ACT LAND AND PROPERTY REPORT - LAND …...a median price of $363,000, a median area of 450 square metres, and a median price per square metre of $832. Table 4 describes exchanges of

ACT LAND AND PROPERTY REPORTLAND SUPPLY AND POLICY BRANCHDECEMBER QUARTER 2017

2 DECEMBER QUARTER 2017

© Australian Capital Territory, Canberra 2018This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without written permission from:

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ACT LAND AND PROPERTY REPORT 3

CONTENTSPURPOSE OF THIS REPORT ...........................................................................................5

1. GREENFIELD LAND SUPPLY PIPELINE ......................................................................5

2. GREENFIELD LAND SALES ..........................................................................................9

3. MR FLUFFY SALES ...................................................................................................... 13

4. APARTMENT AND TOWNHOUSE CONSTRUCTION ............................................. 15

5. CURRENT HOUSING MARKET CONDITIONS ........................................................ 22



PURPOSE OF THIS REPORTIn this report we aim to provide insight on areas of the Canberra land and property market where the ACT Government has particular knowledge or interest.

This edition of the report includes analysis on the recent results of Mr Fluffy sales and discussion on recent market conditions and affordability.

This report is produced quarterly by the Land Strategy team within the Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate (EPSDD). We are responsible for land strategy, the Indicative Land Release Program and land economics.

1. GREENFIELD LAND SUPPLY PIPELINE

1.1 GREENFIELD LAND SUPPLY PIPELINEThe ACT Government manages a land release program that aims to provide an appropriate supply of land to developers in a timely manner.

Rural land on Canberra’s urban edge is converted into new (or “greenfield”) suburbs by passing through a series of steps coordinated by the Government and developers. We call the quantum of land going through these processes the “greenfield land supply pipeline”.

We regularly collect figures on the number of dwelling sites (or planned dwelling sites) in each stage of the greenfield land supply pipeline. The suburb-level figures for the December quarter 2017 are outlined in the below sections. The reader should note that not all dwelling sites will necessarily pass through every stage in the pipeline.

1.2 LAND IN PLANNINGLand that is undergoing planning and evaluation processes to ensure it is suitable to become part of a future greenfield suburb is said to be in the “planners’ pipeline”.

Land in the planners’ pipeline falls into three categories:

→ Zoning Ready: where land has an appropriate zoning under the Territory Plan.

→ Planning Ready: where land has an appropriate zoning and an approved Precinct Code.

→ Release Ready: where land has sufficient clearances from relevant ACT Government entities to allow estate planning to commence.


Table 1 outlines the number and location of planned dwelling sites in the planners’ pipeline. At this stage of the pipeline dwelling numbers are estimates, as the land has not yet been divided into residential blocks and sections.

Table 1: Dwellings in the ACT Planners’ Pipeline, December Quarter 2017

ZONING READY PLANNING READY RELEASE READY

BELCONNENWest Belconnen (Suburb yet to be named) 5,500 0 0

MOLONGLO VALLEYDenman Prospect 0 800 0

Molonglo Commercial Centre 4,200 0 0

Molonglo 3 (Suburb yet to be named) 9,500 0 0

WESTON CREEKWeston 400 0 0

Total 19,600 800 0

Given the above figures, we note the majority of planning and evaluation activity in the ACT is occurring in a future area of Molonglo and in West Belconnen. West Belconnen refers to the joint venture between the Suburban Land Agency (SLA) and Riverview Developments. Dwellings under this heading will form part of one of the future suburbs of Strathnairn or Macnamara.

1.3 LAND IN DEVELOPMENTLand that is undergoing estate design or is being serviced is said to be in the “developers’ pipeline”. Estate design means dividing larger blocks of land (generally rural blocks on Canberra’s urban edge) into future blocks, sections, roads and open spaces in a document called an estate development plan (EDP).

Land in the developers’ pipeline falls into five categories:

→ Released without EDP Underway: where residential blocks are released (i.e. offered to market) without the commencement of an EDP.

→ EDP Underway: where an EDP is being prepared by the SLA or by a private developer.

