FUTURE SKILLS FOR THE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY IN NORTH WALES

(Wylfa and Trawsfynydd)

A report by Cogent Sector Skills Council

December 2011

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CONTENTS

Executive Summary and Recommendations..……...……….…….……………………..….….....4

1. Origin and Scope……….………………………………………………………………….……...7

2. Background.………………….…...……………………………………………………….…....…7

3. Secure, Low carbon Electricity…….…………………………………………………................7

4. Energy Island– Anglesey, Wales……………………………………….......………………......8

5. The Nuclear Workforce in Anglesey...…….….………………………...…….…………….......8

6. Workforce Demand without New Build.……………………….…………………………….....11

7. Nuclear Electricity Generation....................……………....……..........……...……...….........11

8. Workforce Demand with New Build.……..……………………………………………………..13

9. New Nuclear – Wales Workforce Metrics.....…………………..……...…………..…………..15

10. Demand for Apprentices and Graduates.………………………………………...…………...17

11. Specialist Nuclear Education Supply.……………………………………………...……….….17

12. Summary– Consultation Feedback………………………………………………...…………..21

Bibliography.……………………………………………………………………………...…….……..23

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Executive Summary and Recommendations

The Executive Summary highlights key labour market and power generation characteristics, together with future projections of future skills.

Where a recommendation is provided the relevant text is in bold typeface.

1. The Isle of Anglesey is already an important region for skills in the nuclear sector. It is also one of the regions in the vanguard of development of the new nuclear estate across the UK. The suc-cess of new nuclear in the Anglesey will be a major determinant of its success more generally.

2. North Wales supports 11% of UK civil nuclear employment and is an important contributor to nu-clear electricity generation overall.

3. The projected new nuclear programme at Wylfa will require 31,800 person years* of employment across the manufacturing, construction and operation workforce areas. This is the number equiva-lent of half the London 2012 Olympics construction project for the region, but with a greater de-mand for higher and specialist skills.

4. Nuclear provides approximately 70% of UK low carbon electricity. The nuclear estate hosted by the Anglesey region delivers approximately 10% of nuclear generated electricity and will thereby contribute around 7% to low carbon electricity generated across the UK during 2011.The nuclear industry in Wales plays an important role in the UK economy, currently supplying some 40% of Wales's electricity needs.

5. Current nuclear electricity generating capacity in the region is 0.98 GWe; sufficient to power 1.2m homes. Depending on the reactor design, a new power plant at Wylfa will provide of the order of 3.5 GWe. The region would provide over 20% of the projected UK nuclear generating capacity by 2025.

6. New build at Wylfa could produce the equivalent low carbon generating capacity of over 3,000 wind turbines; and up to 7,500 if generating efficiency is taken into account (assuming a UK aver-age of 1.5 MWe per turbine). Furthermore, the nuclear generating estate of the region would pro-vide a 60-year demand for high-tech employment in the region, together with significant extended and induced employment in the services sector.

7. At present Trawsfynydd (decommissioning); Wylfa (operating) provides employment for approxi-mately 1,400 people in Wales. Those directly employed by the operators are around 1,000 in number. The remainder are employed in the immediate supply chain to the industry, representing a high ratio of direct to indirect employment.

8. Overall, skill levels are high, with 78% of employment being at technical and associated profes-sional levels or higher.

* Construction projects accommodate many skilled workers, some for short periods only. In this manner the full-time equivalent (fte) in demand will convert to a multiple ‗headcount‘. Recent estimates place the upper limit of the employment ‗coefficient‘ for nuclear projects at three times the fte figure. To allow the employment demand to be accurately represented in the absence of established build profiles, and to capture the variety of task lengths, overall employment demand is given in units of person years; so that, 4 person years work might be carried out by 1 person for 4 years, 2 people for 2 years or 4 people for 1 year.

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9. The Welsh nuclear workforce is older, and retires earlier, than the UK workforce generally. This is in line with all other regions that host civil nuclear employment. The profile acts most harshly on the higher skilled and more experienced parts of the workforce, where up to 65% of employ-ees will retire by 2025.

10. By the end of 2014, electricity generation at Wylfa will transition to defueling ahead of decom-missioning. By 2016, Trawsfynydd will end its decommissioning preparation phase. Accounting for this, and without further demand for new build, the nuclear industry in Wales faces a reduc-tion of 95% in the workforce employed by 2030.

11. In July 2011, 8 sites were designated by the Secretary of State as potentially suitable for new nuclear, including Wylfa - nominated by NDA and Horizon Nuclear Power.

12. By 2020, the first of the projected new UK fleet of nuclear power stations is expected to have been commissioned and generating the first new nuclear electricity from Wylfa. The new power station will provide employment for 1,200 - 1,500 personnel.

13. It is highly likely that employment demand from new build in the region will occur in two or three phases, matching the staggered construction of reactors at the site. Each phase will raise de-mand for a peak of approximately 3,500 full-time equivalents (ftes). The second and third phase add a further 200-300 to the demand. Overall demand is distributed approximately as 60% con-struction, 25% operations and 15% manufacture.

14. The construction and operation workforce areas of new nuclear are likely to draw significantly from the regional labour pool. Engineering design of the reactor, however, is largely predeter-mined by the technologies of the global vendors. Local adoptions will, nevertheless, be re-quired.

