IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

IPC Global Partners

Acute Food Insecurity Analysis IPC

Current situation April 2012Projection April to July 2012

Presented to Livelihoods Cluster Meeting 26 April 2012 Regency Hotel, Juba

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

Methods and Key issues

-The unit of analysis is the livelihoods zones and five persons per group from the very livelihood zone are involved in the analysis. -The group consensus is reached through convergence of evidence,the data used in the analysis is from Central and State Governments, WFP, FEWSNET, FAO and NGOs located in the livelihood zone. -The IPC analytical framework and acute food insecurity reference tables are used; this provides reference outcomes and general response objectives for five phases of acute food insecurity. -The challenge is the availability of data especially the pre harvest and post harvest nutrition data

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase ClassificationPast IPC

analysis

17 Dec. 2010

December 2011 Projection Jan – March 2012

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

Seasonal CalendarMar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

Unimodal rainfall zone

Rainfall Dry season Wet season Dry season

Main crop Land preparation and planting

Growing season Harvest

Long-cycle cops

Growing season Harvest

Bimodal rainfall zone

Rainfall Dry season

Wet season Dry season

First crop Land preparation and planting

Growing season Harvest

Second crop

Land preparation and planting

Growing season Harvest

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

Key points

Food security conditions are slightly lower than normal for this time of the year with pockets that are worst than others with overall situation

comparable with 2009 - Low crop production- High market food prices- Other seasonal factors

2012 additional high concern:Civil security - conflict escalation at border

Inflation (market food prices)Projection based on most likely scenario – situation highly volatile and difficult to predict evolution of RSS-N Sudan (conflict? Scale?) and related impact on food security for population (especially at border).Worst case scenario (conflicts escalation): fs situation deteriorate dramatically

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

Projection April-July 2012

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

1. Green Belt LZ Current situation April 2012 Overall phase 2 (low levels of food insecurity) Stressed) Food availability (Fair harvest 2011 – some stocks) - No LRA activity in 2012- Inflation of the SS Pound food prices raising - Still IDPs / refugees (2011 LRA activities)- Poor access to safe water affecting food utilization and

hygiene practices- High HIV-AIDS prevalence- Significant post-harvest losses

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

1. Green Belt LZProjection April to July 2012

Overall Phase 2

- Good rain forecasted – land preparation/planting ongoing as usual- Food stocks expected to last up to June (lean season as

usual but root crops will be available)- - LRA is currently not a problem but situation to be

monitored across the border (active in 2012 DRC and CAR)

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

2. Iron Stone Plateau Current situation April 2012 Overall Phase 3

- Food Access: prices on the market increased significantly (devaluation of SSP and cost of fuel increasing)

- Raga county areas bordering Sudan – security situation volatile

- Poor access to safe water sources in several areas- Overall favorable food availability especially productive

area of Raja but less favorable in Wau (2011 production and current stocks)

- Pressure on Wau urban settings due to returnees concentration

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

2. Iron Stone PlateauProjection April – July 2012 Overall Phase 3 Lean season will last up to next harvest (August) – more people foreseen to experience food insecurity- Food Access: prices on the market report to increase

significantly (devaluation SSP and cost fuel increasing)- Pressure on Wau urban settings due to returnees

concentration will continue and might increase for new arrival

- To monitor closely security situation at the border (possible displacement- disruption of agricultural season- no access to markets etc.) Additional pressure to Wau urban settings

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

3. Hills and MountainCurrent April 2012

Overall Phase 2

- Food Access: prices on the market report to increase significantly (devaluation SSP and cost fuel increasing)

- Good harvest 2011 (good stock levels at HH and market) – supplied by Uganda

- Zone with the lowest % of HH with poor food consumption - Land preparation/planting period ongoing as usual

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

Overall Phase 2

- Good rains forecasted - Normal seasonal pattern with hunger period in

June

- Monitor closely prices on the market (inflation due to devaluation SSP and cost of fuel increasing)