→ EDP Seeking Approval: where an EDP has been submitted and is awaiting approval by the ACT Planning and Land Authority (ACTPLA).

→ EDP Approved without Servicing: where an EDP has been approved by ACTPLA but works on the site have not yet commenced.

→ Land Being Serviced: where land is being physically cleared and landscaped in preparation for dwelling construction, or where new roads and utility infrastructure are being constructed.

Table 2 outlines the number and location of dwelling sites currently in the developers’ pipeline.


Table 2: Dwellings in the ACT Developers’ Pipeline, December Quarter 2017

LAND RELEASED WITHOUT EDP UNDERWAY

EDP UNDERWAY EDP SEEKING APPROVAL

EDP APPROVED WITHOUT SERVICING

LAND BEING SERVICED

GUNGAHLINJacka 0 550 0 0 0

Taylor 0 550 0 0 2,351

Throsby 0 0 0 0 1,099

BELCONNENLawson 0 0 0 959 0

Macgregor 0 300 0 0 0

Strathnairn 0 0 650 356 0

MOLONGLO VALLEYCoombs 0 0 0 0 427

Denman Prospect 1,210 0 0 0 2,516

Whitlam 1,000 1,119 0 0 0

Wright 0 0 0 0 425

Total 2,210 2,519 650 1,315 6,818

We note that the majority of estate planning activity is currently occurring in the future Molonglo suburb of Whitlam. A majority of land servicing is currently underway in the new Gungahlin suburbs of Taylor and Throsby, as well as the new Molonglo suburb of Denman Prospect.


1.4 DWELLINGS UNDER CONSTRUCTIONWhen a dwelling site has been landscaped and serviced, and a lease for the site has been issued, it is said to be in the “builders’ pipeline”.

Dwelling sites in the builders’ pipeline fall into two categories:

→ Vacant Sites: where land is landscaped and serviced but construction of a new dwelling has not yet begun.

→ Dwellings under Construction: where construction of a new dwelling is underway.

Table 3 outlines the number and location of dwelling sites currently in the builders’ pipeline.

Table 3: Dwellings in the ACT Builders’ Pipeline, December Quarter 2017

VACANT SITES DWELLINGS UNDER CONSTRUCTION

GUNGAHLINBonner 33 7

Casey 20 7

Crace 6 1

Forde 6 1

Harrison 5 2

Moncrieff 506 182

Jacka 3 1

Ngunnawal 4 4

Throsby 947 60

BELCONNENLawson 32 97

Macgregor 2 0

MOLONGLO VALLEYCoombs 944 381

Denman Prospect 2,718 42

Wright 340 4

WESTON CREEKWeston 12 0

Total 5,578 789

A majority of building activity is occurring in Molonglo, particularly in the new suburbs of Coombs and Moncrieff. There are also a substantial number of vacant dwelling sites in Molonglo that are waiting for construction to start, though we note that a substantial number of these dwellings will eventually form part of multi-unit developments.


2. GREENFIELD LAND SALES2.1 SALES OF GREENFIELD LANDVacant residential land in Canberra’s greenfield suburbs is sold by the SLA, by private sector developers, or through joint ventures between the SLA and the private sector. Prior to 2017–18 the SLA’s role was fulfilled by the Land Development Agency (LDA).

Vacant residential blocks are sold to buyers through a mixture of auctions, tenders, ballot events1 and off-the-shelf sales.

Some residential blocks sold by the SLA are offered under the ACT Government’s Land Rent Scheme. This scheme offers blocks to buyers at no initial upfront cost, but buyers must pay the Government an annual rent based on the block’s unimproved value. The analysis in this section excludes sales of blocks under the land rent scheme. However, we invite feedback from readers of this report on whether analysis on land rent blocks in future reports would be of interest.