15. New nuclear demand in the Manufacturing supply chain is likely to be of the order of 500 ftes per reactor unit. Global capacity and capability for major nuclear items, such as reactor pres-sure vessels, will determine some items, although many others can in principle be fabricated locally, or within the UK. The Welsh Government, Energy Island and other regional and na-tional stakeholders will wish to ensure that emerging opportunities are optimized for em-ployers in Wales. Companies in the supply chain, or those with an interest in joining the supply chain, should be encouraged to engage with the NIA’s supply chain portal SC@nuclear and the Nuclear Advanced Manufacturing Research Centre’s Fit for Nuclear (F4N) assessment programme

16. Three unit and two twin-unit nuclear power stations in the region by 2025 will require respec-tively, 31,800 or 21,200 person-years

* of activity depending on the type of reactor procured. In a

three unit station, this translates to 19,300 person years in construction and 7,600 person years in operations, the remainder being in manufacturing. Specifically this equates to a demand for approximately 250 apprentices and 100 graduates per year over the next 10 years. The opera-tional element will be full-time, and provide permanent employment for the 40-year initial operat-ing licence with a further 20 years likely, thereafter as operating licence extensions of this order should be within the lifetime specifications of the new technologies.

17. Given the timescale of more than a decade for new build activity, the supply of skills for the long-term demand will come from young people (14-21 year olds) in education and/or training today. The nuclear sector will demand large volumes of apprentices and graduates in science and en-gineering generally. Since the UK and the region are already producing large numbers of relevant graduates, the emphasis will need to be on sector attractiveness in the region. Working with employers, skills bodies and training providers need to promote engage-ment in Apprenticeships and Higher Level Apprenticeships as well as workplace Founda-tion Degrees with a view to those qualified remaining within the nuclear industry.

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18. An employer informed skills risk register has been recently published (Next Generation—Cogent, 2010) to identify the most at-risk skills associated with a first reactor unit. At the time of writing, these are in: Project Management, Safety case Authoring, High-integrity Welding, Design Engineering, Geotechnical Engineering, Manufacturing Engineering, Non-destructive Engineering, Control and Instrumentation, Planning and Estimating, Regulation. Although formally held by the Nuclear Energy Skills Alliance, the register should be evaluated, tested and developed on the basis of current and developing experience at Wylfa. Energy Island and the Nuclear Energy Skills Alliance should ensure that the skills risk register is reviewed as part of the preparation stage, and as new build begins in Anglesey.

19. In 2018, the regional demand for employees trained through apprentice and graduate routes peaks at approximately 3,600-3,700 ftes. This is mainly due to new build construction. However, it is stressed that this is the point at which the experienced personnel must be sourced; it is not the point at which the demand for skills should first trigger a response. Individually, employers must assess the stock and flow of their workforces in order to meet this demand for skills and experience in time to secure business. Jointly, the various employers, with Energy Island, the sector bod-ies, and other regional and national stakeholders should co-ordinate training suppliers and employers to produce business cases for training and subsequently promote their take up.

20. With a significant future in decommissioning, and as a possible second site for a new wave of nu-clear power plants, Wales is an important region in which to test the cross-sector Nuclear Apprentice scheme as proposed in the Next Generation report. The various regional bodies, local enterprise partnerships (where appropriate) and skills bodies, should work together to ensure that rele-vant nuclear modules are included within Apprenticeship schemes.

21. A small but critical supply of nuclear scientists and engineers will be required for operation, decom-missioning and waste management. Taught masters provision currently exists within a number of HEIs (The Nuclear Technology Education Consortium). However, recent changes to funding from the UK research councils will require close employer and HEI collaboration to ensure these courses continue to provide for the needs of UK nuclear community. The Sector Skills Coun-cil, together with the HEIs, Energy Island, other sector bodies, and other regional and na-tional stakeholders should ensure this is facilitated.

22. The Welsh Government should ensure that awareness of employment opportunities is high amongst teachers, career advisors, parents and young people, particularly within the context of the Energy Enterprise Zone.

23. The Welsh Government should give consideration to funding a specific and comprehensive study of the capacity and capability of the supply chain in North Wales and Northwest Eng-land, similar to that carried out on behalf of the Northern Way initiative by the Dalton Institute (http://dalton.manchester.ac.uk/for-business/nuclear-supply-chain)

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1. Origin and Scope

This report provides an outline of the current and fu-ture skills requirements for the nuclear workforce in Wales. The report has been produced for the Welsh Government by Cogent, the Sector Skills Council for the Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Oil and Gas, Petro-leum, Polymer and Nuclear Industries. The council exists to help employers in these science-using indus-tries address their workforce development needs. Within this remit, Cogent seeks to provide the best available labour market intelligence to help employ-ers, training providers and policy-makers to make in-formed decisions. Primary data for the analysis presented here was gath-ered in 2011.

The key findings will form part of the fourth report in Cogent‘s Renaissance series - Illuminations, adding value by drawing new and existing evidence together into a comprehensive and accessible summary.

The report extracts the regional workforce scenarios from the models developed and published in the Renaissance Series of Nuclear reports, namely: Power People: the Civil Nuclear Workforce 2009 – 2025 (Cogent, 2009) and Next Generation: Skills for New Build Nuclear (Cogent, 2010).

