ACORE Renewable Energy Resources

8/9/2019 ACORE Renewable Energy Resources

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2007 Joint Outlook onRenewable Energy in America

U.S. Energy Collaborative Analysis Initiat iveWorkshop

Washington, DC June 27, 2007

Michael Eckhart, PresidentAmerican Council On Renewable Energy

www.acore.org


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Topics

1. 2007 Joint Outlook2. Outlook on Key RE Markets

Wind Geothermal

Hydro CSP Solar PV Biomass

Biofuels3. Analytical Issues


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ACOREs Policy WorkPhase II of Renewable Energy in America

Phase I: Development

25 Years 1975 2000

Focus on RD&D

Develop Technologies:

Wind

Solar

Hydro

Geothermal

Ocean

Biomass

Biofuels Commercialization

Method: push

Lead: Federal

Phase II: Utilization

25 Years 2000 - 2025

Focus on National Needs

Implement Solutions:

National energy supply

National security

Environment

Climate change

Economic growth

Investment

Jobs Scale-up

Method: pull

Lead: State / Federal


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Policy Conference

Phase II of Renewable Energy in AmericaNovember 30, 2006

Cannon Caucus Room, Washington, DC


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Outlook On Renewable Energy in America

18 Participating Organizations:

Trade Associations: American Wind Energy Association Biomass Coordinating Council Geothermal Energy Association National Biodiesel Board National Hydropower Association Ocean Energy Council

Renewable Fuels Association Solar Energy Industries Association

Nonprofit Groups and Universities: American Solar Energy Society Apollo Alliance Energy Future Coalition 25x25 Union of Concerned Scientists University of California at Berkeley Worldwatch Institute

Research Institutions: National Renewable Energy Laboratory Electric Power Research Institute

Government: Department of Energy Energy Information Administration

www.acore.org


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2007 Joint Outlook on RE in America

Technically Feasibly

Renewable Electricityby 2025:

Wind Power 248 GW

Solar Energy and Power 164 GWWater Power 23 GWGeothermal Energy and Power 100 GWBiomass energy, fuels and Power 100 GW

Total Renewable Electricity 635 GW

PLUS. 30% of motor fuelsfrom renewable fuels by 2030.


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Solar PV

Technology Solutions

Maturing of Renewable EnergyTechnologies A Pipel ine

Hydro

Wind

Biomass

Biodiesel

CellulosicEthanol

Solar Thermal

MSW/Landfill Gas

Geothermal

Ocean/Wave

Corn Ethanol

Source: Goldman Sachs

FUELS

ELECTRICITY


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Wind Power

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Sources: AWEA (actual) and ACORE (forecast)

US Wind Power Installations(MW/Year)

Outlook: 248 GW by 2025


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Geothermal Energy and PowerTechnology Transfer !

Geothermal Power:3,600 MW in operation3,000 MW in development100,000 MW mid-term future

Vision: 500,000 MW potential, displacing coal as baseload power


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Hydropower

72,000 MWin place

+ 23,000 MW

incremental hydro

+ 90,000 MWtotal water power

Ocean Kinetic power


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Concentrating Solar Power

Solar Dish-Sterling:850 MW Contracts

500 MW Letter of Intent

Solar Trough:64 MW Newly Completed

3,000+ MW Proposed

Outlook:1 GW/Year


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Solar PV

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990 1995 2000 2005

World

U.S.

Global Solar PV Installations(MW/Year)

Outlook: 164 GW by 2025


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BiomassEnergy

Outlook to 2025:

Industrial CHP: 57 GW

Wholesale power: 37 GW

Solid Waste: 10 GW


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Ethanol110 Biorefineries + 73 projects under Construction

+ 8 Under Expansion in 19 States

Ethanol

Million Gallons / Year

MTBE replacement done

Now blend up to 10% Demand for ethanol? E85?

Flex fuel vehicles? President says 35 BGY by 2017

Senate Bill says 36 BGY by 2020

LT goal = 30% of motor fuels

0

2 0 0 0

4 0 0 0

6 0 0 0

8 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0

1 2 0 0 0

1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0

2007 Outlook

2005 RFS

Actual


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Revolutionary Opportunity at our DoorstepBiofuels + Hybrid Engines

2003 Toyota Prius47 mpg

50 100 mpg of fuel by Hybrid Vehicles

300600 mpg of gasoline when running E8510x to 20x improvement

2006 Toyota Prius51 mpg


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Analytic Issues(Basic) Modeling / forecasting

REMAP Environment / Climate Economic inputs

analysis:

Resources Capital Jobs

Economic impactsanalysis: Economic growth Tax effects International trade


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Analytic Issues(Continued)

Policy Alternatives:

Technology programs

Incentive programs

Regulation / mandates

Net-Net Analysis: RE/RF vs. oil, gas, coal RE vs. Nuclear for low-

carbon future

Social Impacts: Health / lifetime

Military

Other


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Thank You

be a member

www.acore.orgwww.acore.org

Michael EckhartAmerican Council On

Renewable [email protected]

Documents

ACORE Renewable Energy Resources