eggs, meat, honey
20
2. urban agriculture
5 Main crop, dairy, eggs 20
3. rural farming
30 Dryland grains, legumes, oil seeds, nuts, tree crops, dairy meat,
30
4. forestry & range
50 Timber, fuel wool, meat, honey
20
© 2015 www.holmgren.com.au
LLaanndd UUssee AAllllooccaattiioonn ffoorr EEnneerrggyy DDeesscceenntt FFoooodd AAgg
Zone 3/4/5Rural/Commercial
Dryland staple grains, legumes & oil seeds
from prime arable land
Fruit, Vegetables & nursery
Domestic & wild grazing animals (meat, & dairy ) from non arable land
Poultry, Bees Rabbits
Nuts, olives & fruit tree crops
Garden farming in the household economy and commercial urban ag. produces most horticultural and small livestock products,
Broad acre farming produces most staples, larger livestock products and some tree crops for commercial sale
through local & central markets
Quadrant size is indicative product of relative area & economic value for Australian food system in energy descent
Net flow of produce to
towns, Return flow of Nutrients to
farms
Comparative advantage in non perishable low input, low yield extensive production
Comparative advantage in perishable, high input, high value, intensive production
Animals Tree Crops
Field Crops
Zone 0.Urban
Zone 1/2 Suburban Garden & Urban Ag
Aquaponics, Mushrooms
Fodder, Fibre, Fuel, Timber and other non food land uses
26
RReeffeerreenncceess aanndd RReessoouurrcceess
www.holmgren.com.au Landuse Patterns for Growing Abundance in the energy descent future History from the future: A prosperous Way Down
for Energy Descent Future Essay & Presentation Permaculture: principles & pathways beyond sustainability 2002 Future Scenarios; how communities can adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change 2008 Money vs Fossil Energy; the battle for the control of the world 2010 Energy Descent Action Planning; report to Hepburn Shire 2011 Crash On Demand; welcome to the brown tech future 2013
www.retrosuburbia.com