One of the main drivers for regional analyses is the potential for a significant influx of skills in this sector, driven by the projected new build programme in the UK. Wales is particularly important since it is likely to be in the vanguard of development for the new nu-clear estate.

A nuclear renaissance will stimulate a vital growth sector, and present a major opportunity for Anglesey and the wider Welsh economy in the construction, engineering and other development oriented sectors.

2. Background

On 19th July 2011, eight potentially suitable sites were

identified by the Secretary of State within the UK gov-ernment‘s National Policy Statement for Nuclear, in-cluding Wylfa (nominated by Horizon).

This opens up potential for the private sector to de-liver a new nuclear estate with generating capacity beyond current levels.

The full list of sites that are potential hosts of new nu-clear power stations are:

Hartlepool nominated by EDF Energy

Heysham nominated by EDF Energy

Sellafield nominated by NDA

Wylfa Peninsula nominated by NDA and Hori-zon Nuclear Power

Oldbury nominated by NDA and EON

Hinkley Point nominated by EDF Energy

Bradwell nominated by NDA

Sizewell nominated by EDF Energy

At the time of writing, Horizon Nuclear Power has undertaken ground investigations and ecological studies at Wylfa. The consortium has also signed a Planning Performance Agreement with the Isle of Anglesey County Council and published its State-ment of Community Consultation (SOCC). The choice of reactor type and vendor is expected in early 2012. This will allow the specific skills de-mand to be refined beyond the limits of the generic assumptions.

3. Secure, Low Carbon Electricity

For the UK to achieve a national commitment of an 80% reduction in green house gas emissions by 2050, electricity generation must be largely from low carbon energy sources.

As most of the current fleet of coal and nuclear power stations are due for replacement in the pe-riod leading up to 2030, there is an unprecedented opportunity for nuclear to make a major contribu-tion to low carbon electricity generation.

Nuclear Power is a primary energy source that is carbon free and coupled to an industry that offers: security of supply; a technology that has advanced in safety management; a national skills capacity and capability that covers the full fuel cycle; and, a power output to match that of any fossil fuel plant on a station-for-station basis.

Today nuclear is the prime provider of low carbon electricity - of the order of 70%. The Wylfa nuclear power station contributes around 7% of all low car-bon electricity generated across the UK.

However, all but one of the UK fleet of nuclear power stations is due to close over the next two decades - including the existing plant at Wylfa.

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4. Energy Island –Anglesey, Wales

The Energy Island Programme, launched in June 2010, was set up by the Isle of Anglesey County Council with the vision of establishing Anglesey as a world renowned centre of excellence for R&D, pro-duction and servicing of Low Carbon Energy devel-opments. The aim is to act as an enabler to de-risk these developments and maximise the socio-economic benefits for Anglesey and North Wales. The Energy Island Programme focuses on:

pro-actively co-ordinating public and private sector to support developments

pooling resources to get best benefit

new job creation

workstreams that include supply chain/inward in-vestment , education and skills, policy & consents, strategic infrastructure, community safety and communications

The Energy Island Forum consists of key stake-holders in a public/private partnership, including or-ganisations such as NDA, Magnox, EnergySolutions, the NSA Nuclear, Bangor University, Glyndwr Univer-sity Coleg Menai, Coleg Llandrillo, Horizon, National Grid, Centrica, npower, Gwynedd County Council, Ynys Mon County Council, Conwy County Council, Countryside Council for Wales, Snowdonia National Park, Welsh Government and UK Government. The end of generation, defueling and decommission-ing at Wylfa, and the completion of the care and maintenance preparation phase at Trawsfynydd, will result in the direct loss of some 1000 jobs.

Economic indicators already show that Anglesey has one of the weakest economies in the UK .

GVA is only 55% of the UK average

Anglesey has one of the highest rates of outward migration of young people in the UK;

There are now great opportunities for the develop-ment of low carbon electricity generation in North West Wales which should, over time, create signifi-cant new jobs. Proposed developments include :

Horizon Nuclear Power new build at Wylfa – po-tentially over 3 GWe of new nuclear generation

Gwynt y Mor off shore wind farm – 550 MW

Centrica offshore development – up to 4.2 GW

Marine Current Turbine development off North West Anglesey

Biomass at the Anglesey Aluminium site—up to 299 MW

Local microgeneration opportunities for farmers; small businesses, communities and householders

Work carried out by independent consultants URS identified that such developments could add a poten-tial £2.3 bn to the North Wales economy from low Carbon developments and adding possibly 10.2% to Anglesey‘s GVA as well as creating in excess of 2000 permanent jobs beyond 2025. it is estimated that up to 80% of these benefits will come from the new nu-clear development. The Energy Island Programme is an exciting and in-novative initiative which has the potential to transform the economy of Anglesey and north west Wales.

5. The Nuclear Workforce in Anglesey

Wales has 11% of the civil nuclear workforce and the fourth largest electricity generation workforce (600 employed) in the UK. The Anglesey region and its skilled employees thereby contribute significantly to UK electricity generating capacity.

The nuclear industry today provides direct employ-ment in Wales for approximately 1,000 people: ap-proximately 600 are employed in electricity genera-tion at Wylfa; 400 are employed in Decommissioning at Trawsfynydd; the remainder is employed in the direct supply chain.

