ADAPTATION CASE STUDY:

The importance of protected areas inprotected areas in maintaining biodiversity in a dynamic climate.

Dr. Mark AndersonDr. Mark AndersonThe Nature ConservancyUSA

Geophysical factors create

What factors create diversity?

p ythe environments and stimulate diversification.

Map shows 9 Geology ClassesAcidic sedimentaryAcidic ShaleCalcareous (limestone, dolomite) Moderately calcareousyGraniticMafic (Basalts, Anorthocite) Ultramafic (Serpentine)Surficial coarse sandSurficial fine sediment

How does geology influence diversity?

Chemical: lmussels,

amphibians

Physical:

NN

Physical:cave, sand dunes, cliffs, high elevationshigh elevations

Topographic: control the distribution of moisture, nutrients and

Mt. Mansfield Mt. Mansfield LandformsLandforms

climatic effects

Two Predictions

FINDING 1: Common speciesSpecies Richness: Actual vs. Predicted

# of Geology Types + # of Elevation Zones + Amount of Calcareous Bedrock + Maximum Hardiness Zone - Degree Longitude

9000

Number of Species per State:# of Geology classes, Latitude, Elevation range, Calcareous bedrock

NY

PA

VA

7000

8000

9000

All Species R2 = 0.953

peci

es

CTDE

MA

MD

ME

NJOH

PA

VT

WV

5000

6000

Act

ual

mbe

r of S

p

DE ME

NB NH

NS

PE

RI

3000

4000

Act

ual N

um

PE

1000

2000

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

PredictedP di t d N b f S i

A

PredictedPredicted Number of Species

G l i R t i ti f 850 R S i

FINDING 2: Rare speciesGeologic Restrictivness of 850 Rare Species

100%

Invertebrates All Species PlantsVertebrates Log. (All Species)

70%

80%

90%

speci

es

50%

60%

nt o

f all

Spec

ies

ll R

are

Sp

20%

30%

40%

Perc

ener

cent

of a

y = 0.2818Ln(x) + 0.4186R2 = 0.9889

0%

10%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Pe

Number of Geology Classes

Number of Geology Classes

FINDING 2: Rare species

Sed shale Calc Mod calc Granite Mafic Ultra Coarse Fine Total RestrictedAllAllObserved 58 25 88 95 26 9 5 86 16 408Expected 165 44 24 43 46 19 1 38 22 408O-E -107 -19 64 52 -20 -10 4 48 -6 0 p<0.000

I t0 38 13 76 85 14 4 0 37 9 276

Each geology class had 5- 86 endemic rare species. Calcareous (limestone), Ultramafic (serpentine) and coarse sand (beach duens, river banks) had many more species than expected by chance.

Species: Correlation with of physical variables 0.60 or higherAll Species Plants Vertebrates Invertebrates

# Geology types 0.8001 0.8478 0.6977 0.6383Calcareous sed/metased 0.6981 0.6716 0.6100 0.6904Coarse sediments 0.6964 0.6767 0.7822 0.6251Area of state/province 0.6049 0.5465 0.5112 0.6732pLatitude (Y_USAlb) -0.7017 -0.6708 -0.7939 -0.6500

OPPORTUNITIES: CONSERVING the STAGE

-functional extinction: chestnutchestnut, wolf, cougar, woodland caribou

-presently 31% of flora and 10% of vertebrate fauna are

Forest Cover and Population Trends in New EnglandForest Cover and Population Trends in New England

fauna are exotic

-hundreds of species range hift

60

80

100

Perc

ent

Maine

Vermont

Massachusetts

shifts

0

20

40

1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Ye ar

P

New Hampshire

Rhode Island

Connecticut

New Englandpopulation, % of 1990pop'n.

OPPORTUNITIES: CONSERVING the STAGE

Summits in the Northeast Portfolios

Mafic -lowMixed

Sedimentary

Granite

Intermediate (mafic)Sedimentary: Quartzite

Granite

%Converted || %Natural

Measuring Conservation: Geophysical patterns

Dry flatsCalc shales

Coarse SandMuds and clays

Limestone

Wet flatsLow-to-mid

Low elevationHill/valley: gentle

Acidic shaley

GraniteSideslope

Sandstone,Ultramafic

Coastal zone

Summit/ridgetopCove/footslopeHigh elevation

Mid-to-upperBasalt, Anorthocite

-0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00

Subalpine-alpineCliff/steep slope

|| %Secured

Development Agriculture CMS 1 CMS 2 CMS 3 Unprotected

KEY QUESTION: How do we identify the most resilient examples of each setting

Elevation rangeTopographic complexity

Local Connectedness Regional “pinch points”Local Connectedness Regional pinch points

Focus our protected areas

The most resilient examples of each ecosystem or “geophysical stage”geophysical stage

Steep slopes \ Cliffs

CovesSummits

Flats and gentle slopes (Forests)

&

Riparian

Tidal marsh & Beach

Rivers & Stream Freshwater wetlands

KEY QUESTION: How do we increase the adaptive capacity of the system?

Do we want fragile dioramas of the past?

OR

Living systems that adapt and change?Living systems that adapt and change?

1) Allow space for Dynamics

2) Focus conservation Function & Process

3) Nurture Sources of Recovery (soil, legacies)

4) Preserving Options: maintaining diversity and functional groups

GRACIAS!

FOLLOW UP ACTIONS

Proposed action Timing ResponsibilityDevelop a 1 year communications plan to promote understanding of protected areas in dynamic climates

By Feb 2010 Lead: Contributors

Focus our Protected Areas on:

The most resilient examples of each ecosystem or “geophysical stage”

Mid elevation Mafic/Volcanic

High elevationSedimentary ecosystem

L l ti Li t

Mafic/Volcanic ecosystem

ecosystem

Low elevation Limestoneecosystem