Design-based/Model-assisted Survey Methodology for Aquatic Resources

Design-based/Model-assisted Survey Methodology

for Aquatic Resources

Don L. Stevens, Jr.Presented at

THIRD ANNUAL CONFERENCE:

STATISTICAL SURVEY DESIGN AND ANALYSIS

FOR AQUATIC RESOURCES

Department of Statistics

Colorado State University

September 10-11, 2004

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This presentation was developed under STAR Research Assistance Agreement No. CR82-9096-01 Program on Designs and Models for Aquatic Resource Surveys awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to Oregon State University. It has not been subjected to the Agency's review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency, and no official endorsement should be inferred

R82-9096-01

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Discussion OutlineState of the Program

• Personnel• Research

–Preview of Presentations

• Outreach / Tech Transfer–Summary of Activities–Implications

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State of the Program

• Personnel– OSU Faculty

• Alix Gitelman– Primarily supported by STARMAP

• Alan Herlihy– Jointly supported by STARMAP & STAR program on watershed

classification

• Virginia Lesser– Director of Survey Research Center– PI on Parametric Model Assisted Survey Methods

• Don Stevens – Jointly supported by STARMAP– PI on Survey Design Methodology & Integration & Outreach

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• Personnel– CSU Faculty

• Scott Urquhart• Jay Breidt

– PI on Non- Parametric Model Assisted Survey Methods

• Jointly supported by STARMAP

– ISU Faculty • Jean Opsomer

– UW Faculty• Loveday Conquest• Jean-Yves (Pip) Courbois

– Former post-doc, now with NOAA-Fisheries

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• Personnel– OSU Post-Doctoral Fellows

• Ruben Smith • Breda Munoz-Hernandez

– Leaving DAMARS for RTI this fall

– OSU Research Associates• Dan Dalthorpe

– Joining DAMARS this fall

• Jeannie Sifneos– Jointly supported by STAR program on watershed classification

– CSU Post-Doctoral Fellow• M. Giovanna Ranalli

– Jointly supported by STARMAP

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• Personnel– OSU Graduate Students

• Cynthia Cooper Leigh Ann Harrod (leaving DAMARS for GE)

• Kathy Georgitis Susan Hornsby (EPA Region 9 Trainee)

– UW Graduate Students• Rebecca Buchanan

– USFWS Patuxent Labs intern

– Incoming OSU Graduate Students• Bill Gaemon Jessica Merville

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Dual Program Objectives

• RESEARCH: To support advances in (statistics) and hierarchical survey design and analysis and spatial and temporal modeling

• OUTREACH: To develop and extend the expertise on design and analysis to States and Tribes

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State of the ProgramResearch

• Research is driven by issues that arise in aquatic monitoring – Indicator development/Monitoring

Design/Analysis (huge area)

• Research topics– Identified in RFA + our experience– Arise from collaboration with EPA, State, other

STAR researchers

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• Research presentations will describe on-going research projects– Some will be near-publication status– Some will be snapshots of current progress– Some will be problem descriptions & proposed

approaches

• Comments, questions, advice are invited in all cases

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• Three projects:– Survey Design Methodology for Aquatic

Resources– Parametric Model-Assisted Survey Methods– Nonparametric Model-Assisted Survey

Estimation for Aquatic Resources

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Survey Design Methodology for Aquatic Resources

• Don Stevens, PI• Pip Courbois• Kathi Georgitis• Susan Hornsby

• Loveday Conquest• Ruben Smith• Cynthia Cooper• Rebecca Buchanan

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Survey Design Methodology

• Survey Design– Variance estimation

• Model-assisted approaches

• Evaluation of alternative estimators for spatially balanced designs

– Maintaining spatially balanced designs• Design around existing points

• Modify panel structure of an existing design

– Design optimization

– Incorporating existing information

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• Survey Analysis– Trend estimation using panel designs– Modeling & displaying spatial pattern– Analyzing multi-scale, hierarchical designs– Incorporating non-design data in analysis

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• Presentations for this meeting:– Comparison of Variance Estimators for Two-

dimensional, Spatially-Structured Sample Designs. Susan Hornsby and Don L. Stevens, Jr.