In this section we distinguish between statistics based on exchange data and those based on settlement data. An exchange is a preliminary property transaction where the buyer and seller exchange signed contracts and the buyer pays a small deposit. A settlement is a final transaction where the buyer pays the agreed purchase price to the seller and the title to the property is transferred to the buyer. For longer timeframes we use settlement data, which allows us to be consistent between SLA and private sector activity. However, we also provide some reporting on recent SLA and Mr Fluffy exchanges.2

1 At SLA ballot events randomly-chosen prospective buyers are offered the opportunity to buy residential blocks at market value. The events are designed to increase equity

and affordability by allowing buyers to buy blocks in high-demand areas without the risk of being outbid.

2 For this section we have drawn on the SLA’s database of exchange and settlement data (for land sold by the LDA/SLA) as well as Access Canberra’s Territory-wide database

of settlement data. Access Canberra settlement data was supplied by ACT Treasury Macroeconomic Branch.


2.2 RECENT SLA SALES RESULTSIn the 12 months to the end of the December quarter 2017 the SLA exchanged a total of 431 standard detached residential blocks (excluding public housing and land rent blocks). These had a median price of $363,000, a median area of 450 square metres, and a median price per square metre of $832.

Table 4 describes exchanges of single residential SLA greenfield blocks over the past 12 months.

Table 4: SLA Detached Residential Block Sales, 12 Months to December 2017

SUBURB MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE PER SQUARE METRE

MEDIAN AREA BLOCKS SOLD

Taylor $353,000 $796 450 271

Throsby $396,000 $952 437 158

Moncrieff $240,000 $470 511 1

Lawson $429,400 $695 618 1

During this period the SLA also exchanged several large blocks for the construction of multi-unit developments in greenfield suburbs. However, multi-unit releases are not the focus of this section.

2.3 SLA TIME FROM EXCHANGE TO SETTLEMENTThe median number of months between when contracts of sale for an SLA residential block are exchanged and when these blocks are settled can be plotted over time (see Figure 1). The median amount of time between exchange and settlement for single residential blocks sold has averaged around 11 months in the past three years. It should be noted there is a high degree of volatility in these results from quarter to quarter, though overall the median period of time is trending downwards.

Figure 1: Median Period of Time from Exchange to Settlement, Detached Residential, LDA/SLA Transactions

2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

5

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

15

10

20

25

MED

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QUARTER OF SETTLEMENT


2.4 RECENT PRIVATE SECTOR AND JOINT VENTURE SALES RESULTS

In the 12 months to the end of the December quarter 2017 the Capital Airport Group settled on 88 vacant detached residential blocks in Denman Prospect. These had a median price of $488,000 and a median price per square metre of $917.

In the 12 months to the end of the December quarter 2017 the Ginninderry joint venture between the SLA and Riverview Developments exchanged 124 detached residential blocks in the new West Belconnen suburb

of Strathnairn. These had a median price of $286,000, a median area of 424 square metres, and a median price per square metre of $668. The reader should note these statistics include some exchanges of “flexi-living” blocks on which houses are built to the block boundary but remain on separate titles.

2.5 PRICE TRENDS BY SUBURBFigures 2 and 3 show the price and price per square metre for detached residential blocks settled over time for individual greenfield suburbs (including SLA, private and joint venture suburbs). It compares this to the market median for all greenfield suburbs.

Figure 2: Median Price of a Detached Residential Block in ACT Greenfield Suburbs

$50,000

$300,000

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 (YTD)

$150,000

$400,000

$100,000

$350,000

$200,000

$450,000

$250,000

$500,000

MED

IAN

SET

TLEM

ENT

PRIC

E

WRIGHT

CRACE

FORDE

CASEY

MACGREGOR

NGUNNAWAL

LAWSON

MONCRIEFF

DENMAN PROSPECT

THROSBY

TAYLOR

GREENFIELD SUBURBS MEDIAN

Note: individual suburbs medians included for years where there were at least 50 settlements


Figure 3: Median Price per Square Metre of a Detached Residential Block in ACT Greenfield Suburbs

$200

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 (YTD)

$600

$400

$800

$1,000

$1,200

MED

IAN

SET

TLEM

ENT

PRIC

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WRIGHT

CRACE

FORDE

CASEY

MACGREGOR

NGUNNAWAL

LAWSON

MONCRIEFF

DENMAN PROSPECT

THROSBY

TAYLOR

GREENFIELD SUBURBS MEDIAN

Note: individual suburbs medians included for years where there were at least 50 settlements

The median price and price per square metre for a standard residential block rose sharply in 2016–17. This was due to a large number of settlements in the high-value suburbs of Denman Prospect and Throsby, and relatively few transactions in lower-cost areas.

