PAGE # PAGE # 11

A PROGRAM IN

STATISTICAL SURVEY DESIGN AND ANALYSIS

FOR AQUATIC RESOURCES

STARMAP: THE PROGRAM AT STARMAP: THE PROGRAM AT

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITYCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY

SPACE-TIME AQUATIC RESOURCES MODELING AND ANALYSIS PROGRAM

SCOTT URQUHART, DIRECTOR of SCOTT URQUHART, DIRECTOR of STARMAPSTARMAP

PAGE # PAGE # 22

FUNDING SOURCE

ALL OF THE WORK REPORTED HERE TODAYALL OF THE WORK REPORTED HERE TODAY was developed under the STAR Research Assistance was developed under the STAR Research Assistance Agreement CR-829095 awarded by the U.S. Agreement CR-829095 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado State Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado State University, or CR-829096University, or CR-829096 awarded to Oregon State awarded to Oregon State University.  These presentations have not been formally University.  These presentations have not been formally reviewed by EPA.  The views expressed here are solely reviewed by EPA.  The views expressed here are solely those of authors and the respective Programs. EPA does those of authors and the respective Programs. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in these presentations.mentioned in these presentations.

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THIS TALK

STARMAPSTARMAP OBJECTIVES AND VISION PROJECTS COORDINATION

A CROSS-PROJECT THRUSTA CROSS-PROJECT THRUST DEVELOP MODELS & METHODS TO

SUPPORT STATE & TRIBAL USE OF PROBABILITY-STATE & TRIBAL USE OF PROBABILITY-

BASED SITE SELECTIONBASED SITE SELECTION

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STARMAP’S MAJOR OBJECTIVES

TO ADVANCETO ADVANCE THE SCIENCE OF STATISTICS TECHNIQUES OF HIERARCHICAL SURVEY

DESIGN AND ALLIED TECHNIQUES SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL MODELING

TO DEVELOP AND EXTEND THEOP AND EXTEND THEEXPERTISE ON DESIGN ANDEXPERTISE ON DESIGN ANDANALYSIS TO THE STATES ANDANALYSIS TO THE STATES ANDTRIBESTRIBES

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STARMAP’S MAJOR OBJECTIVESCONTINUED

TO EXPAND THE CADRE OF GRADUATES WITH EXPERTISE AND EXPERIENCE IN

SURVEY DESIGN AND ANALYSIS NEEDED TO SUCCESSFULLY MONITOR THE

CONDITION OF

THE NATION’S AQUATIC RESOURCES

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STARMAP’S VISION

PERSPECTIVE: A SEARCHING ANALYSIS OF A REAL,

MODERATELY COMPLEX, DATA SET

ALMOST ALWAYS GENERATESQUESTIONS WHOSE ANSWER

CALLSFOR AN EXTENSION OF EXISTINGSTATISTICAL THEORY ORMETHODOLOGY.

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STARMAP’S VISIONCONTINUED

SUCH RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIESWILL BECOME PROBLEMSATTACKED BY

IN ORDER OF COMPLEXITY MASTERS STUDENTS DOCTORAL STUDENTS POST-DOCTORAL FELLOWS AFAFFILIATED FACULTY SUPERVISORS

PAGE # PAGE # 88

STARMAP’S VISIONCONTINUED - 2

THE IDENTIFICATION OF THOSEQUESTIONS REQUIRES

A STRONG WORKING RELATIONSHIPBETWEEN

THE STATISTICIAN AND THE (SUBJECT MATTER) SCIENTIST

STARMAP WILL FOSTER SUCHRELATIONSHIPS

PAGE # PAGE # 99

STARMAP’S FUNDING ALLOCATION(ALL 12-MONTH BASIS)

DIRECTOR - 0.60 FTEDIRECTOR - 0.60 FTE

FACULTY - 0.75 FTEFACULTY - 0.75 FTE

GRADUATE STUDENTS - 3 FTE GRADUATE STUDENTS - 3 FTE

POST DOCTORAL FELLOWS - 2 FTEPOST DOCTORAL FELLOWS - 2 FTE

STAFF 1.00 FTE - 2 YEARS, ONLYSTAFF 1.00 FTE - 2 YEARS, ONLY

AMPLE FUNDS FOR COLLABORATIONAMPLE FUNDS FOR COLLABORATION& PROFESSIONAL TRAVEL& PROFESSIONAL TRAVEL

SUBCONTRACTORS ( $185K $120K)SUBCONTRACTORS ( $185K $120K)

