Energy- sources, availability, demand, affordability, delivery

Sustainability and Water

Abbas Ghassemi, PhDNew Mexico State University

Institute for Energy and the Environment

What is the problem?

Our energy needs fall into two categories:

• Power• Transportation

Both are presently dominated by fossil fuels but can be met with a realistic combination of fossil, renewable and nuclear.

The pressing issues:

• Adverse environmental effects of fossil fuel use, particularly the use of coal in power generation is, arguably, the most destructive activity humans can engage in, outside of large-scale war

• World peak oil (gas and even coal) will be achieved relatively soon oil ~ 2010 (gone by 2065; unc. > 2140)

(unconventionals will change gas ~ 2020 (gone by 2040; unc. > 2120)the oil and gas peaks) coal ~ 2050 (gone by 2110)

Mill

ions

of B

arre

ls p

er y

ear World

PeakOil

P re s e n t E n e rg y D is tr ib u tio n (T ra n s

9 5 %

0 % 5 % 0 %

P r e s e n t E n e r g y D i s t r i b u t

8 %

2 0 %

1 5 %

0 %

0 %

1 %

0 %

1 7 %

3 9 %

New Mexico88% coal 10% gas2% other

California21% coal 41% gas13% nuclear17% hydroelectric8% other

coal

gas

nuclear

hydrooil

petroleum

bio

United States50% coal 19% gas19% nuclear6% hydroelectric6% other

World (2005)

European Union30% coal 18% gas32% nuclear11% hydroelectric

6% oil 3% other

India75% coal

2% nuclear20% hydroelectric

3% other

O i l

G a s

C o a l

N u c l e

H y d r

W i n d

G e o t

B i o f u

S o l a r

P e t r o l e u ( i n c l u d i n c e l l s )

N u c l e a r c e l l s )

B i o f u e l s

S o l a r ( i n f u e l c e l l s

1980

20

30

40

10

2000 2020 2040

20

30

40

10

historicprojected

World presently at15 trillion kWhrs/year

U. S. presently at 4 trillion kWhrs/year

1.6 billion people have no access toelectricity, 80% of them in South Asia and sub–Saharan Africa.

2.4 billion people burn wood andmanure as their main energy source.

3 billion more people will be born by 2040Source: 2005 Kay Chernush for the

U.S. Department of State

Source: United Nations; McFarlane 2006

Millions of people without electricity

Millions of people relying on biomass

56

96

2820

18 570

801

815

530509

221

332

Map of Global Energy Poverty

3,000Millions of people to be born by 2040

80% of the world’s population of over 6 billion people is below 0.8 on the U.N. Human Development Index (HDI)

Source: United Nations Development Program; McFarlane 2006

4,000 8,000 12,000

India

China

Pakistan

RussiaGermany

Australia

Canada

France Japan

U.S.

Annual Electricity Use (kWh/Capita)16,000

Prosperity

Education

Life span

Niger

Papua New Guinea

Ethiopia

Angola

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

Indonesia

UKCA

Access to energy is essential to quality of life

Iran

Global Energy Distribution

as indicated by nighttime electricity use

India’s planned power capacity

1344

1600

819

150100

275

104.7327.78

3.5 2.72

138.73

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2002 2012 2022 2032 2042 2052Year

Inst

alled

Capa

city

(GW

e)

Fossil Hydro NonConv Nuclear Total

Energy Used for Power

Primarily electricity - to produce light, heat and power

Unit: kWhr = thousand watts for an hour

U.S. = 9¢ per kWhr

CA = 12¢ per kWhrNM = 8¢ per kWhrTN = 5¢ per kWhr

Usually uses some energy source to turn a dynamo - a turbine or a big wheel that turns a metallic shaft inside a stationary

metallic wrapping

Usually use some energy source to turn a dynamo - a turbine or a big wheel that turns a metallic shaft inside a stationary

metallic wrapping• wind turning a rotor that turns a turbine

Energy Used for Power

Primarily electricity - to produce light, heat and power

Unit: kWhr = thousand watts for an hour

U.S. = 9¢ per kWhr

CA = 12¢ per kWhrNM = 8¢ per kWhrTN = 5¢ per kWhr

Usually use some energy source to turn a dynamo - a turbine or a big wheel that turns a metallic shaft inside a stationary

metallic wrapping• wind turning a rotor that turns a turbine, or • falling water that turns a turbine

Energy Used for Power

Primarily electricity - to produce light, heat and power

Unit: kWhr = thousand watts for an hour

U.S. = 9¢ per kWhr

CA = 12¢ per kWhrNM = 8¢ per kWhrTN = 5¢ per kWhr

Usually use some energy source to turn a dynamo - a turbine or a big wheel that turns a metallic shaft inside a stationary

metallic wrapping• wind turning a rotor that turns a turbine, or • falling water that turns a turbine, or • coal, gas, geothermal or nuclear that heats water into steam that

turns a turbine

Energy Used for Power

Primarily electricity - to produce light, heat and power

Unit: kWhr = thousand watts for an hour

U.S. = 9¢ per kWhr

CA = 12¢ per kWhrNM = 8¢ per kWhrTN = 5¢ per kWhr

Usually use some energy source to turn a dynamo - a turbine or a big wheel that turns a metallic shaft inside a stationary

metallic wrapping• wind turning a rotor that turns a turbine, or • falling water that turns a turbine, or • coal, gas, geothermal or nuclear that heats water into steam that

turns a turbine • photovoltaic solar, one of few sources that changes incident solar

radiation into electricity through heat without a turbine.