A very high number of sales were also settled in the lower-cost area of Moncrieff in 2015–16, making the overall median price for residential land in this year below the overall trend. This fact also contributes to the appearance of a dramatic rise in median price in 2016–17.

A large number of sales have also been settled in Throsby in the current financial year to date. This has kept the overall median price for detached residential land high in the current financial year to date.

Detailed information on the price of detached residential land for the past five financial years, including median price and median price per square metre by suburb, is at Appendix 1.

2.6 COMPARISON OF SLA AND PRIVATE SALES OF GREENFIELD LAND

In 2016–17, blocks sold by the LDA/SLA have settled at a somewhat higher median price per square metre than blocks sold by private developers. In 2015–16 the opposite was true. The difference between the median price of SLA-sold and privately-sold blocks is negligible in the current financial year to date. Overall, there does not appear to be a significant difference between the release types. We also note the SLA expects a number of lower-price blocks in Taylor to be settled this financial year, which may bring the final median for 2017–18 below that of the private sector.

The reader should note that other than the new suburb of Strathnairn (where no blocks have yet been settled), Crace is the most recent greenfield suburb to be developed by a joint venture, and most new blocks in this suburb were settled by the end of 2013–14. Figure 4 summarises differences in median prices per square metre for residential land sold by the different sectors.

Figure 4: Comparison of Median Price per Metre Squared for SLA/LDA, Private and Joint Venture Land Releases

$500

$700

$600

$800

$900

$1,000

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 (YTD)


3. MR FLUFFY SALES3.1 MR FLUFFY SALESAs of January 2018:3

→ 1,023 Canberra properties are known to have been affected by Mr Fluffy;

→ 1,008 owners of affected properties are participating (or have already participated) in the Asbestos Response Taskforce’s (the Taskforce’s) buyback and demolition programs;

→ 902 affected dwellings have been demolished through the Taskforce’s programs;

→ 42 properties decontaminated through the Taskforce’s programs have been repurchased by former owners, with further 520 properties purchased by the Canberra community and 5 properties purchased by ACT Government.

Many of the Mr Fluffy blocks that have been resold are quite large, with a median area of 853 square metres for all blocks sold in all years.

Table 5 outlines key information on Mr Fluffy blocks sold through the Taskforce’s programs. Note that in 2015–16 sales were only conducted from April to June.

Table 5: Key Statistics on Mr Fluffy Blocks Sold through Taskforce Programs

FINANCIAL YEAR MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE PER SQUARE METRE


2015-16 $588,500 $656 860 36

2016-17 $660,000 $749 850 320

2017-18 (YTD) $640,000 $708 856 186

In the twelve months to the end of the December quarter 2017 the most expensive Mr Fluffy blocks sold through the Taskforce’s programs (excluding suburbs with fewer than 5 sales) were in Griffith, Deakin, O’Connor, Garran and Ainslie. The least expensive blocks sold were in Latham, Evatt, Macgregor, Kambah and Holt. Table 6 outlines sales activity in these suburbs in this year.

3 Asbestos Response Taskforce website (http://www.asbestostaskforce.act.gov.au/).


Table 6: Mr Fluffy Sales in Most and Least Expensive Suburbs, 12 Months to Q2 2017–18

MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE PER SQUARE METRE


MOST EXPENSIVEGriffith $1,400,000 $1,247 1186 6

Deakin $1,150,000 $1,422 784 5

O’Connor $905,000 $1,191 844 10

Garran $900,000 $989 859 13

Ainslie $832,500 $1,108 708 8

LEAST EXPENSIVELatham $425,000 $485 898 16

Evatt $424,000 $539 790 8

Macgregor $420,000 $441 904 11

Kambah $410,000 $509 787 29

Holt $365,001 $507 790 11

The median price per square metre for a resold Mr Fluffy block is lower than the median price per square metre for a residential block in a SLA greenfield suburb. In 2016–17 the median price per square metre for a vacant Mr Fluffy block was $749, as compared to $938 for an SLA greenfield block. This difference continues to be somewhat surprising and highlights the premium that home owners appear to place on greenfield suburbs.


