A Project Repoet on Future of Agri

8/4/2019 A Project Repoet on Future of Agri

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PROJECT REPORT ON

FUTURE OF AGRICULTRE

MARKETING

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Rice that needs no cooking, only soakingIndian scientists claim to have developed a rice variety that requiresno cooking, only soaking in water. The rice variety developed atCutback based Central Rice Research Institute (CRRI). It ischaracterized by low amylase content and becomes soft on soaking in

water, institute director TK Adhya said. The variety could serve specificniche consumers and make rice cooking a hassle-free affair. The newvariety, named Aghanibora, tested by the institute is of 145 daysduration with a yield of 4-4.5 tonnes per hectare and is at par with thecurrently grown rice varieties in the country. "One can get ready to eatrice after soaking it for about 45 minutes in ordinary water, and 15minutes if soaked in lukewarm water, whereas other rice varieties needcooking," Adhya said. The rice is a local improved land variety ofAssam under the `Komal chawl' category and is not GM rice. It is likeany other rice variety grown and consumed in India. "However, thisvariety is usually prepared as parboiled rice and then it can be used for

consumption after milling," the researcher said. Scientists at theinstitute have done extensive research over the past three years andtested its nutritional properties and other biochemical par a meters, hesaid. According to the institute director, the rice variety can be grownin all the eastern states of Assam, Bihar, West Bengal, Orissa andcoastal Andhra Pradesh. We do not have specific data about theaverage household requirement of fuel. But this variety of rice will helpin saving fuel, at least for cooking of rice. Moreover, it will be a relief tohousewives

AGRICULTURE TODAY

MAGAZINE Fri 01, October 2010

PROJECT REPORT MADE & SUBMITED BY:

ROLL NO. NAME

02 BAXI VISHVAK P.

MBA (AGRI-BUSINESS)SEM-I

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PROJECT REPORT SUBMITED TO:

PROF. NUPUR SHARMA

CENTRE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES

GANPAT UNIVERSITY

INDIEX

PAGE NO. PARTCULAR

03 HISTORY OF ARICULTURE

05 AGRICULTURE IN INDIA

07 INDIAN AGRO PRODUCTS

16 CHANGING LAND USE & FUTURE OF AGRICALTURE

17 AGRICULTURE IN THE CHANGING GLOBAL SCENARIO

18 EXTENSION STRATEGIES

20 TECHNOLOGICAL NEEDS AND FUTURE AGRICULTURE

28 FUTURE OF FOOD GRAIN PRODUCTION IN INDIA

30 CHANGING GRAIN ORIENTATION

31 FERTILIZER USAGE

33 PROJECTION

36 PROJECTED VALUES

37 CONCLUSION

39 AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY

40 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

41 RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

42 THE FUTURE OF AGRICULTURE DEPENDS ON BIODIVERSITY

45 POSSIBILITY OF REDUCING COSTS AND MARGINS POLICY IMPLICATIONS

48 POLICY FOR FURTHER IMPROVEMENT

49 MARKETING CHANNELS

53 WAREHOUSING

56 PICTURE OF FUTURE AGRICULTURE

57 MESSAGE

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History of Agriculture

Agriculture, since its invention and inception, has been the prime andforemost activity of every culture and civilization throughout the

history of mankind. Agricultural practices secured the food supply. Italso resulted in establishment of farming settlements thatsubsequently grew in villages, towns, cities, states, countries andempires.

The history of agriculture is broadly divided in four phases, differingwidely in date according to the region. The four phases are

1. Prehistoric Agriculture- Believed to have started near 10,000 BC orearlier, it is considered as first prototype of agricultural modules. Themain agricultural sites were in southeast and southwest Asia, in what

are now India, Iran, Iraq, Israel and the adjoining areas. Nile River inEgypt, Danube in Europe and Indus-Gaga in India were the main centerof the agricultural farmlands.

This was the age of agricultural innovations as many new tools andpractices were invented due to compulsion of planting, sustaining andharvesting the crops. Use of wooden and earthen tools as well as somedomesticated animals is major highlights of this period.

2. Historical Agriculture: This age roughly covers the period from 2500BC to 500 BC. It marks the introduction of metals in agricultural tool

making. Agricultural sites meanwhile grew proficient and coveredmuch of Southeast Asia, middle-east, Europe, North America andeastern Asia.

Mechanicals improvements in agricultural implements anddevelopment of storage and irrigation method mark the highlight ofthis age. For the first time, trade in agriculture also started, becomingthe precursor to modern agribusiness industry.

3. Feudal Agriculture: The feudal age of agriculture ranges from 500 BCto 1700 AD, reaching its height near 1000 AD and then getting static

thereafter.

This period is chiefly characterized by expansion of agriculture andirrigation and consolidation of agricultural methods. Use of fertilizers,in form of natural manures to boost production was a majorbreakthrough of this period.

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The usual practice of this age was of intensive agricultural throughoutEurope, Middle East and southeastern Asia.

4. Scientific Agriculture: By 17th century AD world was seeing a rapidrise in its population. This was also the age of imperial expansions in

Asia, Africa, Americas and oceanic countries.

These led to exploration of new methods and practices in agriculture. Italso resulted in increased attention on commercial form of agriculturethat was based solely on profit than subsistence purposes. Agriculturetrade assumed global proportions and many new economies thrived onspecialized production of one or other agricultural products.

Industrial revolution also led to many new inventions for agriculturalsector, particularly in irrigation, sowing, and harvesting techniques. Butit was the modern inventions in biotechnology and genetics that have

completely changed the form of agriculture production. New variantsof seeds and plants are manufactured in laboratories and geneticallymodified to suit particular consumption and commercial needs. Thishas enabled the world to meet the food demands of for a populationthat is crossing 6.5 billion marks.

The entire agribusiness and its support industries are oriented towards production,

packaging, marketing and sales of agricultural produces. There are a large number ofitems that come under agricultural produces, each of them with its own sub-products,

byproducts and multiple varieties that make agribusiness such extensive and profitablesector.

The major agricultural produces are divided in following categories

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Animal and

Animal

Products

Cereals

and Pulses

Dry

Fruits

Plant

ProductsSeeds Spices Beverages

Mutton Barley Almond FlowersCocoa

SeedsAsafetida Tea

Dairy Products Maize CashewFruits andVegetables

VegetableSeeds

Basil Coffee

Poultry Wheat Coconut Sugarcane GM seeds Cardamom Wine

Animal Feed Rice Peanut Herbs Chilly

Gram Walnut Tobacco Ginger

Beans Mustard

Peeper

Saffron

Tamarind

Agriculture in India

Indias record of progress in agriculture over the past fourdecades has been quite impressive. The agriculture sector has beensuccessful in keeping pace with rising demand for food. Thecontribution of increased land area under agricultural production hasdeclined over time and increases in production in the past two decades

have been almost entirely due to increased productivity. Contributionof agricultural growth to overall progress has been widespread.Increased productivity has helped to feed the poor, enhanced farmincome and provided opportunities for both direct and indirectemployment. The success of Indias agriculture is attributed to a seriesof steps that led to availability of farm technologies which broughtabout dramatic increases in productivity in 70s and 80s oftendescribed as the Green Revolution era. The major sources ofagricultural growth during this period were the spread of modern cropvarieties, intensification of input use and investments leading toexpansion in the irrigated area. In areas where Green Revolutiontechnologies had major impact, growth has now slowed. Newtechnologies are needed to push out yield frontiers, utilize inputs moreefficiently and diversify to more sustainable and higher value croppingpatterns. At the same time there is urgency to better exploit potentialof rained and other less endowed areas if we are to meet targets ofagricultural growth and poverty alleviation. Given the wide range ofagro ecological setting and producers, Indian agriculture is faced with a

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great diversity of needs, opportunities and prospects. Future growthneeds to be more rapid, more widely distributed and better targeted.These challenges have profound implications for the way farmersproblems are conceived, researched and transferred to the farmers.On the one hand agricultural research will increasingly be required to

address location specific problems facing the communities on the otherthe systems will have to position themselves in an increasinglycompetitive environment to generate and adopt cutting edgetechnologies to bear upon the solutions facing a vast majority ofresource poor farmers.

In the past agriculture has played and will continue to play adominant role in the growth of Indian economy in the foreseeable

future. It represents the largest sector producing around 28 percent ofthe GDP, is the largest employer providing more than 60 percent of thejobs and is the prime arbiter of living standards for seventy percent ofIndias population living in the rural areas. These factors together witha strong determination to achieve self-sufficiency in food grainsproduction have ensured a high priority for agriculture sector in thesuccessive development plans of the country.