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STARMAP PROJECTS

COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATACOMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATASETS - JENNIFER HOETINGSETS - JENNIFER HOETING

LOCAL ESTIMATION - JAY BREIDTLOCAL ESTIMATION - JAY BREIDT

INDICATOR DEVELOPMENT - DAVEINDICATOR DEVELOPMENT - DAVETHEOBALD THEOBALD

OUTREACH - SCOTT URQUHARTOUTREACH - SCOTT URQUHART

ADMINISTRATION &ADMINISTRATION &COORDINATION - NEXT TOPICCOORDINATION - NEXT TOPIC

PAGE # PAGE # 1111

COORDINATION

MAJOR RESPONSIBILITY OF BOTHMAJOR RESPONSIBILITY OF BOTHPROGRAM DIRECTORSPROGRAM DIRECTORS

CSU/OSU - EACH DIRECTOR IS FUNDED ON THE OTHERS’ ADMIN BUDGET

INTERCHANGE VISITSINTERCHANGE VISITS EX: STEVENS & GITELMAN AT CSU IN JANUARY THESE JOINT CONFERENCES

FREQUENT E-MAILS & PHONE TALKSFREQUENT E-MAILS & PHONE TALKS

DIRECTORS HAVE VISITEDSUBCONTRACTORS

PAGE # PAGE # 1212

COORDINATION - AT CSU

FREQUENT COMMUNICATIONFREQUENT COMMUNICATIONAMONG ALL PI’SAMONG ALL PI’S

SEVERAL JOINT PLANNING MEETINGS LAST FALL

SEMINAR LAST SPRING BACK AND FORTH WITH LANDSCAPE

ECOLOGY INTERACTION WITH AQUATIC

BIOLOGISTS POFF & BLEDSOE AT CSUPOFF & BLEDSOE AT CSU STAR MEETING IN DENVER NEXT WEEKSTAR MEETING IN DENVER NEXT WEEK

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COORDINATION - EXTERNAL TO CSU/OSU

COLLABORATOR COMMUNITIESCOLLABORATOR COMMUNITIES ESTUARINE & GREAT LAKES INDICATOR

DEVELOPMENT (EaGLes) ATTEND “ALL HANDS MEETINGS”ATTEND “ALL HANDS MEETINGS”

PRESENT INFORMATION ABOUT OUR PROGRAMS

EMAP - PERSONAL CONTACT SOURCE OF NEW PROBLEMS SOURCE OF NEW PROBLEMS

EX: ACID RAIN REPORT TO CONGRESS - TRENDAT PROBABILITY & “HAND-PICKED”

SITES

» OPPORTUNITIES FOR PROJECTS 1 & 2

PAGE # PAGE # 1414

COORDINATION - EXTERNAL TO CSU/OSUCONTINUED

COLLABORATOR COMMUNITIESCOLLABORATOR COMMUNITIES SUB-STATE REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SUB-STATE REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL

AUTHORITIESAUTHORITIES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATER

RESEARCH PROJECT (SCCWRP) SAN FRANCISCO ESTUARY INSTITUTE

EPA PERSONNELEPA PERSONNEL REGIONS 8, 9 & 10 HEADQUARTERS

» OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

» OFFICE OF WATER

» TRIBAL SCIENTIFIC COUNCIL

PAGE # PAGE # 1515

COORDINATION - EXTERNAL TO CSU/OSUCONTINUED 2

COLLABORATOR COMMUNITIESCOLLABORATOR COMMUNITIES EPA PERSONNELEPA PERSONNEL

… EPA LABS

» WESTERN ECOLOGY LAB - CORVALLIS

» MIDWESTERN ECOLOGY LAB - DULUTH, MN

» EASTERN ECOLOGY LAB

» ECOSYSTEMS RESEARCH DIVISION

» LAS VEGAS LAB - LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY STATE PERSONNEL

