Accuracy is not enough_Final_03-25-16_R Keenan

Accuracy is not EnoughA Systems Thinking Perspective

Russell Keenan, PMP

Track D – Environmental / Session 7Measurement Science Conference, March 25, 2016

Disneyland Hotel, Anaheim, California

2016 Measurement Science Conference, March 25, 2016 2

Accuracy is the twin brother of honesty; inaccuracy, of dishonesty.

- Nathaniel Hawthorne (1804 – 1864)


Presentation OutlineExploring “Accuracy” “Systems Thinking” ConceptsExamples of Systems ThinkingCharacteristics of Systems ThinkingTools for Systems ThinkingWrap-up


What is Accuracy?*ac·cu·ra·cy (ˈakyərəsē)Noun: Accuracy

The quality or state of being correct or precise.synonyms: correctness, precision, preciseness, exactness, exactitude

Technical: the degree to which the result of a measurement, calculation, or specification conforms to the correct value or a standard.

* Definition from Google



What is Accuracy?

Fast is fine, but accuracy is everything. – Wyatt Earp (1882 – 1929)


What is Accuracy?

Watch every detail that affects the accuracy of your work.

– Arthur C. Nielsen (1897 – 1980)


What is Accuracy?The difference between mediocrity and

excellence is attention to detail. – Anonymous

Two possible meanings:1. Face value: if you don’t pay attention to details your work will be mediocre.

2. Deeper meaning: Obsessing on details (perfectionism) is another path to mediocrity.


Why isn’t Accuracy Enough? Like “quality,” there are a multitude of interpretations of “accuracy.”

Accuracy is a Variable, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous (VUCA) concept.

The term “accuracy” often assumes/implies “a” (one) correct outcome (no variation).

Accuracy is commonly viewed only as an outcome, not a process.

Accuracy commonly measured as a “stand alone” function.


Why isn’t Accuracy Enough?Common synonyms for “accuracy” are not accurate, for example:

Source: Stacie Wissler, CQM O/E, CQA, QISP ToR; Data, Measurement, & Data Management



Why isn’t Accuracy Enough?US Auto Industry Circa 1970:

Engine piston diameter accuracy/specification: DP-1 to DP+1.

Engine block cylinder bore accuracy/specification: DC-1 to DC+1.

What if pistons trend to DP-1 and cylinder bores to DC+1? “Accuracy” based solely on isolated specifications.

Japanese Auto Industry Circa 1970: Focus on reducing errors, nonconformances, and rework. Manage the gap (reduce the tolerance / redefine “accuracy”). “Accuracy” based on product performance, longevity, and customer needs.



Why isn’t Accuracy Enough?Solid Waste Management pre-1980s

“Garbage Dumps…” Out of site, out of mind. Air quality, surface water, and groundwater were “stand-alone” issues. Bury the garbage and walk away when dump is full.

Solid Waste Management post-1990s Controlled, engineered, and highly regulated (federal, state, local). “Cradle to grave” management of most waste streams. Air, water, groundwater, and landfill gas managed as inter-related aspects.


Garbage Dump vs. Engineered Landfill

Source: royalty free images from photostock.com


Why isn’t Accuracy Enough?Work vs. Home:

Work: to meet needs (i.e., “in spec” and accurate) the material is to be cut between Lx-1 and Lx+1.

Home: to meet needs you need one 2 X 4 that is 24.5 inches long. What’s the difference?

Discussion modified from Dr. William Bellows (apologies for mangling his eloquent example)



What is Systems Thinking?

Systems thinking is a disciplined perspective of striving to see and understand activities and processes as systems of relationships rather than focusing only on the detail of any particular piece. Events, processes, projects, and businesses are seen in the larger context of interconnections that evolve over time.



Systems thinking is a discipline for seeing wholes. It is a framework for seeing interrelationships rather than things,

for seeing ‘patterns of change’ rather than static ‘snapshots.’ – Peter Senge (1947 - )



94% of problems in business are systems driven, only 6% are people driven.

– W. Edwards Deming (1900 – 1993)



Why is Systems Thinking Needed?

The “old” business model (aka Deming’s “prevailing system ”): Command and control organizational structure. Compartmentalized business functions (silos). “Assembly line” approach, highly specialized, repetitive task-specific skills. Designed for an undereducated work force with minimal job training. Rigidly controlled access to information and knowledge. Focus on “What” and “How;” understanding of “Why” generally absent. Repetition of errors (lessons observed vs. lessons learned). Work/life imbalance – implied social contract: one career, one job for life.


Why is Systems Thinking Needed?

