A Weekly Report on Metals...14 17 22 25 2-r 7-r 10 r 15 r 18-r 23 r 28 r 31 r 5-r 8-13 r 18 21-Aluminium CONTANGO BACKWARDATION CALENDAR SPREAD ON MCX 0.00 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20

METALS WEEKLY A Weekly Report on Metals

OUTLOOK

Week ahead might remain tepid in terms of trading activity as London Metal Exchange would remain closed on 25th and

29th of April owing to Easter Monday and Special Bank Holiday respectively. However in terms of economic data there

are many crucial data releases like the FOMC rate decision and GDP numbers which would be keenly watched.

US economy is expected to have grown at 1.9 percent (annualized) in the first quarter of 2011 as personal consumption

growth takes backseat. However consumer confidence in the current month is expected to have got a boost given the

improving economic conditions. Amid all this, FOMC is expected to maintain interest rate unchanged at 0.25 percent, but

other indications in the form of bond buying program and timeline for exit, if any, would be keenly watched. UK’s

economy is also expected to have grown by half percent after witnessing contraction in the prior quarter. Euro-zone CPI

is expected to move higher and thereby would raise expectation of further rate hike by ECB. This along with positive

GDP numbers from UK might keep the dollar under pressure. Overall, given the largely positive economic data, base

metal prices might remain higher. However within the pack, gains of metals like lead and zinc might remain limited as

there cancelled warrant ratio continues to remain lower and thereby stocks might continue to witness net additions. But

as said earlier trading activity might remain tepid.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS*

Commodity Series S3 S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 R3 Recommendations

LME Aluminium Fwd 2533 2580 2663 2745 2792 2839 2922 Buy at 2700-2720 TP 2825 SL 2630.

MCX Aluminium Apr-11 114.6 116.2 118.8 121.5 123.0 124.6 127.2 Buy at 120-121 TP 126 SL 117

LME Copper Fwd 8868 9038 9371 9705 9874 10044 10377 Buy at 9500-550 TP 9950 SL 9200.

MCX Copper Apr-11 397.3 404.4 417.4 430.4 437.4 444.5 457.5 Buy at 425-427 TP 436/443 SL 418

LME Lead Fwd 2351 2436 2518 2601 2685 2770 2852 Trading range 2480-2680

MCX Lead Apr-11 107.8 111.3 114.0 116.8 120.2 123.7 126.4 Trading range 124-110

LME Nickel Fwd 24165 24713 25806 26900 27447 27995 29088 Buy at 26100-200 TP 28000 SL 25200

MCX Nickel Apr-11 1083.4 1106.4 1150.6 1194.9 1217.8 1240.8 1285.0 Buy at 1180-90 TP 1225/45 SL 1150