– Comparison of Design-Based and Model-Based Techniques for Selecting Spatially Balanced Samples of Environmental Resources. Don L. Stevens, Jr.

– Characterizing Design-Based Properties of a Spatial Sample to Quantify Design-Based Variance of Model-based Estimators. Cynthia Cooper

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• Presentations for this meeting:– Sampling Strategies for Chinook-salmon Spawning

Populations. Jean-Yves (Pip) Courbois,

– Spatio-Temporal Modeling of the Abundance of Spawning Coho in Oregon Coastal Streams. Ruben A. Smith and Don L. Stevens, Jr.,

– What is a Multi-Scale Analysis? Implications for Modeling Presence/Absence of Bird Species. Kathi Georgitis, Alix Gitelman,, and Nick P. Danz

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• Posters for this meeting:– A Cost Analysis for Incorporating Human Judgment

into Ecological Sampling. Rebecca A Buchanan and Loveday L. Conquest, University of Washington and Jean-Yves Courbois, NOAA-Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Sciences Center, Seattle, WA (This poster was displayed and discussed at the Research Symposium of the UW's Center for Water and Watershed Studies, and was judged the runner-up for the Best Poster.)

– One-dimensional Point Processes in Ecology. Jean-Yves Courbois, NOAA-Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Sciences Center, Seattle, WA

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• Posters for this meeting:– Defining Scale and Landscape Classes: Implications for

Modeling Species Abundance. Kathi Georgitis, Alix Gitelman, Don L. Stevens Jr., Department of Statistics, OSU, Nick P. Danz, and JoAnn M. Hanowski, NRRC- UMD

– Two-stage Sampling Designs for Birds in Great Lakes Wetlands. Ron Regal, Dept of Mathematics and Statistics,UMD, Don L. Stevens, Jr., Dept of Statistics, OSU, Nick P. Danz and JoAnn M. Hanowski, NRRC-UMD, and Robert W. Howe, Department of Natural and Applied Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Green Bay

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• Manuscripts– 3 published (JASA, JABES, TIES proceedings)– 1 in press Environmetrics– 1 submitted to CJF– 5 in preparation

• Presentations– 8 (TIES, Graybill Conference, NABS, workshops)

• Posters– 3 (TIES, UW Research Symposium)

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Parametric Model Assisted Survey Methods for

Environmental Surveys• Virginia Lesser, PI

• Breda Munoz

• Leigh Ann Harrod

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Parametric Model Assisted Survey Methods

• Imputation and adjustment – Draws on spatial structure + ancillary data– Treats non-ignorable missing data

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• Presentations this meeting– Use of Estimating Equations in Survey Methodology.

Leigh Ann Harrod and Virginia Lesser

– Adjustment Procedures to Account for Non-Ignorable Missing Data in Environmental Surveys. Breda Munoz and Virginia Lesser

– A Weighting Class Adjustment Estimator for the Total Under a Stratified Sampling Design in a Continuous Domain. Breda Munoz and Virginia Lesser

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• Manuscripts– 1 submitted to Environmetrics– 2 in preparation

• Presentations– 1 at TIES

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Nonparametric Model Assisted Survey Estimation for Aquatic

Resources (CSU Project 2)• F. Jay Breidt, PI• Jean Opsomer• Giovanna Ranalli • Mark Delorey• Alicia Johnson• Siobhan Everson-Stewart• Plus others not supported by either DAMARS or

STARMAP

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Nonparametric Model Assisted Survey Estimation

• Combine landscape-level auxiliary data with field observations.