Table 5.1 The Current Civil Nuclear Estate, Wales

Wylfa Trawsfynydd

Operation Start 1971 1965

End 2014 1993

Defueling Start 2014 1993

End 2017 1995

Decommissioning Start 2017 1998

End 2025 2016

Reactor 2 Magnox

Operator SLC-Magnox; EnergySolutions; NDA

Location Anglesey, Wales Gwynedd, Wales

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To assess the nuclear workforce in Wales, we have used available data on current and projected levels of employment by nuclear sites in Wales and amalga-mated the data to form a representation of nuclear workforce in Wales.

5.1 Employment Sectors

By far the major contributions to employment are in the Electricity Generation and Decommissioning sectors (Figure 5.1).

Figure 5.1 Civil Nuclear Workforce

Figure 5.2 Occupational Distribution

5.2 Occupational Distribution

The three core nuclear ‗job contexts‘ of Energy Produc-tion, Decommissioning and Maintenance make up 44% of the workforce with the remainder in supporting, ser-vice, and value-adding roles.

Examples are: Project Management, Engineering Design, Safety and Security, and Business (Figure 5.2).

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The tier 1 nuclear workforce in Wales is taken to be the total of the employees at Trawsfynydd (defuelled and under decommissioning since 1995) and Wylfa (an operational power station with two Magnox nuclear reactors).

Magnox North is the management and operations contractor of both sites in Wales under contract to the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority.

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5.3 Skill Level

Overall skill levels are high, with 78% of employment being at technical/associated professional level (L3/L4), or higher in management and senior management levels (L4+) (Figure 5.3). Employment in this category is of the order of 780.

5.4 Age Profile

The civil nuclear workforce in the Wales is ageing and retires early. (Figures 5.4.1 and 5.4.2). This is in line with the pattern for the UK nuclear workforce gener-ally. Notable statistics are: (i) 59% of the workforce in the region is aged 45 and above; and, (ii) 65-70% of the highly skilled managers and professionals are over 45 years of age.

5.5 Retirement Profile

The accumulated retirement profile of this workforce corresponds to an attrition of over half of the workforce by 2025. (Figure 5.5.1). As would be expected, the greatest reduction is from the higher and more mature skill levels and older workers, so that, at occupational levels 4 and 5 (Professional and Manager/Senior Manager), up to two-thirds of these skills pools will be lost by 2025 (Figure 5.5.2).

Figure 5.3 Skill Level Workforce

Figure 5.4.1 Age Profile

Figure 5.4.2 Age by Skill Level

Figure 5.5.1 Accumulated Retirement Profile

Figure 5.5.2 Retirement by Skill Level 2025

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49%

48%

55%

50%

69%

36%

32%

27%

32%

32%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Semi- Skilled

Skilled

Technician/ Team Leader

Professional/ Middle Manager

Senior Manager

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UK

workforce

Nuclear

Workforcein Wales

1%

21%

39%

54%

0

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400

500

600

2011 2011-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025

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Senior Manager

Professional/Middle Manager

Technician/ TeamLeader

Skilled

Semi- Skilled

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6. Workforce Demand without New Build

Forecasts of employment demand without new build are reliable and reflect the lifetime plans of the existing estate in both the Electricity Generation and Decom-missioning sectors. Wylfa‘s scheduled transition to de-commissioning during 2012-2014, and the end of care and maintenance at Trawsfynydd in 2016 are the main workforce level determinants. As a result, the employ-ment demand will decline from 1,000 to 270 by 2017 and it is forecasted to reduce further to about 50 by the end of 2025.

7. Nuclear Electricity Generation

Horizon Nuclear Power has indicated its intention to build a new nuclear power station at the Wylfa site de-clared in the National Policy Statement for Nuclear published in July 2011. However, the reactor technol-ogy, which will determine the number of units and the construction methodology, has not yet been publicly identified. This means that the a number of permuta-tions remain possible which will affect the workforce demand—from on-site construction through to the sup-ply chain. The current analysis looks at some of the details of both twin and triple reactor configurations. At this stage this gives the broad build profiles and sug-gests where more detailed information will become available.

Figure 7.1 illustrates a triple unit scenario for nuclear electricity generation at Wylfa, based on the models developed in the Next Generation report (Cogent 2010).

A period of stable electricity generation is likely to end by 2014. New nuclear electricity generation may start to build up again from 2020 and increase in stages to 3.5 GWe by 2025 (20% of UK capacity in nuclear).

Over a quarter of this workforce will transition to decommissioning followed by managed decline in tandem with securing the safe remediation of the site. Figure 6.1 illustrates a general 95% decline in the civil nuclear workforce by 2026. This portrays the shift to decommissioning operations and the decline of most other ‗job contexts‘.

Figure 6.1 Civil Nuclear Workforce Demand- (Wylfa and Trawsfynydd) (without New Build)

In this picture there is a five year gap during which nuclear electricity generation would be suspended in the region (current capacity is in the region of 0.98 GWe). An indicative timeline for this construc-tion, as customized from the Next Generation re-port (Cogent 2010) is given in Figure 7.2.

