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Absorption
4.8MSF
New Supply
3.1MS F
Vacancy
1.7%Avg. Asking Rates
$10.23 PSF
2017 YEAR-END KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
2nd Highest Annual Total
1.72% of Total Inventory 10 Year Low All Time High
ABSORPTION
360,000 SF4.8MSF in 2017
NEW SUPPLY
337,000 SF4.6MSF
Under Construction
VACANCY
1.6%AVG. ASKING RATES
$10.93 PSF
CONTINUED STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
Q1 2018
VANCOUVER | HISTORICAL INDUSTRIAL DEMAND
AVERAGE ANNUAL ABSORPTION HAS INCREASED 2.7 TIMES
2.9
1.8
-0.5
1.5 1.5
3.8
2.7
1.4
6.7
4.0
4.8
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Annu
al Ne
t Abs
orpt
ion (M
illion
Sq. F
t.)
1.9 MSF Av. 5.1 MSF Av.
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2017; CBRE Economic Advisors, Q2 2017.
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2017.
VACANCY AND ABSORPTION FORECAST
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
F
2019
F
Absorption (SF) New Supply (SF) Vacancy (%)
"No Absorption" Forecast "Mid Absorption" Forecast*5-year average
"High Absorption" Forecast*3-year average
FORECAST
NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL | AVAILABILITY RATES
LOWEST AVAILABILITY RATES (MARKETS EXCEEDING 100MSF)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Toro
nto
Vanc
ouve
r
Oran
ge Co
unty
Los A
ngele
s
Wat
erloo
Detro
it
Portl
and
Cincin
nati
Char
lotte
Oakla
nd
Milw
auke
e
Seat
tle
Salt
Lake
City
Cleve
land
Cent
ral N
ew Je
rsey
Las V
egas
Mont
real
Colu
mbu
s
Minn
eapo
lis/S
t. Pa
ul
Inla
nd Em
pire
Indi
anap
olis
St. L
ouis
Chica
go
Rich
mon
d
Miam
i
Avail
abili
ty Ra
te (%
)
Vancouver = 2nd Lowest
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2017
Population
Growing at a rate of 115 people per day
Consumer Demand
Retail sales up 6.8% in 2017(a record high)
GDP Growth
Averaged 3.85% annually the past 4 years
METRO VANCOUVER ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT
CONTINUED STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
VANCOUVER INDUSTRIAL | TOP 20 LEASE TRANSACTIONS BY INDUSTRY
75% OF DEALS DRIVEN BY CONSUMER GOODS
14.8%
2.4%
31.3%
26.1%
17.8%
7.5%
3PL
Film
Food and Beverage
Furniture / Building Supplies
General Consumer Goods
Scientific & Technical
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2017.
242 KSF 214 KSF 113 KSF 116 KSF 115 KSF 454 KSF 347 KSF 161 KSF 134 KSF 191 KSF 161 KSF
1,096K569KQ4 2018Q3 2018Q1 2018 Q2 2018
PITT MEADOWS
SURREY DELTA BURNABY DELTA TFN LANDS SURREY DELTA DELTA VANCOUVER ABBOTSFORD
GOLDEN EARS BP BUILDING
200
SOUTH SURREY BP BUILDING 1
BUCKINGHAM INDUSTRIAL
ESTATES
CRESCENT PHASE 2
DELTA LINK BC PHASE 1
DELTAPORT LOGISTICS
CENTRE
CAMPBELL HEIGHTS WEST BP
BUILDING 100 &200
DELTA LINK BUSINESS
PARK
DELTA LINK BC PHASE 2
IRONWORKS GATEWAY EAST BC
BUILDING 1
PRE-LEASED PRE-LEASED AVAILABLE PRE-SOLD PRE-SOLD AVAILABLE AVAILABLE AVAILABLE PRE-SOLD 68% PRE-SOLD PRE-LEASED
231K 352KTOTALSF
SPEC PROJECTS 100,000 SF OR GREATER
$0.00
$200.00
$400.00
$600.00
$800.00
$1,000.00
$1,200.00
$1,400.00
$1,600.00
$1,800.00
3,700
3,750
3,800
3,850
3,900
3,950
4,000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
F
Thou
sand
s
Inve
ntor
y (Ac
res)
Inventory (Acres) *Land Cost ($/acre)*Parcel sizes ranging from 1.5-7 acresSource: CBRE Research, RealNet.