LME Zinc Fwd 2200 2251 2305 2360 2410 2461 2515 Trading range 2450-2250

MCX Zinc Apr-11 98.9 100.8 102.7 104.6 106.4 108.3 110.2 Trading range 108-100

Steel NCDEX May-11 27747 27973 28287 28600 28827 29053 29367 Sideways

MCX Iron Ore Apr-11 6850 6889 6941 6994 7032 7071 7123 Trading range 7300-6700

ICEX Iron Ore Apr-11 7282 7467 7569 7671 7856 8041 8143 Trading range 7500-7900

*NOTE: The calls shown above are purely WEEKLY Recommendations

Key Economic Events this Week

Date Time Region Event Period Survey Prior

25/04/2011 19:30 US New Home Sales MAR 280K 250K

27/04/2011 14:00 UK GDP (QoQ) 1Q A 0.50% -0.50%

27/04/2011 14:30 EC Industrial New Orders SA (MoM) FEB 1.50% 0.10%

27/04/2011 22:00 US FOMC Rate Decision 27-Apr 0.25% 0.25%

28/04/2011 18:00 US GDP QoQ (Annualized) 1Q A 1.90% 3.10%

29/04/2011 19:25 US U. of Michigan Confidence APR F 70 69.6

For all the data releases; click here

April 23, 2011


PERFORMANCE SNAPSHOT

Exchange Commodity Open High Low Close

Close

% Change Volume

Volume %

Change

Open

Interest

OI

% Change

Aluminium 2681 2757 2627.5 2745 1.89 155,816 5.69 90,226 1621.54

Copper 9360 9710 9207 9705 3.19 168,632 -26.17 14,358 486.28

Lead 2640 2687 2520 2601 -1.89 49,887 -27.95 6,328 551.03

Nickel 26200 26901 25260 26900 2.85 30,861 -18.02 9,149 1263.49

Zinc 2391 2406 2301 2360 -1.58 80,636 -13.08 20,481 1328.24

Aluminium 118.35 121.95 117.75 121.45 2.79 23,798 10.27 4,118 112.82

Copper 417.8 431.45 411.4 430.35 3.20 385,579 -14.95 23,926 -16.31

Lead 119.45 121 114.8 116.75 -2.30 76,795 -27.73 6,023 5.80

Nickel 1168 1196.5 1129.3 1194.9 2.58 191,480 -15.88 7,642 -21.44

Zinc 106.1 106.4 102.65 104.55 -1.27 78,835 -21.77 9,986 15.87

LME 3-mth

Forward

(USD/tonne)

MCX Futures

(`/Kg)

MARKET OVERVIEW

Base metal prices ended higher with the exception of lead and zinc which ended lower with losses of anywhere

between one to two percent. Lower dollar index along with supportive housing data supported prices to move

higher. Volumes however were on the lower side for all the metals, except for aluminium

Lead and Zinc underperformed the entire base metal pack as prices ended with losses on the back of continued

increase in stocks. Copper prices rose the most and ended with gains of 3.2 percent as concerns about supply kept

prices buoyant

All the metals witnessed increase in stocks on London Metal Exchange except for nickel. Lead and zinc stocks

increased by more than 6 percent thereby taking total stocks to highest level since 1995. Zinc stocks also witnessed

build-up in Chinese warehouses

SHANGHAI MARKET PERFORMANCE

Commodity Previous Week This Week Change % ChangeCopper 71220 71680 460 0.65%

Zinc 18030 17395 -635 -3.52%

Aluminum 16565 16625 60 0.36%

PRICES (CNY/MT)

COMEX MARKET PERFORMANCE

Commodity Previous Week This Week Change % Change

Copper 425.3 439.8 14.5 3.41%

PRICES (USD/LB)


Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Report- Copper

Non-Commercial 4/12/2011 4/19/2011 Change % Change

Long 52973 43667 -9306 -17.57%

Short 21983 18608 -3375 -15.35%

Spreading 10581 9168 -1413 -13.35%

Commercial

Long 62368 63739 1371 2.20%

Short 98055 90632 -7423 -7.57%

Total

Long 125922 116574 -9348 -7.42%

Short 130619 118408 -12211 -9.35%

CFTC Report - Copper (In contracts)

INVENTORY DETAILS

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 450425 456275 5850 1.30%

Zinc 764250 814300 50050 6.55%

Aluminium 4566375 4603075 36700 0.80%

Lead 287075 304625 17550 6.11%

Nickel 120480 117942 -2538 -2.11%

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (In tonnes)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % ChangeCopper 83700 83019 -681 -0.81%

COMEX WAREHOUSE STOCKS (In tonnes)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 147651 139076 -8575 -5.81%

Zinc 384882 389628 4746 1.23%

Aluminium 399846 393069 -6777 -1.69%

SHANGHAI WAREHOUSE STOCKS (In tonnes)

According to US CFTC data on Copper,

after witnessing increase in positions in the

previous week, unwinding was witnessed

across all the segments on COMEX. On the

non-commercial side, both long and short

positions declined by double digit

percentages. Commercial side also

witnessed unwinding of short positions.

Overall, both long and short positions

declined.


ECONOMIC REVIEW

US housing data came in better than expected for the month of March. All the three, housing starts, building permits

and existing home sales rose thereby raising expectation that conditions in housing sector might be improving.