The nuclear electricity generated in Wales from a three-unit power station, for example, could pro-duce the equivalent low carbon electricity of over 3,000 wind turbines; and up to 7,500 if generating efficiency is taken into account (assuming a UK average of 1.5 MWe per turbine). Furthermore, the nuclear generating estate of the region would provide a 60-year demand for high-tech employ-ment in the region, together with significant ex-tended and induced employment.

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Figure 7.1 Nuclear Electricity Generation Power Output at Wylfa 2009-2025

Figure 7.2 New Nuclear Electricity Generation 2011-2025

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8. Workforce Demand with New Build

An estimate of the workforce required to operate each new three-unit station is of the order of 1,100-1,300. This is based on a level of 500 for the first reactor unit, together with efficiency savings of the order of 25% for the consecutive reactors and associated HQ services.

Figure 8.1 illustrates the build up of the various work-force areas for a single PWR reactor. Figure 8.2 inte-grates this across the timeline of figure 7.2 to give an integrated demand for four new PWR reactors as twin-units in each of two stations. The same information is portrayed as separated demands for each workforce area in figure 8.3.

The approximate employment distribution during the course of construction to commissioning and operation is 60% construction. 25% operations and 15% manu-facturing. The construction and operation of new nu-clear is likely to draw significantly from the regional la-bour pool. Construction marks a sharp influx of a tran-sient workforce.

Operations builds up gradually to full complement in time for hand-over into operation. (figures 8.1 and 8.2).

It is highly likely that employment demand from new build in the region will occur in phases, re-flecting staggered developments at the site. Triple reactor build raises demand for approximately 5,200 full-time equivalents (fte), and twin units approximately 3,600 fte.

Although the employment demand is in units of fte for comparison with the largely full-time and per-manent operations workforce, ‗headcounts‘ that are a multiple of the fte are common in construc-tion activities - construction projects accommo-date many skilled contributions, some for short periods only. Recent estimates place the upper level of this employment ‗coefficient‘ for nuclear projects at three times the fte.

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Figure 8.2 Workforce Demand 3.5 GWe- Integrated (incl. Supply Chain)

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There is currently insufficient data to include new build manufacturing workforce demand in Figures 8.1-8.5. However, local engineering manufacturers have oppor-tunity in the supply chain to support the tier-one nuclear manufacturers. Successful local manufacturers may have significant global opportunities with the nuclear vendor companies. A number of issues related to the regional supply chain capacity and capability are noted in section 12.

The supply chain is likely to support of the order of 500 fte per reactor unit.

Both construction and operation are likely to draw significantly from the regional labour pool. How-ever, the amount of locally sourced manufacture and construction will ultimately depend on the type of reactor chosen by Horizon Nuclear Power.

The profile of Figure 8.4 suggests that an active workforce transitioning programme, working be-tween old and new, is necessary to make efficient use of existing skills and knowledge.

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Figure 8.3 New Build Workforce - 3.5 GWe Approximation Model

Figure 8.4 Demand New Build - 3.5 GWe Approximation Model

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9. New Nuclear – Wales Workforce Metrics

For new build alone, a total of 31,800 person years of employment is predicted for the region for a 3 reactor station. Whether and where pinch-points in skills supply will exist, depends to a large degree on nuclear activi-ties elsewhere in the UK. Seven or eight reactors are projected to be in various stages of development around 2020 according to the Next Generation scenario (Cogent 2010). Regardless of the timeline, 31,800 person years will be the demand for the region for three reactors in one sta-tion. A shorter timeline will simply raise the peak de-mand and a longer timeline will correspondingly reduce it. For construction and operations workforce areas separately, this amounts to 22,800 and 9,000 person years respectively, during the active period. The latter will largely be full-time and permanent

employment for the 40-years of the initial operat-ing license with a further 20 years likely thereafter, as operating licence extensions of this order are likely to be sanctionable within the specifications of the new technologies. As noted above, the construction workforce is, by nature, transient and the ftes will convert to multiple ‗headcounts‘ of employment, typically three times the fte figure.

Table 9.1 summarises a number of metrics for a 3.6 GWe triple reactor station. Although demand is of the order of tens of thousands, for some occupations, capability rather than capacity may be the critical aspect. Table 9.2 represents an employer peer reviewed Skills Risk Register for the

first new build reactor, first produced for the Next Generation report and currently subject to review by the Nuclear Energy Skills Alliance.

It is also recognised that HR management skills will also be critical to a successful new build pro-gramme.

Table 9.1 New Nuclear – Wales Workforce Metrics

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Table 9.2 Critical Skills Risk Register2

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Notes 1. Production, Mechanical, Electrical, Chemical 2. Graduate, technical, craft 3. The risk assessment for Non-destructive engineers differs between Equipment Manufacture and Engineering Construction. This may

reflect a margin of error, or a real difference in the respective employment environments. Further data refinement, particularly with regard to potential mobility between the sectors, will address this.