» MAINLY AT OSU, SO FAR

PAGE # PAGE # 1616

A CROSS-PROJECT THRUST

FLOW AND FLOW STATUS FLOW AND FLOW STATUS

EPA DIRECTIVES TO STATES ANDEPA DIRECTIVES TO STATES ANDTRIBES TRIBES

PROBABILITY SAMPLING

OBSTACLES TO ACCURATEOBSTACLES TO ACCURATEPROBABILITY-BASED SAMPLINGPROBABILITY-BASED SAMPLING

AVAILABLE DATAAVAILABLE DATA

MODELS UNDER DEVELOPMENTMODELS UNDER DEVELOPMENT MULTIPLE PROJECTS IN STARMAP

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FLOW AND FLOW STATUS

FLOW - AN INDICATOR OF BASEFLOW - AN INDICATOR OF BASEFLOW QUANTITYFLOW QUANTITY

FLOW STATUSFLOW STATUS PERENNIAL NON-PERENNIAL

CLIENT: STATE AND TRIBAL WATERCLIENT: STATE AND TRIBAL WATERQUALITY AGENCIESQUALITY AGENCIES

REPORTING UNDER 305b OF CLEANWATER ACT

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IMPORTANT LEGISLATION

CLEAN WATER ACT (CWA), AS AMENDED

Section 305-Water Quality InventorySection 305-Water Quality Inventory (b) Biennial Report to Congress

Summary of info provided by States & TribesSummary of info provided by States & Tribes

Section 303 - Water QualitySection 303 - Water QualityStandards and Implementation Standards and Implementation

PlansPlans (d) Identifying Degraded Waters

Plans to Eliminate Degrading FactorsPlans to Eliminate Degrading Factors Computation of “Total Daily Maximum Loads”

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EPA’s CURRENT GUIDANCE for 305b

States and territories are encouraged to use probabilistic designs for water quality assessments and to include reports of these assessments with their Integrated Reports.

SOURCE: The Total Maximun Load (TMDL) SOURCE: The Total Maximun Load (TMDL) Program, Office of Water, November Program, Office of Water, November

19,19,2001. Memorandum concerning “20022001. Memorandum concerning “2002Integrated Water Quality Monitoring Integrated Water Quality Monitoring

andandAssessment Report Guidance”Assessment Report Guidance”

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STATES ARE BEGINNING TO USE PROBABILITY-BASED SITE SELECTION

States adopting EMAP designs

States evaluating EMAP designs

States considering EMAP designs

Courtesy of Steve Paulsen, Courtesy of Steve Paulsen, EPAEPA

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A MAJOR PROBLEM FOR PROBABILITY-BASED SAMPLING OF

WATER BODIES PROBABILITY-BASED SELECTION OF

SITES RELIES ON A “FRAME” OR LIST OF POTENTIAL SITES

THE NATIONAL HYDROGRAPHYDATASET (NHD) - BASED ON “BLUELINES” ON USGS MAPS IS THE

ONLYPRACTICALLY AVAILABLE FRAMEMATERIALS

MAJOR PROBLEM = FRAME ERRORSMAJOR PROBLEM = FRAME ERRORS

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FRAME ERRORSTO BE DOCUMENTED SHORTLY

WATER BODY SIZEWATER BODY SIZE IMPORTANCE OF SIZE WILL BE

ADDRESSED SHORTLY

FLOW STATUS -- re PERENNIALFLOW STATUS -- re PERENNIAL IDENTIFIED AS PERENNIAL, BUT NOT

WASTES EFFORT OF FIELD CREWSWASTES EFFORT OF FIELD CREWS

IDENTIFIED AS NON-PERENNIAL, BUT REALLY IS PERENNIAL

MISSED RESOURCEMISSED RESOURCE INACCURATE ASSESSMENTINACCURATE ASSESSMENT

PAGE # PAGE # 2323

EMAP-West Stream/river Length(km ± 95% CI)

from Peck, et al (2002) - EMAP symposium

FFrraammee SSoouurrcceeRRFF33 FFrraammee

SSiizzeeEvaluated“Perennial”