FORECAST
METRO VANCOUVER | INVENTORY AND PRICE ANALYSIS
STRATA PRICING ANALYSIS
SF $ PSF Total $ AnnualPMT
Annual PMT PSF
(+) 50 BPS
Brentwood 10,000 $425 $4,250,000 $212,038 $21.20 $22.13
NW Langley 10,000 $295 $2,950,000 $147,179 $14.71 $15.36
Mitchel Island 10,000 $320 $3,200,000 $159,652 $15.96 $16.66
Bridgeview 10,000 $330 $3,300,000 $164,641 $16.46 $17.18
CampbellHeights
10,000 $325 $3,250,000 $162,147 $16.21 $16.92
Not included• Closing Costs• Property Transfer Tax• Tenant Improvements (based on shell)
Assumptions• 30% Down Payment• 20 Year Amortization• 5 year Loan Term• 3.8% interest rate
DENSIFICATION OF INDUSTRIAL | SOUTH VANCOUVER
ACHIEVED = 0.83 FSR PROPOSED = 3.0 FSR
UNDER CONSTRUCTION = 1.41 FSR
8811 Laurel Street 8729 Aisne Street
8223 Sherbrooke Street
METRO VANCOUVER INDUSTRIAL STATISTICS Q1 2018
OVERALL SUMMARY
Q1 2018 Vancouver Burnaby Richmond Tri-Cities/NW Delta/TFN Lands Surrey Langley
Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows
Abbotsford NorthVancouver
MetroVancouver
Inventory 22,863,561 28,234,717 35,871,397 17,571,025 23,681,190 32,942,674 14,633,076 3,194,908 5,682,129 5,360,556 190,035,233
Availability Rate 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 3.3% 1.6% 2.5% 2.4% 3.5% 1.3% 2.3%
Vacancy Rate 1.7% 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 2.3% 0.9% 2.1% 0.8% 1.6% 0.8% 1.6%
Vacant Inventory 397,722 384,934 622,338 243,489 552,128 290,337 304,927 24,909 92,027 41,066 2,953,877
Absorption (Q1 2018) -89,267 220,062 -30,224 29,952 -136,259 238,078 -63,079 160,670 56,476 -26,423 359,986
New Supply (Q1 2018) 4,963 0 0 0 0 332,076 0 0 0 0 337,039
Under Construction 423,072 545,237 286,000 249,773 *1,176,945 969,557 169,640 326,422 420,000 17,348 4,583,994
Average Net AskingLease Rate ($/sq. ft.)
$16.53 $11.84 $10.17 $11.06 $8.56 $9.03 $9.46 $8.75 $7.02 $17.59 $10.90
TMI ($/sq. ft.) $5.52 $4.14 $4.12 $4.28 $3.42 $3.40 $4.13 $2.23 $3.08 $5.76 $4.15
Gross Rental Rate ($/sq. ft.) $22.05 $15.98 $14.29 $15.34 $11.98 $12.43 $13.59 $10.98 $10.10 $23.35 $15.05
* 453,620 sq.ft. is being developed at the Tsawwassen First Nation Lands
METRO VANCOUVER INDUSTRIAL STATISTICS Q1 2018
EXISTING VACANT SPACE BY SIZE CATEGORY
City 0-5,0005,001-10,000
10,001-25,000
25,001-50,000
50,001-75,000
75,001-100,000
100,001+
Total (Sq.Ft.)