4. APARTMENT AND TOWNHOUSE CONSTRUCTION4.1 MULTI-UNIT SUPPLY PIPELINE4

In the December quarter 2017 a total of 58 multi-unit development sites were under construction in Canberra, for a total of 4,768 units.

In addition, a total of 116 multi-unit sites were in various stages of planning, for a total of 11,569 units.

Figures 5 and 6 show recent movements in multi-unit planning and construction activity in the ACT. The charts show that although construction activity was increasing at the start of the last financial year, it has declined slightly over the past 9 months. However, planning activity has increased strongly during the same period with the number of units currently in planning reaching unprecedented highs. This increase in planning activity suggests developers remain optimistic about the multi-unit market.

Figure 5: Number of Multi-Unit Sites in Planning and Under Construction

20

60

40

80

100

140

120

NU

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TS

2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Figure 6: Number of Multi-Unit Sites in Planning and Under Construction

2,000

6,000

4,000

8,000

10,000

14,000

12,000

NU

MBE

R O

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S

2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

4 Data in this section is sourced from Colliers Australia. Colliers advises that the data excludes multi-unit developments of less than 10 units

and covers around 90 per cent of total supply.


4.2 RECENT MULTI-UNIT ACTIVITYIn the December quarter 2017 a total of 20 multi-unit development sites were completed in Canberra, for a total of 1,634 units.

Also during this quarter:

→ Planning began on 12 new sites, for a total of 904 units;

→ 5 sites already in planning had their development applications approved, for a total of 222 units.

→ 12 sites previously in planning commenced construction, for a total of 1,299 units.

In addition to the 20 sites completed in the December quarter, a further 36 are scheduled for completion by the end of the June quarter 2018, for a total of 2,441 units.

Table 7 outlines the total completions currently known or expected for 2017–18.

4.3 GEOGRAPHICAL PATTERN OF DEVELOPMENT

A majority of multi-unit activity currently underway in Canberra is occurring north of Lake Burley Griffin. Activity is particularly concentrated in and around the City, the Gungahlin and Belconnen Town Centres, and the Light Rail Stage 1 corridor (refer maps at Figures 7–9 overleaf).

In the December quarter 2017 a total of 81 multi-unit development sites (for 7,923 units) were in planning north of the lake, with a further 42 sites (for 3,708 units) under construction. For the same period a total of 35 sites (for 3,646 units) were in planning south of the lake, with a further 16 sites (for 1,060 units) under construction.

Table 8 provides a breakdown of sites and dwellings by district.


Table 7: Actual and Forecast Multi-Unit Site Completions in the ACT, 2017–18

QUARTER CONSTRUCTION COMPLETE (SITES)

CONSTRUCTION COMPLETE (DWELLINGS)

September Quarter 2017 (actual) 13 1,093

December Quarter 2017 (actual) 20 1,634

March Quarter 2018 (forecast) 18 672

June Quarter 2018 (forecast) 18 1,769

Table 8: Multi-Unit Sites and Dwellings in Planning and Under Construction, December Quarter 2017

DISTRICT TOTAL SITES

IN PLANNING UNDER CONSTRUCTION

TOTAL SITES TOTAL DWELLINGS TOTAL SITES TOTAL DWELLINGSNorth of Lake Burley Griffin

Belconnen 21 2,262 8 427

Gungahlin 28 1,393 13 1,197

Inner North 32 4,268 21 2,084

South of Lake Burley Griffin

Inner South 9 658 5 441

Molonglo 10 366 7 467

Tuggeranong 8 973 2 83

Weston Creek 3 51 0 0

Woden Valley 4 1,569 2 69

Jerrabombera 1 29 0 0

Total All Disticts 116 11,569 58 4,768


Figure 7: Multi-Unit Dwellings in Planning, Total Dwellings, December Quarter 2017