EvaluatedNon- perennial

RF3 CodedPerennial

(Perennial Survey)

656,706501,06015,590

128,32812,709

RF3 CodedNon- perennial

(Non- perennial Survey)

1,628,980112,53721,278

1,469,27763,515

Total2,285,686 613,597

26,3781,597,605

64,774

PAGE # PAGE # 2424

EMAP-West Stream/river Length(km ± 95% CI)

from Peck, et al (2002) - EMAP symposium

FFrraammee SSoouurrcceeRRFF33 FFrraammee

SSiizzeeEvaluated“Perennial”

EvaluatedNon- perennial

RF3 CodedPerennial

(Perennial Survey)

656,706501,06015,590

128,32812,709

RF3 CodedNon- perennial

(Non- perennial Survey)

1,628,980112,53721,278

1,469,27763,515

Total2,285,686 613,597

26,3781,597,605

64,774

PAGE # PAGE # 2525

EMAP-West Stream/river Length(km ± 95% CI)

from Peck, et al (2002) - EMAP symposium

FFrraammee SSoouurrcceeRRFF33 FFrraammee

SSiizzeeEvaluated“Perennial”

EvaluatedNon- perennial

RF3 CodedPerennial

(Perennial Survey)

656,706501,06015,590

128,32812,709

RF3 CodedNon- perennial

(Non- perennial Survey)

1,628,980112,53721,278

1,469,27763,515

Total2,285,686 613,597

26,3781,597,605

64,774

PAGE # PAGE # 2626

COMMENTS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF WATER BODY SIZES - SO WHAT

FOR “USE” AREA IS IMPORTANTFOR “USE” AREA IS IMPORTANT RECREATION REARING HABITAT - SHRIMP TO GEESE DOMESTIC & INDUSTRIAL WATER

USERS - EVEN VOLUME

FOR PRESERVATION OFFOR PRESERVATION OF“BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY”“BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY”NUMBERS ARE VERY IMPORTANTNUMBERS ARE VERY IMPORTANT

PAGE # PAGE # 2727

COMMENTS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF WATER BODY SIZES - SO WHAT II

PROBABILITY-BASED SAMPLING HAS PROBABILITY-BASED SAMPLING HAS TO BALANCE NUMBER AGAINST SIZETO BALANCE NUMBER AGAINST SIZE REGARDLESS OF WATER BODY TYPE THIS PRECLUDES SIMPLE RANDOM

SAMPLING

CONSEQUENCE: VARIABLE CONSEQUENCE: VARIABLE PROBABILITY/VARIABLE DENSITYPROBABILITY/VARIABLE DENSITYSAMPLING HAS TO BE USED SAMPLING HAS TO BE USED

PAGE # PAGE # 2828

PREREQUISITE FOR ACCURATE SITE SELECTION

AN ACCURATE FRAME SPATIALLY (REGIONAL) CONSISTENCY CRITICAL FOR CREDIBILITY AMONG

WATER RESOURCE MANAGERS

THE NEED:GOOD PREDICTORS OF THE NEED:GOOD PREDICTORS OF WATER BODY SIZE PERENNIAL STATUS

PAGE # PAGE # 2929

PREDICTION OF WATERBODY SIZE

INITIAL EFFORT - STREAMS - MAHAINITIAL EFFORT - STREAMS - MAHA OVERCOMES LIMITATIONS OF

STRAHLER ORDERSTRAHLER ORDER REGIONAL INCONSISTENCIES DUE TOREGIONAL INCONSISTENCIES DUE TO

VARIABLE DENSITY OF “BLUE LINES”VARIABLE DENSITY OF “BLUE LINES”ON USGS MAPS (SEE MAP ON THE ON USGS MAPS (SEE MAP ON THE

WALL)WALL)

INITIAL EFFORT: GET WATERSHED AREA PREDICTOR CHARACTERISTICS GAUGED FLOW (PERHAPS ONLY “BASE FLOW”)