An important facet of progress in agriculture is its success ineradication of its critical dependence on imported food grains. In the1950s nearly 5 percent of the total food grains available in the country

were imported. This dependence worsened during the 1960s whentwo severe drought years led to a sharp increase in import of foodgrains. During 1966 India had to import more than 10 million tones offood grains as against a domestic production of 72 million tones. Inthe following year again, nearly twelve million tones had to beimported. On the average well over seven percent of the totalavailability of food grains during the 1960s had to be imported.

Indian agriculture has progressed a long way from an era offrequent droughts and vulnerability to food shortages to becoming asignificant exporter of agricultural commodities. This has been

possible due to persistent efforts at harnessing the potential of landand water resources for agricultural purposes. Indian agriculture,which grew at the rate of about 1 percent per annum during the fiftyyears before independence, has grown at the rate of about 3 percentper annum in the post independence era.

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Indian Agro Products

Agricultural sector is the mainstay of the rural Indian economy around,which the socio-economic privileges and deprivations revolve, and anychange in its structure is expected to have a corresponding impact on

the existing pattern of social equality. The growth of Indias agriculturesector during the 50 years of independence remains impressive at 2.7% per annum. About two-third of this production growth is aided bygains in crop productivity. The need based strategies adopted sinceindependence and intensified after mid sixties primarily focused onfeeding the growing population and making the country self reliant infood production.

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Indian agriculture has attained an impressive growth in the productionof food grains that has increased around four times during the plannedarea of development from 51 million tons in 1950-51 to 199.1 milliontones in 1997-98. The growth has been really striking since sixtiesafter the production and wide spread usage of high yielding varieties of

seed, fertilization, pesticides, especially in assured irrigated areas.

HistoryOver the 10,000 years since agriculture began to be developed,peoples across the world have discovered the food value of wild plantsand animals and domesticated and bred them. Primary importance ofthese are cereals such as rice, wheat, barley, corn, and rye; sugarcaneand sugar beets; meat animals such as sheep, cattle, goats, and pigsor swine; poultry such as chickens, ducks, and turkeys; and productslike milk, cheese, eggs, nuts, and oils. Fruits, vegetables, and olivesare also an important category of agriculture products; feed grains for

animals include field corn, soybeans, and sorghum.

Modern agriculture in India primarily depends on engineering andtechnology and on the physical and biological sciences. Irrigation,drainage, conservation and sanitation, each of these stages areessential in successful farming, and require specialized knowledge andexpert skills of agricultural engineers.

Mechanization, the spectacular characteristic of late 19th and 20th-century agriculture, has eased much of the backbreaking toil of thefarmers. More importantly, mechanization has considerably increased

the farm efficiency and productivity.

Overview of Indian Agriculture Market HistoryIn several agricultural sectors, India is the worlds leading or one of thelargest producers. For example, the country is second largest milkproducing country in the world. The agricultural sector in the country isknown for its high degree of product diversity. The complementarynature of a number of important Indian agricultural products, incomparison to those produced in west and other countries provideIndia considerable export opportunities to these markets. At present,the Indian agriculture industry is on the brink of a revolution, which will

modernize the entire food chain, as the total food production in thecountry is likely to double in the next ten years.

According to recent studies, the total turnover of Indian food market isapproximately Rs.250000 corers (US $ 69.4 billion), out of which, theshare of value-added food products is around Rs.80000 corers (US $22.2 billion). The Government of India has also sanctioned proposalsfor joint ventures, foreign collaborations, industrial licenses and 100%

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export oriented units conceiving of an investment of Rs.19100 corers(US $ 4.80 billion) out of which foreign investment is over Rs. 9100corers (US $ 18.2 Billion).

The Indian agricultural food industry also assumes significance owing

to country's sizable agrarian economy that accounts for over 35% ofGDP and employs around 65 % of the population. Both in terms ofnumber of joint- ventures / foreign collaborations and foreigninvestment, the consumer food segment has the top priority. The othersalient features of the Indian agro industry, which have the capacity tolure foreigners with assuring benefits are the aqua culture, deep seafishing, milk and milk products, meat and poultry segments.

Exports

Agricultural exports were 44 % of total exports in FY 1960; theydecreased to 32 % in FY 1970, to 31 % in FY 1980, to 18.5 % in FY1988, and to 15.3 % in FY 1993. This drop in share of agriculture intotal exports was somewhat misleading because agricultural products,such as jute and cotton, which were exported in the raw form in the1950s, have been exported as cotton yarn, fabrics, ready-madegarments, coir yarn, and jute manufactures since the 1960s.The composition of agricultural and allied products for export changedprimarily due to the continuing increase of demand in the domesticmarket. This demand cut into the excess available for export in spite ofa continuing desire, on the part of government, to shore up the

invariant foreign-exchange shortage. In FY 1960, tea was the majorexport by value. Oil cakes, cashew kernels, tobacco, raw cotton andspices were about equal in value but were only one-eighth of the valueof tea exports. By FY 1980, tea was still a major export commodity;however rice, coffee, fish, and fish products came close, followed by oilcakes, cashew kernels, and cotton. In 1992-93 fish and fish productsbecame the main agricultural export, followed by oil meals, thencereals, and then tea. The share of fish products rose steadily from lessthan 2 % of all agricultural exports in FY 1960, to 10 % in FY 1980, toaround 15 % for the 3-year period ending in FY 1990, and to 23 % in FY1992. The contribution of tea in agricultural exports fell from 40 % in

FY 1960 to around % percent in the FY 1988-FY 1990 period, and toonly 13 % by FY 1992.Excellent export prospects, competitive pricing of agricultural productsand standards, which are internationally comparable have createdenormous trade opportunities in the Indian agro industry.

Exports of Agricultural products (2004-05)

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Major Export Markets

Major destinations for export of Indian agricultural products (2006-07), include -

Product Major Markets

FloricultureUSA, Japan, UK, Netherlands &Germany

Fruits &Vegetable Seeds

Pakistan, Bangladesh, USA,Japan & Netherlands

Fresh OnionsBangladesh, Malaysia, SriLanka, UAE, Pakistan & Nepal

Other FreshVegetables

UAE, Bangladesh, Pakistan,Nepal & Sri Lanka

WalnutsSpain, Egypt, Germany, UK &Netherlands

Fresh MangoesUAE, Bangladesh, UK, SaudiArabia & Nepal

Fresh GrapesNetherlands, UK, UAE,Bangladesh, Belgium

Other Fresh Bangladesh, UAE, Netherlands,

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Fruits Nepal, Saudi Arabia

Dried &PreservedVegetables

Russia, France, USA, Germany& Spain

Mango Pulp

Saudi Arabia, Netherlands,

UAE, Yamen, Arab Republic &Kuwait

Pickles &Chutneys

Russia, USA, Belgium,Netherlands & France

Other ProcessedFruits

USA, Netherlands, UK, UAE &Saudi Arabia

Buffalo MeatMalaysia, Philippines, SaudiArabia, Jordan & Angola

Sheep / GoatMeat

Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar,Oman & Kuwait

Poultry ProductsUAE, Kuwait, Oman, Germany& Japan

Dairy ProductsBangladesh, Algeria, UAE,Yamen, Arab Republic & Egypt

Animal CasingsGermany, Portugal, France,Spain & Italy

Processed MeatSeychelles, UAE, Hong Kong,Germany & USA

GroundnutsIndonesia, Malaysia,Philippines, UK & Singapore

Guar GumUSA, China, Germany, Italy &

NetherlandsJaggery &Confectionery

Portugal, USA, Bangladesh,Pakistan & Nepal

Cocoa ProductsNepal, Netherlands, Malaysia,Yamen Arab Republic & UAE

CerealPreparations

USA, UK, Nepal, Sri Lanka &UAE

AlcoholicBeverages

Jamaica, Thailand, UAE,Angola & Bhutan

MiscellaneousPreparations

UAE, Iran, USA, UK &Indonesia

Milled Products USA, UK, Indonesia, Maldives& UAE

Basmati RiceSaudi Arabia, Kuwait, UK, UAE& Yamen Arab Rep.

Non BasmatiRice

Nigeria, Bangladesh, SouthAfrica, UAE & Ivory Coast

Wheat Bangladesh, Philippines, UAE,

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Sudan & Myanmar

Other CerealsBangladesh, Sri Lanka, Sudan,Benin, Thailand

Natural HoneyUSA, Germany, Saudi Arabia,UK & UAE

PulsesBangladesh, Sri Lanka,Pakistan, UAE & Nepal

Product-wise Export Data (2002-03 to 2006-07)

FutureForecastsAccording to experts, India has to play a bigger role in the globalmarkets in agriculture products in the future. The country is expectedto strengthen its position among the worlds leading exporters of rice.Presently it is the 2nd largest rice producer after China and the 3rdlargest net-exporter after Thailand and Vietnam.