4. S = 1-3y, M = 4-5y, L = 6-9y 5. Product of probability of current skill deficit and demand timescale

Risk Register for a Single

Reactor Unit

Skill Area or Competence

Estimated Number (peak de-

mand)

Probability of current skill deficit

High =3 Medium = 2

Low =1

Demand timescale4 Short = 3

Medium= 2 Long = 1

Risk of skill gap5

Priority rating

High -7-9 Medium-4-6 Low -1-3

1. Design & Planning

Project and Programme Managers 25 3 3 9 High

Safety Case Authors 50 3 3 9 High

Design Engineers (various)1 140 3 3 9 High

Geotechnical Engineers not available 3 3 9 High

Environmental Engineers not available 3 2 6 Medium

Regulators not available 3 3 9 High

2. Equipment Manufacture

Design Engineers (various)2 50 3 3 9 High

Manufacturing Engineers1 40 3 3 9 High

Control & Instrumentation 50 3 3 9 High

Welders (high integrity, materials) 40 3 3 9 High

Cost Control 15 1 3 3 Low

Non-Destructive Engineer3 20 3 2 6 Medium

3. Engineering Construction

Planners/Estimators 100 3 3 9 High

Non-Destructive Engineers3 40 3 3 9 High

Welders (40% high integrity) 200 3 2 6 Medium

First-line Supervision 64 3 2 6 Medium

Mechanicals2 1000 2 2 4 Medium

Electricals2 200 2 3 6 Medium

Control and Instrumentation 70 3 2 6 Medium

Manufacturing Engineers1 not available 1 2 2 Low

Scientists not available 2 1 2 Low

4. Commissioning Operation Maintenance (note: all active from 2015, thus medium risk at most currently)

Energy Production Operations 150 1 2 2 Low

Maintenance Operations 150 1 2 2 Low

Safety & Security 100 1 2 2 Low

Radiation Protection 20 2 2 4 Medium

Project Management 30 3 2 6 Medium

Engineering Design 30 3 2 6 Medium

Scientific &Technical Support 25 2 2 4 Medium

Commercial 150 1 1 1 Low

5. General Nuclear Culture and Ex-perience of the Workforce

The basic requirements of working on nuclear sites in the UK

1,000 2 3 6 Medium

The understanding and awareness of the nuclear industry

1,000 2 3 6 Medium

The Project Management skills re-quired to deliver effective projects

200 3 3 9 High

The Quality Control/Quality Assurance skills and processes to maintain the highest standards of quality and safety across the sector

200 3 2 6 Medium

Adequate and relevant Capability/Experience of the sector

500 3 3 9 High

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10. Demand for Apprentices and Graduates

Given the timescale of more than a decade for new build activity, the supply of skills for the long-term demand will come from young people (14-21 year olds) in education and/or training today.

The nuclear sector will demand large volumes of ap-prentices and graduates in science and engineering generally, with actual levels approximated from the demand for each level of job in the various workforce areas. Tables 10.1-10.3 provide some guidance as to the demand for experienced personnel from these routes.

In 2018, the regional demand for employees trained through apprentice and graduate routes peaks at ap-proximately 7,600 (Table 10.3). This is mainly due to new build construction. However, it is stressed that this is the point at which the experienced personnel must be sourced; it is not the point at which the demand for skills should first trigger a response.

Securing the skills for the first two reactors will be critical. When the new build programme becomes established, the complex construction projects will be vast ‗campuses‘ of training for the next genera-tion of skills.

To enable career transition and encourage new entrants into the industry, Cogent has ensured that all nuclear industry related apprenticeships are included in its Industry Career Pathways.

This includes the opportunity for up-skilling using units from the Qualifications and Credit Framework to enable existing employees to gain the skills required, ensuring a secure decommissioning process and a successful new build programme. However such an approach requires flexible train-ing provision from industry providers and Cogent will work with the National Skills Academy for Nu-clear to identify most appropriate delivery meth-ods.

11. Specialist Nuclear Education and

Training

While much of the skilled supply from universities will sit across science and engineering, there will be a need for a number of specialisms for nuclear. Table 11.1 records the graduation subject areas of UK domiciled science and engineering students produced within Wales and in the UK.

Four universities within the UK collectively offer 11 undergraduate foundation degree courses with the term ―nuclear‖ in the title. In addition, Gen II (in Cumbria) and Working Higher (a HEFCE initiative involving Cogent) will provide dedicated workforce development programmes.

Coleg Menai, the Wales hub for the NSA-nuclear, has constructed a new Energy Skills Cen-tre to be the centre of training for the nuclear in-dustry covering Wales.

According to HESA 2009/2010, there were 39 physics students at postgraduate level, and an-other 511 students at undergraduate level study-ing physics in institutions within Wales.

The low incidence of work-based learning at foun-dation degree level is the target of a HEFCE Work-ing Higher project. Under this initiative, a nuclear engineering foundation degree course will be de-livered as a work-based Foundation Degree for the Nuclear Industry with Coleg Menai as part of the franchised network.

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Table 10.3 Demand for Apprentices and Graduates

Rounded to nearest 10

Nuclear Industry Peak

Demand Average per year

New Build Operation 1,500 150

New Build Construction 1,200 120

Manufacturing* 1,000 100

Existing Operations (incl. supply chain)

Integrated Demand 3,700 360

Table 10.2 Demand for Graduates

Nuclear Industry Peak

Demand Average per year

New Build Operation 810 80

New Build Construction 180 20

Manufacturing* 350 35

Existing Operations (incl. supply chain)

Integrated Demand 1,350 140

Rounded to nearest 10

Table 10.1 Demand for Apprentices

Rounded to nearest 10

Nuclear Industry Peak

Demand Average per year

New Build Operation 690 70

New Build Construction 1000 100

Manufacturing* 650 65

Existing Operations (incl. supply chain)

Integrated Demand 2,350 230

*Most of the manufacture is unlikely to be in Wales.