0-5,0005,001-10,000
10,001-25,000
25,001-50,000
51,001-75,000
75,001-100,000
100,000+
Abbotsford 11,495 26,211 54,321 - - - - 92,027 4 3 3 - - - -
Burnaby 12,370 29,738 48,230 33,383 - - 261,213 384,934 4 4 3 1 - - 2
Delta 14,946 6,868 66,038 152,867 - 76,780 234,629 552,128 5 1 4 4 - 1 1
Langley 22,234 79,070 126,453 77,170 - - - 304,927 7 11 8 2 - - -
Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows 4,401 8,000 12,508 - - - - 24,909 1 1 1 - - - -
North Vancouver 20,504 20,562 - - - - - 41,066 8 3 - - - - -
Richmond 15,620 15,370 65,320 196,771 69,800 - 259,457 622,338 6 2 3 5 1 - 2
Surrey 35,894 38,769 70,713 80,904 64,057 - - 290,337 13 5 4 2 1 - -
Tri-Cities/New Westminster 21,047 21,527 125,398 75,517 - - - 243,489 8 3 8 2 - - -
Vancouver 90,462 61,929 128,763 116,568 - - - 397,722 36 8 8 3 - - -
Metro Vancouver Total (Sq.Ft.) 248,973 308,044 697,744 733,180 133,857 76,780 755,299 2,953,877 92 41 42 19 2 1 5
TEAM
Pat PhillipsVice PresidentPersonal Real Estate CorporationVancouver, BC
Geoffrey ChartersAssociateVancouver, BC
OBJECTIVES
1. What factors are contributing to the lack of industrial supply?
2. What land is available in Calgary versus Vancouver?
3. Companies who have a significant distribution presence in Calgary from
which they service the Vancouver market
4. Companies who would like a larger presence in BC but have not found
a suitable site or building
OBJECTIVES
5. Why do companies leave the GVA?
6. Why are companies staying here, and what (if anything) do they
sacrifice?
7. How are companies who relocate to Calgary distribution/warehouse
facilities distributing to BC?
8. Tenant Facility Comparison
1. What factors are contributing to the lack of industrial supply?
> Historically low vacancy rates
> Growth of e-commerce Internet-based sales from both store and non-store retailers rose
31% to $15.7 billion in 2017*
Require different building specs Larger square footage, higher employee count and parking
requirement, access to more labour
*Stats Canada
1. What factors are contributing to the lack of industrial supply?> Alternative uses outside of traditional industrial
Film $2.6 Billion in BC in 2017, an historical high
Recreational uses
Cannabis In Colorado, 63.4% of space used to grow cannabis is in warehouse
space.
Industrial strata
1. What factors are contributing to the lack of industrial supply?
> Increase in Port traffic/container Shipping 10% increase in container traffic last year. 2,900,000 containers.
> Lack of highway infrastructure
> Severe lack of available development lands
Very few if any well located land sites for development,
especially for medium and larger uses (greater than 5
acre sites)
Land prices - doubled in Campbell Heights in the past 24
months; have risen greatly in every GVA market
2. What land is available in Calgary versus Vancouver?> Calgary – Currently available for development
90 acres
110 acres
200 acres
> Calgary – Upcoming land (18-24 months) 120 acres
700 acres
3. Companies who have a significant distribution presence in Calgary from which they service the Vancouver market
> Home Depot (were formerly in Delta)
> Lowe’s (can’t find suitable space)
> Canadian Tire (had a small warehouse in Langley previously)
> Acklands Grainger (moving at present)
> Whirlpool
4. Companies who would like a larger presence in BC but have not found a suitable site or building
> Walmart (have been looking for a long time)
> Sobeys
> Costco (would like to double their distribution)
> Lordco (also would like to at least double their distribution)
> Amazon (will be forced to leave Braid Road, their main facility)
> Loblaws (forced to renew T&T’s current distribution facilities after
looking at consolidation options)
5. Why do companies leave the GVA?
> They cannot find the space they require Extreme low vacancy, high land prices, multiple offers on almost
every industrial building in the market
> Labour availability The #1 issue facing our market – access to transit, labour, home
prices all major factors
General labourers are in high demand and very short supply
6. Why are companies staying here, and what (if anything) do they sacrifice?> Customers and business are BC based
> Access to seaports in Metro Vancouver
> Skilled labour based in Metro Vancouver
> Save on Foods example EV Logistics, 2 large facilities totaling 800,000 SF in Gloucester,
purchased a number of years ago (early 2000’s) and allow them
to keep distribution in Vancouver.