However, recent reports state that agriculture plays an important,though declining role in Indian economy. Its contribution in overall GDPfell from 30 % in the early nineties, to below 17.5 % in 2006. Thecountry is a world leader in specialist products, such as buffalo milk,spices and bananas, mangoes, chickpeas etc., which are considered asimportant in the Indian diet and are also exported. India is the 5thlargest cultivator of biotech crops across the world, ahead of China. Inthe year 2006, around 3.8 million hectares of land were cultivated withgenetically modified crops, by about 2.3 million farmers. The primaryGM crop is Bt Cotton that was introduced in 2002. The future growth in

agriculture sector must come from -

Advanced technologies that are not only "cost effective" but also"in conformity" with natural climatic regime of the country

Technologies applicable to rain-fed areas particularly Continued genetic improvements for improved seeds and yields Improvements in data for superior research, results, and

sustainable planning Bridging the gap between knowledge and practice; and Judicious land use resource surveys, effective management

practices and sustainable use of natural resources.

Import and Export

Since Independence, India has made a lot of progress in agriculture in terms of growth in

output, yields and area under crops. It has gone through a Green Revolution (food

grains), a White Revolution (milk), a Yellow Revolution (oilseeds) and a BlueRevolution (aquaculture). Today, India is one of the largest producers of milk, fruits,

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cashew nuts, coconuts and tea in the world. It is also well known for the production of

wheat, vegetables, sugar, fish, tobacco and rice.

Certain types of agriculture such as horticulture, organic farming, floriculture, geneticengineering, packaging and food processing have the potential to see a surge in revenues

through exports. Over the past few years, the government has stressed on thedevelopment of horticulture and floriculture by creating vital infrastructure for cold

storage, refrigerated transportation, packaging, processing and quality control. If Indiawishes to optimize the production and export potential of these commodities, then it is

essential to improve these facilities, marketing and export networks much further.

In recent years, the Central Government has offered different fiscal incentives for

bettering storage facilities in rural areas. It also provides financial assistance to the StateGovernments for acquiring and distributing food grains at subsidized rates, especially to

families with annual income below the poverty line. Today, the improved availability of

bank credit through priority lending, favorable terms of trade and liberalized domestic

and external trade for agricultural commodities have also encouraged private players toinvest in agriculture.

The major thrust of the policies and programmers of the Government of India relating to

livestock and fisheries is in the areas of rapid genetic up gradation of mulch animals,improvement in the delivery mechanism of breeding inputs, control of animal diseases,

creation of disease free zones, increased availability of nutritious feed, development of

dairy activities and backyard poultry, development of processing and marketing facilitiesand enhancement of production and profitability of livestock.

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Total agriculture vis-a-vis total national Import/Export (Value: million Rs)

Year Import Export

Agriculture Total

(National)

%

Agriculture

to total(National)

Agriculture Total

(National)

%

Agriculture

to total(National)

Value Value Value Value

1990-91 12058.60 431708.20 2.79 60127.60 325272.80 18.49

1991-92 14782.70 478508.40 3.09 78380.40 440418.10 17.80

1992-93 28762.50 633745.20 4.54 90403.00 536882.60 16.84

1993-94 23273.30 731010.10 3.18 125865.50 697488.50 18.05

1994-95 59372.10 899707.00 6.60 132227.60 826734.00 15.99

1995-96 58901.00 1226781.40 4.80 203977.40 1063533.50 19.18

1996-97 66126.00 1389198.80 4.76 241612.90 1188173.20 20.33

1997-98 87841.90 1541762.90 5.70 248324.50 1301006.40 19.09

1998-99 145664.80 1783316.90 8.17 255106.40 1397517.70 18.25

1999-00 160667.30 2155285.30 7.45 253136.60 1590952.00 15.91

2000-01 120862.30 2283066.40 5.29 286573.70 2013564.50 14.23

2001-02 162566.10 2451997.20 6.63 297286.10 2090179.70 14.22

2002-03 176088.30 2972058.70 5.92 346539.40 2551372.80 13.58

2003-04 219726.80 3591076.60 6.12 372665.20 2933667.50 12.70

2004-05 220574.90 4810641.10 4.59 398633.10 3560688.88 11.20

Source : Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, 2005, Directorate of Economics andStatistics, Ministry of Agriculture, Govt. of India.

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Export Procedure

A successful exporter should thoroughly research the markets. The fewer intermediaries a

person have the better as every intermediary needs a percentage for his share in hisbusiness. This leads to fewer profits. The first thing you need to do is set up a business

organization depending on your export needs. If you decide to incorporate a privatelimited company, then you have to register the same with the Registrar of Companies.

There are two types of exporters - merchant exporters who buy goods from the market or

from manufacturers and sell them to foreign buyers and a manufacturer exporter whomanufactures the goods he exports.

The second thing you need to do is to open a current account in the name of the

organization in whose name you intend to export, at a bank that is authorized to deal in

foreign exchange. Carefully select the products you wish to export and study current

export trends. Also, find out about the import regulations of the commodity in theimporting countries. Send export letters to targeted companies with information about

your company, product, pricing and other services offered. Negotiate with buyers for a

good deal. Once an export order is received it must be processed and a contract that listsitem specifications, payment conditions, marketing requirements, arbitration, shipping

and insurance must be drawn out.

Exporters face risks such as credit risk, currency risk, carriage risk and country risk.These can be countered through steps like insisting upon an irrevocable letter of credit

from the overseas buyer and taking out a marine insurance policy. All exporters have to

register with a regional licensing authority that provides them with an Import Export

Code (IEC) number. To get benefits and concessions under the export-import policy,exporters should register with an appropriate export promotion agency by obtaining a

registration-cum-membership certificate. Goods that are exported are eligible for

exemption from both Sales Tax and Central Sales Tax. For this purpose, you should getyourself registered with the Sales Tax Authority of your State.

Agricultural products have to go through quality control and pre-shipment inspections

before export. Under the about 1,000 commodities under the major groups of food and

agriculture, fishery, minerals, organic and inorganic chemicals, rubber products, juteproducts and coir are subject to compulsory pre-shipment inspection. However, products

that has an ISI Certification Mark orAgmark do not need to be inspected by any

agency. All goods should be labeled, packaged, packed and marked before export

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Import Procedure

Imports to India are governed by the Foreign Trade (Development and Regulation) Act

1992). Under this Act, imports of all goods are free except for the items regulated by thepolicy or any other law in force. The present, foreign trade arrangements for different

commodities are stated in the EXIM Policy of 2004-2009. This policy is announced onceevery five years with annual supplements coming out every year. It is also known as the

Foreign Trade Policy or Export Import Policy.

Items on the 'Prohibited' list like tallow, fat or oils of any animal origin, animal rennet

and wild animals including their parts and products and ivory cannot be imported. Forimport of items that appear in the 'Restricted' list you need secure an import license.

Import of items that are enumerated in the canalized list of items are permitted to be

imported through canalizing Agencies. All other products can be freely imported.

Registration with a regional licensing authority is a precondition for the import of goods.Customs officials will not permit clearance of goods unless the importer gets an Import

Export Code (IEC) number from the regional licensing authority.

Import Procedure for Livestock Products

Livestock products include meat and meat products of different types that comprise fresh,chilled and frozen meat as well as tissue or organs of poultry, pig, sheep and goat. It also

consists of egg and egg powder; milk and milk goods; pet foods of animal origin and

embryos, ova or semen of cows, sheep and goats. No livestock product may be imported

into India without a valid sanitary import permit. All livestock products with validsanitary import permits may be brought into India only through seaports or airports where

Animal Quarantine and Certification Services Stations are situated. These stations are

located in the cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai. When livestock productsarrive at the checkpoint, they will be checked by the Officer-in-charge of the Animal

Quarantine and Certification Services Station or any other veterinary officer duly

approved by the Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying.

Import Procedure for the Fisheries Sector

License under EXIM policy is not required for the import of 125 species/groups of fish,

crustaceans, mollusks and other aquatic invertebrates covered under FREE policy underthe EXIM policy. Import of five groups of live fish is permitted under Restricted Policy.Import of Whale Shark (Rhincodon types) and parts and products of the species is

restricted.

for import have also been steadily brought down. Under a bilateral agreement with Sri

Lanka, duty free import of spices is permitted. This is useful for value addition and re-exportation.

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Changing Land-Use and Future of Agriculture

Although Indias population growth rate has slowed from 2.1

percent in 1980s to 1.8 percent in the 1990s and is expected to slowfurther in the coming decades, yet the population is projected to reach1.33 billion by 2020 from the current one billion. The urban share oftotal population is projected to increase from 26 percent to 35 percentof the total population. Although incidence of poverty is falling, it isestimated that in 93-94 (unto which data is available) 320 millionpeople constituting 36 percent of the population were below theofficially defined poverty line.