M O L O N G L OV A L L E Y

Q U E A N B E Y A N

T U G G E R A N O N G

B E L C O N N E N

W O D E NVA L L E Y

G U N G A H L I N

G U N G A H L I N7 6 7

T H R O S B Y2 4 4

N G U N N A W A L1 0

M O N C R I E F F1 6 8

T A Y L O R2 0 4

W A T S O N8 8

D O W N E R1 0 6

D I C K S O N1 0 1 5

B R A D D O N2 8 7

R E I D2 5 8

C A M P B E L L1 0 3

P A R K E S8 3 0

C I T Y9 3 4

K I N G S O N4 2 7

G R I F F I T H8 7

R E D H I L L1 4 4

L Y N E H A M5 3 3

K A L E E N6 6

B E L C O N N E N1 9 8 9

B R U C E1 0 2

A R A N D A1 2

O ’ C O N N O R2 0

T U R N E R4 0

H O L T8 3

H I G G I N S1 0

O A K S E S T A T E

2 9

D E N M A NP R O S P E C T

2 3 8

W R I G H T2 6

C O O M B S1 0 2

H O L D E R1 6

W E S T O N1 5

C H A P M A N2 0

P H I L L I P1 5 6 9

G R E E N W A Y9 7 3

0-200

201-400

401-600

601-800

801-1,000

>1,000


Figure 8: Multi-Unit Dwellings under Construction, Total Dwellings, December Quarter 2017


Q U E A N B E Y A N


B E L C O N N E N

W O D E NVA L L E Y

G U N G A H L I N


B O N N E R1 1

M O N C R I E F F2 6 6

C A S E Y3 5

A M A R O O1 4 2

H O L T1 2

L A W S O N1 2 5

M A C Q U A R I E1 7 7

D I C K S O N2 5 1

B R A D D O N7 8 0

C I T Y3 9 4

B E L C O N N E N2 4

O ’ C O N N O R2 7

T U R N E R2 3 4

L Y N E H A M4 2

B R U C E8 9


K I N G S O N3 1 4

G R I F F I T H9 7

F O R R E S T3 0

D E N M A NP R O S P E C T

1 6

W R I G H T7 8

C O O M B S3 7 3

P H I L L I P5 9

C H I F L E Y1 0

G R E E N W A Y8 3

0-100

101-200

201-300

301-400

>500


Figure 9: Multi-Unit Dwellings Completed in Quarter, Total Dwellings, December Quarter 2017


F R A N K L I N2 9

L Y N E H A M1 4

L A W S O N2 6 3

B E L C O N N E N1 4

M A C Q U A R I E1 2

D I C K S O N1 2 5

T U R N E R2 6

B R A D D O N6 2


B A R T O N1 7 1

G R I F F I T H7 0P H I L L I P

1 0 5

C O O M B S8 3

G R E E N W A Y2 7 6

G O R D O N2 4


Q U E A N B E Y A N


B E L C O N N E N

W O D E NVA L L E Y

G U N G A H L I N

C E N T R A LC A N B E R R A

0-50

51-100

101-150

151-200

201-250

>250


4.4 TYPES OF DEVELOPMENTThe majority of multi-unit activity currently underway in Canberra appears to be for high density apartment buildings, with considerably less development of medium density apartment buildings and townhouses.5

Table 9 outlines the number of multi-unit development sites and units in planning and under construction in the December quarter 2017, separated by product type.

Table 9: Multi-Unit Sites and Dwellings by Product Type, December Quarter 2017

PRODUCT TYPE IN PLANNING UNDER CONSTRUCTION

TOTAL SITES TOTAL DWELLINGS TOTAL SITES TOTAL DWELLINGS

High Density Apartment Buildings

45 8,671 29 3,726

Medium Density Apartment Buildings

27 1,048 12 332

Townhouses 35 848 16 683

No Data 9 1,002 1 27

For the purpose of this section we have adopted the following broad categories of multi-unit product types:

→ High Density Apartment Buildings — This category includes apartment buildings that are either greater than three stories, or have three stories spread over a considerable area, for a considerable number of units in a single building.