Very few or no options for other large companies to do the same
6. Why are companies staying here, and what (if anything) do they sacrifice?> Business Growth
Companies are forced to stay in non-ideal (smaller) facilities
because they cannot find suitable warehouses that allow for
growth – 3 examples for us this year alone
Limited new markets outside the GVA with Abbotsford and
Chilliwack also constrained
> Outsourcing distribution Though third party providers also close to full, especially in the
cold storage and food industries
6. Why are companies staying here, and what (if anything) do they sacrifice?
> Relocating to areas within the GVA but outside where they
would like to be Higher transportation costs
Lower access to labour
Loss of business efficiencies
7. How are companies who relocate to Calgary distribution/warehouse facilities distributing to BC?
> Distribution from Calgary via rail to the intermodal terminal in
BC
> Large number of trucks from Calgary to Vancouver
> Some use Vancouver’s seaports, ship to Calgary and then
back to Vancouver
> Large distribution hubs in Calgary and small distribution hubs
in BC – a model that will continue to grow
8. Tenant Facility Comparison
CALGARY:
Lowe’s
> – no current GVA distribution for Lowe’s business, though
Rona has a Surrey facility: Facility 1: 11900 18th Street NE 169,093 SF
Facility 2: 5543 72nd Avenue SE 140,890 SF
Facility 3: 1980 104th Avenue NE 377,275 SF
Sobeys 260199 High Plains Boulevard, Balzac, AB 1,310,620 SF
Canadian Tire
> Calgary distribution 1,620,899 SF Facility 1: 5505 72nd Avenue SE 186,746 SF
Facility 2: 5855 A 68th Avenue SE 454,977 SF
Facility 3: 6333 114th Avenue SE 954,813 SF
Facility 4: 7155 64th Street SE 24,363 SF
Walmart
> Calgary distribution: 2,571,182 SF Facility 1: 261043 Range Road 292, Balzac 428,000 SF
Facility 2: 261039 Wagon Wheel Crescent, Balzac 387,000 SF
Facility 3: 4100 Westwinds Drive NE 302,156 SF
Facility 4: 3400 39th Avenue NE 1,201,060 SF
Facility 5: 5801 72nd Avenue SE 252,966 SF
Home Depot
> Calgary Distribution Facility 1: 10600 68th Street SE 425,000 SF
Facility 2: 10600 B 68th Street SE 640,000 SF
Putting Industrial Land Use in Context
Industrial Lands Task Force
10 May 2018
Peter Hall
Urban Studies Program, SFU
Context – it’s not working
• Our over-specialized regional economy
• Technology will change things, but won’t save us
• The challenge of inequality
Trade-offs
• Scale: volume/mass vs flexibility/speed/convenience
• Integration: inter-regional vs intra-regional
• Spaces: highest and best vs the uncertain possible
NelsonRoad
No 8 Road
Portside Road
Blundell Road
No7 Road alignment
Westminster Highway
Coast 2000
Euro-Asia Transload
Adesa Public Auction
KingswoodIndustrial Estate
HBC Logistics
Lafarge Cement
Canfor and Simard-Westlink
Source: Google Earth
Strategies: space for industrial uses
• Creating shared knowledge
• Port governance reform
• Regional industrial land revenue fair share
Port governance reform
Current Board
Federal appointee
Western provinces appointee
BC appointee
Municipal appointee
User nominee 1
User Nominee 2
User Nominee 3
User Nominee 4
User Nominee 5
User Nominee 6
User Nominee 7
Potential future Board
Federal appointee
Western provinces appointee
BC appointee
Burrard municipal appointee
Fraser municipal appointee
Coast Salish
appointee
User nominee 1
User Nominee 2
User Nominee 3
User Nominee 4
Port worker
nominee
Regional industrial land revenue fair shareVancouver, West Vancouver… could compensate Surrey, Delta, Richmond… tofund mitigation, buffers, active transport, strategic (waterfront) land acquisition, etc.