The nature of the poverty line has been shifting. About 30 yearsago 48.4 percent of those living in rural areas were poor and 20

percent of those living in the urban areas were classed as poor.Recent studies show that the number of poor in urban areas has beenincreasing at relatively higher rate compared to the rural areas. Atpresent those below the poverty line in rural sector constitute 37percent of the population while in the urban sector the percentage is32 percent. In the context of poverty alleviation, therefore, emphasiswill be required to be placed both on production of food by the poor aswell as on the availability of food for the urban poor. It needs to berecognized that a large proportion of the rural poor are located inregions of low potential for food production e.g. arid and semi-aridareas, hilly regions, and degraded land and forest areas. Widespread

hunger and malnutrition are the direct manifestation of poverty andwill call for increasing efforts to produce more food at affordable price.

Increasing population and economic growth are changingpatterns of land use making potentially unsustainable demands on thecountrys natural resources.

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Agriculture in the Changing Global Scenario

Steady globalization of trade has profound implications for futureagricultural development. The diversity of Indias agro-ecologicalsetting, high bio-diversity and relatively low cost of labor provide

potential for agricultural competitiveness in a globalize economy. It isexpected that with increasing globalization of markets over the yearsthere will be demands for agricultural intensification. This will also befavored because of greater backward and forward linkages betweenagriculture and food industry. Therefore, increase in production andproductivity is bound to be strategically important to economy.Intensification will not only favor alleviation of rural poverty but willalso improve resource conservation particularly in the small farmingsector where farmers can be encouraged to take up organizedproduction of high value crops such as fruits, specialty vegetables,flowers medicinal and aromatic herbs etc. Stronger demands for crops

of the small farmers will not only improve incomes and welfare but willalso make investments in technology and resource conservation moreattractive.

The General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT) andliberalization of global trade is bound to have impact on future land useand production pattern. Understanding the local, national andinternational environment under which agricultural production is takingshape will be crucial in developing our own strategies.

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Extension Strategies

Since early fifties a number of public by funded agriculturaldevelopment programmers have been sponsored. These haveincluded programmers like the National Extension Service (NES) Blocksin 1953, the Intensive Agricultural District Programmed (IADP) in 1961-62, the Intensive Agricultural Area Programmed (IAAP) 1964-65, theHigh Yielding Variety (HYV) programmed 1966-67 and the Small andMarginal Farmers Development Programmers (SMFDP) in 1969-70.Though these programmers had a perceptible impact the efforts didnot get replicated over different areas and categories of farmers. Inmid seventies based on pilot level project in Rajasthan Canal andChamber command area a Training and Visit (T&V) system ofextension was promoted in different states. Extension efforts of theIndian Council of Agricultural Research through its research Institutesand the State Agricultural University were largely limited todemonstration of new technologies through such programmers asNational Demonstration Project, Operational Research Project, the Labto Land Programmed and the Kristi Vegan Kendras. However, thereappears much to be desired in the way that extension programmersare conceived and implemented.

At present extension programmers are implemented in largely atop-down fashion leaving little scope for localized planning and action.Farmers are almost passive receivers and their involvement in theprocess of technology generation and adoption is almost absent.Extension services, at present, are almost exclusively in the publicsector domain and there is no effort or institutional support for otheroperators e.g. the NGOs, the corporate bodies etc.

Extension programmers sponsored by the government operatelargely in isolation and there appears a strong need to view theextension programmers as an integral part of the research anddevelopment process.

The challenges facing agricultural development call forfundamental changes in our approach to technology transfer/extensionprogrammers. Changes are necessary in the context of changingeconomic environment following policy adjustments in relation toprivatization, deregulation and globalization calling for greaterefficiency and effectiveness of the extension system. More importantlythere is need for

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Greater emphasis on providing producers withknowledge and understanding needed to overcome theproblems or to exploit opportunities of their own specificproduction systems. Correspondingly there will be a need tode-emphasize package of practices or the blanket

recommendations, top down approach followed thus far. Shift in the focus of public extension systems frompromoting inputs use to one on sustainable management ofresources and improvements in the production system as awhole. Closer interaction between farmers, extensionscientists and production system researchers in diagnosingproblems and identifying location specific recommendationsemphasizing participation and education rather than beingprescriptive. Widening the range of extension delivering agencies.

While the publicly operated extension systems will continue tobe important, there will appear a greater role for NGOs,farmers associations and corporate sectors in particularsituations. Role of commercial suppliers of seeds,agrochemicals, machinery, vaccines and medicines inproviding advisories, as is already being done in a limitedway, will need to be encouraged and factored into publicsystems own priorities. Wider and more creative use of mass media in tunewith current developments in information technology to getinformation across to the farming community whose ability to

overcome constrains at farm level will increasingly depend onaccess to reliable and up-to-date information.

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Technological Needs and Future Agriculture

It is apparent that the tasks of meeting the consumption needsof the projected population are going to be more difficult given thehigher productivity base than in 1960s. There is also a growingrealization that previous strategies of generating and promotingtechnologies have contributed to serious and widespread problems ofenvironmental and natural resource degradation. This implies that in

future the technologies that are developed and promoted must resultnot only in increased productivity level but also ensure that the qualityof natural resource base is preserved and enhanced. In short, theylead to sustainable improvements in agricultural production.

Productivity gains during the Green Revolution era were largelyconfined to relatively well endowed areas. Given the wide range ofagro ecological setting and producers, Indian agriculture is faced with agreat diversity of needs, opportunities and prospects. Future growthneeds to be more rapid, more widely distributed and better targeted.Responding to these challenges will call for more efficient and

sustainable use of increasingly scarce land water and germlessresources.

Technical solutions required to solve problems will beincreasingly location-specific and matched to the huge agroecological/climatic diversity. Detailed indigenous knowledge andgreater skills in blending modern and traditional technologies toenhance productive efficiency will be more than ever before, key to thefarming success and sect oral growth. Most technological solutions willhave to be generated and adapted locally to make them compatiblewith socio-economic conditions of farming community.

New technologies are needed to push the yield frontiers further,utilize inputs more efficiently and diversify to more sustainable andhigher value cropping patterns. These are all knowledge intensivetechnologies that require both a strong research and extension systemand skilled farmers but also a reinvigorated interface where theemphasis is on mutual exchange of information bringing advantages to

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all. At the same time potential of less favored areas must be betterexploited to meet the targets of growth and poverty alleviation.

These challenges have profound implications for products ofagricultural research. The way they are transferred to the farmers and

indeed the way research is organized and conducted. One thing is,however, clear the new generation of technologies will have to bemuch more site specific, based on high quality science and aheightened opportunity for end user participation in the identificationof targets. These must be not only aimed at increasing farmerstechnical knowledge and understanding of science based agriculturebut also taking advantage of opportunities for full integration withindigenous knowledge. It will also need to take on the challenges ofincorporating the socio-economic context and role of markets.

With the passage of time and accelerated by macro-economic

reforms undertaken in recent years, the Institutional arrangements aswell as the mode of functions of bodies responsible for providingtechnical underpinning to agricultural growth are proving increasinglyinadequate. Changes are needed urgently to respond to new demandsfor agricultural technologies from several directions. Increasingpressure to maintain and enhance the integrity of degrading naturalresources, changes in demands and opportunities arising fromeconomic liberalization, unprecedented opportunities arising fromadvances in biotechnology, information revolution and mostimportantly the need and urgency to reach the poor anddisadvantaged who have been by passed by the green revolution

technologies.

Another important implication of increasing globalization relatesto the need for greater attention to the quality of produce and productsboth for the domestic and the foreign markets. This would imply thatproduction must be tuned to actual rapidly changing product demand.Such adaptation to global markets would require state of the artresearch, which can be achieved only by setting global standards ofresearch, focus on well defined priorities and mechanisms whichpermit close interaction of farmers with researchers, the private sectorand markets.

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Land Use

In FY 1987, field crops were planted on about 45 percent of the totalland mass of India. Of this cultivated land, almost 37 million hectareswere double-cropped, making the gross sown area equivalent toalmost 173 million hectares. About 15 million hectares werepermanent pastureland or were planted in various tree crops andgroves. Approximately 108 million hectares were developed fornonagricultural uses, forested, or unsuited for agriculture because oftopography. About 29.6 million hectares of the remaining land wereclassified as cultivable but fallow, and 15.6 million hectares wereclassified as cultivable wasteland. These 45 million hectares constitute

all the land left for expanding the sown area; for various reasons,however, much of it is unsuited for immediate cropping. Expansion incrop production, therefore, has to come almost entirely fromincreasing yields on lands already in some kind of agricultural use.