However house prices continues to decline, might have been largely owing to continued deleveraging

From Euro zone, PMI numbers came in better than expected while the IFO numbers came in mixed. Euro however

continued to remain buoyant as expectation of continued rate hike provided support to the regions currency. Funds

moving to higher yielding currency also provided support to Euro

Dollar index continued to remain under pressure and ended lower by nearly a percent. This took the dollar index to

three year lows. Strength in other currencies like Euro, GBP and JPY put the dollar index under pressure. S&P

revision of outlook to negative also kept the dollar under pressure and supported commodity prices to trade on the

higher side

Equity markets largely remained positive and ended higher with gains of more than a percent. Chinese market

however ended lower by more than one percent thereby underperforming most of the other global markets. Reserve

ratio hike by 50 bps weighed on Chinese stocks

Indian rupee ended largely flat thereby the percentage change in all the metals was largely same on both London

Metal and Indian markets

Equity Indices Last Week This Week % ChangeDow Jones Ind. Avg. 12341.83 12505.99 1.33%

S&P 500 Index 1319.68 1337.38 1.34%

FTSE 100 Index 5996.01 6018.30 0.37%

Nikkie 225 9591.52 9682.21 0.95%

Shanghai Composite 3050.53 3010.52 -1.31%

Sensex 19386.82 19602.23 1.11%

Currency Last Week This Week % ChangeDollar Index 74.832 74.108 -0.97%

EUR/USD 1.443 1.4561 0.91%

GBP/USD 1.6328 1.6509 1.11%

USD/INR 44.335 44.3675 0.07%


CANCELLED WARRANT RATIO ON LME

2400

2450

2500

2550

2600

2650

2700

2750

2800

5.00%

5.50%

6.00%

6.50%

7.00%

7.50%

8.00%

LM

E P

ric

es

($

/M

T)

Ca

nc

ell

ed

Ra

tio

Aluminium (Prices Vs Cancelled Ratio)

ALUMINIUM

China ordered provincial authorities to stop

approving the construction of new aluminium

smelting capacity. This would limit the new

capacity additions especially when the Chinese

production is expected to exceed consumption by

almost a million tonnes. This supported prices to

move higher to two and half year highs.

The cancelled warrant ratio on LME stands at

more than 7 percent indicating that stocks might

continue to witness draw-downs in the near term.

The basis is also continues to decline indicating

pick up in demand for metal.

BASIS CHART (LME 3 MTH FWD–LME CASH PRICES) {$/Tonnes)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

4-F

eb

9-F

eb

14

-Fe

b

17

-Fe

b

22

-Fe

b

25

-Fe

b

2-M

ar

7-M

ar

10

-Ma

r

15

-Ma

r

18

-Ma

r

23

-Ma

r

28

-Ma

r

31

-Ma

r

5-A

pr

8-A

pr

13

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

AluminiumCONTANGO

BACKWARDATION

CALENDAR SPREAD ON MCX

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

29

-Ma

r

1-A

pr

4-A

pr

7-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

Aluminium

TECHNICALS: Aluminium prices traded higher on last week by reversing the previous trend. It made a low of 2656 then high of 2757 and

before settling higher at 2745 levels. Closing of the candle renders upside movements to be continued for the coming week. Prices are

witnessing crucial support at 2660 levels. On sustained trade above is likely to remain higher. Prices have breached the resistance at

2720 levels (previous week’s highs). On sustained trade above is likely to remain higher. The principle of Fibonacci projections states that

prices have breached the key resistance at 2722 levels which is 100% projections of the range 2360-2628-2452 levels. On sustained

trade above is likely to test 2786 levels and 2826 levels which are 123.6% and 138.2% projections of the mentioned range. The Moving

Average principle suggesting upside movements as prices are trading well above the EMA’s of (8, 21&34). The momentum indicator

weekly RSI-14 is treading at 0.698 levels and suggesting upside potential.



8700

8900

9100

9300

9500

9700

9900

10100

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

LM

E P

ric

es

($

/M

T)

Ca

nc

ell

ed

Ra

tio

Copper (Prices Vs Cancelled Ratio)

COPPER

Shipments of copper wire and cable shipments to

Japan declined by 8.1 percent to 55,300 tonnes in

the month of March. This marks the biggest fall in

18 months and is largely owing to devastating

earthquake which disrupted many company’s

operations thereby reducing demand.

The cancelled warrant ratio on LME has however

moved back higher indicating that pace of

increase in stocks might slow down and stocks

might even witness draw-downs in the near

term.