$352,000
$1,311,000
$879,000
$1,576,000
$1,294,000
$2,307,000
$3,716,000
$573,000$511,000
Tax based on total assessed value Revenue based on total industrial land area
White Rock
West Van.
Vancouver
Surrey
Richmond
Port Moody
Port Coquitlam
Pitt Meadows
DNV
CNV
New West.
Maple Ridge
Lions Bay
C Langley
D Langley
Delta
Coquitlam
Burnaby
Bowen Island
Belcarra
Anmore
Putting Industrial Land Use in Context
• Its not working• Over-specialization• Technology• Inequality
• Trade-offs• Scale• Integration• Spaces
• Strategies• Shared knowledge• Governance reform• Revenue-sharing
Metro Vancouver Industrial Lands Inventory
Heather McNellDIRECTOR OF REGIONAL PLANNING AND ELECTORAL AREA SERVICES
Industrial Lands Task Force – May 10, 2018
3
To provide a comprehensive
picture of the amount and type of
industrial land in the Metro
Vancouver region
PURPOSE
4
Who: Municipalities, agencies, developers, consultants
What: Land Quantity, Land Utilization,
and Change over time (2005 to 2010
and 2010-2015)
APPROACH
5
• Region, sub-region, and municipal
• Detailed and Consolidated land use
classifications
• Land use designation / zoning status
• Land ownership
• Site size
RESULTS BY…
• 11,331 hectares (28,000 acres) of land in Inventory
• 8,700 sites consolidated from 11,000 parcels
• 24 Detailed land use classifications; 7 Consolidated
• 9 geographic sub-regions
• 9,071 ha (22,414 ac) is ‘Developed’ (80%)
• 2,261 ha (5,586 ac) is ‘Vacant’ (20%)
6
SUMMARY
7
1. Conversion of industrial lands continues
2. Notable amount of industrial land used for non-industrial activities
3. Most industrial lands are designated and intended for long-term industrial use
4. Ongoing competing priorities for lands
5. Few available large sites for ‘trade enabling’ uses
KEY FINDINGS
8
CHANGE OVER TIME
1. Conversion land intended for industrial uses
Two sets of moving parts• ‘changes’ (additions and deletions)
in the total inventory• ‘absorption’ (lands within the
inventory that were developed or became vacant)
11
Land Use Classifications
• 2005 and 2010 = ‘Developed’ and
‘Vacant’ categories only
• 2015 = 24 detailed land use
classifications
• Can be rolled up into 7 categories
• Gives a much clearer picture of
what is happening on the region’s
industrial land
2. Notable amount of industrial land used for non-industrial activities
12
2. Notable amount of industrial land used for non-industrial activities
Consolidated Land Use Classifications
13
Detailed Land Use Classifications
2. Notable amount of industrial land used for non-industrial activities
14
2. Notable amount of industrial land used for non-industrial activities
Consolidated Land Use Classifications
3. Most industrial lands are designated and intended for long-term industrial use
15
Regional and Municipal Designations
4. Competing priorities for lands
• 92% of the inventory has either an Industrial or Mixed Employment Metro 2040 designation
• 8% of Inventory has a General Urban regional designation (893 ha)
• About a third of those lands (266 ha) are in Urban Centres
• Removals from the inventory are mostly due to municipal policy changes
• Demonstrates a different municipal intent for those lands; supportive of other objectives – e.g. complete, compact communities and ongoing challenges of legitimate competing priorities for land
16
Regional and Municipal Designations
19
KEY FINDINGS RECAP
1. Conversion of industrial lands continues
2. Notable amount of industrial land used for non-industrial activities
3. Most industrial lands are designated and intended for long-term industrial use
4. Ongoing competing priorities for lands
5. Few available large sites for ‘trade enabling’ uses
22
Municipal Designations and Zoning by SectorH
ecta
res
4. Competing priorities for lands
OCP Other; Zoning Industrial
OCP Industrial; Zoning Other
OCP Industrial; Zoning Industrial
23
Land Ownership
5. Short-term intensification potential limited on lands that are ‘fully utilized’
5. Short-term intensification potential limited on lands that are ‘fully utilized’
For ‘General Industrial’ lands, utilization defined as the approx. % of site covered by permanent improvements or clearly utilized).