• Local polynomial survey regression estimation

• cdf estimation

• Non-parametric estimation using penalized splines

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Non-Parametric Model Assisted Survey Methods

• Presentations this meeting– Nonparametric Survey Regression Estimation

Using Penalized Splines. F. Jay Breidt, Jean Opsomer, Giovanna Ranalli and Mark Delorey

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• Posters this meeting– Distribution Function Estimation in Small

Areas for Aquatic Resources. Mark J. Delorey, Department of Statistics, CSU

– Nonparametric, Model-Assisted Estimation for a Two-Stage Sampling Design. Mark Delorey and F. Jay Breidt, Department of Statistics, CSU

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• Manuscripts– 4 published (JABES, Survey Methodology,

proceedings)– 5 submitted (JASA,Biometrics, Can. J. Stat.,Ap.

Stat. (JRSSC)– 10 in preparation

• Presentations– 8 presentations (EMAP symposium, ENAR,

seminars)

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Outreach/Tech Transfer

• Both DAMARS & STARMAP have same tech transfer objectives, but have different emphases:– STARMAP -- learning materials– DAMARS -- demonstration projects

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State of the ProgramOutreach

• Success in tech transfer depends on having States, Tribes, (& EPA) use techniques & tools– Foster client use of both design & analysis tools

• “build it & they will come” doesn’t work

• Need active participation in target projects

– Cooperative agreement• Work with EPA

• Work on EPA-sponsored projects

• Work on projects share EPA goals

• Use data generated by EPA projects

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State of the Program Outreach

• Collaboration that brings statistical perspective to multi-disciplinary research team– Source for new challenges that drives the

development of new methodology & theory– Requires high level of commitment– Substantial time requirement– Example: GLEI, an EaGLE STAR Program

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Collaboration with GLEIGreat Lakes Environmental Indicators

• Kathi Georgitis visited GLEI in November– Identified opportunities for collaboration

• where GLEI supplies data & ecological insight• DAMARS statistical insight

– Working with Alix Gitelman(OSU), Nick Danz(GLEI), JoAnn Hanowski (GLEI)

– Presentation & poster

• Ron Regal (GLEI/ UMD) – Optimal allocation for 2-stage sampling in wetlands– See poster by Regal, et al.

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State of the Program Outreach

• Demonstration Projects– Archetypes used as models– Real-life aquatic monitoring by real State

agencies– Push the envelope of State-level monitoring– Design to State-articulated needs– Make them succeed!

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Outreach- Demonstration

• San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program for Trace Substances (RMP)

• West Coast Tidal Wetland Monitoring and Assessment Venture (CRAM)

• Sampling Coho salmon in Oregon coastal streams (ODFW)– Aquatic Monitoring in the Northwest

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RMP

• Designed monitoring plan for San Francisco Bay– Pulse of the Estuary, 2000 Update– Re-design team: SFEI, USEPA Region 9, DAMARS,

USGS, others– Nice example of using prior information to guide

design

• Implemented in 2001– Rotating panel GRTS – Intensity varies by Bay segment– Separate designs for water column & sediment

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RMP

• Re-design report out for peer review

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CRAMCalifornia Rapid Assessment Method

• Funded by EPA

• Joint effort– SFEI –CCC –WED– SCCWRP –DAMARS –Region 9

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CRAMCalifornia Rapid Assessment Method

• Modeled on Ohio RAM• Extended to cover CA

– Salt marshes– Tidal influenced

• DAMARS (Stevens) represented on the Core Development Team– Metric/indicator development– Planning for verification/validation study– Pilot assessment

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CRAM Metrics

• Landscape Context– % of AA w/Buffer– Ave Buffer Width– Buffer Condition

• Hydrology– Source of Water– Hydroperiod– Upland connection

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CRAM Metrics• Abiotic Structure

– Abiotic Patch Richness– Topographic Complexity– Sediment Integrity

• • Biotic Structure

– Organic Matter Accumulation– Biotic Patch Richness– Vertical Structure– Interspersion/Zonation– Plant Comm Integrity

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CRAM Metrics

• Stressor Index– Hydrology– Abiotic Structure– Biotic Structure– Adjacent Land Use

