Aagw2010 June 09 Lieven Claessens Navigating the Change at Cip

8/9/2019 Aagw2010 June 09 Lieven Claessens Navigating the Change at Cip

1/23

Navigating the change

@The International Potato Center (CIP)

CSI 2010

Lieven ClaessensRoberto Quiroz, Reinhard Simon, Rubi Raymundo,

Adolfo Posadas, Percy Zorogastua


2/23

The three top stories (not all new):

Crop modeling in the context of climate change

Development of potato model GeoSolanum Sweet potato crop model Pest and disease modeling Improving rainfall data in mountains Crop modelers united!

High resolution remote sensing

Stress detection with low cost airborne platforms

Environmental vulnerability assessments

Erosion mapping in the Nile Basin Landslide prediction in Uganda: communicating research results


3/23

Crop modeling in the context of climate change:

Potato model GeoSolanum:

- Currently temperature and solar radiation based

- Water and nutrient limited simulation under development- Limited amount of potato varieties parameterized (mainly Latin American,none for Africa,.)


4/23


Potato & climate:

A. Effect of temperature on the metabolic reaction rate

Reaction Rate%

B. Effect of soil temperature on the emergency rate of

potato plantsOptimal t

Temperature ( C )

EmergencyRate

Temperature ( C )

C. Effect of temperature on photosynthesis andrespiration in potato

Respiration/photosynthesis rates(gCO2 cm

-2 hoja min -1

Totalphotosynthesis

Net

photos

ynthesis

Respiration

Air temperature ( C )

D. Relationship between total dry matter and interceptedsolar energy under different environmental conditions

CummulativeDM(

gcm-2)

Cold weather + waterB = 2.0

Warm weather + waterB = 1.2

Warm weather w/o waterB = 0.8

Intercepted solar radiation

A. Effect of temperature on the metabolic reaction rate

Reaction Rate%

B. Effect of soil temperature on the emergency rate of

potato plantsOptimal t

Temperature ( C )

Emerge

ncyRate

Temperature ( C )

C. Effect of temperature on photosynthesis andrespiration in potato

Respiration/photosynthesis rates(gCO2 cm

-2 hoja min -1

Totalphotosynthesis

Net

photos

ynthesis

Respiration

Air temperature ( C )

D. Relationship between total dry matter and interceptedsolar energy under different environmental conditions

CummulativeDM(

gcm-2)

Cold weather + waterB = 2.0

Warm weather + waterB = 1.2

Warm weather w/o waterB = 0.8

Intercepted solar radiation

Temperature Requirements:

mean daily temperatures 18 to 20C

night temperature below 15C(required for tuber initiation)

temperatures below 10C and above

30C inhibit tuber growth

Water Requirements:

500 to 700 mm for a 120 to 150 dgrowing season


5/23


Potato model GeoSolanum:

- Potential potato production:


6/23


Potato model GeoSolanum:- Potential number of growing seasons in CIP target countries:


7/23


Potato model GeoSolanum:- Productivity changes with frost tolerant potato variety:


8/23


Potato modeling with FAO EcoCrop (optimal T and R range):- Suitability changes with heat tolerant potato (25to 28) in East Africa:

Current climate2050 climate

2050 climate

Heat tolerant


9/23


Sweet Potato crop model

- Ready for 4 Latin American varieties- Destructive trials for 4 African varieties ongoing in Kiboko, Kenya


10/23


Pest and disease modeling

- For important potato pests with climate dependent life cycles/spreading:Late Blight, Bacterial Wilt, Tuber Moth, Yellow Vein Virus,

- Nothing for sweet potato yet

- Challenge: link pest model results (severity, number of sprays,..) to crop

growth simulation (yield effects).


11/23

B

A


Pest and disease modeling- Climate scenarios for potato tuber moth:


12/23


Pest and disease modeling- Risk mapping for potato yellow vein virus:


13/23

Improving Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall estimates in mountainswith Inverse Discrete Wavelet Transform methodology

Quiroz et al., in press, Environmental Modeling and Software



14/23


15/23

High resolution Remote Sensing Stress detection:

- Low cost air-borne platforms for high resolution RS- Spectral signatures of disease symptoms

- Early warning applications (e.g. drought)


16/23Deficit irrigation

Normal irrigation

Terminal drought

0-0.10.1-0.2

0.2-0.30.3-0.40.4-0.50.5-0.6

NDVI

Fresh yield (t/ha)24

Drought detection


17/23

Stress detection: potato yellow vein virus (distinct spectral signature)

E i l V l bili A


18/23

Environmental Vulnerability Assessments:

- Modeling scenarios of agricultural intensification and climate change

Soil erosion in the Nile Basin (with ILRI): hotspots of vulnerability

E i t l V l bilit A t


19/23

Environmental Vulnerability Assessments:

- Modeling scenarios of agricultural intensification and climate change

Landslide hazard mapping in Uganda:


20/23

1st of March 2010


21/23

1st of March 2010

?


22/23

Navigating the change:

Crop modeling in the context of climate change Ongoing collaborations, with funding (Global Futures, CCAFS)!

High resolution remote sensing

Not limited to (sweet)potato: MP5? Environmental vulnerability assessments

Other centers doing this (e.g. IWMI flooding, CIAT-TSBF soil fertility,ICRISAT drought mapping, ILRI water productivity, )? More?

MP5?


23/23

THANK YOU

Documents

Aagw2010 June 09 Lieven Claessens Navigating the Change at Cip