-25-20-15-10

-505

1015202530

4-F

eb

9-F

eb

14

-Fe

b

17

-Fe

b

22

-Fe

b

25

-Fe

b

2-M

ar

7-M

ar

10

-Ma

r

15

-Ma

r

18

-Ma

r

23

-Ma

r

28

-Ma

r

31

-Ma

r

5-A

pr

8-A

pr

13

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

CopperCONTANGO

BACKWARDATION


0.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.005.506.006.507.007.50

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

Copper



2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

LM

E P

ric

es

($

/M

T)

Ca

nc

ell

ed

Ra

tio

Lead (Prices Vs Cancelled Ratio)

LEAD Reports indicated that one unidentified company

holds anywhere between 80 to 89 percent of the

total lead stocks on LME warehouses. Total stocks

have been increasing for past quite few days

thereby taking the total stocks back to the highest

level last witnessed in 1995.

The cancelled warrant ratio however continues to

remain at lower levels thereby indicating that

stocks might continue to witness build-up in the

near term.


-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

7-F

eb

10

-Fe

b

15

-Fe

b

18

-Fe

b

23

-Fe

b

28

-Fe

b

3-M

ar

8-M

ar

11

-Ma

r

16

-Ma

r

21

-Ma

r

24

-Ma

r

29

-Ma

r

1-A

pr

6-A

pr

11

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

LeadCONTANGO

BACKWARDATION


-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

29

-Ma

r

1-A

pr

4-A

pr

7-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

Lead

TECHNICALS: Lead prices traded lower on last week by continuing the previous trend. It made a high of 2687 then low of 2520 and

settled at 2598 levels. Closing of the candle renders indecisive movements for the coming week. Prices are witnessing resistance at 2685

levels (previous swing highs). On sustained trade below is likely to remain higher. Prices are witnessing Trend Line support at 2465

levels. On breach and sustained trade below would guide the prices to further lows. Prices also witnessing support at 2370-2400 levels

(previous swing lows). On sustained trade above is likely to trade higher. The momentum indicator RSI 14 Weekly is treading at 0.529

levels and suggesting indecisive movements for the coming week.



23000

23500

24000

24500

25000

25500

26000

26500

27000

27500

28000

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

LM

E P

ric

es

($

/M

T)

Ca

nc

ell

ed

Ra

tio

Nickel (Prices Vs Cancelled Ratio)

NICKEL

Nickel is the one of the top performers among the

base metal pack on the back of strong physical

demand for the metal. In fact, it was the only metal

to witness net draw-downs of stocks from London

Metal Exchange thereby leading to outperformance.

The nickel market though has moved back to

contango, the discount in cash market continues to

remain at $20/tonne.


-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

4-F

eb

9-F

eb

14

-Fe

b

17

-Fe

b

22

-Fe

b

25

-Fe

b

2-M

ar

7-M

ar

10

-Ma

r

15

-Ma

r

18

-Ma

r

23

-Ma

r

28

-Ma

r

31

-Ma

r

5-A

pr

8-A

pr

13

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

NickelCONTANGO

BACKWARDATION


0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

29

-Ma

r

1-A

pr

4-A

pr

7-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

Nickel



2100

2150

2200

2250

2300

2350

2400

2450

2500

2550

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

LM

E P

ric

es

($

/M

T)

Ca

nc

ell

ed

Ra

tio

Zinc (Prices Vs Cancelled Ratio)

ZINC

Huge build-up in stocks for zinc was witnessed

this week. Total stocks increased by 50,050

tonnes thereby taking the total above the

800,000 tonnes the levels last seen in 1995.

Stocks in Chinese warehouses also continue to

increase thereby adding to the pressure.

Cancelled warrant ratio continues to remain at

lower levels indicating that stocks might

continue to witness build-up in the near term.


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

4-F

eb

9-F

eb

14

-Fe

b

17

-Fe

b

22

-Fe

b

25

-Fe

b

2-M

ar

7-M

ar

10

-Ma

r

15

-Ma

r

18

-Ma

r

23

-Ma

r

28

-Ma

r

31

-Ma

r

5-A

pr

8-A

pr

13

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

ZincCONTANGO

BACKWARDATION


0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

29

-Ma

r

1-A

pr

4-A

pr

7-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

Zinc


STEEL & IRON ORE

Commodity Exchange Contract Open High Low CloseClose

% Change

Volume (in

lots)

Volume %

Change

Open

interest (in

lots)