1. Totally un-utilized (0-20%)
2. Predominantly or substantially un-utilized (20-40%)
3. Partially utilized (40-60%)
4. Predominantly or substantially utilized (60-80%)
5. Totally utilized (80-100%)
25
Utilization
• Understand that utilization is only the first step in looking at intensification potential
• Some properties have ‘functionally obsolete’ buildings that mask the potential to intensify
• Metro Vancouver takes the long view – not wanting to impact current use, but looking to intensification potential in the future
27
5. Short-term intensification potential limited on lands that are ‘fully utilized’
Utilization
DIVISION MANAGER, GROWTH MANAGEMENTJames Stiver
Industrial Lands Strategy Task Force Meeting, May 10, 2018
Regional Industrial Lands Strategy (RILS)SCOPE OF WORK
Gord TychoSENIOR PLANNER, GROWTH MANAGEMENT
2
Context1. Industrial lands as an ongoing
regional issue
2. Part of Metro Vancouver portfolio (since 2005)
3. Part of Metro 2040 (since 2011)
4. Greater regional interest and concern
5. MVRD Board Chair struck Task Force to steer development of RILS
3
Issue Areas• Defining ‘industry’
• Changing nature of industry
• Effectiveness of current policies
• Best practices (intensification)
• Mixed use activities on employment lands
4
Issue Areas• Land value increasing
• Absorption rates increasing
• Rents increasing
• Vacancy rates declining
5
RILS ObjectivesCollaborative approach over next year and a half
1. Build a shared understanding of the challenges and issues associated with industrial lands.
2. Address knowledge gaps and establish a vision to meet the needs of a growing and evolving economy.
3. Identify actions to achieve the vision
6
RILS Output1. Report, with recommended actions
to achieve the vision – actions for multiple stakeholders
2. Range of topic areas, including:• ‘Issue’ areas• Policies to address land protection and
densification/ intensification• Land interfaces and buffers• Financial tools / levers• Governance
7
Work to Date1. Metro Vancouver, VFPA,
municipalities, brokerages, etc.• Industrial Lands Inventory - 2005, 2010,
2015• Quantifying value of trade-enabling lands• Intensification best practices• Types of regional industrial activities• Quantifying demand• Quarterly market activity reports• User surveys
8
The Present: Trends,
Inventory, Demand
Explore Opportunities
Strategy Development: Considering
Solutions
2018 2018 - 2019 2019
• Industrial economicimpact to the region.
• Industrial sectors’ challenges, requirements.
• Related regional initiatives (collaboration).
• Other regional approaches to industrial land strategies.
• Exploring best practices (intensification, mixed use, buffers, etc.).
• Changing nature of industry (tech):jobs/land
• Exploring options for our region.
• Engagement.• Developing Regional
Industrial Lands Strategy (RILS).
Phases, Research, and Timeline
9
Next Steps - Phase 1• May 10 - Task Force meeting
• Terms of Reference, Scope of Work• Continue current work:
• RFP’s for consultant studies, RPAC sessions
• June 21 – Task Force meeting• Phase 1 findings (regional initiatives)
• Sept 20 - Task Force meeting• Other Phase 1 findings (economic
value)
10
Budget1. RILS ($30,000); Industrial & Mixed
Employment Policy Review ($50,000)
2. Current work: RFPs for consultant studies, RPAC sessions
3. Task Force meeting – June 21*
*Re-assessment and potential request for additional funds
11
Final Comments• Draft Scope of Work
• Research Program• Work underway in region• Sector needs & challenges• Economic value• Activities on ‘general
industrial’ lands• Changing nature of
industry• Best practices
• Other?