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Source: HESA Students in HE Institutions 2009/2010

Source: UCAS 2010

Table 11.1 HE Science and Engineering Students 2009/2010 - Institutions in Wales.

Post graduate

Under graduate

Foundation degree

Wales UK Wales UK Wales UK

Chemistry 128 2,902 484 13,832 40 587

Physics 39 2,489 511 11,471 0 253

Geology 59 1,272 471 6,426 0 359

Mathematics 33 2,220 936 24,273 0 2,304

Statistics 0 617 23 1,661 0 441

Computer science 293 4,914 1,941 39,534 610 7,774

General engineering 94 2,856 245 9,644 197 2,601

Civil engineering 145 3,712 861 12,403 297 2,438

Mechanical engineering 42 1,845 725 14,741 413 2,392

Electronic & electrical engineering 82 2,542 548 12,586 336 3,369

Production & manufacturing engineering 36 816 105 2,686 16 664

Chemical, process & energy engineering 56 1,642 99 3,907 0 216

Biotechnology 0 118 6 235 0 0

STEM Total 1,006 28,130 6,954 153,669 1,909 23,425

Table 11.2 Current UK HE Provision for Nuclear

Undergraduate

Institutions Degree Course Title

University of Brighton FdEng/NucE Nuclear Engineering

Lancaster University MEng Nuclear Engineering

University of Leeds MEng (4yr FT) Chemical and Nuclear Engineering

The University of Liverpool BSc Physics with Nuclear Science

The University of Manchester BEng Mechanical Engineering with Nuclear Engineering

University of Central Lancashire FdSc Nuclear Decommissioning

FdEng/ENuc/HNC Engineering (Nuclear)

FdSc Nuclear Project Management & Programme Control

FdSc Nuclear Related Technology - Science & Processes

FdSc Nuclear Related Technology - Commissioning & Mainte-nance

FdSc Nuclear Related Technology - Instrumentation & Control

FdSc HVAC Energy Engineering

FdSc Nuclear Project Leadership

University of Leeds MEng Chemical and Nuclear Engineering

Nottingham Trent University BSc Physics with Nuclear Technology

University of Surrey BSc Physics with Nuclear Astrophysics (3 or 4 years)

Imperial College, London MEng Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering

MEng Chemical and Nuclear Engineering

MEng

Materials and Nuclear Engineering

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Postgraduate

Institutions Degree Course Title

Nuclear Technology Education Consortium (NTEC)*

MSc Nuclear Science & Technology

PG Dip Nuclear Science & Technology

PG Cert Nuclear Science & Technology

University of Birmingham MSc Physics & Technology of Nuclear Reactors

MSc Medical and Radiation Physics

PGDip/PGCert

Radioactive Waste Management and Decommissioning

University of Glasgow Short

course Radiation Protection

Lancaster University MSc Safety Engineering

MSc Decommissioning and Environmental Clean-up

University of Central Lancashire PGCert Environmental Governance & Information

PGCert English for Nuclear Decommissioning

University of Liverpool MSc Radiometrics

University of Manchester MSc Nuclear and Radiation Physics

MSc Environmental Management & Technology (subject to approval)

PhD Nuclear Engineering Doctorate

University of Surrey MSc Radiation and Environmental Protection

MSc Radiation Detection & Instrumentation

Scottish Universities Environmental Research Centre (Previously Scottish Universities Re-search & Reactor Centre)

Postgraduate teaching in environmental geochemistry and radioactivity, isotope geology and isotopes in bio-medical and ecological processes.

University of Strathclyde CPD Radiation Protection

University College London Radiation Physics (Medical Applications)

Defence Academy Nuclear Department, A range of nuclear related courses are available to MOD and civilian personnel

The Joint Department of Physics, The Royal Marsden NHS Trust & Institute of Cancer Research together with Department of Medi-cal Engineering & Physics, King's College Hospital NHS Trust.

Radiation Protection Training Course

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*The consortium is the Nuclear Technology Education Consortium (NTEC) comprises the Universities of Birmingham, Central Lancashire, Lancaster, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester and Sheffield, City University, London, Defence Academy - College of Management and Tech-nology, Imperial College London and UHI Millennium Institute.

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Source: UCAS 2010

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Cogent and the National Skills Academy for Nuclear have responsibility for the development of standards and qualifications for the industry, including the Nu-clear Skills Passport.

The Passport includes a facility for new entrants from other sectors to top-up their original sector competen-cies with nuclear awareness, behaviours and cultures. It is already designated as ‗desirable for Supply Chain Contracts‘ by the utility and vendor companies in the first wave of new nuclear.

Currently workforce qualifications and training that are under development include: a Certificate of Nuclear Professionalism, a Foundation Degree for the Nuclear industry, and standards and training modules that are accredited and recorded through the Nuclear Skills Passport.

Work-based learning will be augmented at foundation degree level with a FdEng Nuclear Engineering course running at Coleg Menai from 2012.

According to current UCAS records, there are 9 HE and 3 FE institutions offering Engineering and Physics courses in Wales. In addition, many undergraduate engineering and physics degrees (BEng, MEng, BSc, MPhys, MSc) have nuclear options which contribute up to 30% of the final degree.