Energy Used for Power

Primarily electricity - to produce light, heat and power

Unit: kWhr = thousand watts for an hour

U.S. = 9¢ per kWhr

CA = 12¢ per kWhrNM = 8¢ per kWhrTN = 5¢ per kWhr

Danger

OpportunityCrisis =

- NIELS BOHR

“How wonderful that we have met with a paradox. Now we have some hope of making progress.”

Some Useful Things to Remember

“A crisis is a terrible thing to waste”Paul Romer

A vision without action is a dream,Action without vision is a nightmare

Japanese Proverb

行為のない視野は夢、視野のない行為である不快感である

Kamat, 2000; Lewis, 2003

Renewables for 10 trillion kW-hrs

Can Renewables generate 10 trillion kW-hrs/yr? This is the amount of energy presently supplied by all fossil fuels.

2006 U.S. Consumption of Renewables

out of U.S. total of 4 trillion kWhrs/year

Biomass SolarWindHydroelectric Geothermal

0.1

0.3

0.2

4.0

Anticipated Consumption from Renewables by 2040

(after the American Council On Renewable Energy)

Biomass

U.S. Total Power Production

U.S Renewable Goal

SolarWindHydroelectric Geothermal

1

5

2

32

34

6

33World Total Power Production

U.S. Expected Goal

Economic competition of biofuelswith food production

Food crops do not make good fuel crops

However, the infrastructure and distribution system is already in place so growers and distributors can

produce now

Cars Compete for Corn

Percentage of U.S. Corn production used for ethanol

This amount of corn, which willbe used to make 5 billion gallonsof ethanol next year, representsless than 3% of our fuel needsbut could feed 220 million peoplefor a year.

Raising vehicle standards to35 mpg would do more withoutany adverse effects.

Coal Oil NuclearBiomass

SolarWind

Hydroelectric

Geotherm

Energy Returned On Investmentrelative to 1 (similar to the value EROEI)

20

40

60

80

100

80

20

100

4 41.1

18

1950 1970 2000

30

1980 2006

10

Liq.

5

Gas

1930 1970 2006

30

1511

20

2006EtOH

33

Oilsands

25

biodiesalgae

(After: Cleveland et al., 1984, 1999; ASPO 2006)

GenIII+

15

2008 Construction Costs and Footprint to produce similar power installed capacity x capacity factor (cf) = 1200 MW average production

Construction costs have skyrocketed for all alternative energy sources

$1$2

$3$4$5$6$7

Nuclearcf = 90%$8

$9$10$11

Bill

ions

of D

olla

rs

$7 b

Windcf = 30%

$10 b Solar

cf = 20%

$9 b

0.6 miles2

36 miles2

124 miles2= 59 miles2

Manhattan Island

Source: ISO New England

Smart Grid = Technology, Policy…

In the United States• Increase efficiency and conservation - 1 tkWhrs by 2020

• Increase CAFE to 50 mpg by 2015 - not 35 mpg by 2020

• develop plug-in capabilities - fully-electric cars

• Embrace green building practices and new urbanization strategies that localize essential production, and reduce energy use and transportation - culture change

• Dramatically increase electric grid and distribution development - new transmission infrastructure

• Plan resource stockpiling, e.g., steel, copper

by 2040, for energy security and economic stability, we need:

- 100,000 3+ MW wind turbines totaling 0.8 trillion kWhrs/year

- Concentrated and ordinary solar arrays totaling 0.5 trillion kWhrs/year

- 200 GenIII+ nuclear reactors, depending upon plug-in vehicle demand (~ 2 trillion kWhrs/year)

- 10 bbl/yr of biofuels from algae, cellulosics and high-efficiency biomass

- 0.8 trillion kWhrs/year from other geothermal, wave, tidal and biogas

- no new coal- or gas-fired power plants

New Mexico power consumption changes - two futures(assuming a 3% growth rate per year and concerted conservation efforts)

2007 2015 OR 2015with all anticipated goals met for with a single 1,500 MW Gen III+ renewable and NGas development reactor

20 billion kWh 25 billion kWh 25 billion kWh

85% coal 76% coal 24% coal

12% natural gas (NG) 20% NG 20% NG

2% hydro 1% hydro 1% hydro

<1% renewables 3% renewables 3% renewables

0% nuclear 0% nuclear 52% nuclear

33 million tons of CO2 36 million tons of CO2 16 million tons of CO2emitted per year emitted per year emitted per year*

1.8 million tons of 1.7 million tons of 0.5 million tons ofhazwaste per year hazwaste per year hazwaste per year°

*NM would be able to export significant amounts of energy for carbon tax credit° health cost savings would be significant, primarily from decreases in respiratory illness

from particulates associated with coal-emissions (~11%; The 1998 ICAP Report)