→ Medium Density Apartment Buildings — This category includes apartment buildings that are generally three stories (occasionally four) with a limited number of units and a lower level of density than high density apartment buildings. Developments that are a mix of townhouses and apartments are included in this category.

→ Townhouses — This category includes both high and low density townhouse products. We kept townhouses as a single category for this report, but invite feedback from readers of this report on whether more detailed reporting on townhouses would be of interest.

The ACT Government takes a keen interest on whether current patterns of residential development meet the needs and expectations of Canberra’s diverse and growing population. In November 2017 we released the Housing Choices Discussion Paper6 as a basis for community discussion on this issue, followed by a four-month consultation period ending in March 2018.7

4.5 DEVELOPMENT ON GOVERNMENT LAND RELEASE SITESIn the December quarter 2017 around 60 per cent of multi-unit planning activity and 60 per cent of construction activity occurred on land released through the ACT Government’s Indicative Land Release Program (ILRP). The remainder of multi-unit planning and construction activity occurred on residential land purchased privately by developers. Such developments are often called “private infill”.

The share of multi-unit development occurring on land released through the ILRP is currently quite high due to a number of recent sales facilitated through the Commonwealth Government’s Asset Recycling Initiative (ARI). In coming years private infill sites will form a larger proportion of multi-unit developments.

5 Note that it is possible our data does not include a number of smaller developments taking place across Canberra, especially those with fewer than 10 dwellings.

6 ACT Government, Housing Choices Discussion Paper, November 2017, <https://www.yoursay.act.gov.au/application/files/2315/1028/1056/2017_Housing_Choices_

Discussion_Paper_3Nov2017.pdf>.

7 Further information is available at <https://www.yoursay.act.gov.au/housing-choices>.

https://www.yoursay.act.gov.au/application/files/2315/1028/1056/2017_Housing_Choices_Discussion_Paper_3Nov2017.pdf

https://www.yoursay.act.gov.au/application/files/2315/1028/1056/2017_Housing_Choices_Discussion_Paper_3Nov2017.pdf

https://www.yoursay.act.gov.au/housing-choices


5. CURRENT HOUSING MARKET CONDITIONS5.1 HOUSE AND UNIT PRICESIn the December quarter 2017 the median price of a free standing house settled in the ACT was $705,000, an increase of 13.7 per cent from the previous 12 months. In the same quarter, the median price of settled units (including townhouses) was $450,000, an increase of 1.1 per cent from the previous 12 months. Figure 10 outlines the change in the median price of houses and units since the start of 2012–13.

Figure 10: Median Settlement Prices of Houses and Units, ACT

$100,000

$300,000

$200,000

$400,000

$500,000

$700,000

$800,000

$600,000

MED

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PRI

CE

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

In the past five years unit prices have shown slow growth relative to house prices. It is likely that this trend will continue given the substantial forthcoming supply of multi-unit dwellings in Canberra (see Section 4).

There appears to be a greater degree of price variability in the housing market than the multi-unit market. Figure 11 shows the distribution of prices for houses and units settled in the 12 months to the end of December quarter 2017, and Table 10 shows the number of properties settled in each price range. The tendency of unit prices to lie closer to the median may partly be a result of a large number of settlements in new, mid-priced multi-unit developments over the past 12 months.