Topography, soils, rainfall, and the availability of water for irrigationhave been major determinants of the crop and livestock patternscharacteristic of the three major geographic regions of India--theHimalayas, the Indo-Gangetic Plain, and the Peninsula--and their agro-ecological sub regions. Government policy as regards irrigation, theintroduction of new crops, research and education, and incentives has

had some impact on changing the traditional crop and livestockpatterns in these sub regions. The monsoons, however, play a criticalrole in determining whether the harvest will be bountiful, average, orpoor in any given year. One of the objectives of government policy inthe early 1990s was to find methods of reducing this dependence onthe monsoons.

Himalayas

The Himalayan region, with some 520,000 square kilometers of land,ranks well behind the other two regions in agricultural importance.Despite generally adequate rainfall, the rugged topography allows lessthan 10 percent of the land to be used for agriculture. The sandy,loamy soils on the hillsides and the alluvial clays in the region'spremier agricultural sub region, the Vale of Kashmir--located in thenorthwestern part of the state of Jammu and Kashmir--provide fertileland for agricultural use. The main crops are rice, corn, wheat, barley,millet, and potatoes. Most of India's temperate-zone fruits (apples,

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apricots, cherries, and peaches) and walnuts are grown in the vale.Sericulture and sheepherding also are being undertaken. In the easternHimalayan sub region, the soils are moderately rich in organic matterand are acidic. Although much of the farming is done on terracedhillsides, there is a significant amount of shifting cultivation, which has

resulted in deforestation and soil erosion. Rice, corn, millet, potatoes,and oilseeds were the main crops in the early 1990s. The region also iswell known for the tea plantations of the mountainous Darjiling(Darjeeling) area in the northern tip of West Bengal.

Indo-Gangetic Plain

The vast Indo-Gangetic Plain, extending from Punjab to Assam, is themost intensively farmed zone of the country and one of the mostintensively farmed in the world. Rainfall, most of which comes with thesouthwest monsoon, is generally adequate for summer-grown crops,

but in some years vast areas are seared by drought. Fortunately, muchof the land has access, or potential access, to irrigation waters fromwells and rivers, ensuring crops even in years of drought and makingpossible a winter crop as well as a summer harvest. Wheat is the maincrop in the west, rice in the east. Pulses, sorghum, oilseeds, andsugarcane are among other important crops. Mango orchards arecommon. Other fruits of the sub region include guavas, jackfruit,plums, lemons, oranges, and pomegranates.

In the Great Indian Desert, rainfall is scanty and erratic. About 20percent of the total area is under cultivation, mostly in Haryana and

Gujarat states, and comparatively little in Rajasthan. The Indira GandhiCanal--begun in 1958 as the Rajasthan Canal--was designed to bringwater from the north. Progress was slow, and only the first stage wasclose to completion by the end of the Seventh Five-Year Plan (FY 1985-89). By then, the canal had substantially increased the area undercultivation in Rajasthan, and a new completion date of 1999 isanticipated, the cultivable area is expected to expand further with thedevelopment of the canal's second stage during the 1990s. Theleading crops of the sub region are millet, sorghum, wheat, andpeanuts. Vast expanses of sparse vegetation provide sustenance forsheep and goats. In the late 1980s, dairy farming became important in

locations that had sufficient pastureland.

Peninsular India

The east and west coasts, the coastal plains, and the deltaic tracts thatextend inland for some 100 to 200 kilometers in Peninsular Indiabenefit from both the June-to-September southwest monsoon and theOctober-to-November northeast monsoon. Farther inland, as the

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topography and climate change, so does the pattern of agriculture. Theproportion of land under cultivation ranges from about 50 percentalong the coastal plain and in the western part of Andhra Pradesh toabout 25 percent in eastern Madhya Pradesh. Except in areas ofcertain developed river valleys, double-cropping is rare. Rice is the

predominant crop in high-rainfall areas and sorghum in low-rainfallareas. Other crops of significance along the east coast and in theCentral Highlands in the early 1990s were pigeon peas, mustard,peanuts, millet, linseed, castor beans, cotton, and tobacco.

On the Deccan Plateau, deep, alluvial black soils that retain moisturefor a long time are the basis for much of the region's output of farmproducts. However, the region also has many farming areas that arecovered by thin, light-textured soils that suffer quickly from drought.Whether a crop is made or lost is, therefore, often dependent on theavailability of supplementary water from ponds and streams. About 60

percent of the land in the state of Maharashtra was under cultivation inthe early 1990s, less in Madhya Pradesh. About 75 percent of thecropland of the Deccan during this period was planted in food crops,such as millet, sorghum, rice, wheat, and peanuts; most of theremaining cropland was planted in fodder crops.

In the far south of the Peninsula, the area under cultivation varies fromabout 10 percent in the Western Ghats, to 25 percent in the westerncoastal tract, to 55 percent on the Karnataka Plateau. Here is theIndia--the land of spices--that Vasco da Gama and other Europeannavigators came searching for in the fifteenth century. On the

Karnataka Plateau, sorghum, millet, pulses, cotton, and oilseeds arethe main crops on the 90 percent of the cultivated land that is dry-farmed; rice, sugarcane, and vegetables predominate on the 10percent that was irrigated in the late 1980s. Coconuts, areca, coffee,pepper, rubber, cashew nuts, tapioca, and cardamom are widely grownon plantations in the Nilgiri Hills and on the western slopes of theWestern Ghats.

Land Tenure

Matters concerning the ownership, acquisition, distribution, and

taxation of land are, by provision of the constitution, under thejurisdiction of the states. Because of the diverse attitudes andapproaches that would result from such freedom if there were nogeneral guidelines, the central government has at times laid downdirectives dealing with the main problems affecting the ownership anduse of land. But it remains for the state governments to implement thecentral government guidelines. Such implementation has varied widelyamong the states.

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Landholding Categories

India is a land of small farms, of peasants cultivating their ancestrallands mainly by family labor and, despite the spread of tractors in the1980s, by pairs of bullocks. About 50 percent of all operational

holdings in 1980 were less than one hectare in size. About 19 percentfell in the one-to-two hectare range, 16 percent in the two-to-fourhectare range, and 11 percent in the four-to-ten hectare range. Only 4percent of the working farms encompassed ten or more hectares.

Although farms are typically small throughout the country, the averagesize holding by state ranges from about 0.5 hectare in Kerala and 0.75hectare in Tamil Nadu to three hectares in Maharashtra and fivehectares in Rajasthan. Factors influencing this range include soils,topography, rainfall, rural population density, and thoroughness of landredistribution programs.

Many factors--historical, political, economic, and demographic--have affected thedevelopment of the prevailing land-tenure status. The operators of most agricultural

holdings possess vested rights in the land they till, whether as full owners or as protectedtenants. By the early 1990s, there were tenancy laws in all the statesand union territories except Nagaland, Meghalaya, and Mizoram. Thelaws provide for states to confer ownership on tenants, who can buythe land they farm in return for fair payment; states also overseeprovision of security of tenure and the establishing of fair rents. Theimplementation of these laws has varied among the states. WestBengal, Karnataka, and Kerala, for example, have achieved more

success than other states. The land tenure situation is complicated,and it has varied widely from state to state. There is, however, muchless variation in the mid-1990s than in the postindependence period.

Independent India inherited a structure of landholding that wascharacterized by heavy concentration of cultivable areas in the handsof relatively large absentee landowners (zamindars--see Glossary), theexcessive fragmentation of small landholdings, an already growingclass of landless agricultural workers, and the lack of any generalizedsystem of documentary evidence of landownership or tenancy. Landwas important as a status symbol; from one generation to the next,

there was a tendency for an original family holding to be progressivelysubdivided, a situation that continued in the early 1990s. Thisphenomenon resulted in many landholdings that were too small toprovide a livelihood for a family. Borrowing money against land wasalmost inevitable and frequently resulted in the loss of land to a localmoneylender or large landowner, further widening the gap betweenlarge and small landholders. Moreover, inasmuch as landowners andmoneylenders tended to belong to higher castes and petty owners and

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tenants to lower castes, land tenure had strong social as well aseconomic impact

By the early 1970s, after extensive legislation, large absenteelandowners had, for all practical purposes, been eliminated; their rights

had been acquired by the state in exchange for compensation in cashand government bonds. More than 20 million former zamindar-systemtenants had acquired occupancy rights to the land they tilled. Whereaspreviously the landlord collected rent from his tenants and passed on aportion of it as land revenue to the government, starting in the early1970s, the state collected the rent directly from cultivators who, ineffect, had become renters from the state. Most former tenantsacquired the right to purchase the land they tilled, and payments tothe state were spread out over ten to twenty years. Large landownerswere divested not only of their cultivated land but also of ownership offorests, lakes, and barren lands. They were also stripped of various

other economic rights, such as collection of taxes on sales ofimmovable property within their jurisdiction and collection of moneyfor grazing privileges on uncultivated lands and use of river water.These rights also were taken over by state governments in return forcompensation. By 1980 more than 6 million hectares of waste, fallow,and other categories of unused land had been vested in stategovernments and, in turn, distributed to landless agricultural workers.