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12. Summary Feedback- Stakeholder

Consultation Wales

The following is a distillation of the views of a cross section of employers, training providers and others from consultation workshop held 7

th September 2011.

A common thread throughout is the importance of an understanding of the skills gaps to allow proper phasing of interventions and training pro-vision. This will be greatly facilitated by the identifica-tion of the reactor technology to used at Wylfa.

Skills needs/regional infrastructure context/alignment of accreditation

There will be a balance to be struck between identify-ing the detailed demand picture and broader defini-tions that might be more useful at the point of recruit-ment. Examples of the level of specificity are given as – electronic engineering rather than engineering, high integrity welding rather than welding. Similarly there is a trade-off between the local workforce and the use of workers from outside of the area to provide specialist skills. Finding the balance needs more work to de-velop a socio-economic map.

Further Education providers have some of the required capacity, and pathways are understood, however there is a lack of careers advisors, who in turn will need timely labour market information.

Supply chain capacity and capability

The supply chain in North Wales and Anglesey is cur-rently directed towards electricity generation and de-commissioning at Trawsfynydd. A number of respon-dents point out that this gives a well established nu-clear supply chain base that will be a significant re-source for nuclear new build, although one that will need to be augmented, through:

upskilling of the existing workforce

encouraging non-nuclear companies to gain capa-bility and accreditation to supply for new build

drawing upon the high technology industries of De-eside and Northwest England.

This will require time and a sufficient supply of advice and guidance relating to areas of demand, timing and the steps necessary to join the supply chain. A spe-cific suggestion is to pair local suppliers with special-ist outside suppliers.

Important support for the existing, and potential, supply chain is provided through the Nuclear In-dustry Association SC@nuclear programme and the Nuclear Advanced Manufacturing Research Centre’s Fit for Nuclear assessment.

Training providers capacity and capability

Despite the absence of detail in some skill require-ments, the Further Education sector in the region has been strengthened by the planning and investment already made by Coleg Menai and Coleg Llandrillo.

on a partial understanding of the actual need. Sup-port from national and sectoral resources for the National Skills Academies for Nuclear and Con-struction, and the ECITB will be sought to help manage specialist training.

It is recognised, nevertheless, that Further Edu-cation capacity is already being extended in partnership with specialist providers. While this is the case, the Welsh Government needs to monitor development and ensure any neces-sary additional government level facilitative actions are put into place.

Impact of displacement on local companies

Nuclear new build is a disruptive development that implies both challenges and opportunities. One of those is the displacement of skills from existing industrial activity towards power station construc-tion. The flow of skilled workers from one industrial sector to another means that apprenticeship train-ing will not be directed solely towards the nuclear industry, but will also be required to backfill vacan-cies elsewhere.

While displacement is inevitable, such labour mar-ket ‗churn‘ can help to stimulate the local employ-ment market provided employers are sufficiently well briefed to respond. Awareness needs to be raised among teacher, parents and young peo-ple. This will then be an opportunity to develop a regional talent pool.

Once again, early data on likely skill gaps can con-tribute to the management of displacement effects.

Key challenges in promoting nuclear in Wales

A range of challenges have been identified by sur-vey respondents, from the comparatively remote location, set aside difficulties in conveying the posi-tive opportunities, balancing upskilling and re-skilling against inward skills migration, to the man-agement of decommissioning waste. Crucially, tim-ing and the accuracy of demand information to al-low the correct phasing of supply chain capability and education and training provision appeared as a common theme.

There was a sense that too much expectation rested on one solution, and in this regard the Welsh Government’s role in defining the mean-ing of the Energy Enterprise Zone is important. This also deals with a perception that the new build agenda is being set elsewhere in the UK.

Finally there is a significant challenge in minimising to an acceptable level (and to be seen to have done so) the impact on the environment, tourism and agriculture in the region.

Horizon Nuclear Power has publicly recognised the existence of a skilled talent pool in the region and pointed to the benefits of new build at Wylfa in sup-porting local employment. However the both the capability and capacity of the local workforce

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must match the particular requirements for safe con-struction of a Generation III reactor power station.

Maximising local employment

Local workers will need the qualifications and attitudes consistent with the SQEP (suitably qualified and ex-perienced person) philosophy, together with an under-standing that transfer to the new activity depends on this and is not automatic. The managing of this poten-tial expectation is crucial.

Overall the new build programme must generate new opportunities, with uptake following from engagement through ‗inspiration and aspiration‘.

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Bibliography

1. Power People: The Civil Nuclear Workforce, 2009

http://www.cogent-ssc.com/research/renaissance_i.php

Technical Annex; http://www.cogent-ssc.com/research/Publications/Technical_Annex.pdf 2. Next Generation: Skills for New Build Nuclear, 2010

http://www.cogent-ssc.com/research/Publications/Renaissance2.pdf

Technical Annex; http://www.cogent-ssc.com/research/Publications/Technical_Annex_-_Next_Generation-_Skills_for_New_Build_Nuclear.pdf

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Cogent SSC Ltd.,

Unit 5, Mandarin Court,

Centre Park,

Warrington,

Cheshire WA1 1GG

www.cogent-ssc.com

© Cogent Sector Skills Council December 2011