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ACM 97
Computing Computing AlternativesAlternatives
Joel BirnbaumJoel BirnbaumHewlett-Packard Senior VP R&D, Hewlett-Packard Senior VP R&D, Director, HP LabsDirector, HP Labs
ACM 97
ACM 97ACM 97THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF
COMPUTING
ACM 97
ACM 97ACM 97
Copyright Copyright 1997 ACM, Association for Computing 1997 ACM, Association for Computing
The files on this disk or server have been provided by ACM. Copyright and all rights therein are maintained The files on this disk or server have been provided by ACM. Copyright and all rights therein are maintained by ACM. It is understood that all persons copying this information will adhere to the terms and constraints by ACM. It is understood that all persons copying this information will adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by ACM’s copyright. These works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of ACM. invoked by ACM’s copyright. These works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of ACM. Reuse and/or reposting for noncommercial classroom use is permitted. Questions regarding usage rights Reuse and/or reposting for noncommercial classroom use is permitted. Questions regarding usage rights and permissions may be addressed to: [email protected] permissions may be addressed to: [email protected]
THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTINGTHE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING
ACM 97
James BurkeJames Burke
Master of CeremoniesMaster of Ceremonies
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ACM 97JOEL BIRNBAUM
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Computing Alternatives
Joel BirnbaumHewlett-Packard Senior VP R&D, Director, HP Labs
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Quantum Computing DNA-based Computing Optical Computing
Three Alternatives
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ENIAC Circa 1947
Source: U.S. Army photo
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ENIAC Vital Statistics Physical Characteristics
19,000 vacuum tubes, 1,500 relays 60,000 pounds, 16,200 cubic feet 174 kilowatts 5 kflops (~ same as Intel 4004)
Future Prediction (1949 Popular Mechanics)
1,500 vacuum tubes 3,000 pounds 10 kilowatts
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ENIAC Vital Statistics Physical Characteristics
19,000 vacuum tubes, 1,500 relays 60,000 pounds, 16,200 cubic feet 174 kilowatts 5 kflops (~ same as Intel 4004)
Future Prediction (1949 Popular Mechanics)
1,500 vacuum tubes 3,000 pounds 10 kilowatts
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Moore’s Law
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000103
104
105
106
107
108
109
Date
Tra
nsi
sto
rs p
er C
hip
4004
8080
8086
80286 80386
80486
Pentium
Pentium Pro
80786
2004 2008
?
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Moore’s Law
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000103
104
105
106
107
108
109
Date
Tra
nsi
sto
rs p
er C
hip
4004
8080
8086
80286 80386
80486
Pentium
Pentium Pro
80786
2004 2008
?
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Vanishing Electrons
198810-1
Date
Ele
ctro
ns
per
Dev
ice
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
100
101
102
103
104
16M64M
256M1G
4G16G
Transistors per Chip
Source: Motorola
?
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Quantum Dots: (Ge Islands on Si)
Length (microns)
0.20.4
0.6
20
0
-20
Hei
gh
t (n
m)
0.8
Average Height: 15nm
Standard Dev.: <1nm
Density: 6.4 x 109 /cm2
Source: HP Labs Quantum Structures Research Initiative
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Quantum Dots: (Ge Islands on Si)
Length (microns)
0.20.4
0.6
20
0
-20
Hei
gh
t (n
m)
0.8
Average Height: 15nm
Standard Dev.: <1nm
Density: 6.4 x 109 /cm2
Source: HP Labs Quantum Structures Research Initiative
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Quantum Dots: (Ge Islands on Si)
Length (microns)
0.20.4
0.6
20
0
-20
Hei
gh
t (n
m)
0.8
Average Height: 15nm
Standard Dev.: <1nm
Density: 6.4 x 109 /cm2
Source: HP Labs Quantum Structures Research Initiative
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Computational Complexity
Input Size L
Exe
cuti
on
Tim
e
Exp(L)
Ln
L
Exp
NP
P
Efficiency of an algorithm depends on how its executiontime grows as the size of the problem (input) increases...
Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University
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Difficulty in FactoringNumber N of L decimal digits: N is of the order 10L
The trial division method: dividing N by 2,3,5... N1/2
Number of divisions required: N1/2 = 10L/2
Grows Exponentially with LIf a computer can perform 1010 divisions per second,factoring a 100 decimal digit number with this methodtakes 1040 seconds, much longer than the age of theuniverse (1017 seconds)
Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University
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Difficulty in FactoringNumber N of L decimal digits: N is of the order 10L
The trial division method: dividing N by 2,3,5... N1/2
Number of divisions required: N1/2 = 10L/2
Grows Exponentially with LIf a computer can perform 1010 divisions per second,factoring a 100 decimal digit number with this methodtakes 1040 seconds, much longer than the age of theuniverse (1017 seconds)
Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University
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ACM 97
Difficulty in FactoringNumber N of L decimal digits: N is of the order 10L
The trial division method: dividing N by 2,3,5... N1/2
Number of divisions required: N1/2 = 10L/2
Grows Exponentially with LIf a computer can perform 1010 divisions per second,factoring a 100 decimal digit number with this methodtakes 1040 seconds, much longer than the age of theuniverse (1017 seconds)
Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University
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The Traveling Salesman Problem:
To find the shortest path from start to end goingthrough all the points only once.
0
3
4
1
6
52
Source: Dr. Leonard M. Adleman
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Step 1:Generate random paths Randomly ligate together
pieces of DNA
DNA Ligase
01
2 3
4 5 6
0
1
0 1 12 3 4 6
1 2 3 4 5
2 3 4
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Step 2:Keep only paths startingwith 0 and ending with 6
Use the Polymerase ChainReaction
PCR 0-6
0 1 12 3 4 6
0 1 13 2 4 6
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4
0 2 64
0 1 43 5 6
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0 1 2 3 4 6
Step 3:
PAGE
Keep only paths that enterexactly 7 vertices
Separate the PCR productsby PAGE
5
0 1 2 3 4 65
0 2 4 6
0 1 2 45 65
0 1 2 45 65
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Step 4:
Affinity Purification
0 1 2 3 4 65
Keep only paths that enterall 7 vertices at least once
Isolate DNA by sequentialaffinity purification
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 1 2 45 65
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Hybrid Fourier Transform Processor
Laser
CollimatingLens
SpatialLight
Modulator
OutputPlane
Digital To Computer
Digital FromComputer
Creates a coherent,monochromatic lightsource
Incoming lightcreates desiredinput object
performsFourier Transform
Incoming lightcreates desiredinput object
performsFourier Transform
Creates a coherent,monochromatic lightsource
OpticalSystem
ACM 97
ACM 97
Hybrid Fourier Transform Processor
Laser
CollimatingLens
SpatialLight
Modulator
OutputPlane
Digital To Computer
Digital FromComputer
Creates a coherent,monochromatic lightsource
Incoming lightcreates desiredinput object
performsFourier Transform
Incoming lightcreates desiredinput object
performsFourier Transform
Creates a coherent,monochromatic lightsource
OpticalSystem
ACM 97
ACM 97
Hybrid Fourier Transform Processor
Laser
CollimatingLens
SpatialLight
Modulator
OutputPlane
Digital To Computer
Digital FromComputer
Creates a coherent,monochromatic lightsource
Incoming lightcreates desiredinput object
performsFourier Transform
Incoming lightcreates desiredinput object
performsFourier Transform
Creates a coherent,monochromatic lightsource
OpticalSystem
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The Future:
Communicate with Photons,
but Compute with Electrons
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ACM 97JOEL BIRNBAUM