The “new,” evolving business model: More flexible, fluid, often projectized organizational structure. Borderless business functions; emphasis on collaboration. Continuous improvement mindset; focus on clarity, simplicity, understanding. Most highly educated workforce in history; more capable every year. Information and knowledge a shared currency; continuous worker training. Projects/processes aligned with strategic goals; “why” is understood. Robust use of lessons learned and root cause analysis (audits are “good”). Work/life balance encouraged – many jobs, multiple careers.


We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.

– Albert Einstein (1879 – 1955)



Systems Thinking is not New…

Learn how to see. Realize that everything connects to everything else.

– Leonardo De Vinci (1452 – 1519)

The general who wins the battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought. The general who loses

makes but few calculations beforehand. – Sun Tzu (Circa 490 BC)


Characteristics of System Thinking

Passion for planning and identifying challenges and opportunities. Use of front end evaluation and design (FEED) concepts. Proactive use of prior lessons learned and root cause analysis (RCA) to

support FEED. Alignment of all processes and projects with strategic goals and client

needs. Values frequent communication and information sharing. Flexible, pragmatic, solutions-oriented problem solving (PDSA). Perspective.


Characteristics of System Thinking

Systems Thinking tools and applications are hiding in plain sight; examples include:

Shewhart/Deming Cycle. Ishikawa (Fishbone) Cause and Effect Diagrams. 5 Whys Process. RACI Charts. Stakeholder Registers. Risk Registers.


Systems Thinking Tools

PlanDoStudyAct

Shewhart/Deming Cycle (PDSA) Strategic planning. “What if” scenario evaluation. Useful at task or system level. Build systems from component parts.


Systems Thinking ToolsISO 14000 – Environmental Management

ISO 14001 the worlds most recognized Environmental Management System. All ISO standards are is designed to be implemented via PDSA, e.g:


Systems Thinking ToolsIshikawa (Fishbone) Cause and Effect Diagrams

Most commonly used reactively to evaluate problems. Useful to facilitate team thinking to “reverse engineer” causes and effects. This tool also makes a very useful proactive, planning and analysis tool.


Systems Thinking Tools5 “Whys” Process

A reactive questioning process designed to drill down into a problem. Peels away the layers of symptoms. Commonly a component of Root Cause Analysis (RCA). Brings clarity and refinement to problem statements and potential solutions.

Can be used proactively to brainstorm potential problems and solutions…


Systems Thinking ToolsRACI Charts

Type of Responsibility Assignment Matrix. Responsible, Accountable, Consult, and Inform (RACI). Useful for taking “what is” to “what should be” or “what if?”

Decision Responsible Accountable Consult Inform

Approve Initial BudgetProject Manger

(PM)CFO Project Sponsor

DepartmentHeads

Approve UnbudgetedCosts <$10K

PM PM

Approve UnbudgetedCosts >$10K

PM CFO Project Sponsor


Systems Thinking ToolsStakeholder Registers

Proactively identify all stakeholders. Support, neutral, or oppose? Develop strategies to convert neutral and opposition to supporters.

Stakeholders Affiliation Contact Info. Pro / Con / Neu Issues Strategy Responsibility

Stakeholder 1

Stakeholder 2

Stakeholder 3

Stakeholder 4


Systems Thinking Tools Risk Register

Identify potential risks. Describe risk triggering events. Develop risk response strategies. Routinely track and monitor Risk Register.

ID Req. ID

Requirement Description Risk Description

Impact

Probability

Score

Trigger Event/Indicator Control Risk Strategy Secondary and/or Residual Risk Workaround Status Date Entered

1 Risk may tie back to a group of requirements or a certain component

Summarize the risk using a risk statement: "If X condition occurs then Y consequence may happen."

0 Are there indications that the risk is about to occur or has occurred?

How will you respond to this risk, and what permanent actions will you take to match that response?

How will you respond to this risk, and what temporary actions will you take to match that response?

Are there risks that result from implementing a risk response strategy or minor risks left over after the risk response strategy is implemented?

If the risk becomes a reality, what will you do in response, as a backup, or alternative/ workaround?


Wrap Up… Accuracy, in itself, is not enough; perspective is required. Recognize any given task is part of a larger system. Systems are built from interconnected, interrelated parts. Systems Thinking is based recognizing and using relationships. Systems Thinking is holistic, proactive, and pragmatic. Systems Thinking tools and techniques are hiding in plain sight. Using Systems Thinking is a competitive advantage.



Final Thought….

It is not necessary to change. Survival is not mandatory.

- W. Edwards Deming (1900 – 1993)

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Accuracy is not enough_Final_03-25-16_R Keenan