Land Reform

A major concern in rural India is the huge number of landless or near-

landless families, many of whom are wholly dependent on a few weeksof work at the peak planting and harvesting seasons. The number oflandless rural families has grown steadily since independence, both inabsolute terms and as a proportion of the population. In 1981 therewere 195.1 million rural workers: 55.4 million were agriculturallaborers who depended primarily on casual farm work for a livelihood.In the early 1990s, the rural work force had grown to 242 million, ofwhom 73.7 million were classified as agricultural laborers.Approximately 33 percent of the employed rural workers wereclassified as casual wage laborers.

Because of the large number of landless farmers and the frequentneglect of land by absentee landlords in the early years ofindependence, the principle that there should be a ceiling on the sizeof landholdings, depending on the crop planted and the quality of theland, was embodied in the First Five-Year Plan (FY 1951-55). Anagricultural census was conducted to provide guidance in setting suchceilings. During the Second Five-Year Plan (FY 1956-60), most stateslegislated fixed ceilings, but there was little uniformity among the

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states; ceilings ranged from six to 132 hectares. Certain specializedbranches of agriculture, such as horticulture, cattle breeding, and dairyfarming, were usually exempted from ceilings.

All the states instituted programs to force landowners to sell their over-

the-ceiling holdings to the government at fixed prices; the states, inturn, were to redistribute the land to the landless. But adamantresistance, high costs, sloppy record keeping, and poor administrationin general combined to weaken and delay this aspect of land reform.The delays in legislation allowed large landowners to circumvent theintent of the laws by spurious partitioning, sales, gifts to familymembers, and other methods of evading ceilings. Many exemptionswere granted so that there was little surplus land.

To ensure more uniformity in income, to combat evasion of the intentof the laws, and to secure more land for distribution to the landless,

the central government in the 1970s pushed for greatly reducedceilings. For a family of five, the central government guidelines calledfor not more than 10.9 hectares of good, irrigated land suitable fordouble-cropping, not more than 10.9 hectares of land suited for onecrop annually, and not more than 21.9 hectares for orchards.Exemptions were continued for land used as cocoa, coffee, tea, andrubber plantations; land held by official banks and other governmentunits; and land held by agricultural schools and research organizations.At the option of the states, land held by religious, educational, andcharitable trusts also could be exempted. To protect the states fromlegal challenges to their land reform laws, the constitution was

amended in 1974 to include in its Ninth Schedule the state laws thathad been enacted in conformance with national guidelines. Landreform laws enacted after 1974 also were included in the amendment.

By the beginning of the 1990s, all states and union territories, exceptGoa, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura, hadpassed ceiling laws to conform to central government guidelines. InMaharashtra, for example, the revised ceiling law that becameeffective in 1975 set upper limits at perennially irrigated land, 7.2hectares; seasonally irrigated land, 10.8 hectares; paddy land in anassured rainfall area, 14.6 hectares; and other dry land, 21.9 hectares.

By the early 1980s, about 150,000 hectares had been declared surplusunder this act, about 100,000 of which had been distributed to 6,500landless persons. A 1973 land reform amendment in Bihar set a rangeof ceilings on holdings for a family of five, from six to eighteenhectares depending on land quality, and offered an allowance for eachadditional family member, subject to a maximum of one-and-one-halftimes the holding. Within five years, the Bihar government hadacquired 94,000 hectares of surplus land and had distributed 53,000

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hectares to 138,000 landless families. Success nationwide was limited.Of the 2.9 million hectares of land declared surplus, nearly 1.9 millionhectares had been distributed by the end of the seventh plan, leaving1 million hectares still to be distributed as of early 1993.

By the early 1990s, nearly all the states had enacted legislation aimedat the consolidation of each tiller's landholdings into one contiguousplot. Implementation was patchy and sporadic, however. By the early1980s, the work had been completed only in Punjab, Haryana, andwestern Uttar Pradesh and had begun in Orissa and Bihar. In most ofthe other states, nothing had been accomplished by the early 1990s.The Sixth Five-Year Plan (FY 1980-84) set a goal for the completion ofthe consolidation of holdings within ten years, which was not achieved.

In order to protect tenants from exorbitant rents (often up to 50percent of their produce), the states passed legislation to regulate

rents. The maximum rate was fixed at levels not exceeding 20 to 25percent of the gross produce in all states except Andhra Pradesh,Haryana, and Punjab. The states also adopted various other measuresfor the protection of tenants, including moratoriums on evictions,minimum periods of tenure, and security of tenure subject to evictionon prescribed grounds only.

By the early 1980s, most of the cultivated area had been surveyed andrecords of rights prepared. In most states, revenue assessment--thetax on land--against farmland had been revised upward in keeping witha rise in farm prices. Several states, steps were taken to associate

village assemblies, orpanchayat, with the maintenance of landrecords, the collection of land revenue, and the management of landsbelonging to government; the results of these efforts have frequentlybeen unsatisfactory.

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Future of Food grain production in India

In the past, India has made great progress in providing foodsecurity for its people. However the growth rate of agriculture hasdecreased from 3.2 during 1985-90 (seventh plan) to 2.1 during 1997-2002 (Ninth plan). There has also been a decline in the growth rate offood grain production from 3.22 (1960) to 1.23 (1997). Food grainproduction is becoming a matter of concern again.The challengefacing the country is in achieving a higher production of foodproduction over the next 23 decades (Daniel 2000). According to astudy by Bhalla et.al (1999), baseline projection for total cerealdemand in 2020 is 246 million tons for direct human consumption. Therelevant question that arises is whether India would be able to increasethe food grain production in the coming years with the net-croppedarea remaining same? Much of the additional food demand in the

future will have to be met through productivity enhancement. Whatfactors have contributed most to the productivity growth in the past?Reaching towards the goal of sustainable agriculture with high yieldrequires a crucial role of irrigation and other factors. In the paper, weexplore the marginal contribution of factors like irrigation and fertilizeron yield of food grain using a regression model. We also test thehypothesis that marginal effect of fertilizer on yield depends much onthe irrigated conditions.

Over the past 15 years, increase in irrigated area has mainlytaken place from groundwater source. Yields in areas irrigated bygroundwater are often substantially higher than the yield from surface

water sources. Research indicates that yields in groundwater irrigatedareas are higher by one third to one half than in areas irrigated fromsurface sources, and as much as 70-80% of Indias agricultural outputmay be groundwater dependent (Marcus 1996). Higher yields fromgroundwater-irrigated areas are in large part due to increase in thereliability of water supply. In the paper, we explore how irrigated areadriven by groundwater irrigation expansion will contribute in increasingthe irrigation intensity.

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Much of the contribution in yield change in the last two decadesis caused by high fertilizer usage (Daniel 2000; Ahluwalia 1996). Highuse of fertilizer in agricultural production is also contributed byexpansion of irrigation as the latter reduces the risk of investment infertilizer. Two decades back, farmers applied only 30 kg of mineral

fertilizers (nitrogenous, phosphatic and potassic fertilizers) to theirland. Today, they apply 29kg per hectare which is three times asmuch. In the same period, food grain yields have increased every year,from about 1.023 tonnes/ha to 1.67 tonnes/ha. One of the concernsregarding the factors constraining the yield growth is imbalanced useof fertilizer. The pattern of fertilizer use is distorted to great extent.Data suggests extreme overuse of nitrogenous fertilizer, and to largeextent it is due to under market price of nitrogenous fertilizer. Theexcessive use of nitrogenous fertilizer usage is sticking mainly in theirrigated area of the north zone. With declining ground water tableover use of nitrogenous fertilizer may slow down the yield growth in

future.We hypothesize both time series and cross section variation inyield and the factors influencing the latter across the states in India.Using a panel data, we investigate the yield of food grains, and assessthe future impacts of increasing irrigated area and fertilizer usage. Wehave used annual time series and cross section data of 15 major statesin India, which constitutes more than 95 % of the agrarian economy ofIndia, for the period 1990-2001. Based on the regression results, weanalyze the contribution of the different factors in the relative changesin yield growth. To get into further insights we also assess thecontribution of the factors in relative change in yield in different zones

of India, for instance North, South, East and West Zones.1

It is essential to project Indias future food production, as thecurrent concern is to meet the food demand of the increasingpopulation. The proportion irrigated area, fertilizer usage and grosscropped area are determined using a quadratic time trend of thelast decade; and then based on the regression results and timetrend values of the factors, we project the yield of food grains in2010, 2025 and 2050.