OI

% Change

MCX Apr-11 6927 7087 6927 7087 2.07% 54 -55.37% 6 0.00%

ICEX Apr-11 7708 7939 7652 7671 -1.74% 252 -25.22% 14 -41.67%

IRON ORE

($/DMT)180.9 180.9 178.5 178.9 -1.43% - - - -

STEEL

LONGNCDEX May-11 28600 28740 28200 28600 -0.17% 76,170 98.41% 51,240 50.44%

IRON ORE

THE STEEL INDEX

CALENDAR SPREAD

-200.00

-100.00

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

21

-Ma

r

23

-Ma

r

25

-Ma

r

27

-Ma

r

29

-Ma

r

31

-Ma

r

2-A

pr

4-A

pr

6-A

pr

8-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

Steel Long - NCDEX

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

7,200

7,300

7,400

7,500

7,600

7,700

7,800

7,900

IRON ORE PRICES

ICEX (RHS) MCX(LHS)

Iron ore prices declined by nearly one and half percent to end at $178.9/Dry metric tonne (62% Fe Iron Ore –

the Steel Index). Prices also declined nearly 2 percent on ICEX while on MCX they ended higher with gains of

more than two percent

Prices drifted lower as demand from top consumer China waned at higher levels. Chinese steel mills have

stayed away from market after building stockpiles earlier

China’s daily steel crude steel output reached an all time high of 1.979 million tonnes in the first 10 ten days of

April. This is raising hope that demand for iron ore would increase at lower levels

Iron ore prices might remain under pressure in the near term. However at lower levels buying is expected to

emerge given strong steel production numbers

Steel long prices on NCDEX ended largely flat at 28,600/tonne. Spot ingot prices at Gobindgarh also largely

remained at 31,500 levels


DATA RELEASES SCHEDULED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

Date Time Region Event Period Survey Prior

25/04/2011 19:30 US New Home Sales MAR 280K 250K

25/04/2011 20:00 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity APR 13.4 11.5

26/04/2011 18:30 US S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index FEB - - 140.86

26/04/2011 19:30 US Consumer Confidence APR 64.5 63.4

26/04/2011 19:30 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index APR 20 20

27/04/2011 14:00 UK GDP (QoQ) 1Q A 0.50% -0.50%

27/04/2011 14:30 EC Industrial New Orders SA (MoM) FEB 1.50% 0.10%

27/04/2011 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders MAR 2.00% -0.90%

27/04/2011 22:00 US FOMC Rate Decision 27-Apr 0.25% 0.25%

27/04/2011 GE Consumer Price Index (MoM) APR P 0.20% 0.50%

28/04/2011 11:30 GE Import Price Index (MoM) MAR 1.10% 1.10%

28/04/2011 18:00 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index MAR - - -4.00%

28/04/2011 18:00 US GDP QoQ (Annualized) 1Q A 1.90% 3.10%

28/04/2011 18:00 US Personal Consumption 1Q A 2.10% 4.00%

28/04/2011 18:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 23-Apr 395K 403K

28/04/2011 18:00 US Continuing Claims 16-Apr 3680K 3695K

28/04/2011 19:30 US Pending Home Sales MoM MAR 1.70% 2.10%

28/04/2011 JN BOJ Target Rate 28-Apr 0.10% 0.10%

29/04/2011 11:30 GE Retail Sales (MoM) MAR 0.20% -0.30%

29/04/2011 14:30 EC Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) APR 2.70% 2.60%

29/04/2011 14:30 EC Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence APR F -11.4 -11.4

29/04/2011 14:30 EC Euro-Zone Economic Confidence APR 107 107.3

29/04/2011 14:30 EC Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate MAR 9.90% 9.90%

29/04/2011 18:00 US Personal Spending MAR 0.50% 0.70%

29/04/2011 18:00 US Personal Income MAR 0.40% 0.30%

29/04/2011 19:15 US Chicago Purchasing Manager APR 68.2 70.6

29/04/2011 19:25 US U. of Michigan Confidence APR F 70 69.6

PREPARED BY:

Sundeep Jain – Fundamental Analyst - [email protected]

Sandeep K – Technical Analyst – [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]



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A Weekly Report on Metals...14 17 22 25 2-r 7-r 10 r 15 r 18-r 23 r 28 r 31 r 5-r 8-13 r 18 21-Aluminium CONTANGO BACKWARDATION CALENDAR SPREAD ON MCX 0.00 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20