PAGE # PAGE # 3030

PREDICTION OF PERENNIAL STATUS

IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE DATAIMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE DATA EMAP WESTERN PILOT STUDY

SURVEY OF TRACES LABELED “NON-SURVEY OF TRACES LABELED “NON-PERENNIAL”PERENNIAL”

100 PER WESTERN STATE; DATA NOW AT CSU STARMAP NOW COMPILING ASSOCIATED

LANDSCAPE INFORMATION

SITE EVALUATION FROM SITES SELECTED SITE EVALUATION FROM SITES SELECTED ON TRACES LABELED “PERENNIAL”ON TRACES LABELED “PERENNIAL”

ON GOING WORK IN EMAP-WEST

PAGE # PAGE # 3131

PREDICTION OF PERENNIAL STATUS:OTHER POTENTIAL DATA SOURCES

MAIA - ORIGINAL SAMPLINGMAIA - ORIGINAL SAMPLINGINCLUDED ALL TRACES INCLUDED ALL TRACES

REGARDLESS OF PERENNIAL CLASS

OTHER SURVEYSOTHER SURVEYS REGION 7 VARIOUS STATES

OTHER SURVEYS POSSIBLE IFOTHER SURVEYS POSSIBLE IFMETHODOLOGY WORKSMETHODOLOGY WORKS

PAGE # PAGE # 3232

EXPECTED OUTPUTS

MODELS TO INCORPORATE INTOMODELS TO INCORPORATE INTOSITE SELECTION PROGRAMSSITE SELECTION PROGRAMS

MORE GENERALLY, STATISTICAL MORE GENERALLY, STATISTICAL METHODS TO SUPPORT THOSEMETHODS TO SUPPORT THOSEMODELSMODELS

A RANGE OF GIS TOOLS USEFULA RANGE OF GIS TOOLS USEFULFOR AQUATIC MONITORINGFOR AQUATIC MONITORING

CONTINUEDCONTINUED

PAGE # PAGE # 3333

EXPECTED OUTPUTS

......

AN EXPERIENCE BASE AN EXPERIENCE BASE FUTURE GENERATIONS OF

ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICIANS ORIENTED TOWARD AQUATIC SCIENCESORIENTED TOWARD AQUATIC SCIENCES

PAGE # PAGE # 3434

QUESTIONS ARE WELCOME

PAGE # PAGE # 3535

NEXT SPEAKER

JENNIFER HOETING JENNIFER HOETING LEADER OF PROJECT 1

COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATASETS

PAGE # PAGE # 3636

DISTRIBUTION OF LAKE SIZES IN THE CONTERMINOUS US

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1 to 5 5 to 10 10 to 50 50 to 500 500 to 5000 >5000

LAKE SIZE CLASS

PR

OP

OR

TIO

N O

F L

AK

ES

(#

)

PAGE # PAGE # 3737

DISTRIBUTION OF AREA OF LAKES IN THE CONTERMINOUS US BY LAKE SIZE

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

1 to 5 5 to 10 10 to 50 50 to 500 500 to 5000 >5000

LAKE SIZE CLASS

PR

OP

OR

TIO

N O

F L

AK

ES

(A

RE

A)

PAGE # PAGE # 3838

CONTRAST OF THE DISTRIBUTIONS OF AREA AND NUMBER OF LAKES IN THE CONTERMINOUS

US BY LAKE SIZE

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1 to 5 5 to 10 10 to 50 50 to 500 500 to 5000 >5000

LAKE SIZE CLASS

PR

OP

OR

TIO

N O

F L

AK

ES

PAGE # PAGE # 3939

COMMENTS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF WATER BODY SIZES

INFORMATION PROVIDED APPLIES INFORMATION PROVIDED APPLIES TO ALL LAKES IN THE “LOWER 48”TO ALL LAKES IN THE “LOWER 48” A SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION OCCURS IN

ALL PARTS OF THE US

OTHER KINDS OF WATER BODIESOTHER KINDS OF WATER BODIES SAME KIND OF PATTERN

STREAMS & RIVERSSTREAMS & RIVERS WETLANDSWETLANDS ESTUARIESESTUARIES