3. Hills and Mountains Projected April – July 2012

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

4. Pastoral ZoneCurrent April 2012 Overall Phase 3

Food utilization limiting factor to food security (very poor handling and food storage practices)- Food availability: stocks are running low as we enter the seasonal

hunger gap.- ToT unfavorable for livestock owners (cereal prices increased)- With hunger season population relying more on markets for food

(prices are high and increasing due to SPP devaluation)- Rains started and vegetation improving (pastures for animals

available)- Insecurity especially in Pibor area due to cattle rustling practices

(displaced population) -

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

4. Pastoral ZoneProjection April – July 2012

Overall Phase 3

- Overall favorable rains forecasted for the season anticipating normal pastures conditions and water sources available.

- Food prices increase might lead to further deterioration of ToT limiting access to cereal for pastoralists

- Hunger season ongoing with seasonal food insecurity related pattern (increase number of food insecure population)

- Government actions to limit insecurity due to cattle rustling on –going (situation expected to improve)

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

5. Eastern Flood PlainsCurrent April 2012

Overall Phase 3 (! Situation could be worse without humanitarian interventions )

- Conflict on-going at the border with Sudan (both Unity and Upper Nile) – security contingency mode in place

- Bombardment are causing internal displacements - Insecurity Jonglei (cattle rustling) is also causing displacements- Food harvest 2011 in deficit - Population dependent on markets (prices high and increasing –

devaluation SSP)- Chronically high level of poor food consumption at HH level- Acute nutrition indicators “chronically high”

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

5. Eastern Flood PlainsProjection April to July 2012

Overall Phase 3- Conflicts at the border with Sudan are likely to intensify, expected high

displacements, disruption of agricultural activities, disruption of trade and higher food prices in the market(both Unity and Upper Nile) –

- Aggregation of displaced people over a short period is likely to trigger disease outbreak and poor food utilization

- Inflation and increasing fuel prices expect to negatively impact on food prices in the market

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

6. Nile Sobat corridorCurrent April 2012

Overall Phase 3 (border area 4)

- Unimodal agricultural area with fishing all over the year. - Big deficit in 2011 crop production (stocks at low levels) - Food availability is a limiting factor to food security at this moment - Food supply from North blocked (important source) since last year- Prices high and increasing due to devaluation of SSP, low food

availability - Area bordering Sudan is highly volatile with high risk of deterioration

and intensification of conflicts. - During last two weeks incidents have been reported (with causalities

and displacement)-

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

6. Nile Sobat corridorProjection April – July 2012 Overall Phase 3 (border area in 4 expanding)

- Due to conflicts high probability of disruption of agricultural season (areas near the border)

- Population displaced might increase (pressure on food security of in-country urban settings)

- June is the pick of the lean season and with food stocks already low it might be early

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

7. Western flood plainsCurrent April - June Overall Phase 3 (! Situation could be worst without humanitarian interventions – in particular Twic and Aweil Centre and West) and bordering area already in 4

- Unimodal agricultural area (land preparation period) . - Big deficit in 2011 crop production (stocks low levels) - Food

availability is a limiting factor to food security in this moment - Food supply from North blocked (important source) since last year- Prices high and increasing due to devaluation of SSP, low food

availability and blockage of border- Area bordering Sudan is highly volatile with high risk of deterioration

and intensification of conflicts. - High presence of displaced from Abyie (mostly concentrated Twic)- Concentration of returnees not settled yet (especially in Aweil)

IPCThe Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

7. Western Flood Plains Projection April – July 2012

Overall Phase 3 (! Areas) and bordering Sudan already in 4 will expand

- Situation might deteriorate at border causing disruption of agricultural production – displacement – limited access to markets

- June is the pick of the lean season and with food stocks already low it might come even earlier

- Prices will continue to increase due to devaluation of SSP, low food availability and blockage of border

- More people are expected to face food insecurity