Figure 11: Price Distribution of House and Unit Settlements, 12 Months to December 2017

5%

15%

10%

20%

25%

35%

30%

$0-$200K $201K-$300K $301K-$400K $401K-$500K $501K-$600K $601K-$700K $701K-$800K $801K-$900K $901K-$1M $1M-$1.1M $1.1M-$1.2M >$1.2M

PRO

PORT

ION

OF

TOTA

L IN

EA

CH P

RICE

CAT

EGO

RY

UNIT MEDIAN ($443,000)

HOUSE MEDIAN ($668,000)

Table 10: House and Unit Settlements by Price Category, 12 Months to December 2017


PRICE RANGE HOUSES (SETTLEMENTS)

HOUSES (% OF TOTAL)

UNITS (SETTLEMENTS)

UNITS (% OF TOTAL)

$0-$200k - - 32 0.6%

$201k-$300k - - 505 10.0%

$301k-$400k 83 2.1% 1380 27.3%

$401k-$500k 614 15.4% 1447 28.7%

$501k-$600k 811 20.4% 730 14.5%

$601k-$700k 763 19.2% 380 7.5%

$701k-$800k 586 14.7% 211 4.2%

$801k-$900k 382 9.6% 128 2.5%

$901k-$1.0m 236 5.9% 72 1.4%

$1.0m-$1.1m 110 2.8% 46 0.9%

$1.1m-$1.2m 88 2.2% 26 0.5%

$1.2m-$1.3m 75 1.9% 29 0.6%

$1.3m-$1.4m 59 1.5% 22 0.4%

$1.4m-$1.5m 42 1.1% 13 0.3%

> $1.5m 129 3.2% 25 0.5%

Total 3,978 100.0% 5,046 100.0%

24 DECEMBER QUARTER 2017 ACT LAND AND PROPERTY REPORT 25

APPENDIX 1 RESIDENTIAL GREENFIELD LAND INFORMATION

Table 1: Standard Residential Block Settlements, Median Prices, 2012–13 to 2017–18 (YTD)

DISTRICT BELCONNEN GUNGAHLIN MOLONGLO ALL GREENFIELD SUBURBS

SUBURB MACGREGOR LAWSON BONNER JACKA FORDE CRACE MONCRIEFF NGUNNAWAL CASEY THROSBY TAYLOR COOMBS DENMAN PROSPECT

WRIGHT

Development Type

Joint SLA SLA SLA Joint Joint SLA Private Private SLA SLA SLA Private SLA

2012-13 $195,000 - $217,500 $230,500 $255,000 $288,500 - $230,000 $252,000 - - - - $379,750 $265,750

2013-14 $205,000 - - - $290,000 $315,000 - $225,000 $190,000 - - $375,000 - - $240,000

2014-15 - $468,000 - - - $330,500 - $230,000 $280,000 - - $369,500 - - $315,000

2015-16 - $423,000 - - - - $241,000 $230,000 $326,000 - - $484,000 - - $246,000

2016-17 - - - - - - $237,000 - $402,500 $425,000 - - $440,000 - $410,000

2017-18 (YTD) - - - - - - - - - $370,800 $352,000 - $488,500 - $375,000

Note: suburb medians only included for years in which there were 10 or more settlements.

Table 2: Standard Residential Block Settlements, Median Prices per Square Metre, 2012–13 to 2017–18 (YTD)

DISTRICT BELCONNEN GUNGAHLIN MOLONGLO ALL GREENFIELD SUBURBS

SUBURB MACGREGOR LAWSON BONNER JACKA FORDE CRACE MONCRIEFF NGUNNAWAL CASEY THROSBY TAYLOR COOMBS DENMAN PROSPECT

WRIGHT

Development Type

Joint SLA SLA SLA Joint Joint SLA Private Private SLA SLA SLA Private SLA

2012-13 $512 - $462 $501 $585 $593 - $524 $552 - - - - $720 $570

2013-14 $491 - - - $594 $602 - $524 $671 - - $633 - - $586

2014-15 - $870 - - - $600 - $594 $578 - - $643 - - $630

2015-16 - $805 - - - - $519 $668 $632 - - $750 - - $538

2016-17 - - - - - - $538 - $720 $963 - - $800 - $853

2017-18 (YTD) - - - - - - - - - $1,000 $781 - $925 - $934

Note: suburb medians only included for years in which there were 10 or more settlements.

© Australian Capital Territory, Canberra 2018This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without written permission from:

Director-General, Environment and Planning Directorate, ACT Government, GPO Box 158, Canberra ACT 2601.

Telephone: 02 6207 1923 Website: www.environment.act.gov.au

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