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Stressor Index• Hydrology

– Point Sources (POTW or other non-stormwater)– Non-point Source Discharges (urban runoff, ag drainage)– Flow diversions or inflows– Dams (reservoirs, detention basins, recharge basins)– Flow obstructions (culverts, paved stream crossings)– Weir/drop structure, tide gates– Dredged inlet/channel – Engineered channel (riprap, armored channel bank, bed)– Ditching – Dike/levees – Groundwater extraction

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ODFW

• Focus is on Coho Salmon– High visibility issue in NW (OR, WA, CA,

BLM, BPA, USFS, USFWS, NOAA, USEPA)– Rotating panel GRTS is basic sampling design

for The Oregon Plan for Salmon & Watersheds– ODFW, OWEB, ODEQ have become our

advocates

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ODFW

• Ideal test bed for design & analysis – Historical data, both probability & convenience

– Dynamic frame

– Missing data, ignorable & non-ignorable

– Ancillary data

– Rotating panel through time

– Small area estimation

• Primary question: Are management efforts having an impact?

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ODFW

• Oregon Plan for Salmon & Watersheds has been in place for over 5 years– Major synthesis/analysis effort is currently

underway– New statistical questions are being raised

• How to account for finite support of point sample

• Appropriate role of reference data

• Appropriate metric for spatial covariance

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Pacific salmon on the Washougal River, in Washington.photo by Tom and Pat Leeson

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Pacific Rim Salmon

Monitoring Strategy for the

Conservation of Pacific SalmonState of the Salmon

a joint program of Ecotrust and the Wild Salmon Center

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Alaska Department of Fish and GameBonneville Power AdministrationFisheries and Oceans CanadaHokkaido Institute of Environmental SciencesHokkaido Fish HatcheryIdaho Fish and GameKhabarovsk Salmon LaboratoryKamchatka Salmon Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Use ProgramOregon Department of Fish and Wildlife Oregon State UniversitySalmon Recovery Funding Board USDA Forest ServiceUS Environmental Protection AgencyUS Geological SurveyWashington Department of Fish and WildlifeWild Salmon CenterYakima Klickitat Fisheries Project

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Alaska Department of Fish and GameBonneville Power AdministrationFisheries and Oceans CanadaHokkaido Institute of Environmental SciencesHokkaido Fish HatcheryIdaho Fish and GameKhabarovsk Salmon LaboratoryKamchatka Salmon Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Use ProgramOregon Department of Fish and Wildlife Oregon State University Salmon Recovery Funding Board USDA Forest ServiceUS Environmental Protection AgencyUS Geological SurveyWashington Department of Fish and WildlifeWild Salmon CenterYakima Klickitat Fisheries Project

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Pacific Rim Salmon key elements

• A sampling design that imposes three hierarchical levels of organization uniquely defined by biology, space, and time (Level 1, Level 2, Level 3).

• An approach that implements sampling within each Level using fixed and rotating panels tailored to provide statistically valid assessments of status and trends.

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• An approach that, to the greatest extent possible, provides for a seamless integration of existing monitoring programs with new monitoring initiatives.

• A focus on four key parameters (distribution, diversity, abundance, and productivity) that can provide an integrated measure of salmon population viability.

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• An effort to forge synergistic relationships with in-country fisheries management and conservation entities, as well as international organizations focusing on conservation of salmon and their ecosystems.

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Columbia Systemwide Monitoring and Evaluation Program

(CSMEP)• Collaboratively inventory existing

monitoring data relevant to evaluating the status of salmon, steelhead, bull trout in the Columbia Basin

• Collaboratively design improved monitoring and evaluation methods

• Coordinate state and tribal implementation of pilot or large scale monitoring programs

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CSMEP• Lead agency: Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife

Authority • Co-sponsors: NOAA-F USFWS, WDFW, ODFW,

IDFG, MFWP, Fish Passage Center, Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (Nez Perce, Yakima, Umatilla, Warm Springs Tribes) and the Colville Tribes

• Also involved: Northwest Power and Conservation Council & Pacific Northwest Aquatic Monitoring Partnership

Documents

Design-based/Model-assisted Survey Methodology for Aquatic Resources