The structure of the paper is as follows. In the first section, wediscuss about the past agricultural scenarios .In the next section, weexplore the yield of food grains and the relative contribution of thefactors in changing its growth. In the fourth section, we make futureprojections of yield and food production. Finally, the last sectionsummarizes the findings and results of the paper.

1

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Changing Grain Orientation

With technologies developments in agriculture and risingdemand of non-food grain, traditional farming is changing into moderncommercial farming. From a very generalized perspective, Indian

agriculture is increasingly getting influenced more and more byeconomic factors (Hazra 2000). This is not surprising becausedevelopment of irrigation driven by groundwater expansion,infrastructure development, development and spread of short durationand drought resistant crop technologies have all contributed tominimizing the role of non-economic factors in crop choice of evensmall farmers (Hazra 2000). In the last decade, we have observed adecrease in grain orientation and diversification in crops. Cropdiversification is intended to give a wider choice in the production of avariety of crops in a given area so as to expand production relatedactivities on various crops and also to lessen risk. Between 1990-91

and 2000-01, around 4 percent of the gross cultivated area (GCA) -representing approximately about 6.7 million hectares (m/ha) - hasshifted from food grain crops to non-food grain crops. Among the foodgrain crops, the area under superior cereals, i.e., rice and wheat, isincreasing; while that of coarse cereals (millets) is on decline.While cereals and pulses have lost area, the major gainers of this areashift are the non-food grain crops especially oilseeds. If we look at thegrain orientation of agriculture defined as a ratio of gross cropped area

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for food grain to total cropped area, we observe a declining trend.Grain orientation of agriculture during the last decade has decreasedfrom 71% to 67%. Most of the change in grain orientation, however, istaking place under rained conditions to reduce the risk factor of cropfailures due to drought or less rain. Although comparative advantage,

yield difference and crop rotation considerations often favourdiversification in irrigated areas.

Fertilizer Usage

With ground water tables declining, there are growing pressureto increase the yield. The key factor behind high yield growth could bethe development of new technology that will produce higher yields perhectare, and fertilizer remains a key player in this most important taskas it has been in the past. However, fertilizer application should beoptimum in quantity to meet the crops nutrient requirement fully so asto achieve the set yield target. Table 2.8 shows the usage of fertilizerper hectare of gross cropped area in year 1990-91.The table illustratessignificant difference in the consumption of fertilizer in the irrigatedand rain fed area. Mainly, the nitrogenous fertilizer usage is almost

double in the irrigated area than in the rainfed area. The pattern offertilizer use is distorted to great extent. On the basis of agronomicefficiency the ratio of N: P: K should be 4:2:1, whereas usage is 8:3:1 inirritated area and 8:4:1 in the rain fed area. The distortion in thepattern of fertilizer usage is caused by under price of nitrogenousfertilizer (Ahluwalia 1996). There is substantial subsidy on bothdomestic production and imports of nitrogenous fertilizer, while theprices of phosphatic and potassic fertilizers are largely market

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determined. The excessive use of nitrogenous fertilizer usage issticking mainly in the irrigated area of the north zone. With decliningground water table over use of nitrogenous fertilizer may slow downthe yield growth.

Consumption of fertilizer per hectareof gross cropped area (kg)

Irrigated Irrigated rain fed Total

N 85.5 43.9 66.6

P 33.1 22 28

K 10.1 5.7 8.1

Total 128.8 71.5102.

8

Table 1.1: Usage of fertilizer per hectare of cropped area during 2001;Source: Fertilizer Association of India Government of IndiaNote: N-nitrogenous fertilizer, P- phosphatic fertilizer and K- potassicfertilizer

Zones

Nutrient

Consumption (' 000tonnes)

2002-03

Kharif Rabi Total

East

N 743.5 810.8 1554.4

P 262.5 347.6 610.12

K 153.1 230.2 383.26

Total 1159 1389 2547.7

North

N 1861 2481 4341.5

P 380.5 919.2 1299.7K 58.04 141.9 199.92

Total 2299 3542 5841.1

South

N 1030 1133 2163

P 452.6 484.5 937.1

K 315.9 338.3 654.22

Total 1799 1955 3754.3

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West

N 1268 1148 2415.3

P 620.1 551.8 1171.9

K 187.6 176.2 363.76

Total 2075 1875 3950.9

Table 1.2: Total consumption of fertilizer in different geographic zones during 2002-03

Note: N-nitrogenous fertilizer, P- phosphatic fertilizer and K- potassic fertilizerSource: Fertilizer Association of India Government of India

Projection

The challenges facing Indian agriculture today are more serious,complex and exceed those that we encountered prior to the GreenRevolution period. India faces the growing challenge to meet the fooddemand of increasing population. In this paper, we project from thesupply side, the potential food production in future.

Based on the estimation results and the projected values of theexplanatory variables, we project the yield of food grains of India in

year 2010, 2025 and 2050. The time dimension for the projections hasalso been adopted by both National Commission on Integrated WaterResource Development Plan (NCIWDP) and the Indian Water resourceSociety (IWRS). A longer time frame with target year, 2050 has beenchosen as many water development projects involve a long gestationperiod, while a shorter time span with 2025 as a target year has beenchosen to allow institutional changes in Indian irrigation scenario. Year2010 represent closer to present scenario as much growth in factors

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influencing irrigation are not expected to take place during the nextfive years.From the regression results, we have determined the marginal effect of thefactors influencing yield of food grains. The growth rates of proportionalirrigated area, usage of fertilizer per hectare of cropped area and grosscropped area are determined using a quadratic time trend from the lastdecade. Then using the regression results explaining the yield, we project thelatter. Such estimation procedure has been taken to achieve realistic andreasonable growth rates of the factors determining irrigation intensity.

Variable constant trend Trend-sqrIrrigationCoverage 0.0193 -0.0001 0.2542Consumptionof Fertilizerper Ha ofcropped area(AP) 3.3013 -0.0198 110.4969Gross croppedarea of foodgrains 187.6321 -7.024 121410.2Table 4.1:Regression Results: Quadratic time trend

Table 4.2 shows the different scenarios that may guide the development ofirrigated water demand in India in future. The first scenario, which may belooked as a business as usual scenario, illustrates the growth of the factorsbased according to the time trend during the period 1990-2000.Such scenariois plausible with no major changes in the government agricultural and

irrigation policy in the next 45 years. In a longer time frame, many may viewthis as unreasonable given India had experienced two major structuraleconomic policy changes in the first fifty years of its independence. Keepingthe possibility of some changes in policy with the potential of altering thefactors responsible for changes in irrigation intensity, we have developedalternative scenarios. The alternative scenarios are developed based on thefaster rate of change the factors, irrigation coverage (GIAfg/GSAfg), fertilizerusage per hectare of cropped area.2

In the last decade groundwater irrigation has played a crucialrole in influencing the net irrigated area and meeting the irrigatedwater demand of India in the past. With good groundwatergovernance, and higher productivity of groundwater, the contribution

of groundwater may increase in future. The role of surface waterirrigation may also increase with the implementation of nationalinterlinking of rivers project. In the fourth scenario analysis, we assumea 50% per year faster growth in irrigated coverage.

The second scenario assumes the condition if the growth offertilizer consumption is 50% faster per year, with all other factors

2

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maintaining the time trend. In the final scenario, we consider the casewhere both the factors may change at a faster rate specified byscenario 2and 3.

Scenario 1 Proportional irrigated area for food grain and

consumption of fertilizer per hectare ischanging according to the time trend

Scenario 2 The rate of increase in the proportionalirrigated area for food grain is 50% more thantime trend.

Scenario 3 The growth rate of fertilizer per hectare ofcropped area is 50% more than time trend.

Scenario 4-allfactors changing

Both factors changing more than time trend.

Table 4.2: Description of scenarios

In the past, Indias groundwater irrigation has played aninfluencing role in increasing the irrigated area. According to the timetrend, the growth rate of proportional irrigated area for food grainsdriven by groundwater irrigation would be 2.82% in 2010,1.64% in2025 and 0.62% in 2050,and at those growth rates the irrigationcoverage would be 48%, 59% and 67% respectively. The growthassumes no major changes in surface water. However, if we assume50% higher growth rate in irrigation coverage for exogenous reasons,

the proportional irrigated area for food grain (GIA-fg/ GSA-fg ) willincrease to 0.88 in 2050.

Our projection suggest in India, consumption of fertilizer usagewill increase at the rate of 2.94% in 2010,1.17% in 2025 and by 0.63%in 2050 following the 1990-2000 time trend. Given such growth rate,the fertilizer usage per hectare is expected to be 195 and 226 kg perhectare in 2025 and 2050 respectively. In the scenario with 50% highergrowth rate the corresponding figures would be 237 in 2010 and 284 in2050.

Year IrrigationCoverage

Consumptionof Fertilizerper Ha ofcropped area(AP)

Gross croppedarea of foodgrains

20102.82 2.94 0.19

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2025 1.64 1.17 -0.262050 0.62 0.63 -1.09Table 4.3: Growth rate according to time trend

Scenarios Irrigation-GIAfg/GSAfg Fertilizer per hectare ofgross cropped area

Yield of food grains

2010 2025 2050 2010 2025 2050 2010 2025 2050

Scenario 1time trend 0.48 0.59 0.67 165.58 195.20 226.57 1.84 2.15 2.41Scenario 2-proportionalirrigated areachanging at a

faster rate 0.59 0.76 0.88 171.09 203.67 238.18 2.12 2.58 2.97Scenario 3-consumptionof fertilizerchanging atfaster rate 0.48 0.59 0.67 193.12 237.56 284.61 1.87 2.21 2.50Scenario 4-allfactorschanging atfaster rate 0.59 0.76 0.88 195.88 241.79 290.41 2.16 2.65 3.09

Table 4.4: Projected values of proportional irrigated area of food grains, consumptionof fertilizer per hectare of cropped area and yield of food grains during 2010, 2025and 2050.

Projected values

Given the projected irrigated area of food grains and fertilizerconsumption, we have estimated the yield of India in 2010, 2025 and2050. In 1999-2000 the average yield of food grain of India was 1.67.Our projection results suggest that under business as usual scenario,

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yield of food grain will increase to 1.84 in 2010 and to 2.41 in 2050. Inscenario 2 with higher contribution of irrigation, the yield will increaseto 2.97 in 2050. Higher change in fertilizer consumption alone,however, would not change the projected yield much. Fasterdevelopment in irrigation will induce higher usage of fertilizer, and in

scenario 4 with both factors changing at a faster rate, the averageyield would be 3.09 in 2050.In the recent past, we observe not much change in the gross

sown area of food grains. In fact, the average gross sown area for foodgrains was 127 million hectares during 1980-1990 and it has reducedto 123 million hectares in 1990 2000.Our projection, based on timetrend, suggests that the gross sown area of India will increase slowlytill 2010 and then it will start declining. Taking those growth rates asdescribed in table 4.5 the gross sown area would be 128 millionhectares in 2010, 125 million hectares in 2025 and in 2050 it would be112 million hectares. With attainable increase in irrigation and fertilizer

according to time trend, the production of food production will bearound 271million tons in 2050 and according to higher growth ratescenario the production of food grains would be 322 and 334 millionton in 2025 and 2050 respectively. This is a supply side projection.India s consumption of food grains can change dramatically aseconomy grows. As projected, if more land is brought under irrigation,then farmers would response more to economic factors like price, andwe could expect a projection figure.

year GSAfg Production

of foodgrainsAccordingto timetrend

Production

of foodgrains ifthe growthofirrigation is50 % moreper year.

2010128.25 235.98 271.89

2025 125.06 268.88 322.652050 112.72 271.65 334.79Table 4.5: Projected values of gross sown area and production of food grains in 2010,2025 and 2050.

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Conclusion

From the above analysis it is evident that supply response offood production is greatly influenced by irrigation and fertilizer usage.Irrigation is a crucial factor for reducing the fluctuation in food

production in last decade. It is however, true that now with over 50%of the area under rained, rainfall is still one of the most importantfactors determining average yield. Due to vagaries in rainfall, weobserve fluctuation in yield. In year 2000 out of 89 million tonnes ofrice production nearly30 million tonnes are produced in the unirrigatedarea. In case of wheat, out of 56 million tonnes only 6 % of the totalproduction comes from rain fed area.

There is also a growing concern about the growth rate of yield. Inthe period 1980-1990, yield of food grain was increasing at 3.2% peryear but in the next decade the growth has slowed down to 1.7%. Theslow growth in yield may be contributed by declining ground water

table, salinity intrusion and over use of fertilizer. This slow growth ofyield is prominent in the north zone where growth in food grain yield isnot significantly higher compare to other geographic zones. This is alsothe region where fertilizer usage is very high and contributes morethan 30% of the relative change in yield.

In the paper, we have projected the future food production ofIndia. Our methodology is based on sensitiveness of the factors, aidedwith quadratic time trend of those factors. Projection according to timetrend only suggests that the food production of India will be 268 milliontonnes in year 2025 and it will not change much after that. It meansfood production will increase by 3.42 metric tonnes per year.According

to a projection study by Kumar et. al, the cereal demand is expected tobe 296 metric tonnes in 2020. Given the time trend, India would bedeficient in food production. However, if the growth of irrigation is 50%more, then India could enjoy self-sufficiency in food production. Theprojection results indicate that there is need of a policy to achieve ahigher irrigation growth to meet the growing food demand and tosustain the self-sufficiency in food production. (Incomplete)

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Appendix:

Table A.1: States and the geographical zones

North Punjab

Haryana

Uttar Pradesh

Himachal Pradesh

East Assam

Bihar

Orissa

West Bengal

South Karnataka

Kerala

Tamil Nadu

Andhra Pradesh

West Madhya PradeshRajasthan

Gujarat

Maharashtra

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Agricultural Technology

The era of modernization is viewed in the entire sectors especially inthe agriculture sector. Gone are the days when farmers meant apoor man laboring hard to meet his needs. In the modern times,

farmers are equipped with agriculture technology that is latest andtrouble free. With the entry and increasing influence of the sciencein the traditional farming, the agriculture industry of the nation iscelebrating green revolution each moment. The new technologieshave helped in utilizing even the small land into loads of profitmaking source. Farmers whether small or big are getting more andmore aware of the fact that technology is very beneficial to themand the future of the agriculture industry.

The technology has resulted into the many innovative equipmentsthat have reduced time and energy invested in to the farming. The

newest tractors are capable of plowing big piece of land at theswiftest speed and less consumption of the fuel. Also, forharvesting there are several new equipments that have reducedman power and burden. Also, agriculture technology hasrevolutionized the irrigating methodology. Now water is easilydistributed to the remotest parts with the tunnels especially in dryand hilly areas. The booming agriculture technology serves with thelatest ploughs that are light in weight and superior in quality level.Apart from cropping machines and tools, technology has madefarmers to use the weather and conditions in intelligent manner.The witty style of farming reduces the losses in the farming and

eliminates dependency over weather for farming. Agriculturetechnology is based on the scientific researches of experts andbotanist who have guided the path to the modernization. Also it isall due to new technologies that are awaking farmers to cultivatenew crops like bio diesel apart from the traditional horticulture andcrops ultimately making farmers rich. The tardiest pesticidesincluding chemical and organic are result of the upgradingagriculture technology. The agriculture technological enhancementshave also compelled the retail sector to join the agriculture sector.In the recent developments, like western countries, in developingnations like India, several MNC and retail tycoons have intruded the

trade. They all have been emphasizing on the most advancetechnologies for agricultural that does well to farmers.

Govt. of all countries has realized the potential of the agriculturesector and that is why several policies are being implanted that isfavorable for agriculture. If the agriculture technology keeps onadvancing at same momentum the day is near when, agriculturewill retain the old glory and triumph of past in no matter of time

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Research & Development

In countries like India, the backbone of the economy is the agriculture.The agro sector is the dominant part that serves more than a half apercent of direct and indirect employment to the masses. However

the traditional agricultural practices have not changed and that iswhy the need of the research and development was realized for thebetterment of this sector. Green revolution few decades ago wasonly possible because of use advance agricultural practices at thetime. Since then, the govt. set up ministries and boards especiallyfor the research and development. Apart from the govt. authorizedresearch and developments there are numerous organizations thatcarry out researches for the up gradation of agriculture.

However its a tough ask to introduce new techniques foragriculture sector as very few of them are capable to meet up the

expectations of farmers and masses as well. One of the prime areof research is to cultivate hybrid crops that grows abundant in asmall piece of the land. The traditional crops are good but not grownot in that much quantity that is profitable for the farmers. Thence,researches main focus is to harvest the original quality of crops inplenty of amount. There have been several successes in these, astoday we have high quality rice and other cops supplied to all overthe globe. Also research is carried about the money making cropslike herbs, bio-fuels and others. The research is about the good andbad of this farming as there is great demand of such crops atinternational marketplace. Also, there are several other researches

and developments are taking place for example the renovating thetraditional plowing tactics. It was seen that weather dependencyvery much has affected the local farmers. The newest researchessay that not only farmers will be less reliant on the

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A Project Repoet on Future of Agri